Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"

[JennAngel9]

Keep in mind that whether or not it is fresh in the cabins, wouldn't mean it was fresh in the rooms where crew lived, worked, sorted meds, prepared foods, etc.

The current research suggests that it's possible that the virus can travel by air in unusual circumstances but that it is MUCH MORE LIKELY the people got sick on board from contact with crew, items that had been dropped in their rooms, and according to the infectious disease expert, potentially even interacting with the medical staff that came to get consent forms and provide care-- as they were not following proper procedures and passing items between many quarantined passengers, when we know the virus can live on surfaces.

[cruiserchuck]

11 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

I did. That was the first video the VP did and it is accurate in that some air in cabins is recirculated through the in cabin cooler to allow the cabin temperature to be adjusted to suit. However in subsequent videos he reiterated the fresh air aspect, noting the the flow had been increased.

 

And personally I believe chengkp75's facts over your opinion.

 

https://www.facebook.com/PrincessCruises/videos/783739805479528/

 

Beginning at 1:46, he discusses that the air is partially recirculated in cabins and public areas.  If the air was only recirculated with air from the same cabin, I am confident he would have said so.  So I believe the Executive Vice President of Princess over chengkp75 or you.

[maryann2]

An update from David Abel.

They have arrived in a lovely hospital and they feel they are well taken care of.

No wifi so will not be in touch. His data provider charged him 57 pounds so won't be using that again.

Edited February 20, 2020 by maryann2

[JennAngel9]

Thanks for sharing the update.  I'm wishing them the best and it sounds like they caught it before the critical stage.  Sending prayers for them and everybody else in danger.  🙏

[ceilidh1]

1 hour ago, Germancruiser said:

That the passengers of the Diamond Princess got infected did not come as a surprise- even David and Sally Abel´s postive test was no surprise- they sat with a postiv tested passenger for two weeks at the same table!

 

Yet the wife of the table mate, who likely shared more than just a dinner table with him (they were on their honeymoon, after all) tested negative! The same is true for the radio owner couple and their friends. Their spouses were both negative...

 

This is a very strange virus!

[ar1950]

18 minutes ago, ceilidh1 said:

Yet the wife of the table mate, who likely shared more than just a dinner table with him (they were on their honeymoon, after all) tested negative! The same is true for the radio owner couple and their friends. Their spouses were both negative...

 

This is a very strange virus!

 

FWIW, several pages back someone who either worked in or headed up a testing lab explained that the testing process is not an exact science when it comes to results.  They said a lot of things can, and do, go wrong during the process of evaluating the samples.  The upshot was that the tests are not 100% accurate.  Seems scant comfort for those of us who are hoping for a containment of this virus.  Not being negative about the situation, but, just hoping that my cautious optimism will be the winner of the day with this one.  

Edited February 20, 2020 by ar1950

[JennAngel9]

In case there was any doubt about whether or not the passengers on the ship were exposed to new routes of infection, it was just announced that two additional Japanese health workers who were on the ship have been diagnosed with Coronavirus.  

 

https://twitter.com/COVID_19NEWS/status/1230392526617497600?s=20

[fragilek]

8 minutes ago, AlyssaJames said:

How many negative tests did each person who was disembarked receive?

Certainly for any I have followed just the 1.

However,  note that the guidance I quoted is for EU and is open to a bit interpretation/scope of when 2 tests are required. ( in the case Dp passengers I think it would be 2 and is probably why they will quarantined and retested). I do not know the Japanese guidelines.

I put this up to show that the medical community is fully aware that this test is based on viral load and not on there being any virus at all . ( most virus tests are)

 But this virus differs in that the viral load can stay very low ( undetectable) for longer than its counterparts. Thus the test is less reliable than some others.

 

Edited February 20, 2020 by fragilek
More info

[caribill]

8 hours ago, bluesea321 said:

 

Think about what has happened for a second. This tragedy started because ONE passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong passed the virus to others and the result after 2 weeks of "quarantine" is that 1 in 5 passengers became infected, 1 in 5 or 20% and likely more by tomorrow.  And now we are supposed to take it for granted that none of those leaving the ship will contaminate others.... 

Seems like a long stretch to me.

 

To be honest, we only know that he was the only passenger at that time who was found to have the virus.

 

There may have been others that had it and left the ship not knowing it, but that is something we will never know,

[caribill]

3 hours ago, Germancruiser said:

As I mentioned already. The purpose of the quarantaine was to keep the virus to spread into Japan- if that really worked- we will see! That the passengers of the Diamond Princess got infected did not come as a surprise- even David and Sally Abel´s postive test was no surprise- they sat with a postiv tested passenger for two weeks at the same table!

 

 

Who tested negative multiple times in the hospital and has now been discharged from the hospital.

[fragilek]

10 minutes ago, Two4Sea said:

Thanks for trying Allyssa. Too many people react with faulty facts or without a practical sense of how much can be done about them. I too was just trying to get people to pause and think of what could apply. For instance:

-people opening balcony dividers would have easily been spotted by their posts and end up being treated the same as those with regular connecting cabins

-just because WHO or ECDC recommend a test protocol doesn't mean it's the best solution when the supply of test facilities has been overwhelmed.

 

Bill

 

 I fully agree that Japan was overwhelmed and the 2nd test before exiting the ship would be a push too far. I also expect the WhO knew this too. That is why people are being removed back to their own counties for the 2nd test. However, I think Japan could/ should have then followed suit to retest the remaining passenger ( most of whom will be Japanese) in 14 days and should have quarantined them on shore in the mean time.

 

[fragilek]

7 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

Who tested negative multiple times in the hospital and has now been discharged from the hospital.

Yip a really weird virus. 

[paphoslady]

1 minute ago, fragilek said:

I fully agree that Japan was overwhelmed and the 2nd test before exiting the ship would be a push too far. I also expect the WhO knew this too. That is why people are being removed back to their own counties for the 2nd test. However, I think Japan could/ should have then followed suit to retest the remaining passenger ( most of whom will be Japanese) in 14 days and should have quarantined them on shore in the mean time.

Everyone should have been tested on Day 1 as soon as the ship was put into quarantine to determine who was positive and who was negative. Positive passengers should have been removed immediately and put into isolation with their cabin mates. Unfortunately with so many people on board it is clear that the Japanese could't cope with testing that many people and that is where the problem started. Many people seem to have the virus but not show any symptoms and it is difficult to differentiate from a cold, seasonal flu and coronavirus as many of the early symptoms are very similar. I'm not surprised that Sally and David tested positive so did their table mate some time ago now. I think its important to stress that this is a NEW virus, the medical profession does not understand a lot about it at the moment and mistakes will be made until they know what they are dealing with! 

[fragilek]

1 hour ago, fragilek said:

Certainly for any I have followed just the 1.

However,  note that the guidance I quoted is for EU and is open to a bit interpretation/scope of when 2 tests are required. ( in the case Dp passengers I think it would be 2 and is probably why they will quarantined and retested). I do not know the Japanese guidelines.

I put this up to show that the medical community is fully aware that this test is based on viral load and not on there being any virus at all . ( most virus tests are)

 But this virus differs in that the viral load can stay very low ( undetectable) for longer than its counterparts. Thus the test is less reliable than some others.

 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/factsheet-health-professionals-coronaviruses

This is the document that the post refers were 2 tests are recommended for some people

Edited February 20, 2020 by fragilek

[fragilek]

12 minutes ago, phil the brit said:

 

I am afraid science will never be able to either prove or dispute this now, unless some unfortunate soul takes ill before they leave the ship for their repatriation flight. ( even then the 1st result may have been a false negative)

If ill after home or after release into Japan some will claim got it on ship others will shout just as loud that it would have been from the flight with spouses/ cabin mates or from secondary source in Japan on bus plane etc.

t-Distrubtion curves ( looking at average onset to development) suggest ongoing infection for at least some of the time on board.  But that's all that can be said there is no proof either way unfortunately. 

 

 

[Farts]

3 hours ago, ar1950 said:

 

FWIW, several pages back someone who either worked in or headed up a testing lab explained that the testing process is not an exact science when it comes to results.  They said a lot of things can, and do, go wrong during the process of evaluating the samples.  The upshot was that the tests are not 100% accurate.  Seems scant comfort for those of us who are hoping for a containment of this virus.  Not being negative about the situation, but, just hoping that my cautious optimism will be the winner of the day with this one.  

It is an exact science. The issue is that we don't have enough data points on what is the most sensitive and specific test. 

 

We don't have ROC curves yet since the virus is so new. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Receiver_operating_characteristic

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Receiver_operating_characteristic#/media/File:Roccurves.png

[fragilek]

12 minutes ago, Farts said:

It is an exact science. The issue is that we don't have enough data points on what is the most sensitive and specific test. 

 

We don't have ROC curves yet since the virus is so new. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Receiver_operating_characteristic

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Receiver_operating_characteristic#/media/File:Roccurves.png

As well as the viral load issues one of the secondary issues with this test is the way it is undertaken.  The swab has to hit specific parts of the very back of nose and is not as perceived just a quick swab of nostril.  There are studies being carried out now (I know some involved) that are trying to determine the accuracy of the test procedures being undertaken.  Doing the test correctly without the full protective suits is also now being understood to put the health workers at greater risk that initially understood.  Which may account for the high numbers of healthcare workers inflicted in China (and some also who have worked testing on the diamond).  I read a paper about the technique a ex-colleague sent me a link. I will see if I can find it again and post up (if  my memory is  correct you are the doctor that posts on here so you probably have already seen it lol).

[phil the brit]

6 hours ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

From chengkp75, who posted this a few weeks ago:

"One of the main reason that the guests are quarantined in their cabins most of the day, is that the AC in cabins is not shared or recirculated.  There are two AC systems on the ship.  One takes outside air, cools it, and supplies it to the cabins, in a one way flow.  This fresh air supplied to the cabins is almost balanced by the bathroom exhaust which takes the air to the outside, in a one way flow.  The fresh air supply is slightly greater than the exhaust to keep the cabin at a slight positive pressure relative to the outside, and to the passageway outside the cabin.  The AC controlled by the cabin thermostat is air within the cabin, that is recirculated within the cabin, passing over the individual cabin's cooler."

 

 

So why are they now taping up the air vents outside each room. i don't buy the air con is not part of the problem.

[Farts]

34 minutes ago, fragilek said:

As well as the viral load issues one of the secondary issues with this test is the way it is undertaken.  The swab has to hit specific parts of the very back of nose and is not as perceived just a quick swab of nostril.  There are studies being carried out now (I know some involved) that are trying to determine the accuracy of the test procedures being undertaken.  Doing the test correctly without the full protective suits is also now being understood to put the health workers at greater risk that initially understood.  Which may account for the high numbers of healthcare workers inflicted in China (and some also who have worked testing on the diamond).  I read a paper about the technique a ex-colleague sent me a link. I will see if I can find it again and post up (if  my memory is  correct you are the doctor that posts on here so you probably have already seen it lol).

I haven't read up on that paper yet. I just read uptodate.com It's a resource that most docs use (if their hospital pays for it). 

 

But I heard about the issues with getting a good sample. When all this data is gathered months from now, we can determine what the lab sensitivities are and the real world sensitivities are. Easiest way for laymen to understand this is think of condoms and their predicted ability to prevent pregnancies with perfect use versus real world use. 

[fragilek]

 

This is now being given to those leaving the ship - the wording has apparently changed since yesterdays one - according to Yardley Wong who left the ship yesterday

 

 

Edited February 20, 2020 by fragilek

[zonacruiser25]

9 hours ago, Cruising Is Bliss said:

 

Mathew Smith tweeted today they're negative and free to go wherever they want in Japan.  He posted an image of the document. They plan to spend the next two weeks vacationing in Japan.

As of now, US has not changed prior instructions to the people who stayed on the ship and skipped the evacuation flight. If they now test negative, they have to stay in Japan another 14 days and then be retested.  If still negative they can then return to the US with no restrictions.

I can only imagine that the 14 day Japan vacation will be on their own nickel since they had the option to go home on the US offered flights.  I wish them all well and hope they remain virus free!

[K.T.B.]

MAJOR breakthrough in the mapping the virus:  https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-spike-protein-structure.html

 

Even though a vaccine is 18-24 months away, this discovery helps immeasurably.

[phil the brit]

The Diamond Princess whistleblower professor has pulled his youtube video

 

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/4bbd92cd4f91-breaking-news-japan-scholar-removes-videos-blasting-situation-on-virus-hit-ship.html?fbclid=IwAR0JLxGKc8tkXcMBQFfrPFTXK7kcdmhXGjp5tJShH28VYoAgIlmL9mwfc0s

 

Make of that what you will.

 

Edited February 20, 2020 by phil the brit
double

[voljeep]

so, as the final passengers are now or soon to be departed … what happens to the Diamond Princess , and also the staff and crew ?

[K.T.B.]

20 minutes ago, voljeep said:

so, as the final passengers are now or soon to be departed … what happens to the Diamond Princess , and also the staff and crew ?

 

I seem to recall there being an article that someone posted on here (or was it Facebook?) that the ship will go into drydock and there will be a deep cleaning and disinfecting done.  No idea for how long.

 

ETA:  Looks like April:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-cruise-ship-will-set-sail-again-in-aprilafter-a-thorough-cleaning-11582195707

Edited February 20, 2020 by K.T.B.