RCL Stock

[twangster]

6 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Social distancing definitely will not be a problem. 

 

It will actually be a pretty great time to cruise, at least in terms of lines and crowds.

 

Sailing Navigator with hurricane induced reductions was a wonderful experience. 

 

I really should move to FL.

[HaveWeMetYet]

Ticket sales for the 3rd quarter 2020 (July thru September) were about 33 million USD compared to 3.2 billion for the same quarter in 2019. Thats a 99.99 percent decline. I would imagine ticket sales since October 1st are about zero. Revenue was actually negative for the 3rd quarter as refunds paid out exceeded ticket sales. It has only gotten worse lately.

Even if the No Sail Order expires in a few days I don't see a rush to either take a cruise now or reserve one for next year.

They will have no problem achieving capacity controls. The cruises that are sailing in Europe area at about 30 percent and I doubt that is the capacity restriction. 

[Ourusualbeach]

2 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

It will actually be a pretty great time to cruise, at least in terms of lines and crowds.

 

Sailing Navigator with hurricane induced reductions was a wonderful experience. 

 

I really should move to FL.

And being north of the border I feel that I will end up missing those really empty first sailings. 
 

 

[Ocean Boy]

15 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

It will actually be a pretty great time to cruise, at least in terms of lines and crowds.

 

Sailing Navigator with hurricane induced reductions was a wonderful experience. 

 

I really should move to FL.

That is one the reasons I did not want to let go of my cruise in January on Oasis. I would have loved to experience the ship at less than full capacity. I don't know if that opportunity will ever arise again.

 

Edit: @Ourusualbeach I Saw your post above mine after I posted this. I see we have very much the same mindset on this.

[Ocean Boy]

14 minutes ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Ticket sales for the 3rd quarter 2020 (July thru September) were about 33 million USD compared to 3.2 billion for the same quarter in 2019. Thats a 99.99 percent decline. I would imagine ticket sales since October 1st are about zero. Revenue was actually negative for the 3rd quarter as refunds paid out exceeded ticket sales. It has only gotten worse lately.

Even if the No Sail Order expires in a few days I don't see a rush to either take a cruise now or reserve one for next year.

They will have no problem achieving capacity controls. The cruises that are sailing in Europe area at about 30 percent and I doubt that is the capacity restriction. 

With what RCI is presently charging now for the cruise that I cancelled in January I highly doubt anyone will be jumping on board with a new reservation. If RCI needs money this pricing strategy isn't the way to get it. 

[Ourusualbeach]

7 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

With what RCI is presently charging now for the cruise that I cancelled in January I highly doubt anyone will be jumping on board with a new reservation. If RCI needs money this pricing strategy isn't the way to get it. 

By pricing ships that they know won’t sail high they will hopefully drive the little remaining interest to ships that they plan on sailing. 

[Ocean Boy]

1 minute ago, Ourusualbeach said:

By pricing ships that they know won’t sail high they will hopefully drive the little remaining interest to ships that they plan on sailing. 

Ahhh, got it. Thanks.

[molly361]

1 hour ago, twangster said:

 

It will actually be a pretty great time to cruise, at least in terms of lines and crowds.

 

Sailing Navigator with hurricane induced reductions was a wonderful experience. 

 

I really should move to FL.

We a got to sail on one of the shortened hurricane sailings on an Oasis class ship .  It was great  AND no masks required

Edited October 29, 2020 by molly361

[parrotfeathers]

2 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

By pricing ships that they know won’t sail high they will hopefully drive the little remaining interest to ships that they plan on sailing. 

 

It would be nice if they'd just say "this is what we plan on sailing."

 

If bankruptcy is eventually declared to allow a regroup, will all those FCCs people have be worthless?   That's gotta be a ton of money right there.

[Ourusualbeach]

1 minute ago, parrotfeathers said:

 

It would be nice if they'd just say "this is what we plan on sailing."

 

If bankruptcy is eventually declared to allow a regroup, will all those FCCs people have be worthless?   That's gotta be a ton of money right there.

At this point they don’t even know so to release a definite date then have it change is not good either which is why they just go month by month. 

[Baron Barracuda]

3 hours ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Ticket sales for the 3rd quarter 2020 (July thru September) were about 33 million USD compared to 3.2 billion for the same quarter in 2019. Thats a 99.99 percent decline. I would imagine ticket sales since October 1st are about zero. Revenue was actually negative for the 3rd quarter as refunds paid out exceeded ticket sales. It has only gotten worse lately.

Even if the No Sail Order expires in a few days I don't see a rush to either take a cruise now or reserve one for next year.

They will have no problem achieving capacity controls. The cruises that are sailing in Europe area at about 30 percent and I doubt that is the capacity restriction. 

Believe you were looking at recognized revenue, not ticket sales.  RCL doesn't report $ new bookings, just the amount of customer deposits they are holding which is currently $1.8B ($350mm relating to 4q '20 sailings).   And that revenue number for 3q was actually -$33mm likely reflecting refunds of previously booked revenue.  

[taznremmy]

4 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

By pricing ships that they know won’t sail high they will hopefully drive the little remaining interest to ships that they plan on sailing. 

I just wanted to say thank you for sharing your knowledge.  I appreciate your input. 

[Biker19]

The last sentence makes this article rather suspect, but anyway......

 

Royal Caribbean is expected to grow its capacity over the next few years, according to CFO and senior vice president, Jason Liberty, who spoke on the company's third quarter earnings call.

 

The capacity increase will be driven by the new ships on order, he said, which are more efficient and offer more onboard revenue opportunities, although the rate of growth may be tempered by more opportunistic ship sales or scrapping.

 

If a ship does not fit in a brand strategically, it will be removed, Liberty said, noting that is an ongoing process.

Meanwhile, he also said that deliveries of current newbuilds will be delayed from eight to 10 months.

 

Royal Caribbean reported liquidity of $3.7 billion as of Sept. 30, 2020, and also, with all ships now moved into layup, that ship operating expenses dropped significantly from $680. 4 million for the second quarter to $308.6 million in the second quarter.

 

The overall cash burn is expected to range from $250 million to $290 million per month, including interest expenses, ship operating expenses, administrative costs, hedging costs and capital expenditures.

 

As for the ships operating, Liberty said they are operating at or about the break-even point.

[Biker19]

I mentioned this already in the Tui and MSC threads. The CDC may have missed the memo.

 

Quote

 

“We believe we can make it so you are safer on a ship than on Main Street,” said Richard Fain, Chairman and CEO of Royal Caribbean Cruises on the company’s third quarter earnings call.

 

“Europe has demonstrated that,” he added, referring to TUI Cruises, Hapag-Lloyd and Silversea having operated 70 cruises.

 

“They have demonstrated the ability to prevent (virus) spread on the ships and to deal with any incidents.”

Before the start-up in Europe this past summer, Fain said that the cruise brands had worked closely with public health experts and political authorities.

 

“TUI and Hapag-Loyd are continuing to operate, because we have seen such good results,” Fain said, adding that he is optimistic that the industry will soon have a pathway to resume operations.

 

“This may be slower than I wish, but faster than what many be assuming.”

 

With ships offering a controlled environment, Fain also noted that they can in effect be “bubbles” offering less risk than on land.

 

Meanwhile, a return would first involve trial cruises with outside observers aboard, he noted.

“The concept of trial cruises is important; we’ll have the opportunity to see the protocols in action and make adjustments.”

 

According to Jason Liberty, CFO and senior vice president, plans call for a limited return (for the North American brands) which will ramp up during 2021, focusing on key markets in North America and the Asia-Pacific region.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Biker19

[livingonthebeach]

According to this analyst, cruise line stocks aren't going to make a comeback soon.  He points out that the recent Princess pause in Australia / New Zealand indicates a further pause in US operations, increasing losses for the cruise lines.  Seven more months of not sailing could mean survival would be in jeopardy for some, he concludes. 

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/10/28/1-more-knock-on-the-cruise-line-industry/

[bobmacliberty]

15 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

By pricing ships that they know won’t sail high they will hopefully drive the little remaining interest to ships that they plan on sailing. 

 

Evil genius.  There's actually a psychological term for this, although I don't remember what it is.  The concept is that if you can't put an absolute value on something, you tend to put a relative value by comparing it to something similar.  A cruise that is 50% more expensive than normal therefore looks like a bargain compared to a cruise that it 100% more expensive than normal.

[yogimax]

RCL down another 3% today, CCL flat.

[Dennis#1]

11 minutes ago, yogimax said:

RCL down another 3% today, CCL flat.

RCL stock goes up one day and then down another day.  Currently at $52.12 per share.  Does anyone think it will get down into the $20’s again?
 

[yogimax]

18 minutes ago, Dennis#1 said:

RCL stock goes up one day and then down another day.  Currently at $52.12 per share.  Does anyone think it will get down into the $20’s again?
 

Some say yes...

Some say no...

Some say "who knows"?

 

I'm in the third category

[Hoopster95]

1 hour ago, Dennis#1 said:

RCL stock goes up one day and then down another day.  Currently at $52.12 per share.  Does anyone think it will get down into the $20’s again?
 

 

Cruise stocks have been artificially supported since this pandemic started.

The stock market as a whole has nothing to do with a "free market" system based on worth and value.

It's based on "perception" and who can b.s. the most to embellish the perceived worth.

[Dennis#1]

11 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Cruise stocks have been artificially supported since this pandemic started.

The stock market as a whole has nothing to do with a "free market" system based on worth and value.

It's based on "perception" and who can b.s. the most to embellish the perceived worth.

So true.

[bigeck]

Stocks are jumping due to CDC news of ending cruise ban

Edited October 30, 2020 by bigeck

[Ourusualbeach]

Royal, Carnival and NCL all up about the same. 
 

 

[CTCruiser76]

Get ready to ride the wave...........pun intended 😉

[Dennis#1]

Yes, the wave is coming.