RCL Stock

[dada2199cc]

5 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

 

BTW, you never e-mailed me about your price tracking app. So sad. 😞

 

Oh I'll track that down!  I had the hurricane to deal with and was in Florida prepping with the neighbors so I missed a bunch of emails!

[yogimax]

Instead of shorting with unlimited risk, you could buy puts which limits the amount you could lose.

[Baron Barracuda]

Troubling that CCL occupancy now up to 90% yet still cash flow negative for quarter.  For q4 they're forecasting weaker volumes at lower pricing partially due to fcc's.  Debt service requirements dwarf that little bit of positive EBITDA.

[DirtyDawg]

17 hours ago, yogimax said:

Instead of shorting with unlimited risk, you could buy puts which limits the amount you could lose.

Yes, there are many strategies that you can employ if you want to invest/speculate that a stock, or market or a commodity etc. will decline in price. Some people think shorting is speculation and going long is investment. Quite frankly, it depends on the person's level of knowledge about the investment and about it's risks that makes either going short or going long an investment or just a speculation. In my experience, most retail 'investors' who naturally go long, are in fact just speculators. (Psst, some professionals too!) 😉

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, DirtyDawg said:

 Quite frankly, it depends on the person's level of knowledge about the investment and about it's risks that makes either going short or going long an investment or just a speculation.

 

Exactly this. I don't claim to be an expert investor, but I didn't go short to lose money and I won't ever go short unless I feel comfortable with my knowledge of the industry. 

 

To me, the writing has been on the wall and I saw very little risk going short last July. Let's see....the cruise companies were entirely shuttered for 18 months. The path back to sailing was cluttered with very expensive covid protocols which cost the cruise lines in terms of both $$$ and people willing to cruise. A very real mind shift in how Johnny Public views cruising due to months of very bad press related to petri dishes. A new public much more sensitive to virus exposure (all virus) which increases with population density (less likely to choose cruising). Debt mounting into the Billions (with a B). Interest on said debt rising rapidly. And now we have a very serious recession. Shorting seemed much less risky than remaining long. Speculation that proved very lucrative. 

 

Don't hate the player, hate the game ;-). 

Edited October 1, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Morecruisesplz]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Exactly this. I don't claim to be an expert investor, but I didn't go short to lose money and I won't ever go short unless I feel comfortable with my knowledge of the industry. 

 

To me, the writing has been on the wall and I saw very little risk going short last July. Let's see....the cruise companies were entirely shuttered for 18 months. The path back to sailing was cluttered with very expensive covid protocols which cost the cruise lines in terms of both $$$ and people willing to cruise. A very real mind shift in how Johnny Public views cruising due to months of very bad press related to petri dishes. A new public much more sensitive to virus exposure (all virus) which increases with population density (less likely to choose cruising). Debt mounting into the Billions (with a B). Interest on said debt rising rapidly. And now we have a very serious recession. Shorting seemed much less risky than remaining long. Speculation that proved very lucrative. 

 

Don't hate the player, hate the game ;-). 

🥱 

[John&LaLa]

On 9/30/2022 at 11:10 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

I believe Ch 11 is on the table, but if I was a young investor like you, I might take a chance. As a retired Gen Z, I'm holding this short for the quick win. 

 

Shorting is just gambling. Might as well put it on red.

[MaryZ]

35 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Shorting is just gambling. Might as well put it on red.

The entire stock market is gambling.  That's why it's so fun.  Only play with money you can afford to lose. 
Now I'm building portfolios for my grandkids. 

[grandgeezer]

33 minutes ago, MaryZ said:

The entire stock market is gambling.  That's why it's so fun.  Only play with money you can afford to lose. 
Now I'm building portfolios for my grandkids. 

I’ve been having fun in the stock market for almost 35 years now and have had a blast. It doesn’t hurt than I’ve done really well in it. I’ve ridden the wave up and I’ve ridden it down several times so this downward trend hasn’t really upset me.

As far as grandkids, we have one and he will be a freshman at A.S.U. this fall. We have fully funded a 529 college fund so hopefully he will graduate with little or no debt. 
We have also helped his dad and mom pay off their house. They are going to get it all when we go so we might as well give them some when they need it. We have everything we want and do everything we want so we are giving up nothing by helping them out.

A comment on your post on only play with money you can afford to lose, it’s really scary when that number is well into six digits, not including the cents.

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Shorting is just gambling. Might as well put it on red.

 

Not exactly ;-). 

[DirtyDawg]

18 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Shorting is just gambling. Might as well put it on red.

Life is just gambling. Each and every day right from conception until death. We just try to tilt the odds in our favour and 'roll the dice"! 🎲 🎲

[mcrcruiser]

This cruise industry becomes more  & more   intriguing  . Well we booked 5 new cruises adding to ur already 87 past cruises  for this & next year . 

 

 We also took out vendor default  insurance with in our trip insurance ,that added cosy not that much to protect our invested  dollars into these new cruises 

 

 About the cruise line stocks ,tight now they all are a crap shoot because of their heavy debt burdens   . I just don't fool with companies  in their financial conditions . I don't gamble  .There ate way netter companies  with great dividend payouts  that have dropped considerably in price per share , I use a strategy of  triple shorting  the S& P  500 while picking up cheap shares of dynamic companies  over time as this stock market implodes   .Much simpler than  taking out puts  on many stocks at a  real cost   & those puts have expiration dates  . I just like to short one symbol  the S&P  500 while getting loaded up with high paying quality dividend stocks  that will be  vaulting  in price when this bear is finished  ravaging  

[exm]

On 9/30/2022 at 12:06 PM, grandgeezer said:

It’s below $39, you must be all in, unless it’s just all talk.

 

The recession is real. I will start picking up stocks slows. Note that I'm not investing into CCL.

[Biker19]

MIAMI – October 6, 2022 – Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) (the “Company”) today announced that it has closed its concurrent private offerings of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 9.250% senior guaranteed notes due 2029 (the “Senior Guaranteed Notes”) and $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 8.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2029 (the “Senior Secured Notes,” together with the Senior Guaranteed Notes, the “Notes”). Each series of Notes will mature on January 15, 2029, unless earlier redeemed or repurchased.

 

The Company is using the combined net proceeds from the sale of the Notes, together with cash on hand, to redeem all of its 9.125% priority guaranteed notes due 2023 and 10.875% senior secured notes due 2023, each with an aggregate principal amount of $1.0 billion.

 

The Senior Guaranteed Notes will be guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by RCI Holdings LLC, which owns 100% of the equity interests of certain of the Company’s wholly-owned vessel-owning subsidiaries.

 

 

 

 

 

The Senior Secured Notes will be guaranteed by Celebrity Cruises Inc., Celebrity Cruises Holdings Inc. and certain of the Company’s wholly-owned vessel owning subsidiaries. The Senior Secured Notes and the related guarantees will be secured by 26 of the Company’s vessels and material intellectual property of the Company in an amount not to exceed permitted capacity under the Company’s existing indebtedness.

 

The Notes were offered only to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and outside the United States, only to certain non-U.S. investors pursuant to Regulation S. The Notes will not be registered under the Securities Act or any state securities laws and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state laws.

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000110465922106834/tm2227571d1_ex99-1.htm

[At Sea At Peace]

7 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

MIAMI – October 6, 2022 – Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) (the “Company”) today announced that it has closed its concurrent private offerings of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 9.250% senior guaranteed notes due 2029 (the “Senior Guaranteed Notes”) and $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 8.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2029 (the “Senior Secured Notes,” together with the Senior Guaranteed Notes, the “Notes”). Each series of Notes will mature on January 15, 2029, unless earlier redeemed or repurchased.

 

The Company is using the combined net proceeds from the sale of the Notes, together with cash on hand, to redeem all of its 9.125% priority guaranteed notes due 2023 and 10.875% senior secured notes due 2023, each with an aggregate principal amount of $1.0 billion.

 

The Senior Guaranteed Notes will be guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by RCI Holdings LLC, which owns 100% of the equity interests of certain of the Company’s wholly-owned vessel-owning subsidiaries.

 

The Senior Secured Notes will be guaranteed by Celebrity Cruises Inc., Celebrity Cruises Holdings Inc. and certain of the Company’s wholly-owned vessel owning subsidiaries. The Senior Secured Notes and the related guarantees will be secured by 26 of the Company’s vessels and material intellectual property of the Company in an amount not to exceed permitted capacity under the Company’s existing indebtedness.

 

 

Thanks.

 

These are the cream (senior guaranteed and senior secured; i.e., securitized, collateralized) of the debt crop for RCL, 2-3% less than the previous $1.25Bs senior unsecured recently.  

 

A long time ago @BermudaBound2014 projected that RCL might be the one with the best chance to survive.   Their Morgan Stanley backstopping of 2023 debt replacement was a key factor.

 

The debt market seems to agree. In order, RCL yields the lowest, NCL noticeably behind and CCL pretty much 'towel throwing' time.

[styxfire]

On 10/2/2022 at 8:35 PM, exm said:

The recession is real. I will start picking up stocks slows. Note that I'm not investing into CCL.

CCL traded this week at book value.  I.e The value of liquidating all its ships & assets.  How much lower could it go than that?

[grandgeezer]

9 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Thanks.

 

These are the cream (senior guaranteed and senior secured; i.e., securitized, collateralized) of the debt crop for RCL, 2-3% less than the previous $1.25Bs senior unsecured recently.  

 

A long time ago @BermudaBound2014 projected that RCL might be the one with the best chance to survive.   Their Morgan Stanley backstopping of 2023 debt replacement was a key factor.

 

The debt market seems to agree. In order, RCL yields the lowest, NCL noticeably behind and CCL pretty much 'towel throwing' time.

Borrowing money to pay off the money you borrowed before, robbing peter to pay paul. They have no assets, worth any money to put up for collateral so I’m guessing the money faucet will be turned of in the near future. There doesn’t seem to any end to the recession, in the near future anyway. There’s only a couple of ways this can end any they don’t bode well for the industry. Get you dirt cheap, excellent cruises in while you can. If you disagree, load up on the bottom basement stock prices. You probably can make some money in ten years, or so.

[At Sea At Peace]

16 hours ago, styxfire said:

CCL traded this week at book value.  I.e The value of liquidating all its ships & assets.  How much lower could it go than that?

 

For CCL, to penny stock levels after a Petition filing?

 

I know I sound like my own echo 🙄 but their debt (other than the most senior, secured) is openly trading with yield rates (effective interest) approaching 20%.  😲  Sellers are taking 'debt haircuts' to get out.  😨

 

By comparison, RCL debtholders are not experiencing the same level or magnitude of loss of value on debt investments.

Edited October 8, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[Baron Barracuda]

18 hours ago, styxfire said:

CCL traded this week at book value.  I.e The value of liquidating all its ships & assets.  How much lower could it go than that?

In a liquidation scenario do you think Carnival's fleet would fetch anywhere near it's $40B book value?

[grandgeezer]

5 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

In a liquidation scenario do you think Carnival's fleet would fetch anywhere near it's $40B book value?

In this market who would want or afford, the ships? The whole industry in trouble and no end in sight, if interested they would probably only offer pennys on the dollar. A complete outsider probably wouldn’t even consider it. What would they do with the ships, it isn’t like you can park them in a garage and forget about them. It would also take years to set up their new business up, running and profitable. Scrap would be the obvious answer for the current owner.

[clskinsfan]

5 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

In a liquidation scenario do you think Carnival's fleet would fetch anywhere near it's $40B book value?

No chance. If the recession gets bad enough CCL could end up scraping half of its fleet. They are replacing the older ships now and into the future. But 10 of their current ships are 20 years or older. They are in real trouble. 

[deepcman]

It's just a matter of time until Carnival declares prepackage chapter 11. Shares will be delisted and debt holders will take a haircut which will still be better than receiving pennies on the dollar. Royal won't be far behind them. 

[styxfire]

2 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

In this market who would want or afford, the ships? The whole industry in trouble and no end in sight, if interested they would probably only offer pennies on the dollar.

From an industry summary of Thursday morning's comments, Del Rio said:

• the key is to have consumers feel they get a deal. By allowing consumers buy dining and beverage packages up front, as well shore excursions, they come onboard with a so-called “fresh wallet” and spend more.
• Onboard spending on the Norwegian Prima on its trans-Atlantic crossing had been double the company’s average.
• In 2018, 52% of the passengers bought packages in advance of their cruise. For 2022, it increased to 85%. His interpretation is that more cruises are “sticking,” meaning there are fewer cancellations and higher advance deposits.
• He said NCL will generate record EBITDA and net yield in 2023.
• He said bookings for 2023 were up from 2019, including a 16% capacity increase, and at significantly higher prices.

 

Mgmt of all the cruiselines talk as if there IS an end in sight.  Whether they're accurate or blowing smoke remains to be seen.  I'm invested.

[Crazy planning mom]

2 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

In this market who would want or afford, the ships? The whole industry in trouble and no end in sight, if interested they would probably only offer pennys on the dollar. A complete outsider probably wouldn’t even consider it. What would they do with the ships, it isn’t like you can park them in a garage and forget about them. It would also take years to set up their new business up, running and profitable. Scrap would be the obvious answer for the current owner.

So, you think Carnival would go out completely?  You don't think they would continue sailing their newest most profitable ships?

 

[styxfire]

Silverseas is buying one of the Crystal ships.  Disney is rumored to be negotiating for Global Dream, which greatly dwarfs the Royal oasis-class ships.  And there are new cruiselines popping up in Singapore, as well as Ritz Carlton, Four Seasons and Forbes Travel all starting new cruiselines.  Rumors of the demise of cruising demand have been exagerated, imo.