Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

[Vader1111]

2 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

If  we are all good and they can keep the second wave suppressed, international travel will return, I expect cruising to start a month or two after that but with very harsh restrictions and plenty of measures to catch any possible outbreak before it does.

Any second wave domestically won't impact on the return of cruising.  That's going to be dependent upon the situation overseas.  Given that CV-19 shows no signs of abating, that's not happening anytime soon.

[OzKiwiJJ]

There is a big enough market in Australia and NZ to allow local cruising regardless of what is going on outside our bubble, and without needing overseas passengers to boost the numbers. Once trans-Tasman travel is reestablished it should be possible for cruising to restart as well under strict conditions. It will be interesting to see what Australian states welcome cruising back first. Unfortunately I suspect NSW won't be leading the rush despite Eden's wishes.

[MicCanberra]

I see no reason why the Tasman bubble and even extended to the South Pacific after a month or so could not happen if people (especially those from overseas) are screened properly.

[Chiliburn]

1 hour ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

There is a big enough market in Australia and NZ to allow local cruising regardless of what is going on outside our bubble, and without needing overseas passengers to boost the numbers. Once trans-Tasman travel is reestablished it should be possible for cruising to restart as well under strict conditions. It will be interesting to see what Australian states welcome cruising back first. Unfortunately I suspect NSW won't be leading the rush despite Eden's wishes.

If people can’t go overseas for their holiday they will probably try a cruise.

 

[The_Big_M]

14 hours ago, Vader1111 said:

You think Australia would allow them to operate here without the same social distancing requirements imposed by the CDC?  Europe?  Asia?

 

They're not cruising anywhere at all until the CDC gives them the all-clear to do so, and when they do finally start it will be using health & sanitary (including social distance) policies dictated by the CDC.

 

It's more likely that the CDC will give them the go ahead this year than the Australian or NZ Govts allowing cruising to re-start here.  Cruising will be one of the very last industries to re-start in this country, and it won't happen until international travel restrictions are lifted.  While the Govt has announced plans for re-opening the country domestically, there are no plans for lifting any international travel restrictions - and there won't be until it is completely controlled worldwide.

 

Who knows. Just as we introduced worldwide bans ahead of the USA, and imposed other lockdowns, there is no reason or association with the CDC. We introduced restrictions ahead of the CDC.

 

If Australian authorities choose to adopt their procedures that's on them, but that's not currently the case, nor has it been, and there's been nothing to date that they will.

[The_Big_M]

2 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

I see no reason why the Tasman bubble and even extended to the South Pacific after a month or so could not happen if people (especially those from overseas) are screened properly.

 

Agreed. Gung-ho commissioners excepted.

[getting older slowly]

I am wondering...... all this lock down..... and stopping people entering the country....

 

Has slowed the spread,  if no stopped it in Australasia......     As a country once to allow people to freely move we will see an increase in cases partly due to the asymptomatic people  

 

But are we going to keep our borders closed ????     so whenever they are opened we will getting a second wave.....

 

as I can't see our boarder controls testing everybody coming into the country... and waiting for the result.....

 

It is an interesting call...... or as some have stated, over time the virus may mutate into something less harmful....

 

Or do we see a brave new world... with little or no oversea travel... scary thought...

 

Lock down has given me way to much thing to think and ponder... like will the AE35 unit fail in 72 hours..

 

Cheers Don

[Vader1111]

We just don't know what the picture looks like re: international travel.  The Aus Govt has, quite sensibly, focused it's attentions to date on planning for the re-opening of the Australian domestic economy.  There are no plans at present to lift the restrictions on international travel, except for the likely creation of the Trans-Tasman Bubble (and it's likely extension to the South Pacific nations).

 

Herd Immunity is a myth, for many reasons.  We don't know if antibodies give immunity.  If they do, we don't know how long that immunity lasts.  We don't know if immunity to one strain still leaves you vulnerable to other strains, noting that the virus is constantly mutating.  The human cost of achieving herd immunity is far too high (250-300,000 deaths, even at Australia's low mortality rates).  Herd Immunity would take 10+ years to achieve, if we were to allow the virus to spread in a controlled fashion, while not exceeding the (expanded) health system's capacity.

 

The only viable way of achieving herd immunity is through a vaccine.  However, no vaccine has ever been discovered for any other coronavirus, so we may well be hoping in vain.  At best, we could see a vaccine in 2021... maybe... if we cross all of our fingers and toes, and wish upon a falling star.

 

The only way international travel re-starts is if a vaccine is discovered, or if this thing burns itself out - or if they simply decide that it will never go away and decide that the economic cost of trying to deal with it is too high and living with CV-19 becomes "normal".  None of these are likely to happen in 2020.

[redransom]

Hard to imagine Australasian cruises until the cruise lines can guarantee all their crew are virus free.

[bazzaw]

There is no future for cruising for the next few years!!!  People have LONG memories!!! 

[MicCanberra]

39 minutes ago, bazzaw said:

There is no future for cruising for the next few years!!!  People have LONG memories!!! 

I have to respectfully disagree here, most people have very short memories.

[Battleship02]

I will predict a window of opportunity in October for Australia and New Zealand if the governments get their act together and allow travel.

[ilikeanswers]

1 hour ago, MicCanberra said:

I have to respectfully disagree here, most people have very short memories.

 

I think it depends on the situation. I don't this Pandemic will be forgotten as quickly since it is not just a one day event. The countries who went through the SARS epidemics didn't forget and it ironically prepared then for COVID19. Anyway I do hope this makes travellers of the future a little more savvy:

 

Coronavirus and travel: The five lessons every traveller must learn from the pandemic

 

You would have thought this stuff was common sense but I guess it never really hit home till the pandemic. 

[MicCanberra]

18 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I think it depends on the situation. I don't this Pandemic will be forgotten as quickly since it is not just a one day event. The countries who went through the SARS epidemics didn't forget and it ironically prepared then for COVID19. Anyway I do hope this makes travellers of the future a little more savvy:

 

Coronavirus and travel: The five lessons every traveller must learn from the pandemic

 

You would have thought this stuff was common sense but I guess it never really hit home till the pandemic. 

Interesting article.

[VK3DQ]

3 hours ago, bazzaw said:

There is no future for cruising for the next few years!!!  People have LONG memories!!! 

 

I agree with bazzaw  its not just opening Australia and New Zealand , the entire issue of crewing has to be resolved thats not even considering how space will be used on board ships .. My guess now is that you MAY see some lines open at the start of 2023 and cruising will not look the same as it was before all this started and it will not be a cheap holiday any more

 

thats my thoughts

 

Regards

John

[Rickster50]

I think everybody should "Hasten Slowly" in these difficult times. I 'm sure a proper vaccine to treat this virus will certainly take time, and until that happens and all proper testing has been carried out, we should not even think of travelling particularly overseas.

I know for a fact most of the cruise lines are bombarding us with cruise deals, I know I receive them on a daily basis, however I say disregard all that for the time being.....it's all about profit!!  We do not need that right now!!

Better to be safe than sorry.

My 2 cents.

 

Rick

[MicCanberra]

I still think that if the cruise lines are allowed to cruise, people will do it and the ships will sail (within the restrictions), but they will sell and people will cruise.

[Chiliburn]

I was just reading that RCI is trying to secure finances to keep them going for a no sailing until the end of 2021 .

 

Things are looking serious.

[Kiwi Kruzer]

I agree with above and would be holding back till things settle down . I think there will be an initial rush of bargains as the lines (who ever is left) try to get some money in , but this will be followed by resistance from the cruising public when they experience the changes that will have to be put in place . ie .life on board will be very regulated . 

[By The Bay]

Could this find its way to cruise ship lifts?

[ilikeanswers]

57 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

Could this find its way to cruise ship lifts?

 

Is that far enough though😳? 

[OzKiwiJJ]

18 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Is that far enough though😳? 

No. They could probably have three people in it with two in the back corners and one front centre, but not three across the back like that.

 

Our local Bunnings, which has huge lifts, is only allowing two people in a lift at a time. Lots of people were shopping there but most seemed to be buying small stuff that could be carried down the stairs. Unfortunately this meant the stairwell was very crowded with people going up and down. Impossible to maintain any sort of social distancing there! We had a couple of bags of potting mix so enjoyed having a lift to ourselves.

[Cruisegroover]

I live in an high rise apartment block and these markings are on the floor in our lift and accompanying signage.

Edited May 13, 2020 by Cruisegroover
Added photo.

[Vader1111]

Here are some comments from Australia's Chief Medical Officer today:

Quote

Aussies hoping for an overseas holiday will be waiting for a very long time, according to chief medical officer Dr Brendan Murphy.

Speaking at today's COVID Committee, Dr Murphy said while local border measures were "less important" in stopping the spread of coronavirus currently, international border measures were integral.

"Two thirds of our cases have been overseas acquired and recent analysis in academic literature has shown that those countries that have done the best have introduced border measures," Dr Murphy said.

"I cannot see border measures materially changing for some time and that presents a huge problem for the nation."

Dr Murphy said a relaxation of state and territory border measures could be in the near future.

Western states in particular had brought in border measures to "protect" themselves from the rest of Australia and its coronavirus surge.

"When NSW had a lot of cases I think that some of those states felt it would help their epidemiology if they closed borders," he said.

Dr Murphy said Australia was still seeing virus cases in returned international travellers, particularly from Europe and the UK, who are all spending two weeks in quarantine hotels.

While there's been talk of easing some coronavirus restrictions, Dr Murphy advised caution on borders.

"I cannot see border measures… they'll be one of the last things to go international border measures," he said.

Asked if he could see international borders reopening this year or next year, Dr Murphy admitted no one could be sure.

"There is no clear roadmap out of this, we have a strategy of maintaining strong suppression, potentially elimination in some parts of country while we relax restrictions," he said.

"But then we will have to reassess every few months to see what's happening with vaccines, treatments.

"I have no vision at the moment on the current international scene where strong border measures won't be necessary…the world situation will evolve over many months."
 

 

Cruise Ships won't be returning to Australia until after we re-open the borders for international travellers... and that's not happening for "a very long time".

 

Quote taken from the daily coronavirus blog on news.com.au.  No point in linking, as the blog gets wiped on a daily basis.

[By The Bay]

Once travel between Australian states is opened, I cannot see why P&O Australia cannot operate within Australian waters. It could include Willis Island for the duty free entitlement. Unfortunately, the bad image created by the Ruby Princess incident is a big hurdle to overcome.