Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

[lucymorgan]

Another thing that is needed is a way to determine immunity and how long immunity lasts (if at all).  Currently the antibody tests (which are different to the PCR test as they show if you have antibodies not whether you currently have the virus) are only 80% accurate.  Also, it is not yet known whether having the antibodies means that you are immune or will be immune to mutations of the virus.  It may be that just like the flu, you will need to have a vaccination every year although there is hope that this may not be the case.  Here is an article which is being circulated amongst epidemiologists and statisticians https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56?fbclid=IwAR00Du3OTga-KAWIWAHAPxLlvVx5ny8zh08WY_OWt4LT02doXMFq_mCdg6Q.     There are further and more up to date articles linked in there as well. 

 

[Pushka]

5 hours ago, lucymorgan said:

Another thing that is needed is a way to determine immunity and how long immunity lasts (if at all).  Currently the antibody tests (which are different to the PCR test as they show if you have antibodies not whether you currently have the virus) are only 80% accurate.  Also, it is not yet known whether having the antibodies means that you are immune or will be immune to mutations of the virus.  It may be that just like the flu, you will need to have a vaccination every year although there is hope that this may not be the case.  Here is an article which is being circulated amongst epidemiologists and statisticians https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56?fbclid=IwAR00Du3OTga-KAWIWAHAPxLlvVx5ny8zh08WY_OWt4LT02doXMFq_mCdg6Q.     There are further and more up to date articles linked in there as well. 

 

Immunity determination should never be used as a criteria for travel. 

[MicCanberra]

6 hours ago, GUT2407 said:

I suspect the first cruises will be ANZACS only with bars still in place on foreign tourists.

I would hope the bars are open to everyone on the cruise.

[lucymorgan]

2 hours ago, Pushka said:

Immunity determination should never be used as a criteria for travel. 

Perhaps not by companies but certainly should be a factor for individual choice.  At the moment governments around the world ARE making it a criteria for travel as they don't know if anyone has immunity and borders are closed

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by lucymorgan

[Pushka]

15 minutes ago, lucymorgan said:

Perhaps not by companies but certainly should be a factor for individual choice.  At the moment governments around the world ARE making it a criteria for travel as they don't know if anyone has immunity and borders are closed

 

Which countries are using Immunity? Or do you mean negative to infection which is different? 

[lucymorgan]

10 minutes ago, Pushka said:

Which countries are using Immunity? Or do you mean negative to infection which is different? 

What I am saying is that because no one knows who is immune (yet), countries (like Australia) have closed their borders.  If we did know who was immune as long as they could not be carriers, we could open our borders to those people.  If I knew I was immune, I would be comfortable cruising too.  The two problems at the moment are that the antibody tests are only 80% accurate and we don't yet know how long immunity lasts

 

edit:  and immunity could be gained by two methods - catching the virus (perhaps unknowingly) or by vaccination when/if there is one

edit:  here is a link to the difference between antigen and antibody tests https://www.tga.gov.au/covid-19-testing-australia-information-health-professionals

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by lucymorgan

[lucymorgan]

and further - there is now apparently a more accurate antibody test (although the problems mentioned in my post above remain) https://www.businessinsider.com.au/antibody-test-that-is-more-than-99-accurate-gets-emergency-clearance-by-fda-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

 

[MicCanberra]

Carnival will be cruising from some home ports in the US by 1 August.

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.carnivalcorp.com%2Fnews-releases%2Fnews-release-details%2Fcarnival-cruise-line-announces-plan-phase-service%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR01oGoyvuuUMxMxAX5v3TEOKrwIoRwS9nT-ZRDYpzouMBke5JkqL18uhWc&h=AT2zxm42ZojIlRb9fqg5tBbNjBoaXWMswaWVmlQ901EJ4mh06yskuluaOG6uQfkKg2sEIR1QfADyk3B7W1WKPZ4vQPieazkoBnFxpBvcBk4HvIE0OnCJa-5SpvQGnpqeEWgE3KGmog_2bC4bunU

[By The Bay]

1 hour ago, MicCanberra said:

Carnival will be cruising

? Will be cruising?

I doubt it. They need CDC approval. Selling cruises does not mean they will happen.

Edited May 4, 2020 by By The Bay

[ilikeanswers]

50 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

? Will be cruising?

I doubt it. They need CDC approval. Selling cruises does not mean they will happen.

 

Not to mention the Caribbean Islands have to be willing to let them in🙄 Unless they can do cruises to no where. 

[The_Big_M]

4 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

Carnival will be cruising from some home ports in the US by 1 August.

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.carnivalcorp.com%2Fnews-releases%2Fnews-release-details%2Fcarnival-cruise-line-announces-plan-phase-service%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR01oGoyvuuUMxMxAX5v3TEOKrwIoRwS9nT-ZRDYpzouMBke5JkqL18uhWc&h=AT2zxm42ZojIlRb9fqg5tBbNjBoaXWMswaWVmlQ901EJ4mh06yskuluaOG6uQfkKg2sEIR1QfADyk3B7W1WKPZ4vQPieazkoBnFxpBvcBk4HvIE0OnCJa-5SpvQGnpqeEWgE3KGmog_2bC4bunU

 

That was after they will be cruising 15 July. After they will be cruising from June 27. After they will be cruising from April 10.

 

It's just another temporary marker until there is actually government support, which isn't in place yet.

[By The Bay]

4 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

 

That was after they will be cruising 15 July. After they will be cruising from June 27. After they will be cruising from April 10.

 

It's just another temporary marker until there is actually government support, which isn't in place yet.

Spot on.

[lucymorgan]

3 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Not to mention the Caribbean Islands have to be willing to let them in🙄 Unless they can do cruises to no where. 

 

'cruises to nowhere' is an interesting point.  I bet they are considering this in great detail.  It could be they start with cruises to the private islands they own or within country (for example within Aus and/or NZ) and have much more stringent requirements on international passengers and new crew joining (eg. quarantine for 21 days before joining the ship).   As well there may be some islands (such as Mystery Island) where people don't actually live where they could create deals with the governments to rapidly accelerate their development as cruising destinations.   Some of those small nations might be prepared to sacrifice one of their islands for a big injection in infrastructure/schools/health facilities on the other islands.

Edited May 5, 2020 by lucymorgan

[Kiwi Kruzer]

3 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Not to mention the Caribbean Islands have to be willing to let them in🙄 

Unless they can do cruises to no where. 

I think they will concentrate more on making the ship the destination .🛳😉🛳🚢🧑‍🍳😉

[Blackduck59]

Everything is moving so fast but going nowhere. When this thread started OzKiwiJJ  had created a little game which has morphed about 15 times over the weeks. Now we have a moving target, Cruise companies keep moving the goal posts and make announcements with absolutely no idea if any of the destinations will be open to visitors. Carnival Cruises seems to have abandoned Alaska for this year. Celebrity is advertising starting Alaska sailings in July, but I really don't think the Canadian ports will be open. We Cancelled Canada Day on July first, I rather doubt we will be real cool with thousands of international visitors (many of them from the country with the largest outbreak in the world) just days after cancelling our national celebration.

I really never thought there would be anything until September at the earliest. I do however believe that the Australian and New Zealand cruise season will restart in November. I also believe that there will be international travel to Australia and New Zealand at that same time. That being said there will be some strict restrictions that do not include quarantine on arrival. I do think ETAs for Australia and New Zealand will be a little harder to obtain. People that travel from or through countries with poor containment of COVID 19 may be excluded.

My purely selfish thought and hope is that Canada. New Zealand and Australia are able to get this thing under control at about the same time (before Christmas) and we can all travel again.

[lucymorgan]

21 minutes ago, Kiwi Kruzer said:

I think they will concentrate more on making the ship the destination .🛳😉🛳🚢🧑‍🍳😉

Perhaps all - making the ship the destination (which it already is for lots of people) and having private/exclusive use islands and within countries as the destinations. 

 

I remember years ago going to Disney world's Epcot and being astounded at how many people seemed to believe that they were actually getting fully authentic experiences of the countries that were on exhibition rather than carefully curated experiences.   Comments like "isn't it wonderful that we don't have to travel too far to experience this country".  Epcot is/was a great place but nothing like the real experience.  

[MicCanberra]

5 hours ago, By The Bay said:

? Will be cruising?

I doubt it. They need CDC approval. Selling cruises does not mean they will happen.

Only posted what they said, don't shoot the messenger. I will believe it when I see it as well.

 

[Chiliburn]

So I’m thinking of a tran-Tasman bubble and with quarantined ships our season will be a goer.

Crew will be the biggest issue???

The ships are in south east Asia at the moment and after quarantine will board them and after two weeks repositioning will add another 2 weeks.

After tests is Sydney,all systems GO.

 

[VK3DQ]

7 minutes ago, Chiliburn said:

So I’m thinking of a tran-Tasman bubble and with quarantined ships our season will be a goer.

Crew will be the biggest issue???

The ships are in south east Asia at the moment and after quarantine will board them and after two weeks repositioning will add another 2 weeks.

After tests is Sydney,all systems GO.

 

 

Sorry not a chance .. the CREW have to be included in the bubble ... its just not going to happen , unless ships have OZ or KIwi Crew .....  

I for one would pay for that but the vast majority would not be willing

 

Regards

John

[Chiliburn]

50 minutes ago, VK3DQ said:

 

Sorry not a chance .. the CREW have to be included in the bubble ... its just not going to happen , unless ships have OZ or KIwi Crew .....  

I for one would pay for that but the vast majority would not be willing

 

Regards

John

All respect John,I don’t think a total local crew maybe some. 
We are talking 5-6 months,a lot can happen.

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Chiliburn

[Chiliburn]

Do you think we will be hit with a flu surcharge??

[ilikeanswers]

I saw the press conference with Jacinta Arden and she mentioned that the Trans Tasman bubble while in discussions would still be a long way off. By extension you would assume travel beyond that would be even further away🤔.

 

As for ship crew I get people want to be optimistic but at some point you do have to come down to reality and there is no way our countries will allow people from uncontained infection zones in. Even with quarantine the risk is too great especially with all the sacrifices locals have had to make to get our low infection rate. The people will not be happy with the risk just to grant cruise ships an exemption. On top of that countries like Indonesia might not be as enthusiastic to have their citizens working on cruise ships as a lot of the infections outside of Java have been contact traced to returning cruise ship crew members. As important as remittance is to their economy so is not have islands in complete lock down😳. 

[The_Big_M]

1 hour ago, VK3DQ said:

 

Sorry not a chance .. the CREW have to be included in the bubble ... its just not going to happen , unless ships have OZ or KIwi Crew .....  

I for one would pay for that but the vast majority would not be willing

 

Regards

John

 

What's wrong with 2 weeks quarantine? That applies to everyone else, including returning Australians.

[ilikeanswers]

49 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

What's wrong with 2 weeks quarantine? That applies to everyone else, including returning Australians.

 

Quarantine is not fool proof and the act of them moving here will require contact with people. It still risks bringing infection. Do you think the Australian public would be agreeable to a foreign staff exception for cruise ships after all the lock downs we had to endure? Especially from countries with spreading infections? It would be a PR nightmare and the cruise ship industry already has enough of a tarnished image. 

[MicCanberra]

3 hours ago, Chiliburn said:

So I’m thinking of a tran-Tasman bubble and with quarantined ships our season will be a goer.

Crew will be the biggest issue???

The ships are in south east Asia at the moment and after quarantine will board them and after two weeks repositioning will add another 2 weeks.

After tests is Sydney,all systems GO.

 

Flights may be up in the Tasman bubble for July but I think the cruises would still be at least until October / November just for Tasman bubble cruises, all depending on how the 2nd wave occurs.