When will things start back up?

[Tranquility Base]

Some good news for a change.

 

The benefits of being small and isolated.

Palau, never had a case of Covid reported.

It will likely also be the first nation in the World fully vaccinated.

 

Well done Palau.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Tranquility Base

[Paulchili]

1 hour ago, ORV said:

Actually CA is right in the middle. They have vaccinated 1.5% of their population. KS is one of 6 states that haven't reported. Here is a handy table, use the one on the right. 

 

https://time.com/collection/coronavirus-vaccines-updates/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=sfmc&utm_campaign=newsletter+health-thursday+default+ac&utm_content=+++20210107+++body&et_rid=92272582

Very informative - thanks

[Tranquility Base]

Celebrity has cancelled through to 30 April.

They have also cancelled the European season for 2 of their ships departing from May to October.

[Jayne E]

Husband vaccinated 8 days ago and me 2 days ago. I know our governor may not be popular with some, but he has made those over 65 and first responders a priority and has opened numerous locations throughout the state. The appointment websites are registering people and following with appointments. It an enormous relief!

[Aloha 1]

Word is O will be cancelling all April cruises shortly.

[LHT28]

25 minutes ago, Aloha 1 said:

Word is O will be cancelling all April cruises shortly.

Not Surprised  

[pinotlover]

In answering the question of the OP, I will first define, for purposes of this post, cruising. I’m defining it as going on multi day/ month trips and visiting random ports of call. Not how it is/was defined last year by the EU and CDC.

 

To me, the answer to the OP becomes another question. When can the cruise lines overcome the multiple logistical barriers and get their entire crew vaccinated, then to the ships to get them out of cool/cold lay up?

 

I was reading an article talking about the European river cruises. Almost the entire crew, on the riverboats, are European. The primary countries, if they so desire, can declare those crew members essential personnel at any time and get them vaccinated for a season starting in May or June. If the hopeful passengers get their vaccinations, that industry has a reasonable chance of success in 2021. An industry and jobs restored.

 

Ocean cruises are a different beast. Crew comes from multiple parts of the world and from countries that may only recognize small, if any, gain for moving those often young healthy workers up the priority ladder. A simple case in point is the entertainment staff which includes the social director, often the ass’t CD, and the CD. Those personnel are often either US or Canadian. Is the US going to suddenly move a healthy 22-25 year old up the priority list, for receiving the vaccine , so to fly off to work on a cruise ship? When might that young singer or dancer otherwise expect to get their shots so to work? Until they get their shots, many countries aren’t going to allow them to enter the country to get on a ship. 
 

It’s very early in the vaccination process both here and abroad. The distribution logistics for each country is different. Getting crews assembled, fully vaccinated ( that’s a month plus process) , to the ships, and the ships prepared to sail will be a long slow process. 

If countries are perceived as being too difficult to work with ( read the US), those ships may well be last to sail in 2021, if by then.
 

I believe that most of the ocean cruise passengers that want to cruise will be fully vaccinated by 3rd Qtr, around July 1. Can the cruise lines have their crews and ships ready by then? Probably a few, but not all. The next question becomes “ which ships and itineraries gets prioritized and start sailing earlier instead of later”?

[tennis]

We did cancel the April 30 Marina cruise.  I didn’t want another $10,000 tied up for several months when it takes so long for refunds.

 

In Charleston, SC it appears vaccinations are going well.  The State organization responsible for managing distribution keeps their web site up-to-date and they are taking appointments for those over 70 now - ahead of schedule.  Apparently more healthcare workers and other high priority people have chosen not to get vaccinated than they expected.  I know several people in their 70’s that got their first dose this week.  You just call or go online to make your appointment.  I still think it will be 6 - 8 weeks before we will be able to make appointments which is earlier than our son-in-law who has had several kidney transplants.  He has been on immunosuppressant drugs since he was seven.  I think he should have a higher priority for receiving a vaccination than we do but I am sure there are all sorts of exceptional cases.  Overall I think South Carolina is doing a good job. 

[Hawaiidan]

On 1/12/2021 at 11:34 AM, Tranquility Base said:

Celebrity has cancelled through to 30 April.

They have also cancelled the European season for 2 of their ships departing from May to October.

I would suspect O will follow....  I now do nor expect the August/Sept cruises to happen. going to look at 2022.

[Hlitner]

I continue to believe that 100% mandatory vaccination (for all onboard....both crew and passengers) will be the ultimate trigger to restart cruises.  This will be driven not just by the CDC and other health authorities but by International travel standards which will likely require proof of vaccination to enter most countries, board airlines, etc.    So perhaps we need to look at how long it will take to get crews and enough passengers vaccinated to facilitate the restart of cruising.  Based on what we read in the press and on blogs I think we are looking at late 2nd quarter as the earliest with some time in the 3rd quarter as most likely.  And even then there are going to be lots of ports that will refuse cruise ships.  As an example I find it hard to believe that Canada is going to allow any cruise ships in 2021 which would also cause the collapse of the Alaskan cruise season.  

 

Hank

[Hawaiidan]

On 1/15/2021 at 5:46 AM, Aloha 1 said:

Word is O will be cancelling all April cruises shortly.

I  fully expect May-June-July- to follow suit for  europe

[Hawaiidan]

56 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I continue to believe that 100% mandatory vaccination (for all onboard....both crew and passengers) will be the ultimate trigger to restart cruises.  This will be driven not just by the CDC and other health authorities but by International travel standards which will likely require proof of vaccination to enter most countries, board airlines, etc.    So perhaps we need to look at how long it will take to get crews and enough passengers vaccinated to facilitate the restart of cruising.  Based on what we read in the press and on blogs I think we are looking at late 2nd quarter as the earliest with some time in the 3rd quarter as most likely.  And even then there are going to be lots of ports that will refuse cruise ships.  As an example I find it hard to believe that Canada is going to allow any cruise ships in 2021 which would also cause the collapse of the Alaskan cruise season.  

 

Hank

It is going to be suppy and demand..... they just can not produce that many this year it seems.... despite all the politicians bluster of "we are going to do this or that"....   

[GeorgesGal]

On 1/5/2021 at 4:41 PM, TrulyBlonde said:

For those who may be looking for cheap digs: SF Chronicle

The SF Bay Area and New York City were among the most prevalent out-migration U.S. markets in 2020, according to U-Haul.

 

Unfortunately they all bring their politics with them when they move!  

[GeorgesGal]

On 1/8/2021 at 5:56 PM, pinotlover said:

I believe so. I believe it is currently a 13 or 14 day cruise. 4/30 is probably a bit early to expect the EU to lift the 7 day cruise limit.

 

Also not sure if O can get a crew assembled by then and vaccinated. Ship is still in cool or cold storage.

 

Good Luck!

I'm booked for a 12 day on Marina to Norwegian Fjords, no EU countries involved.  Hopefully this one on June 25 2021 will be a go!

[Tranquility Base]

8 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

It is going to be suppy and demand..... they just can not produce that many this year it seems.... despite all the politicians bluster of "we are going to do this or that"....   

There will probably be over 10 BILLION doses required around the world.

Of course there are going to be supply issues.

 

[deadzone1003]

On 1/16/2021 at 7:02 AM, pinotlover said:

In answering the question of the OP, I will first define, for purposes of this post, cruising. I’m defining it as going on multi day/ month trips and visiting random ports of call. Not how it is/was defined last year by the EU and CDC.

 

To me, the answer to the OP becomes another question. When can the cruise lines overcome the multiple logistical barriers and get their entire crew vaccinated, then to the ships to get them out of cool/cold lay up?

 

I was reading an article talking about the European river cruises. Almost the entire crew, on the riverboats, are European. The primary countries, if they so desire, can declare those crew members essential personnel at any time and get them vaccinated for a season starting in May or June. If the hopeful passengers get their vaccinations, that industry has a reasonable chance of success in 2021. An industry and jobs restored.

 

Ocean cruises are a different beast. Crew comes from multiple parts of the world and from countries that may only recognize small, if any, gain for moving those often young healthy workers up the priority ladder. A simple case in point is the entertainment staff which includes the social director, often the ass’t CD, and the CD. Those personnel are often either US or Canadian. Is the US going to suddenly move a healthy 22-25 year old up the priority list, for receiving the vaccine , so to fly off to work on a cruise ship? When might that young singer or dancer otherwise expect to get their shots so to work? Until they get their shots, many countries aren’t going to allow them to enter the country to get on a ship. 
 

It’s very early in the vaccination process both here and abroad. The distribution logistics for each country is different. Getting crews assembled, fully vaccinated ( that’s a month plus process) , to the ships, and the ships prepared to sail will be a long slow process. 

If countries are perceived as being too difficult to work with ( read the US), those ships may well be last to sail in 2021, if by then.
 

I believe that most of the ocean cruise passengers that want to cruise will be fully vaccinated by 3rd Qtr, around July 1. Can the cruise lines have their crews and ships ready by then? Probably a few, but not all. The next question becomes “ which ships and itineraries gets prioritized and start sailing earlier instead of later”?

Fully agreed with your scenario except your July 1 prediction unless your "most" is just a simple majority.  I am a little more pessimistic about supply.   

[clo]

1 hour ago, GeorgesGal said:

I'm booked for a 12 day on Marina to Norwegian Fjords, no EU countries involved.  Hopefully this one on June 25 2021 will be a go!

Norway shut down pretty quickly last year. The country shut down before their local cruise line Hurtigruten.

[susiesan]

18 hours ago, Hawaiidan said:

I would suspect O will follow....  I now do nor expect the August/Sept cruises to happen. going to look at 2022.

I already booked a Baltic with NCL for the same time period, August 16 2022, as I have booked on Marina now, Aug. 29 2021. Deposit was only $250. Almost the same cruise with the same ports except this is Stockholm to Amsterdam.

[Hlitner]

3 hours ago, Hawaiidan said:

It is going to be suppy and demand..... they just can not produce that many this year it seems.... despite all the politicians bluster of "we are going to do this or that"....   

No doubt.  But I suspect the cruise lines will not wait until 100% of the world is vaccinated.  Given that the norm for folks accepting vaccinations is between 50 and 60% we may well be able to meet the demand in the USA and much of Western Europe by June.  But the issue for the cruise lines is what they need to do to be able to restart and get some ports to open up to ships.  Every attempt to cruise without a vaccination requirement has ended in failure although in some cases it did take a few voyages.   If somebody can come up with a better idea then 100% vaccination policies they will certainly have a big audience.

 

Hank

[mofrances]

I'm curious as to how cruise lines contemplating mandatory vaccinations to start back up are looking at the issue of children.  Specifically, children under 16 who are not able to be vaccinated even if parents want them to be. So all those lines that cater to families will have to decide either to say no to kids and yes to full vaccination or vice versa.  I have a cruise scheduled in late June with my son who will luckily be 18 by then so not really affecting me.  But it did make me wonder when I was thinking about whether my daughter age 14 would be allowed on board.

 

I know most of you don't believe that a late June cruise will be a go, but this is a graduation trip for a high school senior who has obviously not had a memorable senior year and I am reluctant to break the news of a cancellation to him.  So crossing my fingers!!  Also hoping we will both be vaccinated in time.  Come on Johnson&Johnson vaccine - do me a solid!

[Nashna]

We were delighted to receive our Pfizer shots on Tuesday.  Sadly, we arrived home to find that our Oceania cruise was cancelled.  We had not expected it to go, so this was not a big shock.  Here in Virginia, many of us over the age of 65, teachers and health care workers are receiving the shots.  We were lucky to get ours as the state has now run out of vaccine and is waiting for new shipments before accepting more appointments.  I am hopeful that the dismal federal response will greatly improve in the coming months now that we are under new management.  Let's hope!

[mrlevin]

57 minutes ago, Nashna said:

We were lucky to get ours as the state has now run out of vaccine and is waiting for new shipments before accepting more appointments.  I am hopeful that the dismal federal response will greatly improve in the coming months now that we are under new management.  Let's hope!

 

As of yesterday Virginia had just used 37% of the vaccines that they had received; sounds like it is a Virginia distribution issue rather than a federal government issue.

[Flatbush Flyer]

43 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

 

As of yesterday Virginia had just used 37% of the vaccines that they had received; sounds like it is a Virginia distribution issue rather than a federal government issue.

FWIW: We are UCSF patients (University of California San Francisco, which is a huge medical operation criss-crossing the Bay Area) waiting for notification of where/when to go. Imagine our dismay when we heard on the local TV news that UCSF has only received 8,000 doses so far.

[RJB]

4 hours ago, mrlevin said:

 

As of yesterday Virginia had just used 37% of the vaccines that they had received; sounds like it is a Virginia distribution issue rather than a federal government issue.

Sure does sound like a state issue.   Maybe the state needs new management.

[YoHoHo]

3 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

FWIW: We are UCSF patients (University of California San Francisco, which is a huge medical operation criss-crossing the Bay Area) waiting for notification of where/when to go. Imagine our dismay when we heard on the local TV news that UCSF has only received 8,000 doses so far.

Imagine our dismay when we heard Pfizer-BioNtech would not be shipping any vaccine to Canada for a week. And we were out as of last week. Original claim was shutting down production to improve systems to be more efficient. 

 

I am annoyed at this announcement, and whomever wrote our contracts and our sluggish roll-out. However, on a personal level I'm not in the camp struggling to get on a list. I did not anticipate having a working vaccine this soon (hurray to the scientists!) and acknowledge, even though I am in a vulnerable group there are a ton of folks ahead of me that should be given the dose first. And they are getting done here with what we have received. Our plan is good but execution not so much. In the meantime I stay as as safe as practical - it is not like we don't know what to do.

 

Reading post here and elsewhere it is interesting, but not unexpected if we recall the Great Toilet Paper Hoarding  of 2019, the change from wishy-washy on a vaccine to travelling to other states, even countries (shame) to get a shot. 

 

I hope all those that need to get vaccinated are able to at least get on a list for an appointment soon. I suspect there is some comfort knowing there is one with your name on it even if you must wait.

 

“Be kind, be calm and be safe”