2 metre rule changing to 1 metre rule? Good news?

[davecttr]

8 minutes ago, NoFlyGuy said:

 

Sweden hasn't been in a lock down worthy of the name.

So why isn't their situation far worse than ours? 

Different ways their society  works, lower population density? high proportion of households are single people.

Actually they are not that much different. if their population was the same as ours they would have about 32000 deaths.

 

Data from yesterday deaths per million people

UK - 608

Spain - 580

Italy - 565

Sweden - 477

France - 450

Germany - 106

 

difficult to directly compare countries though

[brian1]

37 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

Italy was giving our government warnings well before our lockdown that we needed to take immediate action.  You'll remember what was going on in Italian hospitals at that time.

 

Unfortunately, our Prime Minister chose to concentrate on other things and no heed was taken of the warnings from Italy.  We now know that if we'd locked down even one week sooner, thousands of lives would have been saved.  Two weeks earlier -even more.

 

More and more people realise that now, which is why his popularity has plummeted recently.  Our government now has one of the lowest approval ratings in the world.  Fighting this virus requires trust in governments, and ours has lost it.

It was more important here because if had got hold in the South it would be a massacre.The South is ignored financially and although a lot of the best doctors come from here,the lack of good medical facilities are dire.

[davecttr]

2 minutes ago, brian1 said:

If you're a fat bloke like I was (just lost 3 stone) the second one would be no good cos my belly would still be touching you,lol.

Yep, me too but I have only lost 2.5 stone and when I lose another stone I will be merely overweight not obese. Another stone and a half and my weight will be normal range.

[KnowTheScore]

12 hours ago, wowzz said:

Can you please provide your evidence for this.

 

There are various.  Here is one:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1?versioned=true

 

HCoV-19 (SARS-2) has caused >88,000 reported illnesses with a current case-fatality ratio of ~2%. Here, we investigate the stability of viable HCoV-19 on surfaces and in aerosols in comparison with SARS-CoV-1. Overall, stability is very similar between HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1. We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. Both viruses show relatively long viability on stainless steel and polypropylene compared to copper or cardboard: the median half-life estimate for HCoV-19 is around 13 hours on steel and around 16 hours on polypropylene. Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days.

 

.

[zap99]

12 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

Masks, masks masks, face coverings, even the WHO only seem concerned with masks in crowded places and mainly indoors, which is what our govt now advise.

Prior to this we were all being asked to stay home and only shop for essentials and go out only for exercise, and in the open air and keep our distance.  In these circumstances I doubt that masks would have had any impact whatsoever on the spread of the virus, unless perhaps your experts are little green men from Mars?

The Martians were defeated by a common virus. Any doubts , refer to Mr H G Wells😷

[brian1]

Had my first haircut just now since the day before lockdown,just over 3 months.Hair wash mandatory,disposable plastic cape and although we should have wore masks we didn't.Bit too laid back on both our parts maybe.

[terrierjohn]

29 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

They now accept that they got it wrong.  Our government is still refusing to accept that it failed us.  We now have the fourth highest death rate per capita in the entire world, and the OECD said yesterday that our economic position is probably the worst among leading nations.

 

This has been disastrously handled in the UK.

When was the the last accurate OECD forecast?

[Josy1953]

Just now, brian1 said:

Had my first haircut just now since the day before lockdown,just over 3 months.Hair wash mandatory,disposable plastic cape and although we should have wore masks we didn't.Bit too laid back on both our parts maybe.

Wish we could get haircuts here.  My husband has awful hair when it grows, he flattens it when it is wet after he washes it but as it drys it sticks up so he looks like a hedgehog🦔

[Son of Anarchy]

36 minutes ago, NoFlyGuy said:

 

Sweden hasn't been in a lock down worthy of the name.

So why isn't their situation far worse than ours? 

 

When taking into account the Cummings fiasco and since then the protests, I don't think our lockdown can be worthy of the name either, unfortunately.

[wowzz]

30 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Different ways their society  works, lower population density? high proportion of households are single people.

Actually they are not that much different. if their population was the same as ours they would have about 32000 deaths.

 

Data from yesterday deaths per million people

UK - 608

Spain - 580

Italy - 565

Sweden - 477

France - 450

Germany - 106

 

difficult to directly compare countries though

The problem is that different countries count deaths from CV19 in different ways. For example, some only include deaths if the deceased actually was tested positive for CV19, whereas others include deaths where CV19 was a contributory factor. Difficult to make direct comparisons. 

However, whatever way you look at it, the UK has performed badly.

[wowzz]

29 minutes ago, KnowTheScore said:

 

There are various.  Here is one:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1?versioned=true

 

HCoV-19 (SARS-2) has caused >88,000 reported illnesses with a current case-fatality ratio of ~2%. Here, we investigate the stability of viable HCoV-19 on surfaces and in aerosols in comparison with SARS-CoV-1. Overall, stability is very similar between HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1. We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. Both viruses show relatively long viability on stainless steel and polypropylene compared to copper or cardboard: the median half-life estimate for HCoV-19 is around 13 hours on steel and around 16 hours on polypropylene. Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days.

 

.

You will note that the article made no comment about the effect of atmospheric conditions.  Extrapolating  conditions where there is absolutely no air movement (ie laboratory conditions) to form a basis of an argument is unsound - it would have been useful if the researchers had provided examples of  aerosol viral load transfer in a real world environment,   

[NoFlyGuy]

59 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

They now accept that they got it wrong.  Our government is still refusing to accept that it failed us.  We now have the fourth highest death rate per capita in the entire world, and the OECD said yesterday that our economic position is probably the worst among leading nations.

 

This has been disastrously handled in the UK.

 

Accepting they got it wrong doesn't answer the question.

It the timing of a lock down was so important,the population of Sweden should have been decimated by now. They also kept their schools open and allowed gatherings of up to 50 people, yet still look likely to have a lower death rate than the UK.

[Harry Peterson]

38 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

When was the the last accurate OECD forecast?

Forecasts are forecasts. The OECD has a perfectly respectable reputation. Unlike this government, which has been criticised by its own watchdog for issuing misleading and incorrect statistics on Covid-19.

[kalos]

26 minutes ago, wowzz said:

You will note that the article made no comment about the effect of atmospheric conditions.  Extrapolating  conditions where there is absolutely no air movement (ie laboratory conditions) to form a basis of an argument is unsound - it would have been useful if the researchers had provided examples of  aerosol viral load transfer in a real world environment,   

Here's one who does Wowzz....

 

Keith Neal, emeritus professor of the epidemiology of infectious diseases at the University of Nottingham, said “The risk outside is incredibly low especially if you stay two-metres apart…

Droplets fall to the ground quite quickly and aerosols are dispersed by air movements and even more by breezes and winds.”

 

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/coronavirus-catch-outside-indoors-why-get-covid-19-explained-426628

Edited June 12, 2020 by kalos

[wowzz]

5 minutes ago, kalos said:

Here's one who does Wowzz....

 

Keith Neal, emeritus professor of the epidemiology of infectious diseases at the University of Nottingham, said “The risk outside is incredibly low especially if you stay two-metres apart…

Droplets fall to the ground quite quickly and aerosols are dispersed by air movements and even more by breezes and winds.”

 

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/coronavirus-catch-outside-indoors-why-get-covid-19-explained-426628

Thank you. Strangely enough, Knowthescore made no mention of this and similar findings, when he said that droplets would stay in the air for 3 hours !

Edited June 12, 2020 by wowzz

[brian1]

12 hours ago, davecttr said:

I rely on public transport as I don't own a car and have destroyed numerous handkerchiefs in 4 vain attempts to make my own face covering. Checked online and Lloyds pharmacy had boxes of 50 for less than £33. Ordered a box on Tuesday morning and it arrived this afternoon. Triple layer etc etc, now I can go on the bus next week. Fits my face easily. I reckon the supply of masks should be easier as they are probably now making them by the billion.

Welcome to the new world order.This window was full of sexy lingerie before lockdown.They've even got an English supermodel to demonstrate.The ironic thing is that the only shops that sell them are the Chinese shops that sell everything here.

[wowzz]

1 hour ago, Harry Peterson said:

The OECD has a perfectly respectable reputation.

The thing is Harry, no one ever goes back 5 years to see if the forecasts made in, say 2015, were in fact accurate. And if, as is likely,  they are inaccurate, the researchers can always say, "oh, we couldn't be expected to imagine that such and such would happen"  

[terrierjohn]

3 hours ago, NoFlyGuy said:

 

Accepting they got it wrong doesn't answer the question.

It the timing of a lock down was so important,the population of Sweden should have been decimated by now. They also kept their schools open and allowed gatherings of up to 50 people, yet still look likely to have a lower death rate than the UK.

Agreed, the timing of the lockdown might have started the slow down a little sooner, but there is no way you can extrapolate the number of deaths or lives saved from this assumption. Our daily death numbers are still way above those for Spain and Italy at the same time after lockdown.

[grapau27]

[Adawn47]

4 hours ago, brian1 said:

Had my first haircut just now since the day before lockdown,just over 3 months.Hair wash mandatory,disposable plastic cape and although we should have wore masks we didn't.Bit too laid back on both our parts maybe.

Another 7lbs lost👦. We'll done

Avril 

[kalos]

1 hour ago, grapau27 said:

The future 

 

Funny enough Mrs K  and I was only saying "can you imagine a fortune teller forecasting this lot" 

 

And ... " You will go on cruise critics to look for cruising advice but this will have changed to

you will congratulate each other on getting your own money refunded !" 

This will be the most popular topic maybe this year! 

I can imagine most peoples answer early last year to this but I don't think most would have been printable .

[daiB]

Interesting discussion. But where did the idea come from that anyone in government is actually thinking of reducing down from 2 m any time soon.

 

As a school govenor i have been told children will not now all be back at school this term. So that is 5 weeks more. There was also some doubt about the restart in September. We are having to plan for both eventualities. 

[Harry Peterson]

3 minutes ago, daiB said:

Interesting discussion. But where did the idea come from that anyone in government is actually thinking of reducing down from 2 m any time soon.

 

As a school govenor i have been told children will not now all be back at school this term. So that is 5 weeks more. There was also some doubt about the restart in September. We are having to plan for both eventualities. 

Conjecture, like pretty much everything at the moment.  Plus pressure from businesses to make them viable, pressure from the Right of the Conservative Party, and political pressure to find a way to get the schools reopened.

[daiB]

2 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

Conjecture, like pretty much everything at the moment.  Plus pressure from businesses to make them viable, pressure from the Right of the Conservative Party, and political pressure to find a way to get the schools reopened.

Which part is conjecture? There is a great push from the right to open schools so staff can go back to work. Many can’t do that if they have to look after their children. 
 

Up to the middle of July, the no reduction is fact, as we cannot open the school.  September is speculation. However reopening schools is key to opening up the economy. 

[Harry Peterson]

3 minutes ago, daiB said:

Which part is conjecture? There is a great push from the right to open schools so staff can go back to work. Many can’t do that if they have to look after their children. 
 

Up to the middle of July, the no reduction is fact, as we cannot open the school.  September is speculation. However reopening schools is key to opening up the economy. 

Conjecture as to what the government is considering.