Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[Ken the cruiser]

 

@Syracusefan44posted this on another thread a few minutes ago and I thought it was "vaccine" newsworthy enough to post it here as well. The article hasn't been posted this evening in the Miami Herald yet, but here's an advance of the hopeful breaking news. 

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/taydolven/status/1387590148615987204

 

Update: Looks like USATODAY just released the story as well.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2021/04/28/cdc-cruises-could-restart-july/4883450001/

 

Editorial note: What a great piece of news to lead off page 200 on this thread!! 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[K.T.B.]

On 7/9/2020 at 10:14 PM, K.T.B. said:

Yes it is.

 

I just hope that light at the end of the tunnel is not an oncoming train, however.  

 

I'm certainly glad my initial comment in this thread didn't come true!  

 

Wouldn't it be ironic if cruising restarted on July 9, 2021?  One year exactly from when this thread began.

Edited April 29, 2021 by K.T.B.

[nocl]

42 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

I'm certainly glad my initial comment in this thread didn't come true!  

 

Wouldn't it be ironic if cruising restarted on July 9, 2021?  One year exactly from when this thread began.

It is basically that if at least 95% of the passengers and 98% of the crew is vaccinated the cruise can bypass the test cruises. 

 

The rest of the CSO remains intact with some minor modifications. 

The cruise lines still need to complete their port agreement, supply their protocols to CDC for approval and submit the required documents signed by senior management for cruising to resume.

 

These minor changes involve accepting antigen testing at the pier instead of PCR in advance.  Allowing a master port agreement with multiple ports instead of individual port agreements as long as all parties from each port sign the agreement. Fairly minor in the scheme of things.

 

Basically the cruise lines could get that done and be able to start in July, but only if they do those steps as required by the CSO.

 

Now lets see if the cruise lines actually start working on the agreements.

[hcat]

Air travel

Posted by harkinmr

"......When this pandemic began, I personally felt that non-essential travel on airlines should have been stopped.  Having a husband who had to travel for his job, non-essential air travel put him at more risk.  I still believe that non-essential travel should be discouraged, but that guidance is not being followed obviously.  The economics involved in keeping the airline industry going has been the primary driver...... "

 

Hard to decide what is and is not essential. People need to travel for many reasons.

 

 

cruise travel

Big job for cruiselines to confirm vaccination status of crew and  passengers.

 

vaccines

it appears each company will decide the time period for needing a booster.  But I assume  diff people will be losing immunity at diff time spans.  Do you think they will be able to accurately figure this out ? ( I do read all the technical  posts but  alot of it is over my head)

 

And do you think the booster shots can be handled more like annual flu shots at local pharmacies?  (No long lines, mass events, etc?)  Or will the numbers require something similar to how the vaccine is/was done initially.

 

  Where we live there is a noticeable  drop off in demand and some have not been returning for the second shots. How does that affect herd immunity?

Edited April 29, 2021 by hcat

[mayleeman]

Left unsaid in the CDC notice is how the cruise line must verify that someone has been vaxxed.....

[4774Papa]

Our October 22 transatlantic from Rome to FLL is looking better and better.

[K.T.B.]

1 hour ago, mayleeman said:

Left unsaid in the CDC notice is how the cruise line must verify that someone has been vaxxed.....

 

We all have those cards.  Granted, they're easily faked, but it's all that we have for now.  They'll know for sure about the crew however.

[JFontaine]

17 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

We all have those cards.  Granted, they're easily faked, but it's all that we have for now.  They'll know for sure about the crew however.

In NY State we have vaccine passports.  My vaccine status has been verified by the state via an app on my phone, which I have a screenshot of (my mom doesn't have a smartphone and I was able to access her vaccine passport on my phone). Note the passport is only valid for six months from the date of second vaccination ad of now. 

[TeeRick]

16 hours ago, nocl said:

Does the company you work for publish preliminary immunity duration data mid-trial?  I do not recall any others releasing that information prior to having a complete understanding of the duration and completion of the trial end point analysis and certainly not without discussions with the FDA.

It is your last paragraph here that reinforces my point and I agree strongly.  CEO's of public companies in the US really do not comment on trial data before it is released.  A few months ago AZ got in trouble for this with their vaccine.  So I find it unusual that these corporate leaders are making these type of comments about need for boosters without any data being released beyond 6 months (AB data which was still very good).  They very well might know something about data in their trials but they are not supposed to say anything about it publicly.  This is my only point really that I keep coming to here.  

[ipeeinthepool]

2 hours ago, mayleeman said:

Left unsaid in the CDC notice is how the cruise line must verify that someone has been vaxxed.....

Really interesting given that the federal government has taken the position that they don't support a vaccine passport.

[TeeRick]

21 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Really interesting given that the federal government has taken the position that they don't support a vaccine passport.

The cruise line will verify for their crew through documentation.  Crew members are asked to submit proof of vaccination (from their country).  Not sure what that documentation actually is at this point.  At least for RCG ships.  But passengers?  It might be that you are asked by a simple health questionnaire with no other proof required.  For those who signed up for Millennium out of St. Maarten, what actual vaccine proof is being required?  Anybody know yet? 

[mimbecky]

9 hours ago, nocl said:

Basically the cruise lines could get that done and be able to start in July

Awesome news, but so many other questions....masks/no masks.....what countries will take us.....will we be able to wander ports on our own or with individual tours......etc.  I'll tell you though, right now I think I'd take a cruise to nowhere!

[Ken the cruiser]

2 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

Our October 22 transatlantic from Rome to FLL is looking better and better.

We're on the Apex out of Barcelona to FLL on Oct 21and it definitely is.

[mayleeman]

@TeeRick @nocl I went back to that article stimulating your discussion. I think you may both be giving too much credence to the reporter's paraphrasing!

 

[Mac7881]

Quick question from a Canadian who will be vaccinated with the AZ vaccine...  As this vaccine is not approved in the US, will it be recognized by the US?  Or will I still be considered as not vaccinated.  Just thinking out loud.

[Ken the cruiser]

9 hours ago, nocl said:

It is basically that if at least 95% of the passengers and 98% of the crew is vaccinated the cruise can bypass the test cruises. 

 

The rest of the CSO remains intact with some minor modifications. 

The cruise lines still need to complete their port agreement, supply their protocols to CDC for approval and submit the required documents signed by senior management for cruising to resume.

 

These minor changes involve accepting antigen testing at the pier instead of PCR in advance.  Allowing a master port agreement with multiple ports instead of individual port agreements as long as all parties from each port sign the agreement. Fairly minor in the scheme of things.

 

Basically the cruise lines could get that done and be able to start in July, but only if they do those steps as required by the CSO.

 

Now lets see if the cruise lines actually start working on the agreements.

You're exactly right, to a point. The CSO protocols still need to be complied with. IMHO, though, the option to be able for a cruise ship to bypass the Phase 2B "no revenue" test cruise requirement before being able to be Phase 3 certified and schedule a Phase 4 restricted cruise out of a US port, such as Ft Lauderdale, IS a big deal. Also, IMHO requiring 95% of the passengers and 98% of the crew to be vaccinated IS a big deal, which I interpret to mean no children on those cruises. But, what's also encouraging is what I read this morning with regards to the CSO:

 

The report went on to quote a spokesperson noting that cruise lines could begin sailing in mid-July, but also citing compliance with the CSO, which cruise lines have called unworkable. 

It is expected that the CDC will soon simplify the CSO, expediting timelines to approve restart plans.

 

But for some of us restricted cruising out of Ft Lauderdale starting in mid July, maybe on the Edge and/or Equinox, is looking a lot more promising than it did 24 hours ago! Not saying they're there yet, but my sunglasses are ready for all that sunshine once we are able to get out of this tunnel! 😎 

 

CDC Warms to the Idea of July Cruising - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[K.T.B.]

Whether accurate or not, it feels like the outside pressures of the cruise lines, congress, and the general public has forced the CDC to acquiesce to softening their stance and making things simpler.  Now it's up to the lines to step up to the plate if they want to start in mid-July. No more grandstanding.  They got the CDC to blink, now they need to follow through.

[Ken the cruiser]

3 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Whether accurate or not, it feels like the outside pressures of the cruise lines, congress, and the general public has forced the CDC to acquiesce to softening their stance and making things simpler.  Now it's up to the lines to step up to the plate if they want to start in mid-July. No more grandstanding.  They got the CDC to blink, now they need to follow through.

Exactly!

[TeeRick]

16 minutes ago, Mac7881 said:

Quick question from a Canadian who will be vaccinated with the AZ vaccine...  As this vaccine is not approved in the US, will it be recognized by the US?  Or will I still be considered as not vaccinated.  Just thinking out loud.

Are you asking in terms of entry into the US?  It is not approved (yet) in the USA because it's US phase 3 clinical study results have not been fully submitted to the FDA for emergency review in the same way as Pfizer, Moderna and J&J.  AZ states that they are progressing in doing so.  The worldwide clinical studies and post-approval data in countries such as the UK show effectiveness.  And the US is shipping excess AZ vaccine to Canada, Mexico and now India.  So I would think it to be rather strange if you are vaccinated with it in Canada but are not considered vaccinated in the US.  Now if you were vaccinated with one of the less effective vaccines from China then that might be a whole different story for entry into the US.

[paulh84]

10 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Whether accurate or not, it feels like the outside pressures of the cruise lines, congress, and the general public has forced the CDC to acquiesce to softening their stance and making things simpler.  Now it's up to the lines to step up to the plate if they want to start in mid-July. No more grandstanding.  They got the CDC to blink, now they need to follow through.

 

Not so sure about that. In the grand scheme of things, the CDC has not wavered in more than a year. CSO still stands. Requirements still need met. COVID regulation lives on. Cruises were not a priority of COVID management. Vaccinations and controlling the spread were the top priority for the first 100 days of the new administration. Today is day 99.

 

These 'productive' conversations between CDC and cruiselines also apparently stated almost exactly at the point where we started to reach 50% of the US population 18+ having at least one dose. I'm not sold that this is all coincidental and the CDC buckled to the pressure of some angry cruisers. 

[K.T.B.]

56 minutes ago, paulh84 said:

 

Not so sure about that. In the grand scheme of things, the CDC has not wavered in more than a year. CSO still stands. Requirements still need met. COVID regulation lives on. Cruises were not a priority of COVID management. Vaccinations and controlling the spread were the top priority for the first 100 days of the new administration. Today is day 99.

 

These 'productive' conversations between CDC and cruiselines also apparently stated almost exactly at the point where we started to reach 50% of the US population 18+ having at least one dose. I'm not sold that this is all coincidental and the CDC buckled to the pressure of some angry cruisers. 

 

Hence the reason I said, "it feels like."

[Fouremco]

3 hours ago, K.T.B. said:

 

We all have those cards.  Granted, they're easily faked, but it's all that we have for now.  They'll know for sure about the crew however.

While most US residents received them with their vaccinations, there are numerous posts on CC by people who didn't receive a card. Then there's the entire rest of the world. Bottom line is that CDC cards alone aren't the answer to the question of what will constitute proof of vaccination. 

[Ken the cruiser]

1 hour ago, Ken the cruiser said:

You're exactly right, to a point. The CSO protocols still need to be complied with. IMHO, though, the option to be able for a cruise ship to bypass the Phase 2B "no revenue" test cruise requirement before being able to be Phase 3 certified and schedule a Phase 4 restricted cruise out of a US port, such as Ft Lauderdale, IS a big deal. Also, IMHO requiring 95% of the passengers and 98% of the crew to be vaccinated IS a big deal, which I interpret to mean no children on those cruises. But, what's also encouraging is what I read this morning with regards to the CSO:

 

The report went on to quote a spokesperson noting that cruise lines could begin sailing in mid-July, but also citing compliance with the CSO, which cruise lines have called unworkable. 

It is expected that the CDC will soon simplify the CSO, expediting timelines to approve restart plans.

 

But for some of us restricted cruising out of Ft Lauderdale starting in mid July, maybe on the Edge and/or Equinox, is looking a lot more promising than it did 24 hours ago! Not saying they're there yet, but my sunglasses are ready for all that sunshine once we are able to get out of this tunnel! 😎 

 

CDC Warms to the Idea of July Cruising - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

 

Here is another adjustment to the CSO the CDC offered up yesterday evening which shortens the lead time for the Phase 3 certification application process. Definitely another positive step afforded the cruise lines to get the Phase 4 restricted cruises underway by hopefully mid July.

 

Last night, the agency reportedly told cruise lines they would be able to skip the test cruises if 98% of crew and 95% of passengers are vaccinated. As well, the 60-day lead time for the application for a certificate to sail has been cut to five days.

 

Royal Caribbean: Mid-July Restart ‘Very Realistic’ | Cruzely.com

[Ken the cruiser]

31 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Here is another adjustment to the CSO the CDC offered up yesterday evening which shortens the lead time for the Phase 3 certification application process. Definitely another positive step afforded the cruise lines to get the Phase 4 restricted cruises underway by hopefully mid July.

 

Last night, the agency reportedly told cruise lines they would be able to skip the test cruises if 98% of crew and 95% of passengers are vaccinated. As well, the 60-day lead time for the application for a certificate to sail has been cut to five days.

 

Royal Caribbean: Mid-July Restart ‘Very Realistic’ | Cruzely.com

Here's the CNBC interview of CEO Richard Fain this morning which definitely puts a positive note on the potential of restarting restricted cruises in mid July.

Royal Caribbean Group CEO on return to cruises: 'We're feeling pretty good' (cnbc.com)

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, Fouremco said:

While most US residents received them with their vaccinations, there are numerous posts on CC by people who didn't receive a card. Then there's the entire rest of the world. Bottom line is that CDC cards alone aren't the answer to the question of what will constitute proof of vaccination. 

The CDC cards are not the answer worldwide.  But I am really not sure what document would suffice.  It has not been invented yet.