A promising vaccine on the horizon? Even Dr. Fauci is encouraged by the results so far

[chipmaster]

12 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

We should just give up; no posts with anything positive seemed to be allowed in this group.

 

You can hope for the best, but if you don't plan for the more likely outcome, then you'd be here wouldn't you.  Open up for the economy!

 

What you see below is exactly the outcome of not addressing reality but instead going against what science says, positive "wish" versus put in place everything you know, and that isn't light, bleach and hydroxychloroquine

 

I like everyone else is cabin fever bound, 150 days no flight, no hotel, nor cruise that I wanted for this summer either, summer trip to Canada canceled twice, and looking ever grim for Holidays too.

 

Did everyone note, no blackfriday rush my favorite shopping day is canceled now, LOL

 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by chipmaster

[Roz]

5 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

You can hope for the best, but if you don't plan for the more likely outcome, then you'd be here wouldn't you.  

 

 

I just saw John Roberts interview Dr. Fauci, and the more likely outcome is an effective vaccine within the next 6 months.  It's more than hope and wishful thinking, researchers are getting real, tangible results.  

 

[ontheweb]

1 minute ago, Roz said:

 

I just saw John Roberts interview Dr. Fauci, and the more likely outcome is an effective vaccine within the next 6 months.  It's more than hope and wishful thinking, researchers are getting real, tangible results.  

 

That's Dr. Fauci; he does NOT post in this group. If he did he would know that 4 years is an absolute minimum. He would know that successful trials only exist to boost the stock price and make money for insiders. He would know that a great many would not take the vaccine because it will be years until they would know the terrible side effects. He would know that you would be lucky to have the vaccine be 50% effective.

 

And he would be reminded several times that Dr. Fauci had previously predicted that an AIDS vaccine was imminent.

 

I probably left out some of the negativity we get when anyone says there is something promising on the horizon.

[chipmaster]

3 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

That's Dr. Fauci; he does NOT post in this group. If he did he would know that 4 years is an absolute minimum. He would know that successful trials only exist to boost the stock price and make money for insiders. He would know that a great many would not take the vaccine because it will be years until they would know the terrible side effects. He would know that you would be lucky to have the vaccine be 50% effective.

 

And he would be reminded several times that Dr. Fauci had previously predicted that an AIDS vaccine was imminent.

 

I probably left out some of the negativity we get when anyone says there is something promising on the horizon.

 

What reality has been, and what we wish it will be.   Everything has gone as we expected with this pandemic and our response.

 

Typical.. ie some are shorter and some are longer.... 

 

What we are planning, LOL.  If this was a mission to moon or mars, which is of equal complexity and uncertainty would you get on that ship?

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by chipmaster

[Roz]

@chipmaster, it seems as though you take some perverse delight in the thought of millions of people dying by 2033. 

[cruisemom42]

30 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

What you see below is exactly the outcome of not addressing reality but instead going against what science says, positive "wish" versus put in place everything you know, and that isn't light, bleach and hydroxychloroquine

 

 

 

So....it sounds like what you are saying is that we should listen to the science. Well, the scientists are telling us there is going to be a vaccine, sooner than later. I'm not arguing that our (non-scientist) leaders haven't made mistakes -- huge ones -- that have helped land us where we are now.

 

But that's an entirely different kettle of fish to taking about back room deals and shady science.

 

[TheOldBear]

1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

Veterinary vaccines of limited effectiveness developed many years ago aren't exactly a beacon of hope or foundation for development of effective vaccines for humans. As I said no human vaccine for SARS was ever able to be developed. Funding for the vaccine research eventually dried up because SARS never spread very far and was quickly  no longer a threat to humans.

 

I'm aware of the new mRNA vaccines under development. They could be a major advance, they could be a failure.

 

It's nice to be hopeful but let's remember that about 90% of vaccines that advance to human trials never make it to market...but with so many potential vaccines under development and all the government funding of COVID-19 vaccine research perhaps the chances of success are better than they were in the past.

 

It was my understanding that the SARS / MERS vaccine trials were abandoned in part due to their phase three trials unable to demonstrate significant protection - by the time that trial phase ended, there was not enough circulating in the wild to see if the placebo was less effective than the trial vaccine. 

Not all the SARS/MERS vaccine efforts were wasted - a couple of the current vaccine trials involve a few tweaks to the abandoned SARS-COV-1 virus vaccine to produce a SARS-COV-2 [covid19] candidate.

[njhorseman]

54 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

That's Dr. Fauci; he does NOT post in this group. If he did he would know that 4 years is an absolute minimum. He would know that successful trials only exist to boost the stock price and make money for insiders. He would know that a great many would not take the vaccine because it will be years until they would know the terrible side effects. He would know that you would be lucky to have the vaccine be 50% effective.

 

And he would be reminded several times that Dr. Fauci had previously predicted that an AIDS vaccine was imminent.

 

I probably left out some of the negativity we get when anyone says there is something promising on the horizon.

The fact is that as of now four years has been the minimum. I have no problem with Fauci giving as optimistic a spin as he can on the situation because of his position in the public eye, but if you asked him directly, unless he's ignorant or a liar, and I think he's neither, he would have to say that to date no vaccine has been developed in under four years. That's a fact and good scientists like Dr. Fauci won't dispute facts. 

[njhorseman]

25 minutes ago, TheOldBear said:

 

It was my understanding that the SARS / MERS vaccine trials were abandoned in part due to their phase three trials unable to demonstrate significant protection - by the time that trial phase ended, there was not enough circulating in the wild to see if the placebo was less effective than the trial vaccine. 

Not all the SARS/MERS vaccine efforts were wasted - a couple of the current vaccine trials involve a few tweaks to the abandoned SARS-COV-1 virus vaccine to produce a SARS-COV-2 [covid19] candidate.

They were still doing research for over a decade after SARS disappeared, so it was not just a matter of an insufficient number of subjects to test. Government and industry were unwilling to put any more money into something for which there was no perceived need. Read this article. The cessation of SARS vaccine research was  a matter of money. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091

[JAMESCC]

I have a stupid question. These vaccines which I am not skeptical of. I believe it will be here sooner than most around think and it will be safe. Forget about that though. My question is when you see "the US government ups its investment in such and such vaccine to 2 billion for 100 million doses" or the "UK pays this much for 100 million does of this vaccine", what exactly does that mean? Doesn't that tell us the actual vaccine will be free or am I missing something? 

[ontheweb]

26 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

The fact is that as of now four years has been the minimum. I have no problem with Fauci giving as optimistic a spin as he can on the situation because of his position in the public eye, but if you asked him directly, unless he's ignorant or a liar, and I think he's neither, he would have to say that to date no vaccine has been developed in under four years. That's a fact and good scientists like Dr. Fauci won't dispute facts. 

Of course you know what Dr. Fauci would say in private, and it is the opposite of what he says in public. And you can tell this because he never contradicts the President by speaking truthfully????

 

He tells the truth except when it does not agree with what you think he should say???

[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, Roz said:

@chipmaster, it seems as though you take some perverse delight in the thought of millions of people dying by 2033. 

 

Because I see things realistically doesn't mean I delight in death. 

 

Actually the richest western countries get between a F and C for containment.  Look at Vietnam and Taiwan for what is possible.  Look to US for what is possible the other way, every death is a tragedy, sadly most in the US won't stand up to do what is right regardless of how unpopular or what it might cost them personally.

 

 

[chipmaster]

53 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

I have a stupid question. These vaccines which I am not skeptical of. I believe it will be here sooner than most around think and it will be safe. Forget about that though. My question is when you see "the US government ups its investment in such and such vaccine to 2 billion for 100 million doses" or the "UK pays this much for 100 million does of this vaccine", what exactly does that mean? Doesn't that tell us the actual vaccine will be free or am I missing something? 

 

Broken for profit health care in the US that is what it means, hopefully the US ain't throwing away the money

[chipmaster]

1 hour ago, TheOldBear said:

 

It was my understanding that the SARS / MERS vaccine trials were abandoned in part due to their phase three trials unable to demonstrate significant protection - by the time that trial phase ended, there was not enough circulating in the wild to see if the placebo was less effective than the trial vaccine. 

Not all the SARS/MERS vaccine efforts were wasted - a couple of the current vaccine trials involve a few tweaks to the abandoned SARS-COV-1 virus vaccine to produce a SARS-COV-2 [covid19] candidate.

 

Lets hope that is all that is needed, tweaks and viola... world is saved, history has shown that always is very likely outcome

[clo]

12 hours ago, chipmaster said:

viola

🙂

[ed01106]

16 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Look at say autonomous driving, three years ago what did we predict, and where are we now?    

 

Autonomous driving is where I thought we would be.  Not perfect, but safer than human operators but blocked for mostly political reasons and a demand that it be 100% safe rather than just safer.

[chipmaster]

5 hours ago, ed01106 said:

 

Autonomous driving is where I thought we would be.  Not perfect, but safer than human operators but blocked for mostly political reasons and a demand that it be 100% safe rather than just safer.

 

Really I love to see the Teslas run into stopped trucks and barriers, where is Level IV

[ed01106]

18 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Really I love to see the Teslas run into stopped trucks and barriers, where is Level IV

Humans do that too.  If everyone drove a fully automous car crashes would go down they wouldn't be eliminated.  

 

Likewise if everyone socially distanced and wore masks and avoided crowds covid 19 would go down.

[chipmaster]

4 hours ago, ed01106 said:

Humans do that too.  If everyone drove a fully automous car crashes would go down they wouldn't be eliminated.  

 

Likewise if everyone socially distanced and wore masks and avoided crowds covid 19 would go down.

 

You bring up a subject 

 

AI is expected to be better than the average human who'd identify that the truck or median is there.  The AI system shouldn't be asleep, fiddling with the smartphone/radio etc..    

 

This is like debating what was the real reason the MAX crashed?

 

 

But agree if everyone wore a mask, respected the virus we'd be allowed to go cruising, fly etc... sadly we value our liberty and freedom at the cost of so much more.

[ed01106]

13 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

You bring up a subject 

 

AI is expected to be better than the average human who'd identify that the truck or median is there.  The AI system shouldn't be asleep, fiddling with the smartphone/radio etc..    

 

This is like debating what was the real reason the MAX crashed?

 

 

But agree if everyone wore a mask, respected the virus we'd be allowed to go cruising, fly etc... sadly we value our liberty and freedom at the cost of so much more.

The AI is better on average.  Is there specific instances where the AI messed up and some humans wouldn’t? Absolutely, but that doesn’t mean that overall it isn’t better.  Plus after each crash, engineers can improve the software so it doesn’t happen again.  

 

As for cruising while we need mask compliance we also need to eliminate unnecessary crowds.  Cruises are the very definition of an unnecessary crowd.

[lenquixote66]

12 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

The AI is better on average.  Is there specific instances where the AI messed up and some humans wouldn’t? Absolutely, but that doesn’t mean that overall it isn’t better.  Plus after each crash, engineers can improve the software so it doesn’t happen again.  

 

As for cruising while we need mask compliance we also need to eliminate unnecessary crowds.  Cruises are the very definition of an unnecessary crowd.

If a cruise ship holds 4000 passengers the cruise line will not sail with 2000.

I originally predicted no cruising till Feb.2021.My new realistic projection is July 2023.

[JAMESCC]

If a cruise ship holds 4000 passengers the cruise line will not sail with 2000.
I originally predicted no cruising till Feb.2021.My new realistic projection is July 2023.

June 2023! They won't be in business like as in at all. I mean I'm not saying you are wrong because who knows but the lines won't be able to last that long. That's still over 2 years away.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[lenquixote66]

59 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

June 2023! They won't be in business like as in at all. I mean I'm not saying you are wrong because who knows but the lines won't be able to last that long. That's still over 2 years away.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

It is just a guess😀

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, lenquixote66 said:

If a cruise ship holds 4000 passengers the cruise line will not sail with 2000.

 

 

German cruise line TUI has just started up with short cruises and no port stops. Their ship Mein Schiff 2 carries about 2900 passengers normally but is sailing with 1200 on these start-up cruises.

 

Never say never.

[lenquixote66]

1 minute ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

German cruise line TUI has just started up with short cruises and no port stops. Their ship Mein Schiff 2 carries about 2900 passengers normally but is sailing with 1200 on these start-up cruises.

 

Never say never.

I will say never in the US