A promising vaccine on the horizon? Even Dr. Fauci is encouraged by the results so far

[cruisemom42]

1 minute ago, lenquixote66 said:

I will say never in the US 

 

A bet that I would take, were I a betting person.

[lenquixote66]

1 minute ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

A bet that I would take, were I a betting person.

 

1 minute ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

A bet that I would take, were I a betting person.

Even if you were it could not be done on CC.Therefore,let us just keep it in our minds.

[NantahalaCruiser]

On 7/27/2020 at 6:29 PM, chipmaster said:

 

What reality has been, and what we wish it will be.   Everything has gone as we expected with this pandemic and our response.

 

Typical.. ie some are shorter and some are longer.... 

 

What we are planning, LOL.  If this was a mission to moon or mars, which is of equal complexity and uncertainty would you get on that ship?

 

I note that your graph indicates that Phase III will not start until sometime after today.  However, Phase III of the U of Oxford work actually started over one month ago!

 

Yes, it is still uncertain when and if any vaccines will be effective; but I believe the level of safety will not be a major concern.  It is possible to do things safely in a well planned accelerated manner.

 

In any event, my preference is to be vaccinated as soon as an effective one becomes available, rather than waiting until 2033, when I would be 90 years old if I should live that long!

[chipmaster]

6 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

If a cruise ship holds 4000 passengers the cruise line will not sail with 2000.

I originally predicted no cruising till Feb.2021.My new realistic projection is July 2023.

 

Vaccine baby, warp speed, or maybe alien DNA will help us all?

[chipmaster]

6 hours ago, ed01106 said:

The AI is better on average.  Is there specific instances where the AI messed up and some humans wouldn’t? Absolutely, but that doesn’t mean that overall it isn’t better.  Plus after each crash, engineers can improve the software so it doesn’t happen again.  

 

As for cruising while we need mask compliance we also need to eliminate unnecessary crowds.  Cruises are the very definition of an unnecessary crowd.

 

Yup the MAX sure is going to be better, as will the Tesla, pity the people who died.

[lenquixote66]

30 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Vaccine baby, warp speed, or maybe alien DNA will help us all?

Aliens have been on earth since the beginning of time so perhaps they will share their DNA.

[clo]

6 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

June 2023! They won't be in business like as in at all. I mean I'm not saying you are wrong because who knows but the lines won't be able to last that long. That's still over 2 years away.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

Then I guess everyone will learn to live without it.

[JAMESCC]

Then I guess everyone will learn to live without it.

I don't think that is the best answer here. People will sail the ocean forever as they have done forever. It would suck for these companies that know how to this right, that people love to just go away.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[ontheweb]

14 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

I will say never in the US 

That's a very, very long time. Never say never.

[lenquixote66]

3 hours ago, ontheweb said:

That's a very, very long time. Never say never.

That reminds me of my favorite secret agent Israel Bond .That is only something he could say.

[clo]

12 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

People will sail the ocean forever as they have done forever.

Please clarify for me. Have people sailed the ocean forever as a discretionary, leisure activity? I didn't know that. At all.

[UnorigionalName]

On 7/27/2020 at 4:50 PM, JAMESCC said:

I have a stupid question. These vaccines which I am not skeptical of. I believe it will be here sooner than most around think and it will be safe. Forget about that though. My question is when you see "the US government ups its investment in such and such vaccine to 2 billion for 100 million doses" or the "UK pays this much for 100 million does of this vaccine", what exactly does that mean? Doesn't that tell us the actual vaccine will be free or am I missing something? 

 

If you look at the graph for drug development, usually you don't spend the billion of dollars to make a factory until you know your drug works.  One easy way to speed up the development cycle without impacting safety is to throw money away.  As soon as a drug looks half-way promising, you go ahead and build a factory to make millions of doses, fully aware that the drug may turn out bust and that all the money and production is wasted.

 

So what the US government is doing, is going to these companies, and offering to give them money to start building their factories NOW, while undergoing testing, in return for the first whatever hundred million doses.

 

The US government has not yet decided how those doses will be allocated or charged after they received them.  Pretty sure there's broad political support for free vaccines, but I don't believe that issue has been settled.  But the possibility exists that they will sell them, maybe sell them to a middle-man company to distribute and let those companies charge an arm and leg.

[JAMESCC]

Please clarify for me. Have people sailed the ocean forever as a discretionary, leisure activity? I didn't know that. At all.

First you ask a question and then answer it yourself. People have sailed the ocean for centuries and will continue to that I'm sure of. And people have sailed the ocean for both transportation and leisure.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[cruisemom42]

2 hours ago, clo said:

Please clarify for me. Have people sailed the ocean forever as a discretionary, leisure activity? I didn't know that. At all.

 

Yes, Odysseus. He enjoyed quite a long voyage to the lands of the Lotus Eaters, the Cyclopes, the island of Calypso -- not to mention scenic sailing around Scylla and Charybdis -- on his return home from the Trojan War. Some 3,000 years ago.  

 

Of course his journey was prolonged by certain gods who were angry with him. But on the whole he seems to have enjoyed it. Some have suggested he needed it as a sort of recovery after the horrors of the war.

 

 

[JAMESCC]

Interesting video here, encouraging but I like the sound of it.

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/07/30/coronavirus-vaccine-timeline-effectiveness-cohen-lead-bts-vpx.cnn

[Nic6318]

On 7/29/2020 at 4:42 PM, JAMESCC said:

June 2023! They won't be in business like as in at all. I mean I'm not saying you are wrong because who knows but the lines won't be able to last that long. That's still over 2 years away.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

 

Hi

 

Don't forget, while the companies seem to have positioned themselves to survive till sometime next year, if things don't work out as hoped, they would eventually declare bankruptcy, restructure and wait. As long as there is the market, there will be a company providing the service. The only reason they aren't at this time is because they are not allowed. That eventually will change.

 

The only issue for "us" as individuals will be whether cruising as we remember would be something that still attracts us. I have read many posts on this site where people have suggested that their cruising days are likely now in the past. For myself, I don't know yet, simply because I don't know what the product will be whenever it resurrects. What is being sold at this time is something that is hoped for but not something that is assured.

[Hlitner]

Some folks here on CC (and elsewhere) confuse realism with pessimism.  DW and I are travelers (generally independent) first and view cruising as an important part of our travel lifestyle.  Even in our 70s we try to be in "travel mode" 6-7 months a year.  COVID has certainly changed that in 2020 and already forced us to abandon more then 100 days of trips (from April - Dec).  But rather then hiding in our basement we are already making major adjustments and continuing our travel passion.  For now we are limited to some domestic travel (primarily by car) but that will likely change before the end of 2021.  All that being said, we are very pessimistic about mass market cruising based on basic science and common sense.  We accept that there will not be widespread COVID immunity (via potential vaccines and those who might have immunity from previous bouts) until at least late 2021 and likely not even that fast.   In fact, whether there will ever be a safe/effective vaccine is still a big question.

 

I do see a strong future for the small ship luxury lines but it is difficult to imagine anything good for the mega ship mass market lines.   Sure, the major lines will try various ideas to restart the industry, but they face the issue of how to prevent infections on cruises, what to do if somebody gets infected, how to deal with reluctant ports, how to ensure that passengers/crew do not get exposed to anything when they go off the ship, etc.  None of these issues will be solved in the next few months and likely not resolved for several years!  Meanwhile, the mass market industry will continue to bleed $Billions every month and those $Billions will eventually disappear :(.  

 

Where does this leave we cruise lovers?  Early in the pandemic there was a thread on CC with the topic of No cruising until there is a vaccine.  At the time I thought they were crazy but now I have grown to see that it is the only solution.  What if there is never a vaccine?  Then mass market cruising is finished and we will likely be reading about it in history books.  Can a mass market vessel be modified to allow for sufficient social distancing?  Only by major reductions in the number of passengers/crew which would result in a much more expensive product.   I should add that DW and I have already reacted to some future price changes.  MSC has already increased the price of their Yacht Club by about 20% which caused us to rethink a potential MSC booking and change it to an Oceania booking.  In a sense, MSC priced themselves out of our market.  Previous to COVID we had already replaced a potential Celebrity booking with a Seabourn booking because Seabourn actually gave us a lot more then Celebrity at a lower cost per passenger/day.  After COVID, if Celebrity survives we can expect the cost of their S-Class ships and Edge ships to increase (especially for higher categories) which will make the luxury lines (such as Seabourn) a much better option (for those of us who enjoy smaller luxury ships).

 

And another thought for mass market fans.  Mass market ships need a big crew and their housing situation is not good vis-a-vis COVID.  Crew must share small cabins (no social distancing) and also share bathrooms between multiple cabins.  Even if cruise lines reduce passenger capacity on those ships, they will not be able to proportionally reduce the number of crew (it takes a certain minimum number of crew to operate a ship no matter how many passengers).  Reconfiguring the crew deck to allow for better social distancing is not a good option.

 

 

Hank

[sfaaa]

3 hours ago, Hlitner said:

  What if there is never a vaccine?  Then mass market cruising is finished and we will likely be reading about it in history books. 

If there is no vaccine, the world economy and our way of life will all be screwed. The current lock down and government subsidy programs are unsustainable. Recession and massive unemployment are fast becoming a possible reality.  I doubt any of us will worry about cruising under such a scenario.

[UnorigionalName]

4 hours ago, Hlitner said:

  For now we are limited to some domestic travel (primarily by car) but that will likely change before the end of 2021. 

 

😣😣 why the US will never be able to cruise without a vaccine.  People from the beginning were unable to sacrifice lifestyle to get the virus under control.

 

Even now, those who have completely sacrificed to try to minimize danger to self and to the community have to suffer because others want to go live their life sooner than later. It's the prisoners dilemma and everyone is mashing that selfish button.

 

If only the country was more like any other country, look at the downslope of all other countries vs. US.  We kept too many things open, and opened up too fast.

 

If people were willing to sacrifice more for a shorter period, then we too could possibly see a safe return to local tourism and cruising, but to do so now basically continues the problem.

[SelectSys]

5 hours ago, Hlitner said:

...  But rather then hiding in our basement we are already making major adjustments and continuing our travel passion.  For now we are limited to some domestic travel (primarily by car) but that will likely change before the end of 2021.  All that being said, we are very pessimistic about mass market cruising based on basic science and common sense.  We accept that there will not be widespread COVID immunity (via potential vaccines and those who might have immunity from previous bouts) until at least late 2021 and likely not even that fast.   In fact, whether there will ever be a safe/effective vaccine is still a big question.

 

I do see a strong future for the small ship luxury lines but it is difficult to imagine anything good for the mega ship mass market lines.   Sure, the major lines will try various ideas to restart the industry, but they face the issue of how to prevent infections on cruises, what to do if somebody gets infected, how to deal with reluctant ports, how to ensure that passengers/crew do not get exposed to anything when they go off the ship, etc.  None of these issues will be solved in the next few months and likely not resolved for several years!  Meanwhile, the mass market industry will continue to bleed $Billions every month and those $Billions will eventually disappear :(.  

 

Where does this leave we cruise lovers?  ...  After COVID, if Celebrity survives we can expect the cost of their S-Class ships and Edge ships to increase (especially for higher categories) which will make the luxury lines (such as Seabourn) a much better option (for those of us who enjoy smaller luxury ships).

 

 

 

Interesting post which I think makes some strong points which I agree with:

 

1) One can't hide in the basement forever unless you are truly physically or mentally compromised 

2) Humans by nature adapt and move on such as your travel by car

3) Prices for cruising and all forms of travel are going way higher - at least in the foreseeable future

4) Government can't keep spending to keep people at home much longer

 

Regardless of vaccine, I do believe some level of herd immunity will be realized in areas - some quickly or slower. COVID is simply not the extinction event for humanity and everything will go back to pretty much like it was before but with hopefully even more emphasis on sanitation.

 

I think you have connections in Jalisco.  How is COVID going there?

[lenquixote66]

12 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

 

Interesting post which I think makes some strong points which I agree with:

 

1) One can't hide in the basement forever unless you are truly physically or mentally compromised 

2) Humans by nature adapt and move on such as your travel by car

3) Prices for cruising and all forms of travel are going way higher - at least in the foreseeable future

4) Government can't keep spending to keep people at home much longer

 

Regardless of vaccine, I do believe some level of herd immunity will be realized in areas - some quickly or slower. COVID is simply not the extinction event for humanity and everything will go back to pretty much like it was before but with hopefully even more emphasis on sanitation.

 

I think you have connections in Jalisco.  How is COVID going there?

At one time in my life I had a basement that I could live in .There was a bathroom with a shower ,a bar ,tv,stereo,records and books plus a mini fridge .What else could I ask for.

Now I am in a condo without a basement.

If there will never be a proven vaccine I think we will go back to the days of the cave women and me and start life all over.

[clo]

Here's a piece that should make everyone realize that actually administering a vaccine won't be easy.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-the-government-must-do-to-successfully-administer-a-covid-19-vaccine/2020/07/31/6eb59438-d291-11ea-8d32-1ebf4e9d8e0d_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_opinions_pm&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_popns

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, SelectSys said:

 

Interesting post which I think makes some strong points which I agree with:

 

1) One can't hide in the basement forever unless you are truly physically or mentally compromised 

2) Humans by nature adapt and move on such as your travel by car

3) Prices for cruising and all forms of travel are going way higher - at least in the foreseeable future

4) Government can't keep spending to keep people at home much longer

 

Regardless of vaccine, I do believe some level of herd immunity will be realized in areas - some quickly or slower. COVID is simply not the extinction event for humanity and everything will go back to pretty much like it was before but with hopefully even more emphasis on sanitation.

 

I think you have connections in Jalisco.  How is COVID going there?

Yes we do have some Jalisco (PV) connections and the situation there is really bad at the moment.  COVID is a major problem in Mexico (underreported by the government) and Puerto Vallarta has more then its share.  There has been some talk (a few days ago) about the government moving back to some kind of shut down phase but the Mexicans are really against shut downs because of its impact on the economy.  Predictions are that the virus will peak in August, but who knows?  

 

Hank

[ed01106]

18 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

Interesting post which I think makes some strong points which I agree with:

 

1) One can't hide in the basement forever

We can't.  But some very selfish people like yourself have needlessly prolonged this.  China didn't shut down forever.  Germany didn't shut down forever. South Korea didn't shut down forever.  Nor New Zealand nor Australia nor any other country that got this under control.  We didn't reopenned too soon.  We need to shut down until we get it under control.  The longer we remain in this half measure the longer it will take to eventually control this once we do take it seriously with even worse damage to the economy and even more funerals.  

 

Sadly, the process won't begin until January with a death count of around a half a million.  

[cruisemom42]

7 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

China didn't shut down forever.  Germany didn't shut down forever. South Korea didn't shut down forever.  Nor New Zealand nor Australia nor any other country that got this under control. 

 

Excellent point that many seem to forget.

 

We are too impatient by half; we are behaving like spoilt children who want their reward before they do their chore; who throw a tantrum when they are told they can't do something.