Dire financial predictions from Carnival Corp. Is RCI next?

[CSHS1979]

39 minutes ago, amurray88 said:

That is some pretty horrific playing with numbers.

 

The survival rate (people died v people infected) in USA is 96.7%.

To put that into context, if you're on Oasis of the Seas at full capacity and the virus spreads to everyone 270 people die....that's quite alot I'd think?

 

Maybe the reason the US is failing so horrifically is because people think playing with the numbers to try and make it look good works and that somehow will make the virus go away.

 

But you are playing pretty freely with the numbers as well. The positivity ratevin Florida for example is around 8%, so now your number is closer to 20. Still unnaceptable, but not as ridiculous as 270.

[A&L_Ont]

9 minutes ago, CSHS1979 said:

 

But you are playing pretty freely with the numbers as well. The positivity ratevin Florida for example is around 8%, so now your number is closer to 20. Still unnaceptable, but not as ridiculous as 270.

However, not everyone on the ship is from Florida.  Maybe look at your national rate as a fairer comparable. 

[amurray88]

15 minutes ago, CSHS1979 said:

 

But you are playing pretty freely with the numbers as well. The positivity ratevin Florida for example is around 8%, so now your number is closer to 20. Still unnaceptable, but not as ridiculous as 270.

I think your numbers are seriously flawed in so many ways.

First of all a virus would spread quicker on a cruise ship than in rural villages and towns, even in cities.

 

If you want to use Florida for your example then your survival rate is now 98.5% therefore if full capacity then ONLY 128 people die.... Oh that now looks totally acceptable doesn't it? Please, give my head peace.

 

 

[CSHS1979]

36 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

However, not everyone on the ship is from Florida.  Maybe look at your national rate as a fairer comparable. 

 

I couldn't find a US average

[CSHS1979]

26 minutes ago, amurray88 said:

I think your numbers are seriously flawed in so many ways.

First of all a virus would spread quicker on a cruise ship than in rural villages and towns, even in cities.

 

If you want to use Florida for your example then your survival rate is now 98.5% therefore if full capacity then ONLY 128 people die.... Oh that now looks totally acceptable doesn't it? Please, give my head peace.

 

 

 

I think only you can give yourself peace

[Iamcruzin]

On 8/7/2020 at 9:24 PM, zekekelso said:

Keep in mind the difference between the cruise line and the corporate owner. The corporate owners may end up bankrupt; that just means somebody else can step in to own it. Of course, if cruising doesn’t resume, or has so many restrictions that it is t worth cruising, then we are all screwed. 

From what we have seen from the few small cruise lines that have started up it doesn't look good. If I was retired and lived close to port I would consider cruising under the restrictions that MSC is proposing.  As long as I have limited vacation time I'm not willing to book a cruise for watered down communist experience where I may have to quarantine for 14 days upon return. I'm starting a new job so I won't be eligible for vacation time for another year at least. Hopefully things will be back to normal by then.

[drsel]

 

 

 

However, I'll explain why -

Allure of the Seas for school holidays interior room is typically around £125pppn (2 people for 7 nights around £1750)   I managed to get it April '21 for approx half this WITH $100obc thrown in too.

How did you manage to get this 7 night cruise on Allure for under £440 per person or less than £63 per person per night?

 

[amurray88]

4 minutes ago, drsel said:

 

 

 

 

How did you manage to get this 7 night cruise on Allure for under £440 per person or less than £63 per person per night?

 

 

That was just the price believe it or not....unreal. It's still available just now!

[Iamcruzin]

On 8/7/2020 at 10:26 PM, notladjr said:

 Will we see further cutbacks in food quality and offerings? Less crew and therefore less service? 

You better believe it. Something has to change and I don't envy them. They are between a rock and a hard place. First they have to hope that the cruising public is still willing to cruise after this incident. If they raise prices it will no longer be the good value that we are used to. If they reduce quality and service it will no longer be the experience we expect. Then we have to consider what the on board experience will be like with the new protocol.

 

People are finding new ways of entertainment and discovering that you don't have to travel far from home for a vacation experience and there is still the choice of land vacations.  My son who has been on more RC cruises than I have is leaving for St Thomas on Thursday. He is staying at a beautiful airbnb on the beach. NY doesn't require a 14 day quarantine after returning and St Thomas unlike places like Hawaii doesn't require a 14 day quarantine upon arrival. He found a way to lift and shift his flight and airbnb credit for Hawaii to another vacation. I you have cruise credits you are stuck with a cruise line that has no idea when they will start up or if they will still be in business next year. 

[bouhunter]

2 hours ago, amurray88 said:

That is some pretty horrific playing with numbers.

 

The survival rate (people died v people infected) in USA is 96.7%.

To put that into context, if you're on Oasis of the Seas at full capacity and the virus spreads to everyone 270 people die....that's quite alot I'd think?

 

Maybe the reason the US is failing so horrifically is because people think playing with the numbers to try and make it look good works and that somehow will make the virus go away.

Your numbers are just as "horrific", as in wrong.  MILLIONS have had the virus, recovered, and never took a test.  To calculate a death rate using positive tests and deaths is in no way accurate.

Edited August 9, 2020 by bouhunter

[drsel]

 

That was just the price believe it or not....unreal. It's still available just now!

640 to 650 dollars on the US website for April 2021.

627 for Jan 2021

These fares are for an inside cabin & include all port fees and taxes

[amurray88]

13 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

Your numbers are just as "horrific", as in wrong.  MILLIONS have had the virus, recovered, and never took a test.  To calculate a death rate using positive tests and deaths is in no way accurate.

And you don't think there's been huge numbers dying and not recorded as coronavirus? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53172302 this article would suggest so. However, as always, there are some who want to fight and say their country is doing well - the rest of the world would disagree.

[amurray88]

9 minutes ago, drsel said:

640 to 650 dollars on the US website for April 2021.

627 for Jan 2021

These fares are for an inside cabin & include all port fees and taxes

Unfortunately Cruise Critic don't allow you to discuss Travel Agents but my TA had a US website and a UK website. The website is currently showing at £462 with $50obc each...that number goes ever so slightly up and down over the course of a few days (some days its £430 with $25obc, other days its £475 with $75obc etc.)

[amurray88]

12 minutes ago, drsel said:

640 to 650 dollars on the US website for April 2021.

627 for Jan 2021

These fares are for an inside cabin & include all port fees and taxes

When googling for cruises I also normally google "Book the best discounted cheap luxury cruises". 

Ahh, viva, this is the life.

[A&L_Ont]

1 hour ago, CSHS1979 said:

 

I couldn't find a US average

Worldometer’s website shows the US death rate is 6%.
 

If my memory is correct the capacity of Oasis was 8,600 before her dry dock, when they added more cabins. Let’s say half on board get CV19 that is 4,300 infected and 6% of that number dies. That is 258 deaths by the US average today.  With the possibility of numbers like that I don’t think cruising will start anytime soon. 

 

The numbers could be less, the numbers could be higher.  I just took half the numbers.  They are numbers but if a ship came back with 1 dead I could only imagine what the press and CDC would do/say.  They where not too welcoming of ships with infected guests/crew in April and the months surrounding it. 
 

An infected ship won’t be allowed to off load guests, and the next sail won’t sail. Not a good situation at all.  
 

The industry gets one shot at this and seeing how it is working for other lines in other countries starting in the US is not happening anytime soon by these numbers. 

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[Iamcruzin]

23 hours ago, Rocket3D said:

.

Your post hits many good points.

1. A percentage of the customer base will stay away from fear of the virus.

2. A segment will have been financially impacted personally and can't cruise regardless of cost.

3. A big percentage will stay away because they don't want to end up on a covid quarantined prison ship.

4. A percentage won't cruise because of masks and other restrictions.

5. Also some will wait until they see that ship dining, entertainment, and activities are normal again.

 

Most CC posters are obviously still hoping to cruise again, maybe dying to cruise without dying.

Cheers!

I am linked to point 2,3,4 and 5.  I'm only participating on CC waiting to see how this all turns out.

[Milwaukee Eight]

15 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

if it dropped by 40%, there would be an exodus from cruise ships

How would they get off the ships in today’s COVID19 world?  Seems to still be an issue. 
 

Thanks

M8

[drsel]

You are right.
Also, it is going to be very difficult to quit a job and get another one during this pandemic

[drsel]

Many employees in all types of businesses are still working with huge pay cuts, so it's definitely possible that cruise line employees will also have pay cuts.

 

 

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 hours ago, amurray88 said:

And you don't think there's been huge numbers dying and not recorded as coronavirus? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53172302 this article would suggest so. However, as always, there are some who want to fight and say their country is doing well - the rest of the world would disagree.

I think there is far more deaths recorded as CV and were not the cause of death. 
 

M8

[amurray88]

1 hour ago, A&L_Ont said:

Worldometer’s website shows the US death rate is 6%.
 

If my memory is correct the capacity of Oasis was 8,600 before her dry dock, when they added more cabins. Let’s say half on board get CV19 that is 4,300 infected and 6% of that number dies. That is 258 deaths by the US average today.  With the possibility of numbers like that I don’t think cruising will start anytime soon. 

 

The numbers could be less, the numbers could be higher.  I just took half the numbers.  They are numbers but if a ship came back with 1 dead I could only imagine what the press and CDC would do/say.  They where not too welcoming of ships with infected guests/crew in April and the months surrounding it. 
 

An infected ship won’t be allowed to off load guests, and the next sail won’t sail. Not a good situation at all.  
 

The industry gets one shot at this and seeing how it is working for other lines in other countries starting in the US is not happening anytime soon by these numbers. 

 

I've used a different calculation and different stats but got about the same number... Going by US current numbers ALOT of people would return dead. 

[A&L_Ont]

15 minutes ago, amurray88 said:

I've used a different calculation and different stats but got about the same number... Going by US current numbers ALOT of people would return dead. 

The number really is unknown, as it depends on how many contract it while on-board.
 

Even with precautionary testing on ships that sailed in Germany, Norway, the French Polynesia and Alaska there were still positives.  Those ships did not have a large capacity of guests and crew either. 
 

For some reason I don’t think I will be on my cruise in March, unless something miraculous happens. 

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

How would they get off the ships in today’s COVID19 world?  Seems to still be an issue. 
 

Thanks

M8

Only really in the US.  Many countries are now allowing crew changes, as they realize that mariners (all mariners, not just cruise ship crew) are essential to their economies, since 80% of the world's economy travels by sea.

1 hour ago, drsel said:

You are right.
Also, it is going to be very difficult to quit a job and get another one during this pandemic

Mariners are considered to be essential workers, due to their impact on the world economy as noted above.  The other 95% of world shipping, other than cruise ships, are still out there, and still moving products.

1 hour ago, drsel said:

Many employees in all types of businesses are still working with huge pay cuts, so it's definitely possible that cruise line employees will also have pay cuts.

 

 

As stated, since mariners are considered to be essential, there is little pressure to lower their wages, and most are covered by collective bargaining agreements, so as I say, if the cruise lines reduce wages, then the crew have a decision to make, whether to stay on cruise ships for less money, or go to a cargo ship for more.  And, cruise line wages, for many positions is almost to the statutory minimum wage anyway.

Edited August 9, 2020 by chengkp75

[drsel]

So if the salaries cannot be reduced, then how will Cruise lines cut costs, pay off their huge debt and even manage to break even?

[Milwaukee Eight]

7 minutes ago, drsel said:

So if the salaries cannot be reduced, then how will Cruise lines cut costs, pay off their huge debt and even manage to break even?

Pass on to paying passengers.