Dire financial predictions from Carnival Corp. Is RCI next?

[mek]

37 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

 

 

Once they do start sailing, it will be interesting to see 6 months later how many ships are sailing and where.  I doubt every ship and itinerary they're selling right now actually sails after they start up.

That is kind of my point - people are booking cruises right now that have a good chance of not sailing according to the date and itinerary they think they will be getting.

[Rocket3D]

45 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

Actually the big unknown is how many will pay any fare.  A percentage of the customer base will stay away from fear of the virus, another segment will have been financially impacted personally and not want to spend for a cruise regardless of cost.  Yet another percentage will stay away at least for a while because they don't want to end up on a covid cancelled cruise or a quarantined prison ship.  And some won't cruise because of masks and other restrictions.  They have so much to overcome.  Their customer base is going to be smaller, the avid regular cruisers on these boards dying to get onboard aren't representative of the majority of their customers.

 

Once they do start sailing, it will be interesting to see 6 months later how many ships are sailing and where.  I doubt every ship and itinerary they're selling right now actually sails after they start up.

.

Your post hits many good points.

1. A percentage of the customer base will stay away from fear of the virus.

2. A segment will have been financially impacted personally and can't cruise regardless of cost.

3. A big percentage will stay away because they don't want to end up on a covid quarantined prison ship.

4. A percentage won't cruise because of masks and other restrictions.

5. Also some will wait until they see that ship dining, entertainment, and activities are normal again.

 

Most CC posters are obviously still hoping to cruise again, maybe dying to cruise without dying.

Cheers!

[not-enough-cruising]

2 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

The simple solution is to increase the cruise fare. Of course the big unknown will be how many people will pay higher fares. The longer cruise lines remain grounded, the more likely cruise lines will have to increase fares to survive and start paying off all the debt they have accumulated. I can see cruising no longer being affordable for the majority of people like it has been for a long time. 

Personally I would be OK with an increase in the fare. Without sounding arrogant, I think the demographic has become a little too “mainstream”

[TheMastodon]

19 hours ago, atanac said:

You'd have to believe a vaccine will be found, delivered worldwide and the pandemic is history for

crusing in or out of the U.S. to resume. May 2021 is a long ways away but remember there has

never been a vaccine to wipe out the flu or HIV and research has been going on for decades.

250+ vaccines in the pipeline for Covid19

[yogimax]

1 hour ago, not-enough-cruising said:

Personally I would be OK with an increase in the fare. Without sounding arrogant, I think the demographic has become a little too “mainstream”

What are you saying?

[yogimax]

2 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

250+ vaccines in the pipeline for Covid19

Doesn't mean a thing.  How many hundreds (thousands) have been in the pipeline for HIV?  All have failed so far.

 

Having said that, I think an effective and safe COVID-19 vaccine will emerge.  Thinking like some, however, that it will be "sooner than later" is totally wishful thinking, simply creating a false narrative.

[zekekelso]

4 minutes ago, yogimax said:

What are you saying?

I think they are saying the cruise lines need to raise prices to keep rifraf like me off the ships. Which I can totally understand. 

[bigrednole]

This is not news. All of them will be impacted. If they are not sailing come January, they will all seek bankruptcy protections. The first things that will go are FCCs. After that, it will be using collateral to cover until they can cruise. The government is doing to cruise lines the same thing they have done to 75% of the small businesses in this country. They are choosing who remains and who goes under.

 

One solution I could foresee is a lot of cruising out of the Bahamas. If they can find an inexpensive way to get travelers from port cities to the Bahamas and cruise from there, they can get around the CDC to operate. But in the end, the government needs to end the stranglehold on the country. With a 99.97% survival rate, we have to accept the fact that it is here, it is not going away, and you have to start living again. Those that are highly susceptible and in high risk class need to stay home unfortunately.

[time4u2go]

12 minutes ago, bigrednole said:

With a 99.97% survival rate

Where did you get that number?

[yogimax]

32 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

I think they are saying the cruise lines need to raise prices to keep rifraf like me off the ships. Which I can totally understand. 

Me too... oh well I can always cruise on the Staten Island ferry if I have to.

[yogimax]

33 minutes ago, bigrednole said:

One solution I could foresee is a lot of cruising out of the Bahamas. If they can find an inexpensive way to get travelers from port cities to the Bahamas and cruise from there, they can get around the CDC to operate. But in the end, the government needs to end the stranglehold on the country. With a 99.97% survival rate, we have to accept the fact that it is here, it is not going away, and you have to start living again. Those that are highly susceptible and in high risk class need to stay home unfortunately.

1. Getting "around the CDC to operate" is a death sentence to many.  Why would you want that?

2. What "stranglehold?"  The problem is those who refuse the sensible and scientific guidelines.

3. "99.97% survival rate" is pure nonsense.

4. "you have to start living again"  I am living.  Sure, I'd like to cruise, but, as far as I can tell, I'm alive.

Edited August 8, 2020 by yogimax

[not-enough-cruising]

30 minutes ago, bigrednole said:

 

 

One solution I could foresee is a lot of cruising out of the Bahamas. If they can find an inexpensive way to get travelers from port cities to the Bahamas and cruise from there, they can get around the CDC to operate.

But The Bahamas doesn’t want people

crossing their borders either, never mind the fact that there is no way any of the Bahamanian islands has the infrastructure to home port even a moderately sized cruise ship. If you get past these barricades, then you have the very real possibility that the CDC will force quarantine all those returning to the US post cruise. 

[molly361]

5 hours ago, mek said:

This is the primary reason I think people who are booking future cruises right now when that future is so unknown or might not even exist for a long time are crazy.   Who really knows what will happen in the next 12 months,(or possibly longer?)

What happens if ships don't sail, lines either stop operations or go out of business, and then folks have thousands tied up and want their money back?

I think anyone booking future cruises has to realize they just might be kissing their money good by.

I forgot what it is called but the TA we have our cruises booked with in Canada has some sort of vendor default insurance.  That or all Canadian TA's have it. 

Edited August 8, 2020 by molly361

[amurray88]

I completely understand folk saying those who have booked are crazy - and I am one of those who have booked!!

 

However, I'll explain why -

Allure of the Seas for school holidays interior room is typically around £125pppn (2 people for 7 nights around £1750)

 

I managed to get it April '21 for approx half this WITH $100obc thrown in too.

 

Now if this doesn't go ahead then either we get our money back or if the RCL goes bust we lose our deposit (I don't think they will).

 

If it does go ahead then there are HUGE benefits - 

Half price cruise on a ship we typically wouldn't treat ourselves to.

Potentially on a much reduced capacity so go on a boat in school holidays and still have plenty of space.

[livingonthebeach]

4 hours ago, bouhunter said:

Once they do start sailing, it will be interesting to see 6 months later how many ships are sailing and where.  I doubt every ship and itinerary they're selling right now actually sails after they start up.

 

This is spot-on.  I can't see transatlantic, transpacific, world cruises or longer than 3-5 day cruises from the get-go.  A covid outbreak in the middle of Atlantic or Pacific oceans?  Not sure cruise lines want to tackle that scenario for starters. 

[tonit964]

13 hours ago, drsel said:

I think even the number of crew and their salaries will be reduced dramatically, possibly by even 40%

Gratuities will go up and the cost of onboard spending will increase

These statements are contradictory. So, apparently the gratuities don't go to the crew after all?

[rimmit]

6 hours ago, GEORGIEGIRL said:

One question. Haven't we all been financially impacted in one way or another? Whether it be due to job loss/furloughs/pay cuts, etc.. or 401K's . So to say that they may be affected is no big deal...

While the vast majority may have been negatively financially impacted, I know many that are doing better now than ever before (401k/403b Included).  People who were lucky enough to not lose their jobs and work from home or were considered essential continued to bring income and at the same time reduced expenditures down to zero due to lack of eating out, entertainment, vacations, etc.  

 

While the vast majority have been negatively impacted there is a sizable portion who is doing better than ever.  Just look at the contractors.   They’ve never been busier in their lives with all the home improvement projects people have started.  I have been waiting for new siding and a new deck since May and it won’t be till the end of this month/beginning of Sept when they can finally install it.  Realtors are killing it right now as well as the housing market is on fire.  Physicians after their initial loss after two months of virtually nothing are now busier than ever from the shutdown.  My wife has been waiting a month to just see her pain specialist.

[Tapi]

47 minutes ago, amurray88 said:

I completely understand folk saying those who have booked are crazy - and I am one of those who have booked!!

 

However, I'll explain why -

Allure of the Seas for school holidays interior room is typically around £125pppn (2 people for 7 nights around £1750)

I am seriously considering pulling the trigger on the Oasis of the Seas for June 2021. $74pppn. 

[CSHS1979]

2 hours ago, yogimax said:

What are you saying?

 

Increase cost and improve standards. The current prices are turning Royal into Wal-Mart.

 

That would be my interpretation of what I read

[CSHS1979]

21 minutes ago, tonit964 said:

These statements are contradictory 

 

Not really. Drop the wage and force the public to subsidize even more than now

[zalusky]

Cruising age demographics show that a majority of cruisers are older than 45 with the peak being people in their 60s.

If the cruise lines were to blow off the 60+ group they would lose a lot of money.  Royal may skew lower because of families but anything longer than a week skews much older.

[drsel]

These statements are contradictory. So, apparently the gratuities don't go to the crew after all?

Hi tonit964, that's a lovely photo!

 

The salaries of the higher officers will go down, including the captain. All management level positions do not get a part of the gratuities, they get a high salary instead. 

 

The tipping staff have a base salary of just $50, so they depend on gratuities.

And yes the gratuities will go up because they are a source of revenue for the cruise line and they are put into a pool from which salaries are paid to the tipping staff including the waiters, room stewards kitchen staff, etc

The excess amount remaining in the pool is part of the cruise line's profit

 

 

 

[CSHS1979]

1 minute ago, drsel said:

The excess amount remaining in the pool is part of the cruise line's profit

 

Really not sure there is any proof to that

[drsel]

I am seriously considering pulling the trigger on the Oasis of the Seas for June 2021. $74pppn. 

That is a fantastic deal for the Oasis.
please go for it

[drsel]

 

Really not sure there is any proof to that

The tipping staff are guaranteed certain minimum wages according to Maritime laws.

On some particular sailings, if the gratuities fall short of that, then the cruise line has to make good the difference.

So the cruise line will recover this expense/loss from the sailings where the gratuities are excessive. Service charges on all onboard spends have to be factored in.