Dire financial predictions from Carnival Corp. Is RCI next?

[drsel]

Pass on to paying passengers. 

I was worried about price hikes, but so far there are still some good bargains out there on Carnival

[chengkp75]

3 minutes ago, drsel said:

So if the salaries cannot be reduced, then how will Cruise lines cut costs, pay off their huge debt and even manage to break even?

They probably won't for the next couple of years.  The best they can hope for is to lose less money while operating than not operating.  Crew costs are about 20% of total operating costs.  Cost cutting will likely be at the edges, taking loyalty perks away, small items or services discontinued or changed to for fee.

[drsel]

Maybe the cost of alcohol, excursions, spa, etc will be hiked dramatically

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Cost cutting will likely be at the edges, taking loyalty perks away, small items or services discontinued or changed to for fee.

I agree but will not be very popular around these parts. 

[drsel]

They could even follow Costa's example and charge for drinking water in the restaurants and main dining room during lunch and dinner.

Even tea and coffee after lunch and dinner may be charged extra.

[drsel]

I think most of us won't mind paying these extra charges or even losing out on some loyalty perks, because we want to support our favourite Cruise lines, who have given us so much pleasure and such fond memories over the years !

And they certainly need our help and support in this time of crisis

[livingonthebeach]

Don't know if this has been mentioned previously (haven't read the previous 4 pages)  The way I look at it -- RCCL's (RCG) cash burn rate is $250m and $275m per month.  They have 3.3 billion in the form of cash and cash equivalents so could last a year without revenue.  If they sell some assets such as ships and reduce costs they maybe longer Hopefully, we could see some sailings in the second quarter of 2021 -- I'm keeping my fingers crossed. 

🚢

[drsel]

Don't worry, we will see sailings before the second quarter of 2021

[Mapleleafforever]

4 minutes ago, drsel said:

Don't worry, we will see sailings before the second quarter of 2021

I used to think so too. 

[CSHS1979]

4 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

Worldometer’s website shows the US death rate is 6%.
 

If my memory is correct the capacity of Oasis was 8,600 before her dry dock, when they added more cabins. Let’s say half on board get CV19 that is 4,300 infected and 6% of that number dies. That is 258 deaths by the US average today.  With the possibility of numbers like that I don’t think cruising will start anytime soon. 

 

The numbers could be less, the numbers could be higher.  I just took half the numbers.  They are numbers but if a ship came back with 1 dead I could only imagine what the press and CDC would do/say.  They where not too welcoming of ships with infected guests/crew in April and the months surrounding it. 
 

An infected ship won’t be allowed to off load guests, and the next sail won’t sail. Not a good situation at all.  
 

The industry gets one shot at this and seeing how it is working for other lines in other countries starting in the US is not happening anytime soon by these numbers. 

 

 

I don't believe anywhere near half of the Diamond Princess came down with Covid

 

I calculated 19% infected with 14 deaths

 

All but one were over 70

Edited August 9, 2020 by CSHS1979

[Joebucks]

5 hours ago, amurray88 said:

And you don't think there's been huge numbers dying and not recorded as coronavirus? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53172302 this article would suggest so. However, as always, there are some who want to fight and say their country is doing well - the rest of the world would disagree.

 

Possibly, but that doesn't mean the margin of error has to work in favor of your position. There have clearly been documented cases of false COVID death reporting amongst other inconsistencies.

 

Whatever the survival rate is, even the CDC puts it somewhere around 99%+. For the "1% is still this many deaths crowd," that doesn't mean 1% of those onboard would die. Again, just as the survival rate doesn't count those who weren't infected, which is pointed out by those who it doesn't support their opinion, doesn't mean you get to count the entire passenger count because that supports your position.

 

For some simple math, there are 328,000,000 people in the US, there have been 5,000,000 "confirmed cases" (and obviously way more than were never confirmed). That means 1.5% of the population has had a confirmed case. On a cruise ship of 5,000 people, I'll even be generous and say 5% get it, that's 250 people. With a survival rate of 99%+, you could be looking at 2 people dead if COVID runs rampant. Start weeding out certain comorbidities, and that number goes even lower.

[Iamcruzin]

1 hour ago, drsel said:

I think most of us won't mind paying these extra charges or even losing out on some loyalty perks, because we want to support our favourite Cruise lines, who have given us so much pleasure and such fond memories over the years !

And they certainly need our help and support in this time of crisis

Come back to earth. It’s a business.  Rational  people won’t give a damn. I bet the most complaints come from the most loyal customers.

Edited August 9, 2020 by Iamcruzin

[TheMastodon]

20 hours ago, time4u2go said:

Lol no.  First of all, survival rate is calculated by using the number of people that had the virus and survived (hence, the name).  It is not calculated using the total population.  The people that never had the virus didn't "survive". They just never had it.

 

Also, you might want to learn how to calculate percentages.  162K/328,000K is indeed 0.005, but you then multiply that number by 100 to get percentage.  For example, 1/100 is 0.01, which is 1%, not 0.01%.

 

They will never have an accurate survival rate since vast majority are asymptomatic and are never tested.  

[JAMESCC]

I used to think so too. 

I thought by June cruising would start and then this thing started to get worse and worse which surprised me actually. I thought the summer would be quiet and late fall/winter would be trouble. Turns out it was all trouble straight through.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[JAMESCC]

 
They will never have an accurate survival rate since vast majority are asymptomatic and are never tested.  

That's why we really need a very accurate antibody test and mass test everyone. Something simple, cheap and quick. Who knows who has had this or how many.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[livingonthebeach]

Tomorrow at 10:00 am is the Q2 earnings call.  Hopefully, we will have a clearer picture of RCCL's (RCG's) financial position.

 

"Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE: RCL) has scheduled a conference call for 10:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, Monday, August 10, 2020, to provide a business update and discuss second quarter 2020 financial results.  The call will be available on-line at the company's investor relations website, www.rclinvestor.com.  To listen to the call by phone, please dial (877) 663-9606 in the US and Canada.  International phone calls should be made to (706) 758-4628. There is no passcode or meeting number. A replay of the webcast will be available at the same site for a month following the call."

[time4u2go]

8 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

That's why we really need a very accurate antibody test and mass test everyone. Something simple, cheap and quick. Who knows who has had this or how many.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

The problem with that is, the antibodies may wear off.

[yogimax]

3 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I think there is far more deaths recorded as CV and were not the cause of death. 
 

M8

And far more who died at home who were simply listed as "natural causes" when they were really from COVID-19.

[A&L_Ont]

1 hour ago, CSHS1979 said:

 

I don't believe anywhere near half of the Diamond Princess came down with Covid

 

I calculated 19% infected with 14 deaths

 

All but one were over 70

From the CDC website below. 

Among 3,711 Diamond Princess passengers and crew, 712 (19.2%) had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of these, 331 (46.5%) were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Among 381 symptomatic patients, 37 (9.7%) required intensive care, and nine (1.3%) died (8). Infections also occurred among three Japanese responders, including one nurse, one quarantine officer, and one administrative officer (9). As of March 13, among 428 U.S. passengers and crew, 107 (25.0%) had positive test results for COVID-19; 11 U.S. passengers remain hospitalized in Japan (median age = 75 years), including seven in serious condition (median age = 76 years).

[amurray88]

46 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

Possibly, but that doesn't mean the margin of error has to work in favor of your position. There have clearly been documented cases of false COVID death reporting amongst other inconsistencies.

 

Whatever the survival rate is, even the CDC puts it somewhere around 99%+. For the "1% is still this many deaths crowd," that doesn't mean 1% of those onboard would die. Again, just as the survival rate doesn't count those who weren't infected, which is pointed out by those who it doesn't support their opinion, doesn't mean you get to count the entire passenger count because that supports your position.

 

For some simple math, there are 328,000,000 people in the US, there have been 5,000,000 "confirmed cases" (and obviously way more than were never confirmed). That means 1.5% of the population has had a confirmed case. On a cruise ship of 5,000 people, I'll even be generous and say 5% get it, that's 250 people. With a survival rate of 99%+, you could be looking at 2 people dead if COVID runs rampant. Start weeding out certain comorbidities, and that number goes even lower.

 

What you're saying is ideal if you're arguing against someone in an opposite corner. Unfortunately I'm not skewing figures to suit my argument as I don't have an argument - although I sympathise with some americans it makes no odds to me whether the survival rate in the US is 99% or 1%.... I'm simply telling you that there are a chunk of Americans that are saying "What virus? Get on with life, we're doing a great job"....whilst the rest of the world is looking on thinking what on earth are you all doing?

 

Thankfully there are some Americans who have some common sense...just a shame there's a few of you who don't and would rather should that there's not a problem whilst unbelievable numbers of people die and get infected.

[zekekelso]

You guys can argue the numbers all you want. Maybe the real number is a bit higher than the official number. Maybe a bit lower. Doesn’t matter what the exact number is. 
 

what matters is the number is “too damn high for cruising.” And until that changes, none of us are going anywhere. 

[A&L_Ont]

2 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

 

what matters is the number is “too damn high for cruising.” And until that changes, none of us are going anywhere. 

This exactly. 👆

[Milwaukee Eight]

22 minutes ago, yogimax said:

And far more who died at home who were simply listed as "natural causes" when they were really from COVID-19.

And you know this how?

[yogimax]

8 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

You guys can argue the numbers all you want. Maybe the real number is a bit higher than the official number. Maybe a bit lower. Doesn’t matter what the exact number is. 
 

what matters is the number is “too damn high for cruising.” And until that changes, none of us are going anywhere. 

Well said.  Even if it is as low as 1%, who will volunteer to have their loved ones or themselves be the 1%

[yogimax]

2 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

And you know this how?

Same way you know your stuff.  Actually, better!  Here's a quote from you favorite Dr. Birx,

 

"At an April 7 news conference, Deborah Birx, MD, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said, "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem -- some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."

 

This is in addition to those who died at home from COVID-19 but were listed as "natural."  In the early days in NYC, there were hundreds in this category.