Dire financial predictions from Carnival Corp. Is RCI next?

[bouhunter]

1 hour ago, taglovestocruise said:

Sometime next week look for ChiNA to be selling Russian vaccine in pill form available with next day free shipping from Amazon. 

LOL 🙂

 

[Iamcruzin]

5 hours ago, 2chiefs said:

This may cause a lot of people to look elsewhere for vacations (IMHO).

 

 I agree. Time and time again it is mentioned here how cruising is a great value.  Once it's not perceived as a value people will look at other options for vacations.

[Computer Nerd]

On 8/8/2020 at 9:09 AM, GEORGIEGIRL said:

One question. Haven't we all been financially impacted in one way or another? Whether it be due to job loss/furloughs/pay cuts, etc.. or 401K's .

Ummmm........nope?

Edited August 12, 2020 by Computer Nerd

[Computer Nerd]

On 8/8/2020 at 6:38 PM, time4u2go said:

Lol no.  First of all, survival rate is calculated by using the number of people that had the virus and survived (hence, the name).  It is not calculated using the total population.  The people that never had the virus didn't "survive". They just never had it.

 

Also, you might want to learn how to calculate percentages.  162K/328,000K is indeed 0.005, but you then multiply that number by 100 to get percentage.  For example, 1/100 is 0.01, which is 1%, not 0.01%.

And just how do you know how many people have had it? You don't and neither does anyone else since they have come no where near close to testing every single person in the US (and that will probably never happen).

[Computer Nerd]

On 8/9/2020 at 5:41 PM, grapau27 said:

In the UK everyone is treated for free by the NHS even foreign nationals.

It ain't free. Have you seen your tax rates???

[time4u2go]

10 minutes ago, Computer Nerd said:

And just how do you know how many people have had it? You don't and neither does anyone else since they have come no where near close to testing every single person in the US (and that will probably never happen).

I don't know how many people have had it. I never claimed that I did. 

[Computer Nerd]

On 8/10/2020 at 12:46 PM, Canadianmama3 said:

 

You know what’s funny? People who don’t live in Canada, and have never accessed health care in Canada, who want to tell Canadians what our health care system is like. You are so right. You know so much more about this then I do


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I don't need to live it to know it's crappy. I have Canuck friends in Kingston and Quebec and have heard enough horror stories from them.

Similarly, I don't actually have to eat crap to know it's going to taste like crap. Capishe?

[Computer Nerd]

11 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

I don't know how many people have had it. I never claimed that I did. 

And since we have no accurate numbers no accurate conclusions can be drawn.

[CSHS1979]

12 minutes ago, Computer Nerd said:

It ain't free. Have you seen your tax rates???

 

Not lately, but I always enjoyed this from the 60's

 

One, two, three, four, one, two

Let me tell you how it will be
There's one for you, nineteen for me
'Cause I'm the taxman, yeah, I'm the taxman

Should five per cent appear too small
Be thankful I don't take it all
'Cause I'm the taxman, yeah, I'm the taxman

If you drive a car, I'll tax the street
If you try to sit, I'll tax your seat
If you get too cold, I'll tax the heat
If you take a walk, I'll tax your feet

'Cause I'm the taxman, yeah, I'm the taxman

Don't ask me what I want it for
(Ah ah, Mr. Wilson)
If you don't want to pay some more
(Ah…

[Goodtime Cruizin]

On 8/8/2020 at 7:47 AM, PhillyFan33579 said:

The simple solution is to increase the cruise fare. Of course the big unknown will be how many people will pay higher fares. The longer cruise lines remain grounded, the more likely cruise lines will have to increase fares to survive and start paying off all the debt they have accumulated. I can see cruising no longer being affordable for the majority of people like it has been for a long time. 

 

I see it the other way around. We're diehards. We're on this board because we enjoy cruising as a passion. But the industry as a whole has lost a huge amount of their paying cruisers worldwide. Many former cruisers won't be even thinking about getting on a ship out of fear. Many others will not have the funds to cruise. I don't think increasing prices will be the answer. I see cost cutting but via re-negoiating existing contracts for supplies, food, even the port fees will be in play. If you think about every dollar spent to every supplier of goods and services, many will offer discounts to sell their respective products or services again.  We may end up seeing discounts just to fill ships and get the industry rolling again. I also see some Cruise Lines suffering and going under. Alot of merging may take place. 

[yogimax]

45 minutes ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

 

 I also see some Cruise Lines suffering and going under. Alot of merging may take place. 

Yes, Royal Carnegian Cruise Lines!

[2chiefs]

14 hours ago, not-enough-cruising said:

Wether you trust them or not, this vaccine will not be distributed outside of Russian federation territories and therefore is a moot point to the vast majority of CC users. 

That's not true!! I read it here on the thread by taglovestocruise that it will be distributed in pill form and sold by Amazon!

(tongue planted firmly in cheek)

LOL

 

[TheMastodon]

On 8/7/2020 at 3:33 PM, joelheather said:

According to a financial statement just released from Carnival Group.  If ops do not resume soon, It will directly impact its ability to start to repay its loans as of May 2021.  

 

This is very bad folks.  Royal has more outstanding debt then Carnival currently does. It beginning to look very grim folks.  

 

My vote still stays with NCl financial collapse first, by March 2021.

 

They are all in trouble as far as I'm concerned.  Yes cruises are starting over in Europe - fun thought but it will backfire.  New Zealand quarantines everyone arriving to mainland for 14 days and had great success w/ no new cases/community spread for 100 ish days.  But VIRUS going to VIRUS and showed up somehow in the past few days.  These ships cannot keep it off.

 

I still contend the CDC won't allow cruising from USA until the vaccine arrives.  Lines will have to show proof crew is vaccinated and of course passengers hoping on board.  

 

Props to Royal/Norwegian for creating the healthy sail panel to try to get going again responsibly.  I follow one of the heads of the panel ( Dr. Scott Gottlieb) on social media because he seems like a pretty level headed, smart guy with dealing with Covid19.  When I hear him talk about Covid19 I cannot fathom he would endorse cruising before the vax arrives.  But who knows.

 

Think it's safe to say the cruise lines are rooting for vaccines / antibody treatments.  

[Biker19]

21 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

New Zealand quarantines everyone arriving to mainland for 14 days and had great success w/ no new cases/community spread for 100 ish days. 

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/new-zealand-back-lockdown-new-covid-19-cases-detected

[TheMastodon]

5 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/new-zealand-back-lockdown-new-covid-19-cases-detected

 

Yes I saw that.  My point was that they went to extreme lengths to keep the virus off the island and it magically showed up again.  Can't keep it off cruise ships

[weedpindle]

15 hours ago, Computer Nerd said:

I don't need to live it to know it's crappy. I have Canuck friends in Kingston and Quebec and have heard enough horror stories from them.

Similarly, I don't actually have to eat crap to know it's going to taste like crap. Capishe?

I used to live in Rutland, VT. Every Monday there was a bus or two coming from Canada full of people heading to the hospital to get healthcare that they could not get in a timely manner in Canada. Every Monday, and they were paying top dollar since no insurance.

[Computer Nerd]

9 hours ago, TheMastodon said:

 

Yes I saw that.  My point was that they went to extreme lengths to keep the virus off the island and it magically showed up again.  Can't keep it off cruise ships

Viruses don't go away. Look how long the flu has been around. Better learn to live with it.

[Iamcruzin]

22 minutes ago, Computer Nerd said:

Viruses don't go away. Look how long the flu has been around. Better learn to live with it.

This I can agree with. The only issue is we are still learning how to live with it and it doesn't seem to be conducive to the cruise industry.

[JAMESCC]

Viruses don't go away. Look how long the flu has been around. Better learn to live with it.

The problem is the flu does not kill 160 thousand people in a matter of 5 months. The flu also does not spread efficiently as Covid. Covid also has trucked right through the humid, hot summer which the regular flu does not.

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[John&LaLa]

1 hour ago, JAMESCC said:

The problem is the flu does not kill 160 thousand people in a matter of 5 months. The flu also does not spread efficiently as Covid. Covid also has trucked right through the humid, hot summer which the regular flu does not.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

 

She's doing a reverse snowbird. Maybe she'll go back to the tri state area in the fall.

[yogimax]

3 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

She's doing a reverse snowbird. Maybe she'll go back to the tri state area in the fall.

Huh?

[John&LaLa]

6 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Huh?

 

Snowbirds leave the north in the winter to head south. They then go back north in the spring.

 

Covid did the opposite. Spent the winter in the north. Then headed south in the spring.

 

It's really not that complicated of an analogy. But truth be told, it was in jest.

[CruisingHogFan]

On 8/8/2020 at 7:33 AM, mek said:

This is the primary reason I think people who are booking future cruises right now when that future is so unknown or might not even exist for a long time are crazy.   Who really knows what will happen in the next 12 months,(or possibly longer?)

What happens if ships don't sail, lines either stop operations or go out of business, and then folks have thousands tied up and want their money back?

I think anyone booking future cruises has to realize they just might be kissing their money good by.

Royal stated there is about $900 million in current bookings. Lots of people are still booking including me and have no concerns. Worst case is bankruptcy restructure if things stay shut down well into 2021 but that won’t change existing bookings.

[chipmaster]

2 minutes ago, CruisingHogFan said:

Royal stated there is about $900 million in current bookings. Lots of people are still booking including me and have no concerns. Worst case is bankruptcy restructure if things stay shut down well into 2021 but that won’t change existing bookings.

 

Bookings that won't materialize as revenue till they sail, and don't forget all the FCC that also is hidden here.

 

None of these help with the monthly obligations to serve debt and pay the executives and managers still collecting.  Most of the crew are probably let go, not sure if the captains and officers so valuable they get salary or paid by the cruise. 

 

Will be funny / sad all those booking and let's just say one of the whales go belly up, I suspect anyone that paid and is holding canceled cruise as FCC and not a refund, good luck getting your money back.  

[CruisingHogFan]

3 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Bookings that won't materialize as revenue till they sail, and don't forget all the FCC that also is hidden here.

 

None of these help with the monthly obligations to serve debt and pay the executives and managers still collecting.  Most of the crew are probably let go, not sure if the captains and officers so valuable they get salary or paid by the cruise. 

 

Will be funny / sad all those booking and let's just say one of the whales go belly up, I suspect anyone that paid and is holding canceled cruise as FCC and not a refund, good luck getting your money back.  

Royal isn’t going to go “belly up”. Too valuable of a company just like Carnival and NCL. Maybe a merger or bankruptcy restructure at worst case and like I said above that won’t change existing bookings or FCC.
 

Since you are so concerned maybe future cruising isn’t for you and you should focus on something besides a cruise forum....