Dire financial predictions from Carnival Corp. Is RCI next?

[chipmaster]

18 minutes ago, drsel said:

And small luxury lines and expedition Cruises are really too expensive.

Some are even over 3000 dollars per person per night.

Like Celebrity flora on 23rd may 2021

 

 

 

You know the current trend of wealth distribution, right, the rich are getting richer and the majority mass market probably are catering to the working stiffs crowded portage, LOL.

 

As others said the rich live in a different world and don't play nor worry about the same rules as those hit and impacted by the Pandemic and unemployment, etc. etc.

[firefly333]

I just heard on stock channel there is a 20% short position on carnival. They didnt mention other lines. I have a friend who shorted ccl. I hope he losses. 

[chipmaster]

18 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

Who wants to buy an industry that is literally dead in the water?  You would just be taking on debt without any source of income. These aren't failed mismanaged companies. This is an industry that was forced to stop operating with no sign of reopening any time soon. 

 

There have been more stupid $ invested before with grand pitches of greatness for snake oil salesmen in the past, LOL

[chipmaster]

1 minute ago, firefly333 said:

I just heard on stock channel there is a 20% short position on carnival. They didnt mention other lines. I have a friend who shorted ccl. I hope he losses. 

 

For the current price that says a lot, nuf said.

 

That is also why when there is a short pop, it always pops a little more as the weak shorters lose their stomach for the payday later. 

[drsel]

I just heard on stock channel there is a 20% short position on carnival. They didnt mention other lines. I have a friend who shorted ccl. I hope he losses. 

You should advise your friend and not hope that he loses

[chipmaster]

Why would anyone leave?  

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/people-opinions/carnival-cruise-line-evpcfo-jim-heaney-leaving

 

[yogimax]

38 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I just heard on stock channel there is a 20% short position on carnival. They didnt mention other lines. I have a friend who shorted ccl. I hope he losses. 

CCL short position is 20.72%

 

RCL short position is 12.62%

 

In actuality, this may be better for CCL. At some point, the shorts will have to cover their positions by buying.  

[firefly333]

48 minutes ago, drsel said:

53 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I just heard on stock channel there is a 20% short position on carnival. They didnt mention other lines. I have a friend who shorted ccl. I hope he losses. 

You should advise your friend and not hope that he loses

Advise him of what? He delights in sending me every bit of bad cruise news he sees.

 

I heard rcl was up today on news that they stuck a deal I think with american Express where some of the restrictions were lifted.  ... lol whatever restrictions were in place they didnt say. 

 

I'm just holding. Not advising anyone about stocks. My magic ball isn't giving out much info, says "maybe". 

[zekekelso]

I believe the industry has some really hard times ahead and the stock prices will come crashing down. 
 

Based on my track record, you should all go buy cruise stocks, as they are certain to flourish. 

[Baron Barracuda]

2 hours ago, yogimax said:

CCL short position is 20.72%

 

RCL short position is 12.62%

 

In actuality, this may be better for CCL. At some point, the shorts will have to cover their positions by buying.  

Wouldn't pay too much attention to this.  Short positions are often used by pros to hedge option and convertible bond positions.   For instance RCL did a convertible note offering in June.  Notes carry 4.25% coupon and are convertible at $72 / share.  At time of offering RCL was trading at $70.  A smart operator could have bought a $1,000 bond while simultaneously selling 14 RCL shares short.   The investor has virtually no money at risk and will pocket the $42.50 annual interest on the bond.  (Note:  if the stock dividend was ever reinstated investor would be obligated to pay it on the 14 shares sold short).

 

Investment = $20  (-$1,000 bond purchase, +$980 stock sale 14sh @ $70 )

Interest Income =  $42.50  ($1,000 @ 4.25%)

Annual yield = 212%

[Iamcruzin]

3 hours ago, chipmaster said:

Why would anyone leave?  

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/people-opinions/carnival-cruise-line-evpcfo-jim-heaney-leaving

 

Unlike some here on CC, He sees the writing on the wall.

Edited August 14, 2020 by Iamcruzin

[taglovestocruise]

8 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

Unlike some her on CC, He sees the writing on the wall.

Most brokerage houses also fail to see the writing on the wall. Al three major cruise lines have more buy or hold recommendations then sell.  All three popped today, all have a 20% upside for year ahead.  I have a trailing sell on all three just incase. Correction should be coming and will make for a great buying opportunity for short term gain. I have been stopped out four times on Royal since April. I will guess I will be stoped out again on Tuesday or Wednesday and back in on Friday.  I do however kick myself in the butt for buying them. Mid April we received our Stimulus checks, great lets buy some quick money making stocks.  $2000 went into the three cruise line stocks, left me a little over $400 to put somewhere else. 1 share of Tesla mid April for $458... today it closed over $1600.. Cruise lines are great but electric cars are awesome.

[yogimax]

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Wouldn't pay too much attention to this.  Short positions are often used by pros to hedge option and convertible bond positions.   For instance RCL did a convertible note offering in June.  Notes carry 4.25% coupon and are convertible at $72 / share.  At time of offering RCL was trading at $70.  A smart operator could have bought a $1,000 bond while simultaneously selling 14 RCL shares short.   The investor has virtually no money at risk and will pocket the $42.50 annual interest on the bond.  (Note:  if the stock dividend was ever reinstated investor would be obligated to pay it on the 14 shares sold short).

 

Investment = $20  (-$1,000 bond purchase, +$980 stock sale 14sh @ $70 )

Interest Income =  $42.50  ($1,000 @ 4.25%)

Annual yield = 212%

Fascinating!

 

Of course, RCL was trading at 57.69 when the offering was priced.  So, if you executed the trade at that time, you would have been liable for the loss on the short sale.

[firefly333]

45 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

Cruise lines are great but electric cars are awesome.

I'll never understand Tesla but many shorts got burnt. It's not like TSLA made money. About broke even which was better than expected so it soared lol.

 

5 to 1 split announced, up $200 more a share.

 

CEO crazy but entertaining.

[John&LaLa]

3 hours ago, firefly333 said:

 

CEO crazy but entertaining.

 

Visionary

[Oulton Jim]

11 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

You know the current trend of wealth distribution, right, the rich are getting richer and the majority mass market probably are catering to the working stiffs crowded portage, LOL.

 

As others said the rich live in a different world and don't play nor worry about the same rules as those hit and impacted by the Pandemic and unemployment, etc. etc.

 Why would they need to worry. As seen in this thread -just play around with company stocks & shares. It won't matter if they all go down. I have made sufficient free bucks to keep my 30 metre mini-cruiser crewed up and ready to roll.

[firefly333]

8 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Visionary

Crazy too. Gets on tv for a interview smoking weed and drinking during a interview and supposedly has to pass a test to keep his security with the government for SpaceX. Just was thinking maybe dont smoke weed so publically if you have security clearance. 

 

But yes he also is a visionary.

[A&L_Ont]

3 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

But yes he also is a visionary.

Is that because of what he smokes?🤷‍♂️
 

Just wondering aloud. 

[Baron Barracuda]

17 hours ago, yogimax said:

Fascinating!

 

Of course, RCL was trading at 57.69 when the offering was priced.  So, if you executed the trade at that time, you would have been liable for the loss on the short sale.

Stock was around $57 when offering was announced on June 4th but news boosted price.  By the time issue actually priced on June 5th stock was trading near $70 so actually could have shorted at $70.   All theoretical though as bonds were privately placed thus unavailable to general public.  Notice how volume spiked that week.

 

 

                          Open   High    Low   Adj Cl   Close  Volume

Jun 08, 2020	75.06	75.55	70.10	75.12	75.12	32,661,300
Jun 05, 2020	64.86	74.59	64.60	69.44	69.44	61,286,500
Jun 04, 2020	57.45	60.32	55.58	57.69	57.69	33,102,100
Jun 03, 2020	54.70	58.80	54.60	58.11	58.11	18,385,800
Jun 02, 2020	57.26	58.44	55.39	56.00	56.00	18,216,000
Jun 01, 2020	52.00	56.07	51.56	55.64	55.64	19,886,400

[drsel]

I'll never understand Tesla but many shorts got burnt. It's not like TSLA made money. About broke even which was better than expected so it soared lol.
 
5 to 1 split announced, up $200 more a share.
 
CEO crazy but entertaining.

A stock split does not add any benefit or value.
it's like cutting a cake into many small pieces.

It's just a gimmick to boost volumes and make the price appear cheaper

[yogimax]

7 minutes ago, drsel said:

A stock split does not add any benefit or value.
it's like cutting a cake into many small pieces.

It's just a gimmick to boost volumes and make the price appear cheaper

Theoretically, you are correct.

 

It often has a psychological impact, however.  Take a look at what AAPL has done since the split was announced.

[firefly333]

39 minutes ago, drsel said:

A stock split does not add any benefit or value.
it's like cutting a cake into many small pieces.

It's just a gimmick to boost volumes and make the price appear cheaper

I'm well aware of that lol I watch stocks and invest, merely stating facts. They did say with the lower price options might be easier for people. But I know it adds no value, just divides the price by 5. Was saying for a car stock very high, but too many shorts have been burned for me to touch it. 

[drsel]

You can be short only for the short term, but long in the long term

[MakingUpForLostTime]

On 8/7/2020 at 10:26 PM, notladjr said:

All to allow them to remain solvent for up to one year. That one year will be up in April 2021. For that reason I think all three will surivive.

Sorry RCI is not solvent. Check their financial statements. They are insolvent.

[notmyrealnameoremail]

49 minutes ago, MakingUpForLostTime said:

Sorry RCI is not solvent. Check their financial statements. They are insolvent.

This is the first definition of solvent when I googled it:

 

sol·vent

/ˈsälvənt/

Learn to pronounce

 

adjective

 

1. 1.

   having assets in excess of liabilities; able to pay one's debts.

    

    

   Royal Caribbean has assets in excess of liabilities (the stockholders have $8.9B in equity) and can pay its debts for at least a year without income.  They are  solvent.