HAL Restart

[Charlie1422]

Now that MSC has announced their restart dates for Europe, I would like to hear your realistic opinions for restart of HAL and other US based cruise lines. I have no

confidence in the dates they are putting out.

[rkacruiser]

MSC has very recently announced the cancellation of all cruises in the Mediterranean and the United States until at least October 31, 2020.  

[Tapi]

My unscientific prediction keeps changing. Back in March when all cruises were stopped, I thought that 6-7 months (Sept-Oct) would be a realistic time span before cruises could resume. I wasn't surprised with each extension. Now, as we get closer to October, I feel like an additional round of cancellations for another 2 months (December) may be required. I do remain cautiously optimistic (although not confident) that we will see ships sailing then. 

[Aquahound]

12 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

MSC has very recently announced the cancellation of all cruises in the Mediterranean and the United States until at least October 31, 2020.  

 

They're restarting Med cruises this month on 2 ships.  

[PROCRUISE]

With Dr. Fauci's announcement today regarding the effectiveness of a coronavirus vaccine, I'm even losing hope for our June 2021 Alaskan cruise. Guess only time will tell.

[rkacruiser]

7 minutes ago, Aquahound said:

 

They're restarting Med cruises this month on 2 ships.  

 

There's conflicting information floating around.  On the MSC Message Board this afternoon, I have seen the cancellation notice of cruises in the Med and the U.S. until October 31, 2020.  Checking the Board again and reading the link to the August 8th article posted by Cruise Industry News, it appears that the two Med cruises are back on the schedule.  

 

I don't know what to believe.  

[lazey1]

I am thinking Jan 21 at the very earliest for the HAL restart.

.

[Aquahound]

31 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

There's conflicting information floating around.  On the MSC Message Board this afternoon, I have seen the cancellation notice of cruises in the Med and the U.S. until October 31, 2020.  Checking the Board again and reading the link to the August 8th article posted by Cruise Industry News, it appears that the two Med cruises are back on the schedule.  

 

I don't know what to believe.  

 

True.  The news has been conflicting.  The restart this month was something I saw this morning in Cruise Critic's newsfeed.

 

 

[Shmoo here]

34 minutes ago, PROCRUISE said:

With Dr. Fauci's announcement today regarding the effectiveness of a coronavirus vaccine, I'm even losing hope for our June 2021 Alaskan cruise. Guess only time will tell.

What announcement?

[AtlantaCruiser72]

I will be surprised if any of the US based cruise lines restart operations by end of Q1 2021, and anticipate many targeted cancellations of voyages on specific ships to roll through end of 2022.  When they restart it will only be 2-3 ships every few months as they work to reactivate the entire fleet.  I also think once cruising resumes we will see a LOT of itinerary and deployment changes stretching into late 2022 or early 2023

[Cruise NH]

34 minutes ago, AtlantaCruiser72 said:

I will be surprised if any of the US based cruise lines restart operations by end of Q1 2021, and anticipate many targeted cancellations of voyages on specific ships to roll through end of 2022.  When they restart it will only be 2-3 ships every few months as they work to reactivate the entire fleet.  I also think once cruising resumes we will see a LOT of itinerary and deployment changes stretching into late 2022 or early 2023

 

Yes, also I don't understand why the cruise lines are pussy footing around about these dates, cancelling month by month.  I can't imagine there will be any real cruising until there is an effective vaccine widely available.  Even if 'seniors' are a priority for the vaccine the young healthy crew members will not be. 

 

I'm not suggesting we start a pool going or anything but my guess would be Q2 2021.

[AtlantaCruiser72]

23 minutes ago, Cruise NH said:

 

Yes, also I don't understand why the cruise lines are pussy footing around about these dates, cancelling month by month.

 

Simply because they don't have any realistic idea when they can resume.  They are cancelling only as far out as they know with some certainty that they CANNOT operate, and are watching and waiting with the rest of us to see what is going to happen.  Look at the debacles happening with many school systems right now and having to shut down and quarantine staff and students mere days after openings.  This whole pandemic is a rolling medical and economic disaster and the cruise lines are in reactive survival mode at best.

[iancal]

I cannot imagine cruising until Q3 2021 at the earliest.

 

I would not commit dime one for any travel product, deposit or other otherwise, refundable or not, at this time.

 

 

My guess is that the cruise lines are very anxious to secure you spending commitments rather to see that budget go somewhere else.  They are keeping cruises that they know will not happen on the sales sheet to gain that commitment.    

 

When cruising does resume we do not know what the on board environment will be, we do not know if the cruise stops as advertised today will actually occur, etc.   Before booking we want some assurances.   The act of booking/rebooking gives us no comfort whatsoever.

 

 

[Lido deck main]

I am thinking earliest is Q4 2021.  We have to get a reliable vaccine, two doses, then wait for antibodies to kick in.  Also right now we can’t get travel insurance to cover COVID, we will not travel until we can get travel insurance.  The airlines are experiencing problems with COVID, and that is with 500 people on a flight for say five hours.  A cruise line with say 2000 over 7 days, no way could that happen without people getting COVID.  We need a vaccine before cruising can restart.  

 

[RocketMan275]

1 hour ago, Shmoo here said:

What announcement?

google 'fauci vaccine effectiveness' and you'll find multiple articles covering his statement.  In essence, he said not to expect a vaccine that will give complete and long lasting coverage.  IIRC, he said 60% is more reasonable and that it may require renewals.  But, he did say he was optimistic we would get a vaccine with at least 50% effectiveness.  (I believe a vaccine that is 50% effective would only protect half the people who get it.)  He did say it was very unreasonable to expect the CV vaccine would provide as much protection as the measles vaccine (98%).  He also said that we might have to continue the "public health approach" (whatever that means, hopefully he's not talking about masks forever.)

Edited August 8, 2020 by RocketMan275

[john2003]

24 minutes ago, Lido deck main said:

I am thinking earliest is Q4 2021.  We have to get a reliable vaccine, two doses, then wait for antibodies to kick in.  Also right now we can’t get travel insurance to cover COVID, we will not travel until we can get travel insurance.  The airlines are experiencing problems with COVID, and that is with 500 people on a flight for say five hours.  A cruise line with say 2000 over 7 days, no way could that happen without people getting COVID.  We need a vaccine before cruising can restart.  

 

I am surprised at the continual list of flights into Vancouver that have had COVID onboard. Shows how impossible it is at the moment to prevent the Virus joining the trip. 

[PSR]

7 minutes ago, john2003 said:

I am surprised at the continual list of flights into Vancouver that have had COVID onboard. Shows how impossible it is at the moment to prevent the Virus joining the trip. 

 

Where are these flights coming from? The rest of Canada or elsewhere?

[bennybear]

46 minutes ago, Lido deck main said:

I am thinking earliest is Q4 2021.  We have to get a reliable vaccine, two doses, then wait for antibodies to kick in.  Also right now we can’t get travel insurance to cover COVID, we will not travel until we can get travel insurance.  The airlines are experiencing problems with COVID, and that is with 500 people on a flight for say five hours.  A cruise line with say 2000 over 7 days, no way could that happen without people getting COVID.  We need a vaccine before cruising can restart.  

 

 

I found this very interesting what one travel company is doing.

[Lido deck main]

Flights are from other parts of Canada.  Here in B.C. we were doing so well, better than other parts of Canada and the States, now our numbers are creeping up some days 53 new cases, when we were down to 10 or less, a day.  Doesn’t look good.  They are planning to reopen schools in September, I just don’t understand how that will happen without another big spike.  I work in an industry that deals with the public.  People are getting too complacent. 

[rkacruiser]

36 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

He also said that we might have to continue the "public health approach" (whatever that means, hopefully he's not talking about masks forever.)

 

I do agree with that statement!  

 

Traveling any distance by any means of transportation from my home poses questions that I am unsure how to confront.

 

Driving to a favorite beach on the East Coast:  I am going to need to make a pit stop at least once en route.  What's going to be reliably open?  McDonald's lobbies are closed.  Some states' Rest Areas restrooms are closed.  I stop at a hotel that has offered a small buffet breakfast in the past.  What can I expect--if anything?  Where in route can I be sure that I can get something to eat?  Particularly, if I need an over night stay somewhere?  

 

Our political leaders of both parties want the economy to resume functioning, but the hospitality and travel industry is in Depression mode.

 

I need some certainty as to what to expect as I try to make plans.  I don't think I am alone with this thinking.  Such certainty is surely absent at this point in time.    

 

 

[twodjs]

My take on the recent Covid-19 seminar put on by Carnival Corp. was that once a vaccine is proven (realistically the first quarter of 2021), the very fastest an immunization has ever been dispensed to enough of the population to provide herd immunity is 5 months. So the end of 2021 is a much more realistic date to resume cruising. To date, every cruiseline that has attempted to restart has failed - even the Uncruise line in Alaska with only 35 guests. Even with months of planning, one guest tested positive after the first day. It only takes one...

[KirkNC]

June 2021 is my bet.

[jlnprt]

1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

Driving to a favorite beach on the East Coast:  I am going to need to make a pit stop at least once en route.  What's going to be reliably open?  McDonald's lobbies are closed.  Some states' Rest Areas restrooms are closed.  I stop at a hotel that has offered a small buffet breakfast in the past.  What can I expect--if anything?  Where in route can I be sure that I can get something to eat?  Particularly, if I need an over night stay somewhere?  

 

Recently traveling through Virginia and Tennessee, we found rest stops open and actively being cleaned. Gas stations (and rest rooms) right off the interstate open. Many restaurants open for take out. We had no trouble finding a hotel, but the typical breakfast buffet was reduced to "brown bag" breakfast consisting of a water bottle and individually wrapped breakfast bars/muffins. We were able to find a restaurant with outdoor seating (first restaurant we have been in in over 5 months!). Social distancing was in place and marked. Frequent cleaning was noticeable everywhere we went. 

[DFD1]

Maybe some short cruises in 2021 to test things out, but no cruises of 14 days or longer until much later, perhaps early 2022. We're a long way from anything close to normal in cruising...and in life.

IMO

[REOVA]

Unfortunately I don't think we have even touched the problems this will cause the cruise industry. Its great that TUI will pay for your flight back home, but what happens after that in your hometown hospital and treatment or if you don't survive. Is that really worth the gamble to get on a ship? We've seen multiple ships that have already started to cruise and already have "cases" (whether false positive or false negative). People can't even  follow guidelines on land now, how will we expect them to follow on ship in close quarters. Who decides that 10, 50, 250 people or 50%, 60%, 75% capacity is safe to travel. It only takes 1 person affected and not following protocol to infect everyone else. In past years (and I am sure now) people would not admit when they had a fever or were sick for fear they would miss out on their cruise or be quarantined. I am hopeful my booked cruise mid 2021 will sail (and safely) but realistically if the cruise industry cannot sail and get revenue for the next 12 months, they will be downsizing and possibly selling off pieces of partner lines. I wouldn't be surprised if CCL puts HAL on the "market" to pay down debts and losses. If the only way to sail is half full ships, that leaves only the larger ships being close to profitable and that is not the market demographic for HAL. Making HAL a Carnival or Princess model makes little sense to hold on to it as a separate entity. We will probably see other companies/investors continue to buy the smaller ships and hold until its safe while CCL looks to divest itself from holding a lot of unprofitable ships (or even filing BK) so it can restart. HAL's restart will probably be with a new owner if things don't change by Q3 2021.