US cruising in early January (speculation)

[TheMastodon]

Just now, BND said:

That was my point about the rate on campus actually being lower than the 1/10 of 1%.  That's a large enough sample to show that age plays a huge role.  I've posted it before, but in my county the over 80 age  group has the vast majority of deaths and all were of people in long term care facilities.  The death rate under 80 is a lot lower.  

 

62% of deaths in Ohio from long term care facilities.

 

Curious what Pratique thinks of Prisons - should we shut those down too and let everyone go and not arrest criminals?  Hear its spreading like wildfire in them... Ah screw it - let them all out.  My cousin Glock and uncle Sig live with me - ill be alright.  

[TheMastodon]

2 minutes ago, Pratique said:

Don't make this personal about me. The NYT was clear that there is no standard for reporting these numbers. Every school does it differently. You try to do it better?

 

And by the way, what do you think the average age of the faculty is? I'm over 50 and I'm teaching in person. Also, most schools just restarted in the past week or two. It took a week for UNH to report 11 cases traced to a frat party. In the meantime those students were going to class before their test results came back. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

 

You're right - I'm sorry.  You and I just have major differences on this.  From now on I will not engage with you because we will never be on the same page.  

[John&LaLa]

41 minutes ago, yogimax said:

From what I have read, they will need more than one source to produce all the vaccine that will be required.

 

Are you old enough to remember the polio vaccines... Salk and Sabin?

No, but I have an aunt who was one of the final cases. 

 

As far as needing multiple sources, totally get that, but if two or more competing vaccines pass trials, would multiple ones be available?

Maybe regional distribution. 

 

Also, could we see different vaccines worldwide 

[Pratique]

13 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

 

You're right - I'm sorry.  You and I just have major differences on this.  From now on I will not engage with you because we will never be on the same page.  

You haven't explained why your table only has 17 schools on it. Cherry picking the numbers? That's no better than the NYT.

[TheMastodon]

1 minute ago, Pratique said:

You haven't explained why your table only has 17 schools on it. Cherry picking the numbers? That's no better than the NYT.

 

No just the source I follow - sorry.

 

Clearly you aren't a statistics professor tho.  

[Pratique]

2 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

 

No just the source I follow - sorry.

 

Clearly you aren't a statistics professor tho.  

Please explain how 17 out of 4,360 schools is a valid statistical sample.

[Dennis#1]

3 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

Will they release competing vaccines in the US, and can you get the version you want?

Wonder if getting each version of the competing vaccines will decrease your chances of getting Covid-19.

[bigrednole]

The best part about statistics is they can be manipulated to any narrative that wants to be given. Another thing is 68.37% are made up on the spot with no data. There are NO, that's right, no factual data on Covid-19. Data for the first 3 months is drastically different than data collected now. The data in NY is different than the data from FL. Garbage In = Garbage Out.

 

The only real piece of data that was factual is the piece that came out that only 6% of deaths listed as Covid-19 were actually directly Covid-19 related. The other 94% of deaths had severe pre-existing and underlying conditions. Add to that the policies hospitals told all doctors to list deaths as Covd-19 because there are different billing practices to insurance, all of the data from the start is broken. No, I don't think covid-19 is fake, it is very real. What I do think is false is everything shutting down and people losing businesses because of false information. 

[Pratique]

16 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

As far as needing multiple sources, totally get that, but if two or more competing vaccines pass trials, would multiple ones be available?

Maybe regional distribution.

My state is already suggesting that long term care facilities will get first dibs on what the government can get their hands on, then it will become available more widely. I also presume that people willing to pay a premium will be able to get it through their doctor like they can with some Covid tests.

[time4u2go]

15 minutes ago, bigrednole said:

The best part about statistics is they can be manipulated to any narrative that wants to be given. Another thing is 68.37% are made up on the spot with no data. There are NO, that's right, no factual data on Covid-19. Data for the first 3 months is drastically different than data collected now. The data in NY is different than the data from FL. Garbage In = Garbage Out.

 

The only real piece of data that was factual is the piece that came out that only 6% of deaths listed as Covid-19 were actually directly Covid-19 related. The other 94% of deaths had severe pre-existing and underlying conditions. Add to that the policies hospitals told all doctors to list deaths as Covd-19 because there are different billing practices to insurance, all of the data from the start is broken. No, I don't think covid-19 is fake, it is very real. What I do think is false is everything shutting down and people losing businesses because of false information. 

😁

[yogimax]

53 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

 

62% of deaths in Ohio from long term care facilities.

I hope you are not saying that those lives are less important than others.

[Pratique]

2 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

😁

LOL. Even disproved theories still have a life. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cdc-mortality-statistics/

[yogimax]

7 minutes ago, Pratique said:

LOL. Even disproved theories still have a life. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cdc-mortality-statistics/

Quite right, yet this stuff continues to have a life of its own even after being disproved.

[A&L_Ont]

Flu VS Covid rate in the UK doesn’t seem to be all that relative at the moment. Covid appears to be regretfully “winning“. Thankfully those numbers are not the same as the highest rates. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-54056771

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/08/coronavirus-cases-rising-uk-second-wave

[Baron Barracuda]

1 hour ago, Tatka said:

 

 It depends of course on results of trials.

 

 I was also surprised that each company started to produce vaccines right away and will have millions of them. However it was explained to me that it is always a gamble. To have enough vaccines on time they must be produced.. and production itself is not that expensive in comparison to R&D.. and trials, so they gamble.

 

  If more than one is approved it is good as we will have more vaccines available.

No gamble for pharma companies.  US Govt purchased hundreds of millions of doses of several vaccine candidates.  If vaccine fails it's taxpayers loss. 

 

 

[Tatka]

4 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

No gamble for pharma companies.  US Govt purchased hundreds of millions of doses of several vaccine candidates.  If vaccine fails it's taxpayers loss. 

 

 

I understand ... just saying why production is happening before approval. Vaccine must be ready.

[Pratique]

25 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Quite right, yet this stuff continues to have a life of its own even after being disproved.

I have to admit that I had to study this claim for awhile to understand what was going on because it didn't pass the sniff test. I can't tell if some people just aren't aware of it's veracity, don't have a handle on it, or are intentionally spreading claims that they know are untrue. My MIL believes everything that confirms her bias and just closes her ears to any contradictory evidence by claiming that neither of us are expert enough to know for sure. It's unfortunate but it is what it is.

[bigrednole]

58 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

😁

Someone saw the sarcasm

[not-enough-cruising]

1 hour ago, Pratique said:

My state is already suggesting that long term care facilities will get first dibs on what the government can get their hands on, then it will become available more widely. I also presume that people willing to pay a premium will be able to get it through their doctor like they can with some Covid tests.

With the federal government funding a large portion o these vaccine developments under the project name "operation warp speed"; the feds will make the distribution schedule, not states (at least in the early phases of distribution).  HHS is still compiling recommendations for the distribution plans.

[Pratique]

5 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

With the federal government funding a large portion o these vaccine developments under the project name "operation warp speed"; the feds will make the distribution schedule, not states (at least in the early phases of distribution).  HHS is still compiling recommendations for the distribution plans.

That makes sense. I think our state HHS is proactively planning for the Nov. 1 date that came down from the WH but the governor doesn't think it will actually happen before January at the earliest. By then things will have changed.

[yogimax]

48 minutes ago, Pratique said:

 My MIL believes everything that confirms her bias and just closes her ears to any contradictory evidence by claiming that neither of us are expert enough to know for sure. It's unfortunate but it is what it is.

Many of us do the same. We hear what we want to hear.  What bothers me most is the false science and fake statistics that we see.

[MichiganMan4]

"The problem with internet quotes and sources is that you can't always depend on their accuracy"

–Abraham Lincoln, 1864

[Oxo]

1 hour ago, yogimax said:

What bothers me most is the false science and fake statistics that we see.

What is the truth or real stats? 

Where can wer find them? 

[Milwaukee Eight]

This thread is doomed 

 

M8

[A&L_Ont]

30 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

This thread is doomed 

 

M8

They almost all are until there is an official start day to cruises.
 

Lessen the chance if there is a vaccine and CDC has given the approval to industry start plans. 

Edited September 8, 2020 by A&L_Ont