What if Canada doesn't open its borders for cruises?

[chengkp75]

11 hours ago, JRG said:

 

Yes, I totally agree.  And this was the basis for my point on this subject some time ago,

 

I believe there is a possibility we may see such a shift in the business model.

Funny that you didn't quote the data that accompanies my statement about a shift in the business model.  Do you believe that the cruise lines will be willing to charge at least 3 times the current fares, just to get into the PVSA trade?

[JRG]

To use a Tom Clancy type of perspective.....I would say the cruise industry is at Defcon 3,   and that means that they will be looking at all options to stay out of Defcon 2.

 

It is not that I can't answer your question,  the rules of CC prevent us from discussing it the same way as if we were in person.  I can respect that.

 

We should look to IANCAL's  best guess suggestion for the time being.    I am going to vote with my feet and jump on his bandwagon for this one.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HappyInVan]

I have to agree. Lots of speculation on this forum.

 

Perhaps, the disease will disappear! Perhaps, the cruise industry can work a miracle? Perhaps, we'll turn back the clock with a vaccine!. Perhaps, the new management team will demonstrate competence and vanquish the bug?

 

No one knows. Just listen to Dr. Fauci and be safe.

 

[rkacruiser]

18 hours ago, JRG said:

I believe there is a possibility we may see such a shift in the business model.

 

I have also stated my opinion that if there was ever a time for considering a change in their business model, surely now is that time.  

 

I respect chengkp75's informative posts about this and understand the legal issues and problems that he has raised with attempting to change the cruise lines' business model.  His recent comment about--to paraphrase it--would one be willing to pay 3x what it would cost for such a cruise brings this thought to my mind.

 

In the interest of starting cruises again, would the cruise lines consider "swallowing" costs and consider these cruises as "loss leaders" as grocery stores do on a weekly basis for some items?  Such could not last forever, of course.  But, as cruising would once again resume--at least in my opinion--it will be more expensive than it has been for some time and such initial "losses" might be recouped?  

 

8 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Even if the cruise lines wanted this and lobbied for these changes, do you really think that they would be any sort of priority for Congress to act upon?

 

There is only one priority in our Nation's Capitol and that is what will happen on November 3rd.  

 

Mr. Pollyanna here, I will admit.  But, once the election is over, the log jam for legislation that now exists may be broken.  I am hopeful that I will see that in the United States House and Senate as well as in the Ohio House and the Ohio Senate.  Then, maybe--just maybe--such a change in laws that would permit cruises that are now illegal might be able to be passed.  

 

[foodsvcmgr]

Assuming NCL does not wish to redeploy Pride of America to either the West or East Coast, there are no other large US flag cruise ships in these markets.

With no one to complain about potential unfairness why couldn’t Congress pass a temporary exemption to operate just one season without foreign ports and not require wage changes, etc.?

For the benefit of the ports and their related workers equally as much as foreign cruise operators.

[chengkp75]

48 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

In the interest of starting cruises again, would the cruise lines consider "swallowing" costs and consider these cruises as "loss leaders" as grocery stores do on a weekly basis for some items?  Such could not last forever, of course.  But, as cruising would once again resume--at least in my opinion--it will be more expensive than it has been for some time and such initial "losses" might be recouped?  

A "loss leader"?  Let's see.  It is pretty well established that the cruise fare (pre-covid) covered the operating expenses, and the onboard spending was the profit.  Now, we have a choice:

1.  A non-operational ship with minimum operating expense (minimal crew, minimal fuel) and just the debt service.

2.  An operational ship with full operating expenses at 3 times previous (and likely higher since crew cost is 5 times more than foreign crew, and crew is much larger on cruise ships) (so we are losing 2 fares for every one purchased), and some onboard spending to make up a small portion of the "loss leader".

 

There is no way that the cruise industry would exist having to meet US laws.

[chengkp75]

1 minute ago, foodsvcmgr said:

Assuming NCL does not wish to redeploy Pride of America to either the West or East Coast, there are no other large US flag cruise ships in these markets.

With no one to complain about potential unfairness why couldn’t Congress pass a temporary exemption to operate just one season without foreign ports and not require wage changes, etc.?

For the benefit of the ports and their related workers equally as much as foreign cruise operators.

First off, Pride of America is limited to operating in the Hawaiian Islands, it cannot do PVSA cruises anywhere else in the US, with the exception of repositioning to/from a drydock.

 

And, the ones who would complain about real, not potential, unfairness would be:  Alaska Marine Highway, Circle Line Ferry in NYC, Washington State Ferry, American Cruise Lines, Blount Small Ship Adventures, hundreds of river ferries, dinner cruises, casino boats, whale watching boats, and even the unsafe at any time duck boats.

 

And, all the unemployed folks in the US, do you think they will take kindly to allowing foreign workers to work in the US?

[foodsvcmgr]

All good points, the onus certainly would need to be helping port cities and those Americans in travel and tourism there as I mentioned, more so than the cruise lines.

I did not realize POA was restricted to Hawaii as there had been some speculation in the Spring that she might have relocated to Alaska this season had Covid subsided.

[rkacruiser]

24 minutes ago, foodsvcmgr said:

the onus certainly would need to be helping port cities and those Americans in travel and tourism

 

In part, this was part of my thinking as well when I made my most recent post.

[rkacruiser]

For the cruise industry as we know it to survive, something has got to change.

 

The news tonight has Dr. Fauci stating that any sense of "normality pre-Covid-19" is unlikely to occur before late 2021.  

 

Laws were made by humans.  They can be changed by humans.  Just as rules and regulations.  What was appropriate many decades ago may not now be appropriate in this part of the 21st Century.  

 

Is it possible that the hospitality and tourism industry will be able to survive until the end of 2021 without some major changes of the rules, regulations, and laws that govern some aspects of the industry?  

[ronrythm]

4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

First off, Pride of America is limited to operating in the Hawaiian Islands, it cannot do PVSA cruises anywhere else in the US, with the exception of repositioning to/from a drydock.

 

And, the ones who would complain about real, not potential, unfairness would be:  Alaska Marine Highway, Circle Line Ferry in NYC, Washington State Ferry, American Cruise Lines, Blount Small Ship Adventures, hundreds of river ferries, dinner cruises, casino boats, whale watching boats, and even the unsafe at any time duck boats.

 

And, all the unemployed folks in the US, do you think they will take kindly to allowing foreign workers to work in the US?

You can take Blount off of that list. They ceased operations in August. Not the last business we’ll see go down in these times.

stay safe

Ron

 

[npcl]

2 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

For the cruise industry as we know it to survive, something has got to change.

 

The news tonight has Dr. Fauci stating that any sense of "normality pre-Covid-19" is unlikely to occur before late 2021.  

 

Laws were made by humans.  They can be changed by humans.  Just as rules and regulations.  What was appropriate many decades ago may not now be appropriate in this part of the 21st Century.  

 

Is it possible that the hospitality and tourism industry will be able to survive until the end of 2021 without some major changes of the rules, regulations, and laws that govern some aspects of the industry?  

if the covid case counts get low enough for cruises to safely operate then the ports will open so no law changes will be necessary. if the case counts stay so high that the ports remain closed then it is too high for cruises to operate so again no changes needed.

[HappyInVan]

I agree with ncpl. 

 

It is what it is. Restaurants and nightclubs are closing where covid is not under control. Cruise companies have to adapt and downsize. Not every brand will survive.

 

The faster we bring the disease under control, the sooner we can cruise again. More brands will survive.

[ontheweb]

14 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

First off, Pride of America is limited to operating in the Hawaiian Islands, it cannot do PVSA cruises anywhere else in the US, with the exception of repositioning to/from a drydock.

 

And, the ones who would complain about real, not potential, unfairness would be:  Alaska Marine Highway, Circle Line Ferry in NYC, Washington State Ferry, American Cruise Lines, Blount Small Ship Adventures, hundreds of river ferries, dinner cruises, casino boats, whale watching boats, and even the unsafe at any time duck boats.

 

And, all the unemployed folks in the US, do you think they will take kindly to allowing foreign workers to work in the US?

Once again the voice of reason.

[rkacruiser]

18 hours ago, ronrythm said:

You can take Blount off of that list. They ceased operations in August. Not the last business we’ll see go down in these times.

stay safe

Ron

 

 

I just checked their website as a result of reading your post.  They are saying that they hope to be able to resume in 2021.  I'd hate to see them "go under" because they have offered a cruise product that appealed to many for a very long time.  

[rkacruiser]

13 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Cruise companies have to adapt

 

Agree.  A change in some laws, rules, and regulations that would permit cruises with no port calls would help them adapt.  Based on what I have read on CC, there probably is a market for such cruises, at least initially. 

 

13 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

The faster we bring the disease under control, the sooner we can cruise again. More brands will survive.

 

No disagreement from me.  We need more cooperation from more of our countrymen for that to happen.  

 

13 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Restaurants and nightclubs are closing

 

The news today from the CDC may be more discouraging for the business prospects of some restaurants.  A relationship has been found between those testing positive for the virus and their patronage of a restaurant in the preceding two weeks.  

[npcl]

5 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Agree.  A change in some laws, rules, and regulations that would permit cruises with no port calls would help them adapt.  Based on what I have read on CC, there probably is a market for such cruises, at least initially. 

 

 

No disagreement from me.  We need more cooperation from more of our countrymen for that to happen.  

 

 

The news today from the CDC may be more discouraging for the business prospects of some restaurants.  A relationship has been found between those testing positive for the virus and their patronage of a restaurant in the preceding two weeks.  

Nothing will be gained by changing the laws to allow a cruise to nowhere. Because if it is safe enough to do cruises to nowhere, ports will open for them to cruise to.

 

if the Caribbean ports consider the counts in the us to be too high for them to open for cruise ships then those same counts will be too high to operate.

 

The cruises in Europe have been some what successful because of low case counts in the populations in Italy and Germany. Now that counts in some European countries are going up no surprise that problems are showing up. Frances counts of new cases are climbing per million per day is approaching US level. No surprise a river cruise had an outbreak started by someone from France.

 

Want cruises to start, the best way is not to change laws but instead get new case counts down.

[Cruzaholic41]

On 9/9/2020 at 12:07 AM, HappyInVan said:

Canada is happy to open its borders once there are no more super spreader events.

 

“Study says 260,000 COVID-19 cases could be tied to Sturgis rally; Noem calls it 'fiction'

 

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2020/09/08/study-260-000-coronavirus-cases-likely-tied-sturgis-rally/5739139002/

 

 

The exact number is unclear. However, the official stat from South Dakota is revealing. The Rally started August 7 and ended August 16. Prior to the Rally, SD cases were @100/day. August 7 98 cases, August 16 156 cases, August 22 251 cases, August 29 425 cases, Sept 8 103 cases.

 

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/south-dakota/cases

 

Might want to look a little closer at the facts. It turned out to be fake news. 

[HappyInVan]

The article in the Argus Leader has a link to this 63 page publication. Lots of charts, tables etc.

 

https://cheps.sdsu.edu/docs/Contagion_Externality_Sturgis_Motorcycle_Rally_9-5-20_Dave_et_al.pdf?_ga=2.81569950.884710651.1599969932-1634587553.1599616085

 

 

[em-sk]

On 9/10/2020 at 2:57 PM, kazu said:

 

Yup pretty cynical 😉 

Canada is simply using health protocols like most countries are all over the world.

It has nothing to do with politics.  Believe me it is in our best interest to have our borders open, but safety first is the priority here 😉. And that is what our politicians are working on in a mostly non partisan way and for the good of those of us who live here.

they blew it at the beginning with the retirement homes, etc., but they learned fast and are listening to the scientists.  That’s all anyone can do right now.

 

There may be some debate in Canada between the political parties on what is the correct course of action. Leaving that aside, the current government has been very science focused (several ministers in cabinet are trained as scientists, doctors or engineers before going into politics) and a strong focus on multi-national strategies.   Several of the senior medical people in Canada have worked for the WHO before.   

 

End result is Canada is following a very science/data driven path on this.  Before closing the boarder with the US , the restriction Canada had in place was on cruise ships with more than 500 people.   Once the US numbers come down I would expect the boarder with the US to open.  Smaller ships would like start and then larger ones over time.

Edited September 13, 2020 by em-sk

[HappyInVan]

NY is an example where covid is under control. In fact, the daily infections per capita is similar to that of Ontario. As is the positivity rate. It is conceivable that Eastern Canada and the Maritime could form a bubble with the Northeast States.

 

The ability of NY to keep the state safe for the last three months is a reflection of the effectiveness of the government. To isolate travelers from hotspots, and to prevent large events like motorcycle rallies.

 

I would make the case that cruises can resume from NY to New England to NL, Maritime and QC. With the necessary restrictions and safety processes.

 

[kazu]

3 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

NY is an example where covid is under control. In fact, the daily infections per capita is similar to that of Ontario. As is the positivity rate. It is conceivable that Eastern Canada and the Maritime could form a bubble with the Northeast States.

 

I can’t envision that new bubble forming for a while.  Our daily infection rate in New Brunswick  is much lower than Ontario and Quebec’s, currently.   

 

Quote

I would make the case that cruises can resume from NY to New England to NL, Maritime and QC. With the necessary restrictions and safety processes.

 

And I would make the case that will have to be  further in the future if/when it happens.  Right now, most people here are not anxious to have the borders opened to the east (Quebec) or south of us (U.S.) as evidenced by a poll recently taken with a resounding no.  

 

Here’s the current situation as of September 12th.  There is a HUGE difference between the infection rate in Quebec, Ontario and New Brunswick.

 

 

 

 

 

[HappyInVan]

2 hours ago, kazu said:

 

2 hours ago, kazu said:

Here’s the current situation as of September 12th.  There is a HUGE difference between the infection rate in Quebec, Ontario and New Brunswick.

 

 

Quite right. The Maritime (pop 1.8m) has had exactly 16 cases in the last 14 days. No other place can match that. No point jeopardizing the sacrifices you made.

 

In BC, there has been a large second wave. Very sad.  The government has closed nightclubs and banquet halls again. Alcohol will no longer be served after 10 pm in restaurants/pubs.

 

[drowelf]

17 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

The news today from the CDC may be more discouraging for the business prospects of some restaurants.  A relationship has been found between those testing positive for the virus and their patronage of a restaurant in the preceding two weeks.  

That was not too surprising to me. It makes sense as in a restaurant you have a gathering of random people indoors were the use of face masks for the patrons has to be suspended for a period of time. While the servers remained masked the entire time, the patrons are pretty much unmasked for the majority of their time in the restaurant. Its pretty had to eat a meal through a mask. 

[rkacruiser]

10 hours ago, drowelf said:

That was not too surprising to me. It makes sense as in a restaurant you have a gathering of random people indoors were the use of face masks for the patrons has to be suspended for a period of time. While the servers remained masked the entire time, the patrons are pretty much unmasked for the majority of their time in the restaurant. Its pretty had to eat a meal through a mask. 

 

Not surprising to me, but disappointing to learn.  I have not patronized a restaurant for in-door dining since mid-March.  I have been trying to "screw up my courage" to do so.  I am glad that I am OK with my own cooking.  It's seems that it is wise to wait a bit longer for me to contribute to the restaurant industry's financial well being.