RCI Quantum of the Seas Outbreak

[mpk]

One false positive hardly measures up to an "outbreak"  lol

[twangster]

14 hours ago, RWolver672 said:

Outbreak definition, a sudden breaking out or occurrence, especially of something bad or unpleasant

 

Let's work on that a bit:

 

Media or news outbreak definition - a sudden breaking out or occurrence, especially freaking out and blowing items out of perspective in the pursuit of clicks, ratings and ad revenue irrespective of the facts.

 

3 hours ago, crzndeb said:

The 83 yo with diarrhea

 

I keep telling people... don't eat at Izumi.  

 

8 hours ago, skridge said:

I don't know what the numbers are in Singapore, but I hope this is a cautionary tale for the restarting of cruising in the US in the middle of the dumpster fire we are in the middle of right now.  

 

There is no community spread in Singapore.  Zero new cases.  The only new cases are due to arriving international passenger or "imported cases" of which there were 12 yesterday, 6 today.  Most of those are work permit holders.  Although sometimes a Singapore resident arriving home from international travel is positive.  The Stay Home Order for international arrivals catches these cases (protocols work).  

 

If you think a country with zero domestic new cases should ban cruising that equates to a complete eradication of the virus worldwide as a requirement to cruise or travel.  That may never occur or it could be in 2027 or beyond, we don't know yet.  

[skridge]

7 hours ago, crzndeb said:

The 83 yo with diarrhea had 2 other tests that were negative, once he was off the ship. So no Covid. And the numbers in Singapore are very low.

From Feb 1 to Nov 28, over 500k have died from heart disease. I would think more people would think about getting healthy, than getting Covid. There, I said it. Flame away.

 

Covid killed more than heart disease last week.  I don't consider that a flame as much as a fact.  The false negative test still proves my point as one of the many things that are going to false start the cruise companies into bankruptcy court.  BTW I agree with you that people should think about getting healthy, but that should be a seperate post entitled step away from your third trip to the buffet in the past hour.

Edited December 10, 2020 by skridge
added last sentence

[skridge]

3 hours ago, twangster said:

 

Let's work on that a bit:

 

Media or news outbreak definition - a sudden breaking out or occurrence, especially freaking out and blowing items out of perspective in the pursuit of clicks, ratings and ad revenue irrespective of the facts.

 

 

I keep telling people... don't eat at Izumi.  

 

 

There is no community spread in Singapore.  Zero new cases.  The only new cases are due to arriving international passenger or "imported cases" of which there were 12 yesterday, 6 today.  Most of those are work permit holders.  Although sometimes a Singapore resident arriving home from international travel is positive.  The Stay Home Order for international arrivals catches these cases (protocols work).  

 

If you think a country with zero domestic new cases should ban cruising that equates to a complete eradication of the virus worldwide as a requirement to cruise or travel.  That may never occur or it could be in 2027 or beyond, we don't know yet.  

My point still stands that even given all of the things you stated there was a false positive on a boat that made it have to come back.  It seems like this is going to continue to happen.  That is just the realistic view of the situation.  I know realistic thinking is frowned upon on these boards.  

[pe4all]

Unfortunately no matter how much we test or vaccinate I think someone will fall through the cracks, causing problems not only on cruise ships, but anywhere covid can rear it's ugly head.  Since having a temperature is no longer a positive symptom of having covid (not everyone is symptomatic) testing or filling out paperwork saying you have no symptoms may not cut it.  

[crewsweeper]

1 hour ago, pe4all said:

Unfortunately no matter how much we test or vaccinate I think someone will fall through the cracks, causing problems not only on cruise ships, but anywhere covid can rear it's ugly head.  Since having a temperature is no longer a positive symptom of having covid (not everyone is symptomatic) testing or filling out paperwork saying you have no symptoms may not cut it.  

You may be correct.  The areas in the US where masks restrictions are imposed have continued to see outbreaks.  What has been found in some observational studies is that wearing a masks creates a sense of safety and closer contact with others wearing masks.  But masks, especially the cloth masks that are so prevalent today, do a poor job of preventing contraction of the virus.  Masks get wet from your breathe and can't filter particles.  Wet masks, even the N-95 masks, worn for a whole work day, inside with no HEPA type ventilation filtering, become less protective the longer they are worn.  But constant changing of masks isn't always possible or being carried out.

 

Thus on a cruise ship, even with pre-and post-boarding testing,  the virus, if present, can be spread.

People booking cruises need to be aware of these factors and then judge their own risk and risk mitigation.  Or else, the governments and CDCs, WHOs of the world will dictate their own, and often unscientific, restrictions to "stop the spread".

[evandbob]

So the moral of the story is that a cruise can still be disrupted without COVID on board.

 

Not something I would pay money for or how I want my vacation time used up..........

[twangster]

3 hours ago, skridge said:

My point still stands that even given all of the things you stated there was a false positive on a boat that made it have to come back.  It seems like this is going to continue to happen.  That is just the realistic view of the situation.  I know realistic thinking is frowned upon on these boards.  

 

Absolutely and that is the right thing to do today since there is no vaccine today even in a community with zero community spread.

 

Same can be said for a church, school, restaurant, ballpark, movie theater, etc.  

 

Once a vaccine is commonly available and has been taken by the appropriate numbers such a drastic response won't be required.  

 

Absent of vaccine one positive case (false or not) shutting down an activity is the realistic expectation today.  

 

It's why I've cleared my 2021 cruise calendar and I'm hoping cruising in 2022 will yield a better experience.  

 

[tm_aw_love]

23 hours ago, RWolver672 said:

 

Outbreak definition, a sudden breaking out or occurrence, especially of something bad or unpleasant

I'm sure you meant, when related to a virus An outbreak is a sudden rise in the number of cases... which is clearly not the case here, since there was only one 'suspected' case. But thank you for the vocabulary lesson. 

[pc_load_letter]

20 hours ago, skridge said:

It's completely predictable this was going to happen.  It seems the cruise lines are going to false start there way into bankruptcy court.  The hospital numbers in NC are going through the roof along with the numbers all over the country.  I don't know what the numbers are in Singapore, but I hope this is a cautionary tale for the restarting of cruising in the US in the middle of the dumpster fire we are in the middle of right now.  

 

I've said it before and will sail again, the cruise lines can pull it off. We all are well aware of MSC in Italy right now doing just fine.

 

Not a peep from them except when they kick off people for not following the protocols.

[travelhound]

On 12/9/2020 at 8:46 AM, tm_aw_love said:

The concern should not be that a a case of COVID has gotten on to a ship, as that should have been expected. The true test is to see if it genuinely turns into an outbreak (as the subject of this thread is prematurely predicting) or if the safety protocols that have been mandated will help to mitigate the spread; as they are supposed to. 

Good point 👍

[Doggielover68]

9 hours ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

I've said it before and will sail again, the cruise lines can pull it off. We all are well aware of MSC in Italy right now doing just fine.

 

Not a peep from them except when they kick off people for not following the protocols.

The keyword here is "Italy."

 

The US is a complete disaster with 3,000 + deaths daily and people who still think that it's a hoax, or refusing to wear a mask, or spreading fake news about vaccines. The cruiselines would not be able to pull off cruises from the states. 

[jfunk138]

10 hours ago, Doggielover68 said:

The keyword here is "Italy."

 

The US is a complete disaster with 3,000 + deaths daily and people who still think that it's a hoax, or refusing to wear a mask, or spreading fake news about vaccines. The cruiselines would not be able to pull off cruises from the states. 

Who is the complete disaster?  Italy seems to be doing FAR worse than the US.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..latest&country=USA~ITA&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

[St.Pete]

On 12/9/2020 at 6:06 AM, RWolver672 said:

Looks like another set-back for sailings.  https://en.mercopress.com/2020/12/09/quantum-of-the-seas-returns-to-port-due-to-suspected-covid-19-case

I wonder if the 'volunteers' would still be lining up had it proceeded.

Sounds like it will be a LONG time before cruising resumes, if ever.

[jean87510]

26 minutes ago, St.Pete said:

I wonder if the 'volunteers' would still be lining up had it proceeded.

Sounds like it will be a LONG time before cruising resumes, if ever.

I could be wrong but this is the case from 2 days ago that turned out to be diarrhea and negative for covid.  

[firefly333]

53 minutes ago, St.Pete said:

I wonder if the 'volunteers' would still be lining up had it proceeded.

Sounds like it will be a LONG time before cruising resumes, if ever.

Seems way blown out of proportion... they came back 1/2 day early, but then had to wait to debark due to another cruise was debating, 

 

As far as volunteers, there is a reason they are telling you they will practice for a outbreak. Assume you will get quarantined if you volunteer. The cruiseline has to give you a warning before you board they will be practicing for perhaps the worse case. You also have to have  doctors note to volunteer. So you knew almost anything could occur.

 

Singapore is only doing I think it says 3 and 4 day cruises to  nowhere and has to stay within 6 hours of the port and if there is a positive the ship comes back in. Probably some refund. You got some free food and drinks for a few days. You knew the risk and terms going in. Give me a cheap suite and I'll spend a few days onboard if my doctor would sign off, which he wouldnt. Singapore only sold balconies and up, no insides or ovs. 

[crzndeb]

Singapore is one of the cleanest places I have ever been to. You could eat off the subway floors, it’s that clean. I took a cup of coffee on one morning and didn’t realize there was $1000 fine for food and drink onboard the metro. I quickly put it under my backpack, until I exited.
I believe their cruising test protocols, tracking, before and on the ship are probably one of the best. I hope that the sailings continue to sail Covid free.

I have a cruise out of there at the end of Apr/2021. I think the only thing that may prevent me from sailing is if Americans aren’t allowed in Singapore. I am more than willing to follow any protocols they have in place. I also have no issues wearing a mask. 
Singapore is one of my favorite cities.

[skridge]

12 hours ago, jfunk138 said:

Who is the complete disaster?  Italy seems to be doing FAR worse than the US.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..latest&country=USA~ITA&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

Do you notice how at the end of the graph Italy is in a freefall down and the US is spiraling up.  Italy also has 60 million people compared to the US with 331 million.

[Cousin Eddie]

1 hour ago, skridge said:

Do you notice how at the end of the graph Italy is in a freefall down and the US is spiraling up.  Italy also has 60 million people compared to the US with 331 million.

Hopefully we are making our way to end of this terrible time and everyone will stay safe as best they can. Meanwhile its important to try to limit hyperbole and misinformation by dispassionate observation of facts from reliable sources.

 

The mortality rate measured per capita normalizes for population for comparison. So while the sheer number of victims in the United States is staggering and tragic, the relative size of the two countries is inconsequential to the rate when the comparison is per capita. According to Johns Hopkins the US is doing poorly,  but is faring better than a number of European countries including Italy and Belgium.

 

This bears true even when isolating the comparison to the last 7 days, so it would be a mistake to infer too much from the rather short trend line illustrated on the graph above while ignoring the time scale represented on the x-axis which tends to make the trend appear more prominent than it actually is. By zooming in on the scale  such as below, it is apparent that the US is not spiraling up, neither is Italy in free fall. 

 

 

Cases and mortality by country

Country	Confirmed	Deaths	Case-Fatality	Deaths/100K pop.
Belgium	600,397	17,692	2.9%	154.89
San Marino	1,868	49	2.6%	145.03
Peru	979,111	36,499	3.7%	114.10
Italy	1,787,147	62,626	3.5%	103.63
Spain	1,720,056	47,344	2.8%	101.33
Andorra	7,190	78	1.1%	101.29
North Macedonia	70,883	2,051	2.9%	98.47
Bosnia and Herzegovina	98,603	3,199	3.2%	96.24
United Kingdom	1,792,611	63,179	3.5%	95.02
Slovenia	91,922	1,949	2.1%	94.27
Montenegro	40,165	566	1.4%	90.95
Argentina	1,482,216	40,431	2.7%	90.87
United States	15,611,014	292,141	1.9%	89.29
Mexico	1,217,126	112,326	9.2%	89.01
Czechia	563,333	9,226	1.6%	86.83
Brazil	6,781,799	179,765	2.7%	85.82
France	2,391,643	57,044	2.4%	85.16

[skridge]

5 hours ago, Cousin Eddie said:

Hopefully we are making our way to end of this terrible time and everyone will stay safe as best they can. Meanwhile its important to try to limit hyperbole and misinformation by dispassionate observation of facts from reliable sources.

 

The mortality rate measured per capita normalizes for population for comparison. So while the sheer number of victims in the United States is staggering and tragic, the relative size of the two countries is inconsequential to the rate when the comparison is per capita. According to Johns Hopkins the US is doing poorly,  but is faring better than a number of European countries including Italy and Belgium.

 

This bears true even when isolating the comparison to the last 7 days, so it would be a mistake to infer too much from the rather short trend line illustrated on the graph above while ignoring the time scale represented on the x-axis which tends to make the trend appear more prominent than it actually is. By zooming in on the scale  such as below, it is apparent that the US is not spiraling up, neither is Italy in free fall. 

 

 

Cases and mortality by country

Country	Confirmed	Deaths	Case-Fatality	Deaths/100K pop.
Belgium	600,397	17,692	2.9%	154.89
San Marino	1,868	49	2.6%	145.03
Peru	979,111	36,499	3.7%	114.10
Italy	1,787,147	62,626	3.5%	103.63
Spain	1,720,056	47,344	2.8%	101.33
Andorra	7,190	78	1.1%	101.29
North Macedonia	70,883	2,051	2.9%	98.47
Bosnia and Herzegovina	98,603	3,199	3.2%	96.24
United Kingdom	1,792,611	63,179	3.5%	95.02
Slovenia	91,922	1,949	2.1%	94.27
Montenegro	40,165	566	1.4%	90.95
Argentina	1,482,216	40,431	2.7%	90.87
United States	15,611,014	292,141	1.9%	89.29
Mexico	1,217,126	112,326	9.2%	89.01
Czechia	563,333	9,226	1.6%	86.83
Brazil	6,781,799	179,765	2.7%	85.82
France	2,391,643	57,044	2.4%	85.16

71+ million cases worldwide.  1.5 Million Deaths worldwide.  295k + deaths in the US.  15 million+ cases in the U.S.  U.S. deaths projected to be 410,000 by the end of the year.  This is not hyperbole.  This is not misinformation.  I don't understand how it is someone can downplay and sluff off these grim statistics.  If we have a 9/11 number of deaths every day for the last few days and we are not making our way to the end.  We have many more months of this before the vaccine can be distributed and all of this is assuming enough of the this thing is hoax crowd is willing to take the vaccine.  With some of the misinformation I see on these boards it could make one nervous.

[firefly333]

11 hours ago, crzndeb said:

Singapore is one of the cleanest places I have ever been to. You could eat off the subway floors, it’s that clean. I took a cup of coffee on one morning and didn’t realize there was $1000 fine for food and drink onboard the metro. I quickly put it under my backpack, until I exited.
I believe their cruising test protocols, tracking, before and on the ship are probably one of the best. I hope that the sailings continue to sail Covid free.

I have a cruise out of there at the end of Apr/2021. I think the only thing that may prevent me from sailing is if Americans aren’t allowed in Singapore. I am more than willing to follow any protocols they have in place. I also have no issues wearing a mask. 
Singapore is one of my favorite cities.

Right now only residents are Singapore are allowed on these sailings, which is what made the positive all the more surprising.  Glad it turned out to be we cant trust testing, not a real positive.

 

Agree all protocols were the best. 

[Cousin Eddie]

17 hours ago, skridge said:

Do you notice how at the end of the graph Italy is in a freefall down and the US is spiraling up.  Italy also has 60 million people compared to the US with 331 million.

The statistics provided by Johns Hopkins prove this statement to be hyperbole and misinformation.

9 hours ago, skridge said:

I don't understand how it is someone can downplay and sluff off these grim statistics.  If we have a 9/11 number of deaths every day for the last few days and we are not making our way to the end. 

I have not attempted to downplay anything. I simply corrected your misuse of the graph provided by another user from which you drew incorrect conclusions and thus spread misinformation.

I said the US, like the rest of the world is faring poorly against this virus. I do not however choose to subscribe to the eternal doom and gloom that some seem to have a perverse need to wallow in. The vaccines have arrived.  They are being distributed. There is victory on the horizon. We may or may not eradicate the virus, but we will defeat the pandemic, that is no longer in question.

Will it take months to conquer this pandemic? Absolutely! But when you look at how dire the future looked just 8 months ago, I think it is appropriate to be optimistic and enthusiastic about the future.

In fact studying the amazing response from world governments and the scientific community to so quickly isolate the virus structure and develop a mRNA vaccine, and cooperate to see worldwide distribution efforts well underway is absolutely a reason to celebrate. The potential exists for this unprecedented effort to provide a knock on effect of scientific breakthroughs for years to come.

While I agree that there are some on these boards that seem to dismiss the seriousness of the pandemic, I have not and I don't give any weight to their arguments.

As someone who lost a family member as a result of 9/11, I find the invoking of 9/11 to make a point about pandemic response to be an unnecessary attempt to draw an emotive response instead of letting the facts and figures speak for themselves. They tell a grim enough story on their own. Reason, logic, science and cooperation will see us through this dark time and then hoaxsters and the chicken littles will have to find the next thing to belittle each other over.

 

[firefly333]

USA 73% is spread in the home or from private groups meeting.

 

Shutting down a restaurant that is contributing 1% to the spread isnt helping. Its making people meet here even more privately.

 

Unless you do something like stop family members and churches and private get togethers the virus isnt stopped.

 

I have no idea what australia did and tbh dont care, as they wouldn't shut down things that matter to the politicians here who make the decisions. Our daily dart train downtown, well cant stop that, flying around, nothing to really stop a sick person from flying home, that's how it came here in the beginning.

 

The things they are choosing to shut down to me are grandstanding and breast beating, see what I did, and then they turn 300 prisoners loose, many of whom are sick, and we have daily people coming across the mexican border here. El Paso been in trouble forever, we arent a island, our southern border is wide open. Sorry but to me nothing to do with science. 

 

Now add in we dont do contract tracing, I think too much trouble? Idk but that might help. I dont see any science saying it is dangerous to eat outside in calif. But it's ok in florida. Disney world is safe, but not Walt Disney world. Please explain the science to me why these decisions are science based. ..but I probably wouldnt believe you.

[Fredette]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

USA 73% is spread in the home or from private groups meeting.

 

Shutting down a restaurant that is contributing 1% to the spread isnt helping. Its making people meet here even more privately.

 

Unless you do something like stop family members and churches and private get togethers the virus isnt stopped.

 

I have no idea what australia did and tbh dont care, as they wouldn't shut down things that matter to the politicians here who make the decisions. Our daily dart train downtown, well cant stop that, flying around, nothing to really stop a sick person from flying home, that's how it came here in the beginning.

 

The things they are choosing to shut down to me are grandstanding and breast beating, see what I did, and then they turn 300 prisoners loose, many of whom are sick, and we have daily people coming across the mexican border here. El Paso been in trouble forever, we arent a island, our southern border is wide open. Sorry but to me nothing to do with science. 

 

Now add in we dont do contract tracing, I think too much trouble? Idk but that might help. I dont see any science saying it is dangerous to eat outside in calif. But it's ok in florida. Disney world is safe, but not Walt Disney world. Please explain the science to me why these decisions are science based. ..but I probably wouldnt believe you.

Many of the things you have cited as needing to be closed were closed (get togethers in homes, church meetings etc...) and you are right that there is no science in letting an amusement park be open.  They were all closed here until recently.  

 

The science is that you have to stop people from mixing in order to stop the disease from spreading.  It's pretty simple.  Yes, family members will pass it among themselves, but they won't spread it to households that don't have it already.  That gives the hospitals the chance to treat the people who do have it without getting overwhelmed.  Once the medical system can't cope, people who shouldn't have died will.  It's not just those who have covid, but can you imagine having a non covid medical emergency, and being unable to get treatment because there are no beds/no doctors/nurses available?  It's just tragedy upon tragedy, and could so easily be avoided.

 

I see that you don't think that anything Australia did had any value, but our management of our outbreaks is the envy of the world (including doctors in the USA) so it's clear we had the right approach.

 

Now all we have to do is keep on top of things until there is a worldwide "solution" - be it one or other of the vaccines being touted at the moment.  Once the disease is under control, then we can open our borders again.  At the moment, the only "new cases" we have are all because dual citizens who are getting sick overseas are now wanting to return "home" to Australia to get medical treatment.  So we let them back in, quarantine them and treat them, and keep them away from the rest of the community so they don't infect others.

In the meantime, we watch what is happening in the USA and Europe, and are saddened by the daily casualty numbers.  

It's so unneccessary, and so tragic that people are dying because the simple solutions are too difficult to implement.

[firefly333]

42 minutes ago, Fredette said:

Many of the things you have cited as needing to be closed were closed (get togethers in homes, church meetings etc...) and you are right that there is no science in letting an amusement park be open.  They were all closed here until recently.  

 

The science is that you have to stop people from mixing in order to stop the disease from spreading.  It's pretty simple.  Yes, family members will pass it among themselves, but they won't spread it to households that don't have it already.  That gives the hospitals the chance to treat the people who do have it without getting overwhelmed.  Once the medical system can't cope, people who shouldn't have died will.  It's not just those who have covid, but can you imagine having a non covid medical emergency, and being unable to get treatment because there are no beds/no doctors/nurses available?  It's just tragedy upon tragedy, and could so easily be avoided.

 

I see that you don't think that anything Australia did had any value, but our management of our outbreaks is the envy of the world (including doctors in the USA) so it's clear we had the right approach.

 

Now all we have to do is keep on top of things until there is a worldwide "solution" - be it one or other of the vaccines being touted at the moment.  Once the disease is under control, then we can open our borders again.  At the moment, the only "new cases" we have are all because dual citizens who are getting sick overseas are now wanting to return "home" to Australia to get medical treatment.  So we let them back in, quarantine them and treat them, and keep them away from the rest of the community so they don't infect others.

In the meantime, we watch what is happening in the USA and Europe, and are saddened by the daily casualty numbers.  

It's so unneccessary, and so tragic that people are dying because the simple solutions are too difficult to implement.

I'm sure Australia did great. My point is I have no control here and our southern border with mexico is open. If 73% is being spread here by family and private meetings, and 1% dining, I think it is a shame to close outdoor dining and not address the other. 

 

As I expected you ignored the problems here I pointed out and gloated about how well where you are doing there, which is a island and it worked so much better. 

 

I feel bad for restaurants going out of business here, calif closed outdoor dining which isnt a big risk. Deal with the big risks. Every 1 of the 50 states here has different policies, not 1 like your island. I knew you wouldnt get it. You didnt. I have a issue with closing outdoor dining especially where every safeguard possible is being done.

Edited December 14, 2020 by firefly333