Do You Think Celebrity Is Pleased With Caribbean Bookings So Far?

[RICCruisers]

Since I have a bit of time on my hands, I checked the numbers of cabins available on two of the cruises leaving St Marteen.  My question is - Is X happy or disappointed with current bookings given how much has been made about people really wanting to get back on the water?  Here are the numbers (I only checked Sky Suites in these numbers):

 

July 3rd - Aruba, Curacao, Barbados

- Sky Suites - 21 Booked out of 32 - 66% Booked

- Aqua - 56 Booked out of 107 - 52% Booked

- Concierge - 72 Booked out of 158 - 46% Booked

- Veranda - 145 Booked out of 296 - 49% Booked

- Total Bookings - 294 Booked out of 593 - 50% Booked

 

July 10th - BVI, St Lucia, Barbados

- Sky Suites - 21 Booked out of 32 - 66% Booked

- Aqua - 58 Booked out of 107 - 54% Booked

- Concierge - 49 Booked out of 158 - 31% Booked

- Veranda - 146 Booked out of 296 - 49% Booked

- Total Bookings -  274 Booked out of 593 - 46% Booked

 

The % booked for the entire ship does not include OV and Inside since those cabins are not available.  Your thoughts are appreciated.

[HskrCrsr]

I have read that ships become profitable at about 50% capacity. Since they should be sailing with reduced capacity, I would think X would be pleased.

 

Weren't there supposed to be test cruises that were going to be free to the guests? Aren't these now test cruises where they got the guests to pay? I think X is probably loving it.

 

IMHO, of course.

[Fouremco]

9 minutes ago, HskrCrsr said:

I have read that ships become profitable at about 50% capacity. Since they should be sailing with reduced capacity, I would think X would be pleased.

 

Weren't there supposed to be test cruises that were going to be free to the guests? Aren't these now test cruises where they got the guests to pay? I think X is probably loving it.

 

IMHO, of course.

I believe that the 50% booking target for being profitable is based on the full capacity of the ship, not the modified capacity for the St. Maarten cruises. As Celebrity has already reduce potential capacity to the 40-60% range of full capacity by excluding OV and inside cabins, they'd have to be running close to 100% booking of these available cabins. RICCruiser's show that the bookings are significantly lower than that. I can't see Celebrity being very happy with the results so far.

Edited April 8, 2021 by Fouremco

[CruiserRob]

If the price increases that have been reported are accurate, I believe that they are pleased.  If bookings were lower than projections, prices would be decreasing.

[HskrCrsr]

42 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

I believe that the 50% booking target for being profitable is based on the full capacity of the ship, not the modified capacity for the St. Maarten cruises. As Celebrity has already reduce potential capacity to the 40-60% range of full capacity by excluding OV and inside cabins, they'd have to be running close to 100% booking of these available cabins. RICCruiser's show that the bookings are significantly lower than that. I can't see Celebrity being very happy with the results so far.

Ah, yes, I failed to account for those that were excluded. I stand corrected on the profitability portion. I suspect Celebrity is please to have people pay to be on what are functionally test cruises, though.

[Denny01]

I track what SRs are booked and available on my various cruises, yes I’m a sick datafreek and here is what is booked on my Apex Nov 20th 2021 Thanksgiving cruise just to compare:

 

- All Suites - 101 Booked out of 182 - 55% Booked

- Aqua - 101 Booked out of  126 - 79% Booked

- Concierge - 198 Booked out of 276 - 72% Booked

- Veranda - 511 Booked out of 618 - 82% Booked

- Oceanview - 78 Booked out of 140 - 44% Booked

- Inside -  89 Booked out of 131 - 68% Booked

 

Total Bookings -  1078 Booked out of 1473 - 73% Booked

Edited April 8, 2021 by Denny01

[HS2BS]

Counts may be slightly off, did not list Cs - 8 cabins & Rs - 8 cabins, Fv - 12 cabins, Ph - 2

 

On the 6/5/21 cruise, like you did, there are 631 total cabins and 306 are booked. 49%

 

Hal
 

[Host Jazzbeau]

The statement about the level at which ships become profitable is probably based on normal operations with all ships taking a share of central operations overhead.  So there is no way these limited cruises can be profitable in the normal sense.  OTOH these ships have operating costs whether they cruise or not – subtract those 'sunk costs' and the numbers above might be cover the marginal costs.  And more importantly, these sailings keep the brand alive – that is 'priceless.'

[39august]

I am quite sure that were b2b's allowed, the bookings would be quite a bit higher. We considered going before we found this was not to be allowed.

[PTC DAWG]

I’m looking hard at the July 10th cruise...

[PTC DAWG]

1 hour ago, CruiserRob said:

If the price increases that have been reported are accurate, I believe that they are pleased.  If bookings were lower than projections, prices would be decreasing.

The prices don’t seem out of line at all to me, but I never sail inside or OV...that’s probably the shocker to those that do money wise..that said, airfare is about double...

Edited April 8, 2021 by PTC DAWG

[Fouremco]

1 hour ago, 39august said:

I am quite sure that were b2b's allowed, the bookings would be quite a bit higher. We considered going before we found this was not to be allowed.

That certainly is one factor. I don't know how it compares to the lack of 100% vaccinated passengers and crew, or the lack of information on what will happen should the be a case or cases of COVID-19 aboard, but the ban on b2b has certainly discouraged a good number of potential passengers.

[wrk2cruise]

I think they should be pretty happy being able to sell 25% of the full capacity of the ship without providing any details on how they will maintain safety onboard or what will happen if 1 or more people test positive.   I think the pricing is about double what I would normally pay for a late summer Caribbean cruise on a M class ship plus the additional cost of airfare and travel inconvenience made it a non starter for me.  I'm a loyal Celebrity cruiser but I can't just blindly trust them to do what's right for me.  I need some details which I'm afraid they may never reveal.

[Baron Barracuda]

2 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

The statement about the level at which ships become profitable is probably based on normal operations with all ships taking a share of central operations overhead.  So there is no way these limited cruises can be profitable in the normal sense.  OTOH these ships have operating costs whether they cruise or not – subtract those 'sunk costs' and the numbers above might be cover the marginal costs.  And more importantly, these sailings keep the brand alive – that is 'priceless.'

 

On the 1q '20 conference call with analysts Jason Liberty (RCG CFO) estimated that break-even EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciaton & amortizaton) for newer ships required 30% load factor and for older ones 50%.   This is just to cover costs of operating the ship so excludes impact of corporate overhead.

 

 

[dgraham]

Their costs may be lower, as fewer staff would be needed fo accommate fewer cruises in the cabins and the dining rooms.

[KWW88]

5 hours ago, RICCruisers said:

Since I have a bit of time on my hands, I checked the numbers of cabins available on two of the cruises leaving St Marteen.  My question is - Is X happy or disappointed with current bookings given how much has been made about people really wanting to get back on the water?  Here are the numbers (I only checked Sky Suites in these numbers):

 

July 3rd - Aruba, Curacao, Barbados

- Sky Suites - 21 Booked out of 32 - 66% Booked

- Aqua - 56 Booked out of 107 - 52% Booked

- Concierge - 72 Booked out of 158 - 46% Booked

- Veranda - 145 Booked out of 296 - 49% Booked

- Total Bookings - 294 Booked out of 593 - 50% Booked

 

July 10th - BVI, St Lucia, Barbados

- Sky Suites - 21 Booked out of 32 - 66% Booked

- Aqua - 58 Booked out of 107 - 54% Booked

- Concierge - 49 Booked out of 158 - 31% Booked

- Veranda - 146 Booked out of 296 - 49% Booked

- Total Bookings -  274 Booked out of 593 - 46% Booked

 

The % booked for the entire ship does not include OV and Inside since those cabins are not available.  Your thoughts are appreciated.

Yes

[grandgeezer]

I don’t know how they could possibly be happy with the bookings. If they read C.C., for the last year there have been tons of comments stating they are ready, willing, and able, any place anytime.

If the cruise was leaving from Florida, there would be a possibility of residents signing up, last minute, but it’s not. There is air availability, and maybe hotels that have to be taken in consideration. The first cruise leaves in two months. I’m surprised that they have held the pricing where it is, but that’s why they are paid the big bucks. It would be a shame to let arrogance keep them from mitigating some of the cost.

[GonzoWCS]

5 hours ago, RICCruisers said:

Since I have a bit of time on my hands, I checked the numbers of cabins available on two of the cruises leaving St Marteen.  My question is - Is X happy or disappointed with current bookings given how much has been made about people really wanting to get back on the water?  Here are the numbers (I only checked Sky Suites in these numbers):

 

July 3rd - Aruba, Curacao, Barbados

- Sky Suites - 21 Booked out of 32 - 66% Booked

- Aqua - 56 Booked out of 107 - 52% Booked

- Concierge - 72 Booked out of 158 - 46% Booked

- Veranda - 145 Booked out of 296 - 49% Booked

- Total Bookings - 294 Booked out of 593 - 50% Booked

 

July 10th - BVI, St Lucia, Barbados

- Sky Suites - 21 Booked out of 32 - 66% Booked

- Aqua - 58 Booked out of 107 - 54% Booked

- Concierge - 49 Booked out of 158 - 31% Booked

- Veranda - 146 Booked out of 296 - 49% Booked

- Total Bookings -  274 Booked out of 593 - 46% Booked

 

The % booked for the entire ship does not include OV and Inside since those cabins are not available.  Your thoughts are appreciated.

Are these numbers based on an "expected" 100% full ship?

[RICCruisers]

1 hour ago, GonzoWCS said:

Are these numbers based on an "expected" 100% full ship?

The numbers are based on the total number of available cabins for the cruise.  They do not include the 244 OV or the 212 Inside Cabins since those are not for sale on these cruises.  There are 2 Penthouse, 8 Royal and 8 Celebrity Suites not included in my numbers.  

 

So yes, it is based on what would be considered a100% Full Ship of the cabins available.  I believe Baron Barracuda's Load Factors of 30% and 50% for break even numbers are based on an actual Full Ship of just under 1,100 cabins, not the 593 that I am calling a Full Ship. 

[sofietucker]

We're jumping on a June cruise, even though we prefer longer ones and not the Caribbean in summer, to simply get out there! Regardless of whether X is happy, WE'RE happy, lol.

[Seany527]

I would think they are happy. At least for the first sailing, prices have increased in all categories since they were originally released 2 weeks ago.

I am kinda surprised tho that there remains some aft view balconies still available. 

[rjrpar]

14 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

The statement about the level at which ships become profitable is probably based on normal operations with all ships taking a share of central operations overhead.  So there is no way these limited cruises can be profitable in the normal sense.  OTOH these ships have operating costs whether they cruise or not – subtract those 'sunk costs' and the numbers above might be cover the marginal costs.  And more importantly, these sailings keep the brand alive – that is 'priceless.'

Agree, I’m sure they cover variable costs of these cruises.  

[GonzoWCS]

8 hours ago, RICCruisers said:

The numbers are based on the total number of available cabins for the cruise.  They do not include the 244 OV or the 212 Inside Cabins since those are not for sale on these cruises.  There are 2 Penthouse, 8 Royal and 8 Celebrity Suites not included in my numbers.  

 

So yes, it is based on what would be considered a100% Full Ship of the cabins available.  I believe Baron Barracuda's Load Factors of 30% and 50% for break even numbers are based on an actual Full Ship of just under 1,100 cabins, not the 593 that I am calling a Full Ship. 

Are you and Engineer, or an Accountant?  😉 🍺

[HS2BS]

All of these booking( we are booked on the 6/5 cruise) numbers are a plus for Celebrity, but imagine if the early cruises get cancelled because all of the ports that are planned have high Covid-19 numbers right now and it continues. This week in Curaçao the COVID-19 numbers have been extremely high(4/7-212, 4/6-177, 4/4-258, 4/3-465, even St. Maarten is not much better. We’re in the reconsideration mode, but will wait and see.

 

Hal

[wrk2cruise]

If you were to reconsider and cancel now is your only option CwC FCC or was there some other considerations made for these early sailings.  You have made final payment already since June 5 is less than 90 days away correct.  Just curious.