The vaccination olympics

[MicCanberra]

I am confident that Australia will get the jabs into peoples  arms without supply issues now, however I am not so confident about a universal vaccine that will work consistently. I can see the vaccine booster shots getting modified each year to cover for the latest variants, much like the flu jab does at present.

[lyndarra]

Being vaccinated may give us a head start over new variants but it's not guaranteed. A new variant, Mu, is now on the scene which could be a cause for concern. Read up on it here.

Mu: everything you need to know about the new coronavirus variant of interest (theconversation.com)

Extract.

"In early August, Reuters reported that seven fully vaccinated residents of a nursing home in Belgium had died from an outbreak of mu. However, these are limited snapshots of the variant’s behaviour." 

[Tikibird]

12 hours ago, frantic36 said:

 

In October, November and December we are supposed to be getting 10 million Moderna and from October we are getting 2 million doses of Pfizer a week. So we should have enough to resupply the UK as we hopefully will have the majority of people vaccinated by that time.

 Population of Australia over 12 is around 21,800,000.  So this means a total of 43.600,000 doses are required if the entire population is vaxxed.   To date 20,329,483 doses have been jabbed leaving a requirement of 23,270,517 doses for 100% over 12 fully jabbed or 18.616,413 doses to reach 80% fully jabbed and hopefully open borders.

[ilikeanswers]

3 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

I am not so confident about a universal vaccine that will work consistently. I can see the vaccine booster shots getting modified each year to cover for the latest variants, much like the flu jab does at present.

 

The three in trials do seem promising, they fight off SARS-CoV-2, it's variants, SARS-CoV-1 and a number of bat coronaviruses that haven't jumped to humans (wouldn't it be good if we could vaccinate the bats😂) if nothing else they seem to be strong proof of concept. The flu is tricky because it is such a fast evolving virus but with coronaviruses being so much slower it makes a universal vaccine a lot more feasible. Everyone said it would be impossible to get the vaccines we have now so quickly. It does show we have come a long way🤗. 

[lyndarra]

14 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

 Everyone said it would be impossible to get the vaccines we have now so quickly. It does show we have come a long way🤗. 

It's amazing what can be achieved so quickly when a lot of money is thrown at it.

[ilikeanswers]

12 minutes ago, lyndarra said:

It's amazing what can be achieved so quickly when a lot of money is thrown at it.

 

Yes that is true, I remember reading the story of the Ebola vaccine and when it came down to it was because funding was cut that it took 20 more years to finish development 😕. Unfortunately it does take an outbreak to create the urgency for investors to give money to vaccines🤑. 

[onlyslightlymad]

20 cases in NZ today.   One death, sadly.  Takes our death total total to 27.

[OzKiwiJJ]

35 minutes ago, onlyslightlymad said:

20 cases in NZ today.   One death, sadly.  Takes our death total total to 27.

I hope the number of cases keep on dropping. 

[onlyslightlymad]

29 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

I hope the number of cases keep on dropping. 

Me too, but I also know it only takes one idiot for the numbers to start rising again.

[NSWP]

18 hours ago, onlyslightlymad said:

Me too, but I also know it only takes one idiot for the numbers to start rising again.

We have plenty of covidiots over here, we can send a few over to you.  How would you like to have 1500 new cases a day and rising.

Edited September 4, 2021 by NSWP

[gogo65]

Interesting stats, comparing NSW delta outbreak to Victoria delta outbreaks

Edited September 5, 2021 by gogo65
Incorrect graph

[pully8]

Lets hope the vaccine rollout improves and boosters are also ready for part of that.

AZ is being trialled as a booster/3rd shot there is so much supply apparently.

Watching the daily walk in Paris on you tube, beautiful scenery and plenty of people out and about. eating in the cafes some masked some not.

Large vaccination centres abound including one next to the Lourve. Sad situation in Tahiti however lots of cases, health system struggling.

Fully vaccinated rate about 38%. 

High levels of diabetes and obesity increasing vulnerability probably the same elsewhere.

Meanwhile fully vaccinated  here we remain in a holding pattern.

Hope the children will be vaccinated too. 

[By The Bay]

1 hour ago, gogo65 said:

Interesting stats, comparing NSW delta outbreak to Victoria delta outbreaks

It proves that the Delta is more infectious than Alpha.😔

[onlyslightlymad]

15 minutes ago, pully8 said:

Lets hope the vaccine rollout improves and boosters are also ready for part of that.

AZ is being trialled as a booster/3rd shot there is so much supply apparently.

Watching the daily walk in Paris on you tube, beautiful scenery and plenty of people out and about. eating in the cafes some masked some not.

Large vaccination centres abound including one next to the Lourve. Sad situation in Tahiti however lots of cases, health system struggling.

Fully vaccinated rate about 38%. 

High levels of diabetes and obesity increasing vulnerability probably the same elsewhere.

Meanwhile fully vaccinated  here we remain in a holding pattern.

Hope the children will be vaccinated too. 

I listened to an interesting statistical analysis of risk factors.  It seems that obesity is not as big a risk factor as made out in some media outlets.  While obesity does increase risk in some groups, age is by far the biggest risk factor.  In fact, if one looks at the interaction between age and obesity, the older one gets the less difference obesity makes.

[gogo65]

2 hours ago, By The Bay said:

It proves that the Delta is more infectious than Alpha.😔

And also the that Melbourne is on a similar trajectory as NSW, even with the quick and stricter lockdown😔

[By The Bay]

3 minutes ago, gogo65 said:

And also the that Melbourne is on a similar trajectory as NSW, even with the quick and stricter lockdown😔

So true.🤬

[OzKiwiJJ]

3 hours ago, gogo65 said:

And also the that Melbourne is on a similar trajectory as NSW, even with the quick and stricter lockdown😔

Apparently Melbourne has been getting similar problems as Sydney had with some ethnic groups and people not getting tested quickly enough.

[MicCanberra]

We too here in the ACT are having issues with people not getting tested quick enough. Questioning of covid positive people has found that on average they have had some symptoms for 2 days prior to testing.

This is not good  enough, especially  as some still go out and about in the community.

[OzKiwiJJ]

I can understand waiting a few hours before deciding to get tested but not two days. That's just crazy. A few hours gives time to determine it's not just a temporary thing ie I sometimes wake up with a scratchy throat, or a headache, but they go away once I've had breakfast and a couple of large mugs of tea. So I'd be silly to race off to get tested first thing. But if those symptoms were still there after lunch I'd be heading for a testing place.

[Docker123]

9 hours ago, gogo65 said:

Interesting stats, comparing NSW delta outbreak to Victoria delta outbreaks

Taking a graph from a portrait orientation on a phone can provide a very misleading impression.  The original presentation in the landscape orientation provided a very different understanding.

 

then we look at the lines and what they represent.

 

The RED Victorian line is for last year’s major outbreak, not this years.

 

The short purple line is the July 2021 outbreak in Victoria. The Pink line the current.

 

Blue line is current NSW.

[gogo65]

13 minutes ago, Docker123 said:

Taking a graph from a portrait orientation on a phone can provide a very misleading impression.  The original presentation in the landscape orientation provided a very different understanding.

 

then we look at the lines and what they represent.

 

The RED Victorian line is for last year’s major outbreak, not this years.

 

The short purple line is the July 2021 outbreak in Victoria. The Pink line the current.

 

Blue line is current NSW.

Docker,

I've retaken the screen shot in landscape (I was on my phone the first time I was reading this). I still believe that Melbourne is on a similar trajectory (it is the purple line i.e. from august 4th), Victoria still has time to flatten the curve before it gets to the ridiculous rates we are seeing in NSW, but it is a very similar trajectory in fact it is currently going to reach 2000 cases before NSW (around day 32/33 compared to day 38/39 in NSW).

It’s really just an observation, and as I work in the system, an interesting one for me. 
 

[Docker123]

36 minutes ago, gogo65 said:

Docker,

I've retaken the screen shot in landscape (I was on my phone the first time I was reading this). I still believe that Melbourne is on a similar trajectory (it is the purple line i.e. from august 4th), Victoria still has time to flatten the curve before it gets to the ridiculous rates we are seeing in NSW, but it is a very similar trajectory in fact it is currently going to reach 2000 cases before NSW (around day 32/33 compared to day 38/39 in NSW).

It’s really just an observation, and as I work in the system, an interesting one for me. 
 

Sorry, I have spent too many years working with data presentation and interpretation. Taking it back to landscape you can see how it stretches out the horizontal (correctly).
 

I think the line that is important is the pink one. This is where they say current outbreak is actually a continuation of the July outbreak. The purple on seems to overestimate the rate of increase.

[ilikeanswers]

4 hours ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

I can understand waiting a few hours before deciding to get tested but not two days. That's just crazy. A few hours gives time to determine it's not just a temporary thing ie I sometimes wake up with a scratchy throat, or a headache, but they go away once I've had breakfast and a couple of large mugs of tea. So I'd be silly to race off to get tested first thing. But if those symptoms were still there after lunch I'd be heading for a testing place.

 

To be fair we don't all have the same illness experiences, personally I can understand why people might wait. I've had plenty of 24hr illnesses that disappear after a good night sleep. The next day I sometimes might still feel a little crook but if symptoms have decreased from yesterday than I know next day it will clear up. Myself I do wait at least a day before I get tested. 

[onlyslightlymad]

Positive news again.  We had 20 cases yesterday.  Vaccination rates are up - NZ on 25% now, Aus on 30% (well done).  We have an announcement today about whether areas outside of Auckland are moving down to level 2.  I don't think the govt have much choice, the people are getting restless.  They are talking about a new Level 2+.  It's going to be a long press conference.  

 

[MicCanberra]

Not sure of the dates for those stats, but as of 4 September,  Australia  is at 37% fully vaxed.