What are the chances Carnival or any cruise line eliminates Vaccine mandates?

[ninjacat123]

1 hour ago, Lane Hog said:

 

Don't mistake full ships as profitable... if you're filling up on $40-60 per day rates, I can't imagine they're revenue positive or even covering costs.  I'd expect daily rates to be back up to $75-100 before I'd say revenue was back where they want it.

 

True that the number of rapid testing locations has gone down, but I'm pretty certain it's still free for those who answer the questionnaire appropriately e.g. they're are afraid they've been in close contact. 

I suspect the demand for testing is down mainly because so many people got hit with Omicron that they no longer are as afraid or find a need to keep testing at every sniffle or cough.  Plus all those nifty free at-home tests finally started showing up....

From what I've been told by a CVS technician is that it will require a vote by the govt to subsidize the free covid testing.  If the vote doesn't go through then we all get to add a chunk of money to our cruising costs.

[Hoosierpop]

16 minutes ago, tree.critter said:

Carnival just released that it had the highest booking rate ever for the last week. Doesn’t look like they are having any problems filling the ships with vaccinated guests. It may be a long wait for them to change protocols.

 

That may change if they ever require boosters to be considered vaccinated. Especially if it requires multiple boosters. I don’t know a lot of people who aren’t vaccinated. I know a ton who aren’t boosted and never will be (including me). Will be interesting to see what happens if the hospitalization rates stay low.

[Hoosierpop]

6 minutes ago, ninjacat123 said:

From what I've been told by a CVS technician is that it will require a vote by the govt to subsidize the free covid testing.  If the vote doesn't go through then we all get to add a chunk of money to our cruising costs.

Having to pay a high cost for travel testing could affect things even more than keeping vaccine mandates. 

[OfcSupport]

On 3/20/2022 at 12:58 PM, jetsfan58 said:

Some of us that have family members with underlying conditions have never had the choice of getting vaccinated and boosted. Its become a way of life for that population. I applaud Carnival for continuing to require the testing prior to Cruising. Hopefully they will eventually be in a position to move away from this mandate. Now is not he time with the new strains appearing everyday week/month.            

I agree with you 100%. My husband and I are both fully vaccinated and boosted. We got off a RC ship a week ago Sunday and Monday my husband started with symptoms. I tested positive a few days later. Fortunately, we only bad cold symptoms. I know there were others on our sailing that tested positive after the cruise. No one is tracking people after they leave the ship. Covid is still with us.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, Lane Hog said:

 

Don't mistake full ships as profitable... if you're filling up on $40-60 per day rates, I can't imagine they're revenue positive or even covering costs.  I'd expect daily rates to be back up to $75-100 before I'd say revenue was back where they want it.

 

 

Don't mistake a few cheap cabins per cruise as typical of all cabins for a cruise. Carnival has been sailing cash flow positive for months. Some cabins may be discounted, but onboard spend is up, up, up.

[cruisingguy007]

20 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Don't mistake a few cheap cabins per cruise as typical of all cabins for a cruise. Carnival has been sailing cash flow positive for months. Some cabins may be discounted, but onboard spend is up, up, up.

 

Indeed! My cruise is not cheap, a good value? Absolutely. Cheap? Absolutely not! $600 in auto grats is not cheap, and I haven't even stepped foot onboard yet. That's on top of racks for the cruise and I aint even done yet. Cheap my arse! Lol. 

[Lane Hog]

"Cash flow positive" is simply saying that operating revenues exceeded operating expenses for that month or quarter.  It's finance's way of saying "we're no longer bleeding cash".  It doesn't come close to indicating that they're profitable or generating enough cash to start paying down the debt accumulated during the 2020/2021 shutdowns and resuming capex spending (e.g. new ships). 

 

[logan25]

11 hours ago, Hoosierpop said:

That may change if they ever require boosters to be considered vaccinated. Especially if it requires multiple boosters. I don’t know a lot of people who aren’t vaccinated. I know a ton who aren’t boosted and never will be (including me). Will be interesting to see what happens if the hospitalization rates stay low.

Well, protocols are evolving.

 

https://cruisefever.net/carnival-cruise-line-updates-cruise-ship-health-protocols/

[Thenagers]

13 hours ago, Lane Hog said:

 

Don't mistake full ships as profitable... if you're filling up on $40-60 per day rates, I can't imagine they're revenue positive or even covering costs.  I'd expect daily rates to be back up to $75-100 before I'd say revenue was back where they want it.

 

True that the number of rapid testing locations has gone down, but I'm pretty certain it's still free for those who answer the questionnaire appropriately e.g. they're are afraid they've been in close contact. 

I suspect the demand for testing is down mainly because so many people got hit with Omicron that they no longer are as afraid or find a need to keep testing at every sniffle or cough.  Plus all those nifty free at-home tests finally started showing up....

They are packing the ships with gamblers.  I personally have had all kind of "free offers"  and I have not sailed since 2019.  If I lived closer and had the time I would be jumping on a ship every weekend.  There was no limit to how many I could book and I am only a $10-15 per hand player and have only cruised Carnival 4 times.  Casino profits are probably up this quarter.  I also think they went after the gamblers so hard because families were limited by the exemptions.  

[1kaper]

12 hours ago, ninjacat123 said:

From what I've been told by a CVS technician is that it will require a vote by the govt to subsidize the free covid testing.  If the vote doesn't go through then we all get to add a chunk of money to our cruising costs.

 

There are far more options and far cheaper options than there was when we travelled in September.  

Online proctored antigen testing is fairly cheap now.  

Then again, I was travelling from Canada in an area where an antigen test was $79 and a return PCR in the US could be $200 or more. 

Now I can get a Walmart antigen test for $20 or two for $79 online proctored ones. 

[Hoosierpop]

1 hour ago, 1kaper said:

 

There are far more options and far cheaper options than there was when we travelled in September. . 

Yes, they aren’t expensive now. And maybe they will remain that way. But companies will look to maximize revenue. If testing gets to a point where it’s a significant percentage is the travel costs, it could influence peoples choices.

[1kaper]

Just now, Hoosierpop said:

Yes, they aren’t expensive now. And maybe they will remain that way. But companies will look to maximize revenue. If testing gets to a point where it’s a significant percentage is the travel costs, it could influence peoples choices.

I total understand the influence on people's choices when travelling.  Like I said, any trip to the US for us could involve around $400 extra in travel testing costs. 

 

In Canada it has been a part of travel since the beginning and was never free for travel anywhere.  The prices have only gone down as more options opened up.  I doubt they will increase significantly. 

Plus we have already seen Carnival offer $10 testing on shorter cruises, likely for the very reason that the cost of testing for a short trip was influencing people's choices.  

[Hoosierpop]

3 minutes ago, 1kaper said:

I total understand the influence on people's choices when travelling.  Like I said, any trip to the US for us could involve around $400 extra in travel testing costs. 

 

In Canada it has been a part of travel since the beginning and was never free for travel anywhere.  The prices have only gone down as more options opened up.  I doubt they will increase significantly. 

Plus we have already seen Carnival offer $10 testing on shorter cruises, likely for the very reason that the cost of testing for a short trip was influencing people's choices.  

Yes, it is all relative to peoples options and price tolerance. I’m guessing that if testing gets expensive to the point it affects bookings, carnival would offer tests themselves.

 

It’ll be interesting to see if any cruise line eventually removes the requirements and let’s passengers decide what they should do.

 

Personally, if things stay like they are (not requiring boosters and reasonable testing costs), I’ll keep cruising. Especially with the deals out there now.

[dltvermont]

I dont think it will go away any time soon. The mandate isnt hurting their business so why remove it. If people refused to sail as long as there were any mandates in place, they would be gone in a heartbeat.

 

We are vaxxed so I dont really care either way. My feeling though is that if someone (young child) isnt eligible to be vaxxed, then that shouldnt be held against them and should be able to leave the ship without restriction. I know this has to do with port rules as well.

[SRQbeachgirl]

On 4/5/2022 at 12:04 AM, Hoosierpop said:

Having to pay a high cost for travel testing could affect things even more than keeping vaccine mandates. 

 

I could easily see the end of free testing being the end of the testing mandates. Cruise lines and customers are going along with testing because it's not costing anything, but once people have to pay a not-so-insignificant amount the screaming will ensue.

[tallnthensome]

Its the testing and the nerves and hassle that go along with it that is bothersome and troublesome to many. I don't see vaccine mandates going away anytime soon but enough of the pre-cruise testing hassle. Nowhere else is this required anymore. People getting Norovrirus aboard is a bigger possible health Hazzard now. 

[Joe817]

3 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

Its the testing and the nerves and hassle that go along with it that is bothersome and troublesome to many. I don't see vaccine mandates going away anytime soon but enough of the pre-cruise testing hassle. Nowhere else is this required anymore. People getting Norovrirus aboard is a bigger possible health Hazzard now. 

^^^^^This. I agree 100%. 

[Joebucks]

47 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

Its the testing and the nerves and hassle that go along with it that is bothersome and troublesome to many. I don't see vaccine mandates going away anytime soon but enough of the pre-cruise testing hassle. Nowhere else is this required anymore. People getting Norovrirus aboard is a bigger possible health Hazzard now. 

 

The vaccine mandates absolutely will go away. It's just a matter of when.

 

It was a smart business move to require them before. It's business suicide to require them forever (especially with boosters)

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

Its the testing and the nerves and hassle that go along with it that is bothersome and troublesome to many. I don't see vaccine mandates going away anytime soon but enough of the pre-cruise testing hassle. Nowhere else is this required anymore. People getting Norovrirus aboard is a bigger possible health Hazzard now. 

I also agree 100%.

[pe4all]

Unfortunately I now doubt the vaccine mandate will be eliminated now that covid cases are rising again in parts of the country.

[Hoosierpop]

29 minutes ago, pe4all said:

Unfortunately I now doubt the vaccine mandate will be eliminated now that covid cases are rising again in parts of the country.

At this point, this isn’t about science for the cruise lines. It’s about bookings. And since there are enough people with the vaccine to fill ships, they don’t have incentive to change anything. What could cause a change? Redefining fully vaccinated to include multiple boosters. If cruise lines start requiring that, I could see it affecting bookings.

 

As for testing, I could see an increase to testing costs that becomes a meaningful percentage of the cruise cost affecting bookings.