Colorado Buffalo Posted May 17, 2022 #1 Share Posted May 17, 2022 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ May 24th -29th especially looks like problems for Western Caribbean itineraries, however if this tracks further east the messier things get. What would happen to sailings in theses areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare ReneeFLL Posted May 17, 2022 #2 Share Posted May 17, 2022 The itinerary would change to avoid it if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare OCSC Mike Posted May 17, 2022 #3 Share Posted May 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, Colorado Buffalo said: What would happen to sailings in theses areas? They would get re-routed to avoid the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare orville99 Posted May 17, 2022 #4 Share Posted May 17, 2022 38 minutes ago, Colorado Buffalo said: What would happen to sailings in theses areas? Liquid sunshine. You'd get wet, but your cruise would likely not be affected otherwise. These rain events happen all year long in the Caribbean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare island lady Posted May 17, 2022 #5 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Safer to be on a large ship that can move your living quarters away from the storm...then being a sitting duck at home in front of a hurricane coming my way. 😉 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smplybcause Posted May 17, 2022 #6 Share Posted May 17, 2022 It's called hurricane season. Nothing new. I've only ever seen cruises get canceled if the home ports are closed - and that's only happened once in recent times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Buffalo Posted May 17, 2022 Author #7 Share Posted May 17, 2022 I'm thinking the eastern Caribbean could be a busy place in that timespan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeW Posted May 17, 2022 #8 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Models are designed to mimic behaviors that the designers want. Using them for actual predictions is risky, but people forget quickly when they are wrong. The hurricane models are designed to predict tracks of an active storm a few days ahead. Not very good at predicting if a storm will form, especially more than a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare OCSC Mike Posted May 17, 2022 #9 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 minute ago, LeeW said: Models are designed to mimic behaviors that the designers want. Using them for actual predictions is risky, but people forget quickly when they are wrong. The hurricane models are designed to predict tracks of an active storm a few days ahead. Not very good at predicting if a storm will form, especially more than a week away. The models don't do a good job predicting thunderstorms here within 24 hours, lol, let alone bigger storms a week away. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leaveitallbehind Posted May 17, 2022 #10 Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, smplybcause said: It's called hurricane season. Nothing new. I've only ever seen cruises get canceled if the home ports are closed - and that's only happened once in recent times. Actually the hurricane season is June 1- November 30, so just a bit early for that. 🙂 But your point is of course correct. If at sea, the ships will just adjust their itinerary as mentioned and avoid the storms as much as possible. This, however, just looks like a rain event - not likely there will be any changes to itineraries. Edited May 17, 2022 by leaveitallbehind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare twangster Posted May 17, 2022 #11 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare island lady Posted May 17, 2022 #12 Share Posted May 17, 2022 We are celebrating our 26th anniversary out in the Carib on June 1st on Harmony....official start of hurricane season...but our "local storm" is quite mild between us. 🥰 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted May 17, 2022 #13 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Lol my 4th leg on grandeur starts tomorrow and already people are worried about rain in ports and looking. 3 legs of perfect sunshine and now the 4th people say might have some rain. I hope it misses us for their sakes. People have looked forward to this for a while. We will know soon as the forecast firms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 17, 2022 #14 Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) Still way too early to be projecting models into forecasts, especially at this point in the calendar. Monitor this thread. There's been 2 posts in the last 12 hours. If there was something to this (at this point in time) there'd be a ton of discussion https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56704-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-6525351 Edited May 17, 2022 by smokeybandit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtremegk Posted May 17, 2022 #15 Share Posted May 17, 2022 A 970 mb hurricane (Cat 5) hitting the Gulf coast in May. That'd be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blauelini Posted May 17, 2022 #16 Share Posted May 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, xtremegk said: A 970 mb hurricane (Cat 5) hitting the Gulf coast in May. That'd be something. The GFS model is drunk, ignore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted May 17, 2022 #17 Share Posted May 17, 2022 30 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Still way too early to be projecting models into forecasts, especially at this point in the calendar. Monitor this thread. There's been 2 posts in the last 12 hours. If there was something to this (at this point in time) there'd be a ton of discussion https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56704-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-6525351 Even rain is a disappointment if it's your day in port. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 17, 2022 #18 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 minute ago, firefly333 said: Even rain is a disappointment if it's your day in port. Rain in port means your ship docked in port, so the weather can't be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Oceansaway17 Posted May 17, 2022 #19 Share Posted May 17, 2022 don't worry the RCI weatherman will take good care and help the ship make plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare PTC DAWG Posted May 17, 2022 #20 Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, twangster said: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN Agree, I have no idea what the OP was trying to say. A little rain never hurt anyone. Edited May 17, 2022 by PTC DAWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CruisinNole Posted May 17, 2022 #21 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, leaveitallbehind said: Actually the hurricane season is June 1- November 30, so just a bit early for that. 🙂 But your point is of course correct. If at sea, the ships will just adjust their itinerary as mentioned and avoid the storms as much as possible. This, however, just looks like a rain event - not likely there will be any changes to itineraries. I live in south Florida and our local news meteorologist reported last night that a change to hurricane season may be made to have it begin in May. We've learned to not get too hung up on that June 1st start date. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver2014 Posted May 17, 2022 #22 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Here we go again.......just like every year. Hurricane season gives the weather guys something to talk about. No one else seems to care. Ships find someplace to go. We're sailing on June 5 and I wouldn't give the weather a second thought. Now maybe the end of September might be a different story which is why we don't sail during that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ssb Posted May 17, 2022 #23 Share Posted May 17, 2022 I would rather be on a cruise ship in the rain than at home in the rain .. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare twangster Posted May 17, 2022 #24 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Breaking news - it will rain in Alaska this week and get a bit messy. In other news, rain is also expected elsewhere. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare orville99 Posted May 17, 2022 #25 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, CruisinNole said: I live in south Florida and our local news meteorologist reported last night that a change to hurricane season may be made to have it begin in May. We've learned to not get too hung up on that June 1st start date. What they call it and when they start it is relative. The reality is that there have been Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms in every month of the year. It just gets more frisky between June and December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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