Speculation on Apex

[Fouremco]

2 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

Hang in there. We are booked on Apex for Oct. 22. We will make final payment (this week). Keeping fingers crossed and my glass half full. 😉

I love your optimism!

[TeeRick]

22 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

Although to look on the bright side cruising-wise  (is there a bright side??) if Florida continues at the pace it is, by late October so many people will have gotten sick that the numbers will start dropping due to herd immunity.  Sounds ridiculous, but I actually think there is some logic to it.  Not condoning it, just evaluating it.  The skeptical part of me wonders if that is in the back of the minds of some of the people in Florida making those decisions.  We'll never know.

 

I am booked on Apex the week after Thanksgiving.  I used to have some hope that it could reasonably sail (and by that I mean conditions overall would warrant a reasonably safe cruise with enjoyable conditions).  My hopes are rapidly fading.  The sad part - make that one of the sad parts as this is all sad - is that we will not know until very close to sailing time, after we have made final payment and after most of the chances of lift and shift are gone due to other people shifting to next year already.  If it were up to me I would lift and shift now, but we have already had five cruises cancelled this year (2 we shifted already) and DH is just not ready to call it on this one yet.

FL is a long way off for the herd immunity to slow the infection.  The epidemiologists seem to suggest it needs to be anywhere from 60-70% of the population (the herd).  The herd immunity can come from natural infection or be from acquired immunity (vaccine).  

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

[pumpkin 11]

On 7/5/2020 at 10:59 AM, C-Dragons said:

What really amazes me is all the speculation/projection that X would actually cancel ALL of the reservations currently booked for upcoming cruises and abruptly “change course” regarding Apex.

Would they really want to upset their loyal customers who have kept their reservations not only for the TA but also for her Caribbean season? Do they really want to start another round of refunds/FCC's at this time when they’re still dealing with previously canceled cruises?
Vaccine, or not, Apex is going to sail as planned (my opinion). The only reason X would change anything at this point would be due to circumstances beyond their control, which includes the intervention of foreign governments and/or the CDC.

yeah I agree with this. People are already flying more domestically now even with reduced demand internationally. I doubt celebrity wants to cancel the existing cruises or change/ cancel them much to match these "imaginary guidelines" you people keep pulling out of thin air. 

 

Also Celebrity never keeps ships in Europe because the demand is higher in the Caribbean (just like all lines pretty much do except for Costa, MSC and few others). They're not going to ignore market demand in the Caribbean and leave ship(s) in Europe if it won't be profitable. 

[BEAV]

I don’t mean to harp on Florida, but yesterday I saw this clip on CNBC about airlines are reporting a dip in bookings, along with an uptick in cancellations. 

With the Caribbean being the most obvious place to resume cruise operations 

as far as North America is concerned, are people going to rethink their plans to head to Florida to board a ship? Let alone spend a few days pre/post cruise in an area where restaurants are going back to take-out only? It’s like heading into (not out) of Florida when a hurricane is bearing down. 

 

As If the cruise lines don’t already have enough to work around, now we have the world’s largest cruise ports smack dab in the center of the virus hotspot. 

 

 

[hvbaskey]

An interesting article - cruising resumes in some locations, plans for more to follow (EU / Asia)

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/international-cruise-lines-resuming-cruises-while-americans-wait

[C-Dragons]

3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

FL is a long way off for the herd immunity to slow the infection.  The epidemiologists seem to suggest it needs to be anywhere from 60-70% of the population (the herd).  The herd immunity can come from natural infection or be from acquired immunity (vaccine).  

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

I heard on a news program this morning that Doctors have discovered that many people who showed negative on an antibody test for Covid actually developed T-cell immunity instead, which they said was very encouraging towards the development of herd immunity .

[UnorigionalName]

37 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

I heard on a news program this morning that Doctors have discovered that many people who showed negative on an antibody test for Covid actually developed T-cell immunity instead, which they said was very encouraging towards the development of herd immunity .

 

Not quite. The new data is that some people who are serologically negative (no or low detectable circulating antibodies) have a T-cell response.  There are several options when you hear this data:

 

1) Go find the scientific view:  It seems that there is some cross-reactivity in T-cells from other coronaviridae to SARS-COV-2.  This may explain why some people are asymptomatic, and some people are super symptomatic.  It might depend on the relative mix of coronavirus infections you have had lately.

"Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating “common cold” coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420306103

 

2) The only-read-the-abstract and made a news report about it view: The serologic tests are wrong and all the T-cell responsive people have really had exposure to COVID and there's much more community exposure than expected.

The reason this is easily shown to be wrong is if you go down to read the rest of the paper, you realize their unexposed control samples were collected from 2015-2018, well before any possibility of being exposed to SARS-COV-2. 

 

The real good news from that paper, what the news didn't pick up, is that there is a very good chance that a working vaccine can be developed.  Sure you might have to get it a few times, and it might take a while to figure out which vaccine is the best and the safest, but there is every reason to expect that a vaccine will be developed.

 

edit: There is no reason to believe that any country is on it's way to herd immunity.  I mean, there are reports of some hard hit places in Italy, where serologic tests were 57% positive.  I am not sure they even had herd immunity, since they shut down too.

 

So from that, my observations are that the absolute floor for herd immunity would be at least 57% serologic positivity rate on tests, but it is likely higher (at least closer to the 60-70% commonly touted, but maybe closer to 80-90% if you count asymptomatic spread).  And no where really in the US is anywhere even near that number.

 

If you want to go the herd immunity route, you have to prepare for a lot more people to die.

Edited July 7, 2020 by UnorigionalName

[pumpkin 11]

We won't even need herd immunity because the virus will die out before we get to 90% infection.

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, C-Dragons said:

I heard on a news program this morning that Doctors have discovered that many people who showed negative on an antibody test for Covid actually developed T-cell immunity instead, which they said was very encouraging towards the development of herd immunity .

There are different types of T-cells. Most people think of "killer" T-cells (ie, CTL's or cytotoxic T-Lymphocytes) that help eliminate infections. But there is also a type of helper T-Cell that is elevated and produces support (helpful cytokines)  to help prime and then aid the development of antibodies.  After an infection, the circulating IgG antibodies might wane over time and even become non-detectable.  But the antibody response will be primed and ready, aided by the helper T-cells, to come back if the antigen (virus) is encountered again.  Helper T-cells also aid the immune response of the killer T-cells. So a vaccine to be most successful you would hope to be able to induce antibodies, helper T-cells and CTL's against the virus.  It is highly likely that vaccine clinical trials are looking at all of the above and comparing these to the levels seen in infected patients who recover.

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

Not quite. The new data is that some people who are serologically negative (no or low detectable circulating antibodies) have a T-cell response.  There are several options when you hear this data:

 

1) Go find the scientific view:  It seems that there is some cross-reactivity in T-cells from other coronaviridae to SARS-COV-2.  This may explain why some people are asymptomatic, and some people are super symptomatic.  It might depend on the relative mix of coronavirus infections you have had lately.

"Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating “common cold” coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420306103

 

2) The only-read-the-abstract and made a news report about it view: The serologic tests are wrong and all the T-cell responsive people have really had exposure to COVID and there's much more community exposure than expected.

The reason this is easily shown to be wrong is if you go down to read the rest of the paper, you realize their unexposed control samples were collected from 2015-2018, well before any possibility of being exposed to SARS-COV-2. 

 

The real good news from that paper, what the news didn't pick up, is that there is a very good chance that a working vaccine can be developed.  Sure you might have to get it a few times, and it might take a while to figure out which vaccine is the best and the safest, but there is every reason to expect that a vaccine will be developed.

 

edit: There is no reason to believe that any country is on it's way to herd immunity.  I mean, there are reports of some hard hit places in Italy, where serologic tests were 57% positive.  I am not sure they even had herd immunity, since they shut down too.

 

So from that, my observations are that the absolute floor for herd immunity would be at least 57% serologic positivity rate on tests, but it is likely higher (at least closer to the 60-70% commonly touted, but maybe closer to 80-90% if you count asymptomatic spread).  And no where really in the US is anywhere even near that number.

 

If you want to go the herd immunity route, you have to prepare for a lot more people to die.

The only way we get to herd immunity to control this virus is a combination of:  1) high number of infections with recoveries, and 2) effective acquired immunity (vaccine).  

[TeeRick]

19 hours ago, pumpkin 11 said:

We won't even need herd immunity because the virus will die out before we get to 90% infection.

So pumpkin how does the virus actually die out?  Old age?   No, it is through immunity in the population or perhaps mutation to a less infectious form which still requires immunity.

[pumpkin 11]

52 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

So pumpkin how does the virus actually die out?  Old age?   No, it is through immunity in the population or perhaps mutation to a less infectious form which still requires immunity.

When the virus mutates into different strains it becomes weaker. Also the curve will flatten on its own if we do nothing at all.

Edited July 8, 2020 by pumpkin 11

[excitedofharpenden]

On 7/6/2020 at 4:15 PM, C-Dragons said:

Hang in there. We are booked on Apex for Oct. 22. We will make final payment (this week). Keeping fingers crossed and my glass half full. 😉

Sherry, I wish I could offer you a more positive view, but my money would be on your cruise not going ahead from everything I read and hear. I can't see ships sailing with guests for quite a few months I'm afraid. 

 

Example. All the Azamara ships are now in Glasgow. One will be kept in warm layup and the other two in cold layup.  It can take quite a while to get back from cold layup. The news out there continues to get more depressing. 

 

Phil 

[hcat]

On 7/6/2020 at 10:54 AM, C-Dragons said:

Agreed, and it's really a shame. X has every intention of bringing Apex over from Spain on October 22, with arrival in Florida on Nov. 5th. So it fits in with your timeline.

Before, there was concern about Europe being the problem. Now it's one of our own states. 

Glad we cancelled APEX for Nov 2020 awhile ago, and  we recently  rebooked a short cruise on her for a later date.   So we do not have to speculate or worry about it...but our uncertainty now shifts to January 2021..Connie out of Tampa,

[hvbaskey]

3 hours ago, hcat said:

Glad we cancelled APEX for Nov 2020 awhile ago, and  we recently  rebooked a short cruise on her for a later date.   So we do not have to speculate or worry about it...but our uncertainty now shifts to January 2021..Connie out of Tampa,

 

We had January 4th, 2021 - Connie out of Tampa ... and bailed (too many variables; Florida embarkation, what ports will be open to Cruise Ships, etc.; FP due this Fall).    

 

I wish FP policies could change (ie., closer to sail date) - as deciding 3 months out (which never was an issue) is an issue now.   As we now know, the environment can spin on a dime and change so rapidly.  In my wee opinion, it will be next to impossible for Florida to plank the curve by October 2020 (when FP is due) - it’s usually a 3-4 months process (from trends) once the virus peaks and we definitely didn’t want to lock up any further $ in 2020 and be awarded more FCC 😞

[C-Dragons]

4 hours ago, excitedofharpenden said:

Sherry, I wish I could offer you a more positive view, but my money would be on your cruise not going ahead from everything I read and hear. I can't see ships sailing with guests for quite a few months I'm afraid. 

 

Example. All the Azamara ships are now in Glasgow. One will be kept in warm layup and the other two in cold layup.  It can take quite a while to get back from cold layup. The news out there continues to get more depressing. 

 

Phil 

Thanks, Phil.

From what I've heard and read so far, I continue to be positive, but I'm also a pragmatist.

IMO, X will bring Apex to the U.S. as planned, though circumstances beyond their control may prevent those of us booked on her from sailing to Florida. If our cruise is canceled I'll just apply the credit to our next booked cruise in 2021 and continue to look forward.

I try not to let all the negative noise out there affect me, though it is a challenge. Health wise it's far better to maintain a positive outlook. 🌺🌼🌺

[C-Dragons]

3 hours ago, hcat said:

Glad we cancelled APEX for Nov 2020 awhile ago, and  we recently  rebooked a short cruise on her for a later date.   So we do not have to speculate or worry about it...but our uncertainty now shifts to January 2021..Connie out of Tampa,

Not really worried about Apex, as the outcome is out of our hands. 😊

Our next cruise is not until April, 2021, out of Ft. Lauderdale.

I sincerely hope your cruise sails as planned! 

[pumpkin 11]

21 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

Thanks, Phil.

From what I've heard and read so far, I continue to be positive, but I'm also a pragmatist.

IMO, X will bring Apex to the U.S. as planned, though circumstances beyond their control may prevent those of us booked on her from sailing to Florida. If our cruise is canceled I'll just apply the credit to our next booked cruise in 2021 and continue to look forward.

I try not to let all the negative noise out there affect me, though it is a challenge. Health wise it's far better to maintain a positive outlook. 🌺🌼🌺

yes, I have doubts about the west bound TA actually sailing with passengers but you never know.

[phoenix_dream]

On 7/8/2020 at 9:06 AM, pumpkin 11 said:

When the virus mutates into different strains it becomes weaker. Also the curve will flatten on its own if we do nothing at all.

Actually, I read an article yesterday that they believe the latest mutation of the virus is actually more contagious.  Too soon to prove this so I'm stating it as a possibility rather than a fact.  Yes, eventually the curve would flatten on its own - the only tiny little problem with that is the additional hundreds of thousands of people who would die in the meantime.  I kinda lean on the side of keeping more people alive even if it means we need to be careful a few months longer while we wait for a vaccine.

[pumpkin 11]

CDC metanalysis with masks 14 studies masks outside of a hospital to see if they stopped the spread of a flu virus they found there was no evidence to support that masks even worked. The non scientists leading this like reacting to the stock market and aren't assessing after a period of time. You cannot make thoughtful decisions with this large wave but we can't correct second to second and we end up over correcting rather than making a straight line.

 

I know of front line physicians from Houston and they say they're not COVID 19 patients but they are people who DEFERED care during quarantine (and now). The pubic is now seeing how hospitals work and they're constantly shuffling patients all the time and constantly in motion. I'm unaware of any hospital in Houston that has been overwhelmed. 

 

[CHEZMARYLOU]

25 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

CDC metanalysis with masks 14 studies masks outside of a hospital to see if they stopped the spread of a flu virus they found there was no evidence to support that masks even worked. The non scientists leading this like reacting to the stock market and aren't assessing after a period of time. You cannot make thoughtful decisions with this large wave but we can't correct second to second and we end up over correcting rather than making a straight line.

 

I know of front line physicians from Houston and they say they're not COVID 19 patients but they are people who DEFERED care during quarantine (and now). The pubic is now seeing how hospitals work and they're constantly shuffling patients all the time and constantly in motion. I'm unaware of any hospital in Houston that has been overwhelmed. 

 

???? What are you saying???????????? Maybe I spent too much time at the Martini Bar today to understand your point.

[grandgeezer]

On 7/8/2020 at 7:06 AM, pumpkin 11 said:

When the virus mutates into different strains it becomes weaker. Also the curve will flatten on its own if we do nothing at all.

Make up your mind, if you can, your previous posts said that the curve has already flattened just because deaths have dropped off and that’s the only stat that matters.

24 minutes ago, CHEZMARYLOU said:

???? What are you saying???????????? Maybe I spent too much time at the Martini Bar today to understand your point.

 

[dutchclogs]

On 7/6/2020 at 12:48 PM, york survey said:

I've made my view clear on Apex a number of times and with Europe starting (fingers cross) to get this thing under control I'm still of a view that Europe will start up first.

 

The UK currently does not ban Americans but does require a quarantine. Critical however is the number of local passengers and Southampton has more "drive to" passengers than any other Europe port. Hence I think Apex might do some of the Southampton Silhouette late Summer sailings.

 

 

Apex - Staying in Europe - starts FULL program in Spring 2021 - Does some of Silhouette Fall cruises out of Southampton starting late September

 

Silhouette - Europe 2020 and South America 2021/2021 cancelled - New short Caribbean cruises introduced starting Early 2021

 

Anyone agree!!

 

 

What is your view now that the UK FCO has advised all against cruising ?  

 

 

 

 

 

[york survey]

14 minutes ago, dutchclogs said:

 

Still the same.

 

If there is one thing was know about this whole situation it's the world will be very different in 3 months time. Things may deteriorate further but we could have turned the corner and be looking forward to better times for everyone

 

Time will tell

 

 

[NutsAboutGolf]

Not saying anyone is right or wrong, it's a very "fluid" or ever-changing situation.  The Apex, their newest ship, will be deployed where ever it can maximize profit.  Today's itinerary or "plan" will most likely change.