Liquidity, latest on how long NCL can last...

[pmd98052]

4 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

COVID-19 vaccine progress is amazing.  Three are in stage 3 and others close.

https://covidvax.news/progress/

 

The US Government is funding it all and has already contracted for 100 million doses.

https://fox59.com/news/us-signs-contract-with-pfizer-for-first-100-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses-aims-for-delivery-by-december/

 

 

Yes progress is good but there are some problems.

 

a) Don't know yet if the antibodies stay around long enough to actually help

b) People might need multiple shots (like HPV vaccine)

c) Even with all the doses ordered the first people to receive them will be front line health care staff, those at high risk (specifically >60), and other essential workers. Those "100 million" doses don't magically appear on the first day. Its going to take time to get doses produced and the first batches won't be for the general public. From what I hear its a good 6 months+ before anyone can go get a shot after initial doses are ready.

[ray98]

28 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Ah. Actually no, I was talking about Going Concern, which my company had to file late last year as well. And it created a financial crunch for us on our ability to complete some refinancing as we were immediately downgraded in credit rating and it created unwanted volatility in trading. And a lot of unwanted press, which immediately begins speculation about heading toward Chapter 11.  And as it turns out we resolved our situation, paid off debt, and are enabled to remove the going concern with our next filing. But we can say that until we are blue in the face, it will take a year to heal from it.

 

Ok....I'm confused again.  All accounting assume companies operate on a Going Concern basis.  It is not a bad thing and specifically means there is nothing reported that casts doubt on their ability to meet their financial obligations for the next 12 months.

 

When a company is not a Going Concern is when there is trouble.....

[sfaaa]

It is a standard cautionary Buyer Beware warning. Many companies big and small are a going concern candidate these days. It's obviously not a good sign but not a death sentence either.

Edited July 24, 2020 by sfaaa

[hallux]

2 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

Many companies big and small are agoing concern candidates these days

See my previous post with the SEC/accountant definitions of the terms.  "Going Concern" is a-OK...

[ray98]

28 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

It is a standard cautionary Buyer Beware warning. Many companies big and small are a going concern candidate these days. It's obviously not a good sign but not a death sentence either.

 

It isn't.  The Going Concern accounting principle means no trouble in sight, all expectations is the company will continue to operate and meet its financial obligations for the next 12 months.  When there is a problem you will see it listed by the auditor in filings with a phrase similar to 'substantial doubt over the ability to continue operating as a going concern'.

[CruiseMH]

6 hours ago, ray98 said:

 

Two different things.  Influenza is a family of viruses that are in a constant state of mutation.  SARS-COV-2 is a specific virus in the Coronavirus family that has not yet been proven to mutate.

There are studies and reports that suggest that SARS-COV-2 is already mutating. Not very much and (as usually all viruses) more to the less dangerous side but even very small mutations can make a vaccine useless.

It is more important to let this virus die by not infecting other people.This is very difficult but possible.

If no person infects any other person then the virus will die almost completely.

[4774Papa]

10 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I see a vaccine as a critical hurtle to resuming cruising. However; I suspect an equal threat to the industry, and especially the smallist fish in the big 3 pond (NCL), is the long term damage done to public perception.  Sure there are die-hard fans, like those of us on CC, who will still cruise. However; we represent a very small minority of the potential cruising population.  IMO; NCL will need to pump serious dollars into changing the perception that cruise ships are 'floating petri dishes' if they have any hope of surviving as a stand alone.  I seriously hope I'm wrong. 

NCL did hurt itself with customer service, but if they can hang on until the industry comes back, they will likely recover.

 

What I dislike the most about NCL is that booking without promos usually required waiting until too close to the cruise.  We always book early and NCL with the promo prices bundled makes it noncompetitive.  We have found RCI or Celebrity to be better deals.

[oteixeira]

On 7/23/2020 at 5:18 PM, tallnthensome said:

At this point and considering NCL’s cash position and bleak outlook I guarantee there are few now that think like you..... 125% cruise credit on a cruise that is 50% higher at a later date is no deal and that’s what they have done.  Keep gambling, eventually you’ll get zero return on your free interest loan to them . Bad decision .

And here is your answer on that one:

3) FINAL PAYMENT POLICY FOR 2020 VOYAGES (Updated)
Our new final payment policy is applicable for November and December 2020 voyages and postpones final payment until 60 days prior to embarkation.

This is part of the new update to the Peace of Mind released with the October cancellation this morning.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

And here is your answer on that one:

3) FINAL PAYMENT POLICY FOR 2020 VOYAGES (Updated)
Our new final payment policy is applicable for November and December 2020 voyages and postpones final payment until 60 days prior to embarkation.

This is part of the new update to the Peace of Mind released with the October cancellation this morning.

 

Aren't most November cruises already past the 120 day final payment deadline? So this change really only applies to approximately 5 weeks of sailings (last week of November and all of December). Was there any talk of extending the 60 day policy into 2021? 

[oteixeira]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Aren't most November cruises already past the 120 day final payment deadline? So this change really only applies to approximately 5 weeks of sailings (last week of November and all of December). Was there any talk of extending the 60 day policy into 2021? 

So, you are correct, and if you use a TA you usually have to pay 14 days before the 120 day final payment deadline, so lots of others might have paid in full as well.  This is copied and pasted from the notice sent out, so I can't comment to if there was any "talk" other then to say that they plan to put out info at the end of each month (so if they were to roll this to November no sail, expect something at the end of August).

 

 

[HowardK]

On 7/24/2020 at 11:57 AM, pmd98052 said:

 

 

Yes progress is good but there are some problems.

 

a) Don't know yet if the antibodies stay around long enough to actually help

b) People might need multiple shots (like HPV vaccine)

c) Even with all the doses ordered the first people to receive them will be front line health care staff, those at high risk (specifically >60), and other essential workers. Those "100 million" doses don't magically appear on the first day. Its going to take time to get doses produced and the first batches won't be for the general public. From what I hear its a good 6 months+ before anyone can go get a shot after initial doses are ready.

Your points are excellent-

Even with the flu shot people still get the flu of course.

People might of course as you said need a booster shot, perhaps even a shot every year.

How will they determine who gets the shot first?

I am half tempted to consider signing up for a Phase 3 trial even though there is a 50% chance I would get a placebo- because the amount of time I would need to wait for an actual vaccine could be longer.

[tallnthensome]

5 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Aren't most November cruises already past the 120 day final payment deadline? So this change really only applies to approximately 5 weeks of sailings (last week of November and all of December). Was there any talk of extending the 60 day policy into 2021? 

Yea, this extension to only sailings most likely to be cancelled anyhow for the rest of 2020 makes this less than news worthy and a weak effort again by NCL .....

[Trimone]

According to a federal report, the "Red Zone" states climbed to 21, meaning they reached more than 100 new cases per 100,000 people in one week. According to The New York Times, the "Red Zone" states are Alabama, Arizona, Kansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin.
Who would allow customers from these areas onto ships, cruising is a long way off.

I always believed April/May 2021, now I’m thinking never, well not how we remember it?

The world is changing forever in tourism...

[MoCruiseFan]

On ‎7‎/‎24‎/‎2020 at 11:33 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I see a vaccine as a critical hurtle to resuming cruising. However; I suspect an equal threat to the industry, and especially the smallist fish in the big 3 pond (NCL), is the long term damage done to public perception.  Sure there are die-hard fans, like those of us on CC, who will still cruise. However; we represent a very small minority of the potential cruising population.  IMO; NCL will need to pump serious dollars into changing the perception that cruise ships are 'floating petri dishes' if they have any hope of surviving as a stand alone.  I seriously hope I'm wrong. 

 

 

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying in your post.  Did you by chance mean a critical HURDLE instead of HURTLE?  If so I concur.  If not I really do not understand what it is you are saying.  But I do not think most people have that perception that you speak of.  That is just the ones who would never cruise in the first place and they simply use it as a poor attempt at humor or an excuse not to cruise.

[dexddd]

19 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Aren't most November cruises already past the 120 day final payment deadline? So this change really only applies to approximately 5 weeks of sailings (last week of November and all of December). Was there any talk of extending the 60 day policy into 2021? 

When I saw the other thread thought same thing.

[farmersfight]

3 hours ago, MoCruiseFan said:

Did you by chance mean a critical HURDLE instead of HURTLE? 

 

My $$ is on HURDLE.

[Travelling2Some]

1 hour ago, farmersfight said:

 

My $$ is on HURDLE.

Sorry in advance but can't resist . . . My turtle named Myrtle cannot hurdle due to her tight girdle.  I would make soup out of her but it would probably curdle.  .  . There's just not a whole lot to do here on CC these days (sigh).

[BermudaBound2014]

5 hours ago, MoCruiseFan said:

 

 

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying in your post.  Did you by chance mean a critical HURDLE instead of HURTLE?  If so I concur.  If not I really do not understand what it is you are saying.  But I do not think most people have that perception that you speak of.  That is just the ones who would never cruise in the first place and they simply use it as a poor attempt at humor or an excuse not to cruise.

 

Omgosh, yes, of course I mean HurDle. How embarrassing. I use voice recognition software and didn't catch the error. Could be my midwestern accent, but that thing has a mind of its own. 

 

I hope you are correct about perception overall, but I  do respectfully disagree.  I believe that there has been long term damage to the image of cruising based on Corona. Several articles have been written on the topic. I can speak frm first hand experience; we were planning a family cruise for April of 2021. 19 people. Most have cruised before and enjoyed it. Not one wanted to cruise again. Many due to possibility of being quarantined. It's all very unfortunate. 

[farmersfight]

BermudaBound2014

• 3,000+ Club
• 
• June 2, 2014
•  
• 4,567 posts
• Michigan

 

Hi BermudaBound2014,

If you don't mind me asking, are you a "yooper" or a "troll"?  And, from what city or town? As you can see in my avatar, I'm in Muskegon.

Edited July 30, 2020 by farmersfight

[BermudaBound2014]

10 minutes ago, farmersfight said:

BermudaBound2014

• 3,000+ Club
• 
• June 2, 2014
•  
• 4,567 posts
• Michigan

 

Hi BermudaBound2014,

If you don't mind me asking, are you a "yooper" or a "troll"?  And, from what city or town? As you can see in my avatar, I'm in Muskegon.

Hi there- we are kinda both. Year round home is just outside of Ann Arbor but we also own a cabin on Lake Superior near the Porcupine Mountains. It’s Gods country up there. Ironically, we have a wedding in Muskegon this weekend. Thank heavens it is outdoors and under 100 people, but the dinner reception is cancelled due to Yesterday’s  executive order :(. We also very much enjoy your side of the state, having spent lots of time at silver lake sand dunes when I was younger 🙂

[farmersfight]

8 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Hi there- we are kinda both. Year round home is just outside of Ann Arbor but we also own a cabin on Lake Superior near the Porcupine Mountains. It’s Gods country up there. Ironically, we have a wedding in Muskegon this weekend. Thank heavens it is outdoors and under 100 people, but the dinner reception is cancelled due to Yesterday’s  executive order :(. We also very much enjoy your side of the state, having spent lots of time at silver lake sand dunes when I was younger 🙂

 

Thanks for your reply! Are you a Wolverine fan (Go Blue)? Your cabin up in the UP sounds great. No problem social distancing up there. I drove to Wisconsin once through the UP. All I remember seeing were trees, trees and more trees...no towns, no stop lights. I did get to visit the Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum at Whitefish Point in the UP.

 

Best wishes for your attending the wedding in Muskegon this weekend. As for the reception, it sounds like you got "Whitmered". Yeah, I like it here in western Michigan. In Muskegon, we have the Lake Express (high speed passenger/auto ferry) to/from Milwaukee, WI (2 1/2 hr crossing). Also, there is the historic SS Badger up in Ludington that goes to Manitowoc, WI (4 hr crossing). These two vessels are my only options for cruising this year, lol.

 

Silver Lake is a beautiful area. Have you been on Mac Wood's Dune Rides?

[ColeThornton]

4 minutes ago, farmersfight said:

 

Thanks for your reply! Are you a Wolverine fan (Go Blue)? Your cabin up in the UP sounds great. No problem social distancing up there. I drove to Wisconsin once through the UP. All I remember seeing were trees, trees and more trees...no towns, no stop lights. I did get to visit the Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum at Whitefish Point in the UP.

 

Best wishes for your attending the wedding in Muskegon this weekend. As for the reception, it sounds like you got "Whitmered". Yeah, I like it here in western Michigan. In Muskegon, we have the Lake Express (high speed passenger/auto ferry) to/from Milwaukee, WI (2 1/2 hr crossing). Also, there is the historic SS Badger up in Ludington that goes to Manitowoc, WI (4 hr crossing). These two vessels are my only options for cruising this year, lol.

 

Silver Lake is a beautiful area. Have you been on Mac Wood's Dune Rides?

 

Please don't hijack threads.  Thanks.  🙂

[farmersfight]

13 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

Please don't hijack threads.  Thanks.  🙂

 

Didn't know I was "thread hijacking". No harm intended. I'll mind my CC "p's & q's" from now on.

[npcl]

On 7/24/2020 at 2:34 PM, CruiseMH said:

There are studies and reports that suggest that SARS-COV-2 is already mutating. Not very much and (as usually all viruses) more to the less dangerous side but even very small mutations can make a vaccine useless.

It is more important to let this virus die by not infecting other people.This is very difficult but possible.

If no person infects any other person then the virus will die almost completely.

The mutations seen so far should not effect the vaccines.  The reason why is because the vaccines are generally focused on the protruding spikes.  These spikes are how the virus latches onto and infects human cells.  If the spikes change such that the vaccines will not work they would also change such that the virus would not be able to infect humans in the same way.

 

The most common mutation is one that increases the number of spikes making it more infectious, but also means that the virus is even more visible to the antibodies generated by the vaccine.

[spanishguy1970]

On 7/23/2020 at 4:44 PM, tallnthensome said:

NCL might survive if they drop their final payment date to 30 days. No way will they survive with the amount of cancellations that will continue into next year due to the ridiculous 4 month mandatory final payment date. Even as bad as people will want to go or even plan to go that ridiculous policy will scare 90% of cruisers away. Nobody in their right mind would hand over thousands that far in advance anymore. 

I hate to say it, but in some way  shape or form this is a stop and reset for NCL. Del Rio kept pushing and implementing sales strategies that was isolating some cruisers and with this they will need to find ways to get cruisers back and that includes former loyal customers. IMO.