The Debbie Downers have been right all along

[Hlitner]

Just now, Hlitner said:

In the USA, the numbers are actually trending quite good (with a few small exceptions) with week over week new cases dropping about 11% and the death rate dropping over 16%.  By requiring a combination of both testing and vaccination the cruise lines are minimizing the risk.  That being said, as I previously posted, their weak link is allowing non vaccinated cruisers under 18.  I would be curious to see their plan on how they will handle 1 or more COVID cases among the young folks.  

 

Hank

 

[AncientWanderer]

57 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Perhaps.  But consider that current US regulations mandate that anyone flying to the USA must have a negative Covid test (antigen) within 3 days of their flight.  So, if somebody were to test positive on a cruise from Nassau or St Maarten they would need to quarantine somewhere outside of the USA for about 2 weeks.  I assume that RCI and Celebrity will have some kind of deal with the Bahamas and St Maarten that would allow such a passengers to quarantine in those countries...because they will not be allowed back in the USA.  

 

We have some first hand experience with this testing requirement having spent the winter living in Mexico.  About 10 days ago DW and I got antigen tests in Puerto Vallarta (we were both negative) before we could fly home last Saturday.  We kind of joked about those tests that if we had failed we would have been "Homeless in Vallarta" because our Condo was rented to another couple the day we were scheduled to fly home.  If either of us had tested positive we would have needed to find another place to quarantine for a couple of weeks and also get a physician to handle our care and later write the necessary letter that would allow us to return to the USA.  

 

So consider a family of 4 that takes on of those RCI or Celebrity cruises and even a single member were to test positive.  They would have to handle the cost of staying somewhere outside the USA for at least 2 weeks (and if COVID later spread to another in their family that would add additional days//weeks).  Not only would they have those extra costs (unless they could find an insurance policy to cover it) but the delay in getting home would have a major impact on jobs/school.

 

Hank

 

 

I'm assuming that with the more accurate tests, and with a vaccinated population, there will be few positives/false positives.  There will be some, no doubt, and the risk is there for the traveler, but if I'm vaccinated, and traveling on a vaccinated ship, I like my chances.

 

If someone has really strict parameters as far as date of return home, probably not a good idea to travel in these covid times.

[Hlitner]

3 minutes ago, AncientWanderer said:

 

I'm assuming that with the more accurate tests, and with a vaccinated population, there will be few positives/false positives.  There will be some, no doubt, and the risk is there for the traveler, but if I'm vaccinated, and traveling on a vaccinated ship, I like my chances.

 

If someone has really strict parameters as far as date of return home, probably not a good idea to travel in these covid times.

I agree with you although kids will still be very vulnerable to COVID since they cannot get a vaccine at the current time.  As to travel in COVID times, we have never stopped and have managed over 15 weeks of travel (Florida, South Carolina, and Mexico) since last June.  We viewed traveling during a Pandemic as a challenge which had to be carefully planned in order to minimize our risk.  I guess we can now claim success since neither one of us suffered as much as a sniffle since last March and we recently returned home from Mexico with no untoward effects.  We have since had our first shots (2nd scheduled in a couple of weeks) so we will feel even more confident (and safe) on our future trips.

 

But I do continue to think that folks taking one of Nassau or St Maarten cruises with kids need to be cognizant of the substantial delays (and extra expense) in case any of the kids were to get COVID.

 

Hank

[tosteve1]

As vaccination continues to roll out at a good pace, I would expect to see death rates to drop further than case rates. That’s what I want to see as our vulnerable populations are protected. Deaths and hospitalizations are what matter most.

[KirkNC]

The unanswered question remains....what will a ship do during a cruise if one or more passengers tests positive?  I hope with vaccinated passengers and crew they will isolate those infected and keep on cruising.  Unfortunately in the limited restarts that has not been the case.  I think before these lines set sail they need to fully disclose their policies on this and all other CV protocols.

[SJSULIBRARIAN]

11 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

The unanswered question remains....what will a ship do during a cruise if one or more passengers tests positive?  I hope with vaccinated passengers and crew they will isolate those infected and keep on cruising.  Unfortunately in the limited restarts that has not been the case.  I think before these lines set sail they need to fully disclose their policies on this and all other CV protocols.

 

You state  my biggest concern about the resumption of cruising.

[Mary229]

4 hours ago, SJSULIBRARIAN said:

 

You state  my biggest concern about the resumption of cruising.

This is from the EU current cruise operating guidelines which have been used with excellent results in a real life situation.

 

source https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-cruise-guidance-27-07-2020.pdf

 

5.2 COVID-19 response elements to be considered
Before starting a voyage, cruise ship operators should ensure, with the ports of call along the route, that, if needed, they can make arrangements for passengers and crew members to receive medical treatment and that repatriations and crew changes can be organised.31
In the event that a possible, probable or confirmed case of COVID-19 is identified on board (see ECDC annex for case definitions), the ship should be diverted to the nearest port where testing for SARS-CoV-2 can take place and where local public health authorities can be consulted to further manage the situation including the provision of specialist care, and where necessary, carrying out contact tracing.
The Company should establish procedures to respond to a potential COVID-19 outbreak32 and establish programmes for drills and exercises to prepare for such an outbreak.
It is recommended that the response measures33 should include at least a description of the following:
■ Definition of roles, duties and tasks of the

[rkacruiser]

4 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I think before these lines set sail they need to fully disclose their policies on this and all other CV protocols.

 

We know so little, yet as has been asked on another thread "is there really pent-up demand" for cruises, which I think there is.  People are buying a "pig in a poke" to use an old fashioned phrase without really understanding the potential consequences of what they are doing.  

 

5 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I guess we can now claim success since neither one of us suffered as much as a sniffle since last March and we recently returned home from Mexico with no untoward effects.  We have since had our first shots (2nd scheduled in a couple of weeks) so we will feel even more confident (and safe) on our future trips.

 

I have admired your resilience during these past months.  Your comment about "not a sniffle" since last March reminds me that this past year has been the first in some time when I have not had an upper respiratory issue of some kind.  Have had, and am having other physical concerns, but nothing related to a "sniffle" etc.  Masks and staying within one's bubble seems to work, at least, for me.  

[Mary229]

Here is how a recent Covid case was dealt with on a European cruise.  Briefly the sick were isolated and disembarked to a prearranged medical facility and the cruise continued

 

https://www.cruisehive.com/cruise-ship-covid-outbreak-swiftly-dealt-with/47010

Edited March 20, 2021 by Mary229

[KirkNC]

13 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

Here is how a recent Covid case was dealt with on a European cruise.  Briefly the sick were isolated and disembarked to a prearranged medical facility and the cruise continued

 

https://www.cruisehive.com/cruise-ship-covid-outbreak-swiftly-dealt-with/47010

Good to know.

[cruiserchuck]

That article mentioned that guests onboard were required to take a chartered flight to the ship, and remain in a bubble until arriving back in Germany.  I do not believe the planned upcoming cruises by Celebrity, Crystal and RCI will have a similar bubble.  I would be worried that cruise passengers flying by regular airplanes from all around the US, with no requirement for passengers not on the cruise to have taken a COVID test before the flight, will be exposed to COVID on the airplanes, and could spread it to others onboard the ships.      

[Mary229]

7 minutes ago, cruiserchuck said:

That article mentioned that guests onboard were required to take a chartered flight to the ship, and remain in a bubble until arriving back in Germany.  I do not believe the planned upcoming cruises by Celebrity, Crystal and RCI will have a similar bubble.  I would be worried that cruise passengers flying by regular airplanes from all around the US, with no requirement for passengers not on the cruise to have taken a COVID test before the flight, will be exposed to COVID on the airplanes, and could spread it to others onboard the ships.      

The major difference is that the passengers on the cruises in North America need to be vaccinated and I do believe Bahamas requires a test also.  The German passengers did not have to be vaccinated.   There is always something...........

[cruiserchuck]

Just now, Mary229 said:

The major difference is that the passengers on the cruises in North America need to be vaccinated and I do believe Bahamas requires a test also.  The German passengers did not have to be vaccinated.   There is always something...........

 

Unless Celebrity is only allowing people to drive to charter flights, there will be cruise passengers (including unvaccinated children) packed onto domestic flights with unvaccinated non-cruise passengers.  Since it is being reported that 21 states now have rising COVID infection numbers, I think there are going to be many cases on these cruises.  

 

I read that several fully vaccinated healthcare workers from Hawaii got infected.  They had few or no symptoms, but had to take a test when flying home from Las Vegas.  So being fully vaccinated does not mean no COVID.  I believe they had either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine.  With the J&J vaccine, this presumably could be more of an issue, since its efficacy rate is lower.

 

  

[Mary229]

Just now, cruiserchuck said:

 

Unless Celebrity is only allowing people to drive to charter flights, there will be cruise passengers (including unvaccinated children) packed onto domestic flights with unvaccinated non-cruise passengers.  Since it is being reported that 21 states now have rising COVID infection numbers, I think there are going to be many cases on these cruises.  

 

I read that several fully vaccinated healthcare workers from Hawaii got infected.  They had few or no symptoms, but had to take a test when flying home from Las Vegas.  So being fully vaccinated does not mean no COVID.  I believe they had either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine.  With the J&J vaccine, this presumably could be more of an issue, since its efficacy rate is lower.

 

  

There is all kind of anecdotal “evidence” but it is purely speculation and not verified.   It could be the vaccine is 100% effective for 100000000 years too.   Worrying about what you don’t know will just make you ill.    If you want to wait until every single study has been completed on every single aspect of this disease and protocol that is fine.   I am vaccinated and trust  the fine scientists in the pharmaceutical labs more than I trust may anecdotal evidence from some healthcare worker in Hawaii 

[cruiserchuck]

4 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

There is all kind of anecdotal “evidence” but it is purely speculation and not verified.   It could be the vaccine is 100% effective for 100000000 years too.   Worrying about what you don’t know will just make you ill.    If you want to wait until every single study has been completed on every single aspect of this disease and protocol that is fine.   I am vaccinated and trust  the fine scientists in the pharmaceutical labs more than I trust may anecdotal evidence from some healthcare worker in Hawaii 

 

All reports that I have seen indicate that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are higher effective - about 95% on the original strains, but somewhat lower on some of the newer variants.  However, 95% is not 100%, and the Hawaii healthcare workers are a good example of this.  Their infections presumably were only identified due to Hawaii requiring testing (in lieu of quarantine) for anyone traveling to Hawaii.  

 

If you have anything from the fine scientists in the pharmaceutical labs indicating that the widely reported 95% (or lower) efficacy is really 100% efficacy, I would be very interested in seeing it.  

[Mary229]

12 minutes ago, cruiserchuck said:

 

All reports that I have seen indicate that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are higher effective - about 95% on the original strains, but somewhat lower on some of the newer variants.  However, 95% is not 100%, and the Hawaii healthcare workers are a good example of this.  Their infections presumably were only identified due to Hawaii requiring testing (in lieu of quarantine) for anyone traveling to Hawaii.  

 

If you have anything from the fine scientists in the pharmaceutical labs indicating that the widely reported 95% (or lower) efficacy is really 100% efficacy, I would be very interested in seeing it.  

I was just putting that out there to demonstrate the absurdity of treating every report as true, verified, peer reviewed and calling it science.  Just because a healthcare worker reported it doesn’t make it true nor can you draw conclusions.   Like I said, if you want to wait for the peer reviewed studies to be completed that is your choice but it might be years.  

Edited March 21, 2021 by Mary229

[Hlitner]

2 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

We know so little, yet as has been asked on another thread "is there really pent-up demand" for cruises, which I think there is.  People are buying a "pig in a poke" to use an old fashioned phrase without really understanding the potential consequences of what they are doing.  

 

 

I have admired your resilience during these past months.  Your comment about "not a sniffle" since last March reminds me that this past year has been the first in some time when I have not had an upper respiratory issue of some kind.  Have had, and am having other physical concerns, but nothing related to a "sniffle" etc.  Masks and staying within one's bubble seems to work, at least, for me.  

I worked in the medical world for a part of my life and always understood about the benefits of wearing a good mask (we are talking N95, KN95, etc).  But this was not part of our culture prior to COVID.  Once DW and I started to wear masks (last April) and follow basic social distancing guidelines, we have fared well and neither of us has had even a sniffle.  The normal COVID advice of wearing a mask (although we think it should be a good mask) and frequent washing of hands is good advice anytime but not something most of us are willing to do.  But with COVID and our life on the line (we are both high risk) we have been careful although we did continue to travel and live our lives in a manner we enjoy.  

 

We have had discussions with some friends and family about the fact that we continued to travel during the pandemic.  Was it wise?  Probably not.  But we did it with a lot of caution and common sense.   There is risk everywhere, including just going to the supermarket near home, and we opted to live the kind of life we love and do our best to minimize our personal risk.  If we had given up a year of our lives simply sheltering in place we would have likely been depressed, lonely, and angry that we had sacrificed an entire year of our lives out of fear (we are in our 70s).  I do listen to the advice offered by many of our experts and will admit to often being appalled at some of the advice which seems to be more about agendas rather then real science.  Even today I have an issue with some of the advice we get here in the USA, which is not supported by any science or research.  But, as one who worked in government healthcare I also appreciate that some officials offer advice that they think is for our "own good" rather then being completely honest and expecting the public to use good sense.  

 

There is a horrible truth about COVID and most disease.  You can do everything right and still be unlucky and catch a disease and you can be an idiot and walk free.  We seek the best balance of common sense and living our lives.  Perhaps we are wrong and will pay a big price, but so far (knock on wood) we have done quite well. 

 

Hank

[cruisemom42]

7 hours ago, KirkNC said:

The unanswered question remains....what will a ship do during a cruise if one or more passengers tests positive?  I hope with vaccinated passengers and crew they will isolate those infected and keep on cruising.  Unfortunately in the limited restarts that has not been the case.  I think before these lines set sail they need to fully disclose their policies on this and all other CV protocols.

 

Someone on another board posted this notice that is apparently part of the Celebrity/RCL restart cruises in the Caribbean:

 

 

NOTICE: Prior to booking, please consult all applicable U.S. Centers for Disease Control travel advisories, warnings, or recommendations relating to cruise travel, at cdc.gov/travel/notices. If a certain threshold level of COVID-19 is detected onboard the ship during your voyage, the voyage will end immediately, the ship will return to the port of embarkation, and your subsequent travel, including your return home, may be restricted or delayed.

 

This doesn't sound like the same type of agreement being executed for the European cruises that have had COVID. 

[kazu]

9 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Someone on another board posted this notice that is apparently part of the Celebrity/RCL restart cruises in the Caribbean:

 

 

NOTICE: Prior to booking, please consult all applicable U.S. Centers for Disease Control travel advisories, warnings, or recommendations relating to cruise travel, at cdc.gov/travel/notices. If a certain threshold level of COVID-19 is detected onboard the ship during your voyage, the voyage will end immediately, the ship will return to the port of embarkation, and your subsequent travel, including your return home, may be restricted or delayed.

 

This doesn't sound like the same type of agreement being executed for the European cruises that have had COVID. 

 

It doesn’t sound the same at all.  It may be the agreement they made to sail out of the Caribbean Islands or is it possible they are following CDC guidelines?

[Mary229]

1 hour ago, kazu said:

 

It doesn’t sound the same at all.  It may be the agreement they made to sail out of the Caribbean Islands or is it possible they are following CDC guidelines?

I didn't mean to imply it did.  I was responding in the general case, not the specifics of the Bahama cruises.  

[kazu]

1 minute ago, Mary229 said:

I didn't mean to imply it did.  I was responding in the general case, not the specifics of the Bahama cruises.  

 

I was replying to cruisemom.  I wasn’t trying to say you implied anything 🙂 

[Mary229]

I understand.  I guess I had two posts last night and I wanted to clarify they were separate.  One about the EU guidelines and one about The Bahamas but I can see how someone would think that I was mixing the two

[Hlitner]

13 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Someone on another board posted this notice that is apparently part of the Celebrity/RCL restart cruises in the Caribbean:

 

 

NOTICE: Prior to booking, please consult all applicable U.S. Centers for Disease Control travel advisories, warnings, or recommendations relating to cruise travel, at cdc.gov/travel/notices. If a certain threshold level of COVID-19 is detected onboard the ship during your voyage, the voyage will end immediately, the ship will return to the port of embarkation, and your subsequent travel, including your return home, may be restricted or delayed.

 

This doesn't sound like the same type of agreement being executed for the European cruises that have had COVID. 

While it might not be similar to any agreement for the European cruises it does state what has happened in Europe with quite a few cruises that have had COVID outbreaks.  There have been several cruises cut short (one Costa cruise quickly comes to mind) although other cruises that had a single case have continued after they got the sick person off the ship and put some others into quarantine.

 

What I find interesting about the statement you have highlighted is that there is no mention of the cost or the amount of delay.  While the cruise ship may have an agreement to return to its embarkation port and even have some kind of agreement with a local hospital there is still the problem of getting home.  For those that would test negative on an Antigen test (PCR test for Canadians) they could fly back home (although Canadians may still need to quarantine once they reach Canada).  But I have pointed out the pitfalls of anyone in a traveling family getting a positive COVID test.  In such a situation it is likely that the person (and I assume their family) would need to remain in place for 10 days to 2 weeks.  But if an entire family were to stay together and then another member were to subsequently test positive (such as after a week) then the clock restarts.

 

My advice to anyone contemplating the booking of one of these cruises (or taking any International trip) is to carefully read the current US (and Canadian) policy regarding the flying back to the USA.  Suffice it to say that a positive COVID test (regardless of whether there are any symptoms) will mean a significant delay outside the country at your own expense.  

 

Hank

[KirkNC]

I think this is one of many things early adopters are not considering.

[drowelf]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

I think this is one of many things early adopters are not considering.

I agree, which is also why we are not looking at any cruises in 2021. We will be content to let other take the chance, adventures and any risks first. And since the Caribbean is not our preferred destination anyway, the restarts don't appeal to us. We will wait until we can go farther afield (Asia, South Pacific, etc.) for our return to cruising.