The Debbie Downers have been right all along

[KroozNut]

3 hours ago, idiebabe said:

You have some stiff competition on this Thread for being the Downest of the Debbie Downers!  😂😂😂

 

Ain't that the truth!

[HappyInVan]

How is it possible that the Debbie people have been right for a full year? Do they possess mystical insights? What do they know that you don't? 🙄

 

How is it possible that the Facebook doctors and Twitter scientists have been wrong? What about the scientists? Have they told us the honest truth?

 

IMO, the experts have always understood the implications of failure. But, have been reluctant to voice their concerns in public. Rolling their eyes as their countries roll downhill without brakes. “We've offered our professional advise. The rest is up to you!”

 

Public Health is comprised of medical personnel. So, they would prefer to treat the pandemic as a medical emergency. The truth is that the pandemic is an existential crisis for some countries. The greatest threat since the civil war!

 

The mainstream media is aware of the big picture. They hire the best medical consultants. But, they're not going to be the bearer of terrible news. The viewers would just change channels.

 

They're all waiting for the politicians to say it first. But, which politician has the courage to tell the brutal truth? 'We are at war. Facing the greatest enemy of a generation. In a war that could take a decade of sacrifice!”

 

And somehow, some countries have defeated covid. Some jurisdictions have covid under control. Mind boggling?

 

 

 

[iancal]

We have been ignoring what the cruise lines say, what the travel writers and pundits say, and what the politicians are saying.

 

We are basing when we believe that can return to international travel  on the weekly covid stats.  They have far more credibility to us than any of the above and it seems to us that many of them are completely ignoring the reality of these numbers.

Edited March 17, 2021 by iancal

[KroozNut]

8 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

The mainstream media is aware of the big picture. They hire the best medical consultants. But, they're not going to be the bearer of terrible news. The viewers would just change channels.

Beg to differ on this. The MSM are more than happy to be the 'bearers of terrible news' as you put it (real or exaggerated). They more often than not lead with the grim statistics, and then go into great detail about the numbers.

Their viewers watch transfixed as the gloom and doom flows from their television screens, and then they go back to hiding under their beds until they're told that it's safe to come out.

 

[AllenF]

Let me start by saying I travel for work and from Dec. 2019 till today  ( Just flew back from Key Largo mini vacation) counting connections I have flown 72 times in 2020. It was great in April thru August did not miss the crowds. The last few times the planes have been full.  I traveled at the peak of the sweet and sour sniffles spring and fall of 2020. I work in the Nuclear Industry my travel has been from Taiwan to Chicago,  Miami and a few places in-between I was in Taiwan Dec 2019 when this 1st started and returned in Nov. 2020 where I had to do a 2 week quarantine Taiwan has had very little Covid but they did sound the alarm in late 2019. I have taken 9 Covid test all negative they were work required to have site access. Also at plant outages over a 1000 people come in from all over to work and we had to wear mask etc etc. Now a little about myself I am 57 and this past June 14th 2020 while playing Golf I had a heart attack only died for about a minute my buddy revived me. I spent 2 days in Hospital after having a stent put in. I went back to work on the 18th. I did not even know I had heart disease I walk 4 to 5 times a week was walking when I had the big one. Oh yeah borderline diabetic so with all my traveling Covid should have killed me according to the Debbie downers. While I am not down playing the loss of life from this outbreak of FLU alot of those who died were just like me had pre existing conditions except maybe a little older some who died were already in pretty bad shape. Most people survive (99%) when they have caught it unless they are very old the percentage goes down but then again just like me they have pre existing conditions some of them know about them some don't. Funny I have not heard of anyone dying of Cancer, Heart disease, diabetes etc but Covid is sure killing everybody well except in Chicago gun shots are still killing a few on week ends. Last week I did get my 1st vaccine shot I really did not want to cause I never get the regular flu shot but with my traveling for work and the fact I have to go back to Taiwan in June (that 2 week quarantine was worse than my heart attack) I am hoping by then with the vaccine I will not need to do that again cause I watched everything on Netflix twice during those 2 weeks. Bottom line at my age alot of stuff can kill me but I am not going to stop living cause I might die....hell were all gonna die. If you are worried and have concerns or pre existing conditions then by all means stay home cause it makes my traveling much easier 🙂 

 

[HappyInVan]

4 hours ago, KroozNut said:

Their viewers watch transfixed as the gloom and doom flows from their television screens, and then they go back to hiding under their beds until they're told that it's safe to come out.

 

 

Well, many countries have an ongoing horror show. Have you noticed? How's the view from your front windows? 😬

 

People should be scared. We weren't scared enough back during the summer. We could have beaten covid back then if 80% were wearing masks.

 

I don't have a science education. After the Chinese quarantined 40 million people in January 2020, I had to start from scratch. What I discovered scared me. I assumed that we were facing the pandemic of a generation.

 

Turned out that covid is the pandemic of the century. The speed (in less than a single year) at which covid is adapting to our counter measures is truly impressive.

 

IMO, covid has the potential to be the millennium plague. That's why I'm joining the experts who are advocating a zero-covid strategy. Regret always comes too late.

 

BTW, have you ever served under good officers? Able to inspire confidence with danger near. Drawing up an operations plan to keep the troops busy and in motion. 'Hiding under the bed' is not a plan.

 

Good leadership matters. Bad leadership is very obvious. 🙄

 

Here we are today! No cruises. Definitely no 'fun'.

Edited March 17, 2021 by HappyInVan

[iancal]

I would not depend on any media outlet.

 

Much easier to look up the world wide country based  covid stats.  You will very quickly be able to come to an opinion about the leadership you  have had  and the results obtained compared to other countries. 

 

You will also get a very good indication by watching the trend lines and the moving seven day averages as to what countries may be safely opening up to visitors and to cruisers over over the upcoming months.

 

Far better than any drivel from the media or those with hidden agendas.  It is all one google and one keystroke away if you are so inclined.

Edited March 18, 2021 by iancal

[HappyInVan]

Here's where Debbie was right again. Is Israel's vaccine campaign going well?

 

5.2 million people have been vax, with 4.4 million receiving the double dose.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/israel

 

Israel's vax campaign for adults is almost complete. Approximately 77% of the population over 14 have received at least one dose.

 

Congratulations to Israel for the speed of their program. For the high vaccination rate among adults, @80%. Job done in 4 months.

 

But, dear cruisers, only 56% of the nation's entire population (kids included) have been vaccinated. We have no idea when vaccination may start for the children. And, we don't yet know whether all children will receive a vax.

 

Herd immunity? Dream on.... Disney channel.

 

IMO, this is the high end of expectations for North America. With much lower rates for many states. Among health care and medical workers, only 65-75%.

 

Over here in Canada, my expectation is that 75% of adults will receive at least one dose by August. Even the people who prefer to wait and choose their vaccine...

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/half-of-canadians-want-first-covid-19-vaccine-available-poll-1.5348941

 

Here's the important part. Only 1.6% of Canada's population has been fully vax. Yet, Canada's infection rate (per capita) in the last week is only half of Israel. Try and explain that. Will the vaccines automatically solve your problem?

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/canada

 

I like numbers. No one can BS the math.

 

 

[KirkNC]

In Australia only .7% of the population have been vaccinated but they have virtually no virus cases.  Just shows that if a population is diligent with the three W’s the virus can be controlled without the vaccine.  The vaccine is important to control the virus in countries where the population is too self centered to take the necessary steps to protect themselves and their fellow man.

[KirkNC]

Here is an interesting take on why Australia has been so successful.  They currently have less then 20 cases in the whole country.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/15/10-reasons-australias-covid-19-success-story/

 

 

[tosteve1]

7 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Here is an interesting take on why Australia has been so successful.  They currently have less then 20 cases in the whole country.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/15/10-reasons-australias-covid-19-success-story/

 

 

“Be an island” hah hah. 

[kazu]

For the Debbie Downer Doubters - cruising is going to start up a bit in June with 3 lines.  Celebrity will home port out of St Maarten & RC out of Nassau.

 

They will sail at way below capacity, require masks, vaccination, test before boarding and entering the island & before disembarking (ships will do that), shore excursions only.

Pretty restrictive to start understandably, but let’s hope they are successful.  If so, we may see things expand 🤞 

[idiebabe]

7 minutes ago, kazu said:

For the Debbie Downer Doubters - cruising is going to start up a bit in June with 3 lines.  Celebrity will home port out of St Maarten & RC out of Nassau.

 

They will sail at way below capacity, require masks, vaccination, test before boarding and entering the island & before disembarking (ships will do that), shore excursions only.

Pretty restrictive to start understandably, but let’s hope they are successful.  If so, we may see things expand 🤞 

This is good news and a good beginning and, yes, hoping this is very successful so it can start expanding!  🤞

[idiebabe]

FYI!  This is hopeful, too!  

 

[rkacruiser]

6 hours ago, kazu said:

cruising is going to start up a bit in June with 3 lines.  Celebrity will home port out of St Maarten & RC out of Nassau.

 

Curious that there is nothing being heard from CCL.  So far.  

[HappyInVan]

I would dearly love to cruise again. I have money to burn, and not enough time. But, I have to be a responsible human being. The needs of the many against the wants of the few.

 

Hope that the tourists will NOT bring the disease into the islands. They don't have much in the way of medical faculties.

 

“The debate over masks comes as nearly half the country is experiencing a surge in Covid cases. Twenty-three states reported an increase in cases, as a seven-day average, over the past week, according to Johns Hopkins. Half a dozen states are also seeing hospitalizations trend higher, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.”

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/dr-peter-hotez-backs-fauci-in-his-showdown-with-sen-paul-over-masks.html?recirc=taboolainternal

 

“Fauci says the variant from the U.K. likely accounts for up to 30% of Covid infections in U.S.”

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/19/covid-fauci-says-the-variant-from-the-uk-likely-accounts-for-up-to-30percent-of-infections-in-us.html

 

Is the UK variant dangerous? Check out the covid trajectory in the UK from December. The country imposed a two month national shutdown. Will slowly relax restrictions into June!!!

 

https://ca.style.yahoo.com/bad-days-t-stand-shower-114525897.html

 

In any case, the USA already has domestic variants of concern. Be careful of what you wish for!

[whogo]

11 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Curious that there is nothing being heard from CCL.  So far.  

"P&O Cruises, which is part of the Carnival group, will run trips on two ships this summer." https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56416855

[wesport]

It seems the world is moving on and US cruising is stuck in a time warp. UK has started. Israel has started. Cruises have started in the Caribbean. Schools will be back in session.  Has to be a responsible way to start in the US. 

[KirkNC]

2 hours ago, wesport said:

It seems the world is moving on and US cruising is stuck in a time warp. UK has started. Israel has started. Cruises have started in the Caribbean. Schools will be back in session.  Has to be a responsible way to start in the US. 

Are you assuming the others are responsible?  Time will tell how they work out.

[Hlitner]

Having had a couple of days to reflect on RCI/Celebrity restarting in June it occurs to me that those cruises are going to a bellwether for the cruise industry here in North America.  Those ships are using very strict protocols with a combination of mandatory vaccinations, mandatory testing, and capacity controls.  If the cruises are successful it will give the cruise lines some basis to nudge the CDC.  But if those cruises fail (in terms of COVID) it may set back the restart of cruising (in North America) for a very long time.  The CDC guidelines (published last Nov 1) required test cruises and in a sense these cruises out of the Bahamas and St Maarten are certainly going to be a test as to whether the lines can operate during a pandemic.  Lets all wish them a lot of good luck :).

 

Hank

[cruisemom42]

3 hours ago, wesport said:

It seems the world is moving on and US cruising is stuck in a time warp. UK has started. Israel has started. Cruises have started in the Caribbean. Schools will be back in session.  Has to be a responsible way to start in the US. 

 

Perhaps the time warp has something to do with our rates of COVID relative to other countries...?

 

A responsible way to start in the US might be to continue vaccination and appropriate mask/social distancing protocols until our numbers reach much lower levels (like Israel's).

[AncientWanderer]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

Having had a couple of days to reflect on RCI/Celebrity restarting in June it occurs to me that those cruises are going to a bellwether for the cruise industry here in North America.  Those ships are using very strict protocols with a combination of mandatory vaccinations, mandatory testing, and capacity controls.  If the cruises are successful it will give the cruise lines some basis to nudge the CDC.  But if those cruises fail (in terms of COVID) it may set back the restart of cruising (in North America) for a very long time.  The CDC guidelines (published last Nov 1) required test cruises and in a sense these cruises out of the Bahamas and St Maarten are certainly going to be a test as to whether the lines can operate during a pandemic.  Lets all wish them a lot of good luck :).

 

Hank

 

I agree, and also look for success here because a lot has changed since cruising was shut down.  Testing is quicker and more accurate; and people are vaccinated.  If there should be a case onboard, it doesn't have to be like before, when passengers had a heck of a time being repatriated to their own countries.  

I'm excited to see movement in the cruise industry, figuratively and literally.  😊

[Hlitner]

39 minutes ago, AncientWanderer said:

 

I agree, and also look for success here because a lot has changed since cruising was shut down.  Testing is quicker and more accurate; and people are vaccinated.  If there should be a case onboard, it doesn't have to be like before, when passengers had a heck of a time being repatriated to their own countries.  

I'm excited to see movement in the cruise industry, figuratively and literally.  😊

Perhaps.  But consider that current US regulations mandate that anyone flying to the USA must have a negative Covid test (antigen) within 3 days of their flight.  So, if somebody were to test positive on a cruise from Nassau or St Maarten they would need to quarantine somewhere outside of the USA for about 2 weeks.  I assume that RCI and Celebrity will have some kind of deal with the Bahamas and St Maarten that would allow such a passengers to quarantine in those countries...because they will not be allowed back in the USA.  

 

We have some first hand experience with this testing requirement having spent the winter living in Mexico.  About 10 days ago DW and I got antigen tests in Puerto Vallarta (we were both negative) before we could fly home last Saturday.  We kind of joked about those tests that if we had failed we would have been "Homeless in Vallarta" because our Condo was rented to another couple the day we were scheduled to fly home.  If either of us had tested positive we would have needed to find another place to quarantine for a couple of weeks and also get a physician to handle our care and later write the necessary letter that would allow us to return to the USA.  

 

So consider a family of 4 that takes on of those RCI or Celebrity cruises and even a single member were to test positive.  They would have to handle the cost of staying somewhere outside the USA for at least 2 weeks (and if COVID later spread to another in their family that would add additional days//weeks).  Not only would they have those extra costs (unless they could find an insurance policy to cover it) but the delay in getting home would have a major impact on jobs/school.

 

Hank

 

[cruiserchuck]

4 hours ago, wesport said:

It seems the world is moving on and US cruising is stuck in a time warp. UK has started. Israel has started. Cruises have started in the Caribbean. Schools will be back in session.  Has to be a responsible way to start in the US. 

Cruises have not yet started in the UK, Israel or the Caribbean.  When they do start, hopefully everything will go smoothly.  However, with respect to the recently announced Caribbean cruises on Celebrity, RCL and Crystal, I would assume most of the passengers will be from the US.  With COVID trending up in many states, I have doubts that those cruises will actually take place as currently scheduled.  

[Hlitner]

In the USA, the numbers are actually quite good (with a few small exceptions) with week over week new cases dropping about 11% and the death rate dropping over 16%.  By requiring a combination of both testing and vaccination the cruise lines are minimizing the risk.  That being said, as I previously posted, their weak link is allowing non vaccinated cruisers under 18.  I would be curious to see their plan on how they will handle 1 or more COVID cases among the young folks.   You should also consider that the vaccines do work and we are currently giving out more then 2 million shots per day (and that rate will increase).  By the time these cruises start in June there will be another 100 million vaccine doses in American arms.

 

Hank