Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

[woodscruise]

19 minutes ago, Chiliburn said:

So what ship Michael?

Im thinking Radiance but people on another forum are saying Spectrum in Sydney from April-May.

It all depends on how Spectrum is selling. If there is a demand for it in China/Japan then I guess they will keep it there. Radiance is currently schedule for Alaska, which is given Royal 4 ships there. I think this is an overkill for Alaska, and they do have a Radiance class in the market (Serenade). My guess will be to relocate Radiance to OZ this year, then maybe Rhapsody year round from 2023. My reasoning for Rhapsody is because of the port bookings at the end of 2023.

[gbenjo]

On 11/17/2021 at 4:32 PM, Blackduck59 said:

Some pi are square?

Big Ben ………..you may not get it Lyle.😁

Edited November 18, 2021 by gbenjo

[GUT2407]

Just in case

[gbenjo]

3 minutes ago, GUT2407 said:

Just in case

Thanks mate  👍

[ollyoeno]

3 hours ago, Chiliburn said:

Australia is a important market. There’s been a lot of talk over the years of climate refugee tourism. People from the Europe and USA escaping the heat.
‘The mild Australian winter is better than 3 months of 45 degrees in Texas.

A small ship like Rhapsody in cairns and a large ship in Brisbane over winter is only a matter of time.
So what ship Michael?

Im thinking Radiance but people on another forum are saying Spectrum in Sydney from April-May.

There’s also Brilliance ,Rhapsody and vision.
Someone said Navigator is a possibility as it’s not selling well ???

 

Chilli, out of these, are any likely to offer repositioning cruises into Aus? Or to follow later in 2022? Consider the point of origin and whether we are likely to have a travel corridor open with that country too, perhaps.

[Chiliburn]

1 hour ago, ollyoeno said:

 

Chilli, out of these, are any likely to offer repositioning cruises into Aus? Or to follow later in 2022? Consider the point of origin and whether we are likely to have a travel corridor open with that country too, perhaps.

There could be a cruise travel bubble with Singapore but I think a reposition cruise before 2023 would give our government a brain freeze.

[ollyoeno]

13 minutes ago, Chiliburn said:

There could be a cruise travel bubble with Singapore but I think a reposition cruise before 2023 would give our government a brain freeze.

 

“Further, we need state and territory governments to commit to accepting cruise ship arrivals.” From this source.

 

Carnival, NCL, Princess, RCL... I can't see how any of these operators will relocate ships to Australia unless the Federal gov gives some assurances we will become a tourist destination again, so perhaps you are right. No cruise line would ditch their lucrative European and American customer base without providing them with a new destination as a compromise.

 

Edit: I just did a search, there are an awful lot of ships sailing from the US, Europe and UK to Australia in October 2022 at the beginning of the wave season.

Edited November 19, 2021 by ollyoeno

[Chiliburn]

4 minutes ago, ollyoeno said:

 

“Further, we need state and territory governments to commit to accepting cruise ship arrivals.” From this source.

 

Carnival, NCL, Princess, RCL... I can't see how any of these operators will relocate ships to Australia unless the Federal gov gives some assurances we will become a tourist destination again, so perhaps you are right. No cruise line would ditch their lucrative European and American customer base without providing them with a new destination as a compromise.

 

Edit: I just did a search, there are an awful lot of ships sailing from the US, Europe and UK to Australia in October 2022 at the beginning of the wave season.

I don’t think the cruise lines would risk a repo to Australia in the short term.

Could you imagine a ship turning up after a 3 week reposition cruise with some Covid onboard.

[Aus Traveller]

1 minute ago, Chiliburn said:

I don’t think the cruise lines would risk a repo to Australia in the short term.

Could you imagine a ship turning up after a 3 week reposition cruise with some Covid onboard.

I agree. When cruise ships are permitted to return to Australia, I think they will come with crew only - no passengers, then cruise from Australian ports. Initial cruises are likely to be domestic and maybe even limited to the one State.

[ollyoeno]

9 minutes ago, Chiliburn said:

I don’t think the cruise lines would risk a repo to Australia in the short term.

Could you imagine a ship turning up after a 3 week reposition cruise with some Covid onboard.

7 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

I agree. When cruise ships are permitted to return to Australia, I think they will come with crew only - no passengers, then cruise from Australian ports. Initial cruises are likely to be domestic and maybe even limited to the one State.

 

Although I agree (we know the playbook is for countries to start domestic cruises before internationally) it wasn't really what I was trying to get at.

 

Looking at this from a business perspective, I am failing to see what economic advantage there is for any cruise line to reposition a vessel to the Australian market until it's clear we will reopen to international tourism. Hence the question about repositioning. It is simply not a money maker for a cruiseline to reposition a vessel to Australia so it can facilitate short-haul domestic sailings when those cruiselines can charge passengers much more elsewhere, take on greater passenger caps, take less risk from government interference, and sail to multiple countries on longer itineraries.

[Aus Traveller]

1 minute ago, ollyoeno said:

 

Although I agree (we know the playbook is for countries to start domestic cruises before internationally) it wasn't really what I was trying to get at.

 

Looking at this from a business perspective, I am failing to see what economic advantage there is for any cruise line to reposition a vessel to the Australian market until it's clear we will reopen to international tourism. Hence the question about repositioning. It is simply not a money maker for a cruiseline to reposition a vessel to Australia so it can facilitate short-haul domestic sailings when those cruiselines can charge passengers much more elsewhere, take on greater passenger caps, take less risk from government interference, and sail to multiple countries on longer itineraries.

Before COVID, Australia was a lucrative market for cruise lines. We don't know if there will be passenger caps - I think it is possible that there won't be. A cruise doesn't have to go to multiple countries or on long itineraries to be profitable. It often works the other way. One reason longer cruises (such as a WC) have a higher per-day cost is that passengers spend more per day on board on a short cruise than a very long cruise where many people limit their spending.

[OzKiwiJJ]

44 minutes ago, ollyoeno said:

 

Although I agree (we know the playbook is for countries to start domestic cruises before internationally) it wasn't really what I was trying to get at.

 

Looking at this from a business perspective, I am failing to see what economic advantage there is for any cruise line to reposition a vessel to the Australian market until it's clear we will reopen to international tourism. Hence the question about repositioning. It is simply not a money maker for a cruiseline to reposition a vessel to Australia so it can facilitate short-haul domestic sailings when those cruiselines can charge passengers much more elsewhere, take on greater passenger caps, take less risk from government interference, and sail to multiple countries on longer itineraries.

It might surprise you how many Australians and New Zealanders cruise, especially on lines like P&O and Carnival. Enough to keep a few ships busy at any rate. I'm fairly certain we'll see domestic cruising here from about March and, hopefully, we'll be getting back to some semblance of normality by the time the 22/23 season starts.

[MicCanberra]

I think the benefits of having a ship sailing with passengers (anywhere) is going to be more profitable than one not, so relocating empty and then doing a quarantine period would be costly but worth it to get cruising again.

[cruisingaussies]

7 hours ago, Chiliburn said:

There could be a cruise travel bubble with Singapore but I think a reposition cruise before 2023 would give our government a brain freeze.

Are you really suggesting anyone in the government has a brain to freeze?? 🤣

[ollyoeno]

6 hours ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

It might surprise you how many Australians and New Zealanders cruise, especially on lines like P&O and Carnival. Enough to keep a few ships busy at any rate. I'm fairly certain we'll see domestic cruising here from about March and, hopefully, we'll be getting back to some semblance of normality by the time the 22/23 season starts.

 

I'm well aware of what CLIA reports for Australasia, still - I doubt our market has a greater share of passengers than in the US or Europe. It's just a question of numbers and profitability.

 

Are the Singaporean a little fed up of taking a domestic cruise to nowhere? I'm hoping the ships come back when mass tourism resumes early next year, so all of this becomes redundant.

[OzKiwiJJ]

6 minutes ago, ollyoeno said:

 

I'm well aware of what CLIA reports for Australasia, still - I doubt our market has a greater share of passengers than in the US or Europe. It's just a question of numbers and profitability.

 

Are the Singaporean a little fed up of taking a domestic cruise to nowhere? I'm hoping the ships come back when mass tourism resumes early next year, so all of this becomes redundant.

But one of the problems with European cruising, and possibly the US as well, is port availability especially in some places where the ports are starting to limit the number/size of ships so a different, less saturated, market like Australia/NZ is attractive, or at least it was pre-pandemic. We started cruising in Dec 2014 and even in that short time I noticed a huge increase in the number of ships coming down under for the season. 

[ollyoeno]

Understood. That's a very valid point.

 

Posting this incase anyone missed it (from 26th October):

 

Dan Tehan: Look, my hope is that we will be able to have cruise ships back soon. Obviously, they’re incredibly important for our tourism industry.

 

Rebecca Levingston: But how soon? I understand there’s a review on passenger numbers on December 17, is that correct?

 

Dan Tehan: That’s right. There is – the quarantine arrangements at the moment only permit cruise ships who carry under a hundred passengers to ply in Australian waters at the moment. That will – that decision will be reviewed and to see whether we lift that on December 17. So, the Government is undertaking consideration of that at the moment. And my hope is that we’ll be able to give certainty to the cruise ship industry to be able to return to Australia, because they’re incredibly, incredibly popular.

[GUT2407]

12 hours ago, Aus Traveller said:

I agree. When cruise ships are permitted to return to Australia, I think they will come with crew only - no passengers, then cruise from Australian ports. Initial cruises are likely to be domestic and maybe even limited to the one State.

If limited to one state options are pretty limited, probably only Qld, NSW, and WA could offer enough ports, unless you spend a couple of two sea day sets you’d struggle to get a week in any other state.

[By The Bay]

13 hours ago, ollyoeno said:

Are the Singaporean a little fed up of taking a domestic cruise to nowhere? I'm hoping the ships come back when mass tourism resumes early next year, so all of this becomes redundant.

They use them to access the casino onboard. 

[NSWP]

15 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

They use them to access the casino onboard. 

Yes big gamblers, I am surprised they don't have poker machines in the Singapore Airport lol, like Vegas.🎰

[Aus Traveller]

1 hour ago, NSWP said:

Yes big gamblers, I am surprised they don't have poker machines in the Singapore Airport lol, like Vegas.🎰

There are strict laws in Singapore regarding casinos and gambling.

[By The Bay]

1 hour ago, Aus Traveller said:

There are strict laws in Singapore regarding casinos and gambling.

That is why they love the short cruises. In Penang they used to have a daytime cruise out into international waters on the old Norwegian Cruise Line's Skyward, and a overnight cruise as well. See Leisure World. She was scraped in July this year.

[NSWP]

2 hours ago, Aus Traveller said:

There are strict laws in Singapore regarding casinos and gambling.

Like HK, they head to Macau, was there in 2017,  42 casinos on Macau for the thousands of Chinese gamblers from HK and mainland China. I think they still had a gambling ship anchored in Hong Kong Harbour. 

Edited November 20, 2021 by NSWP

[ollyoeno]

Silversea have a few itineraries calling through Australia in March, most of which call at international ports such as Fiji, Bali, Signapore.

[Aussieflyer]

Well a bit of action in SA though Coral Expeditions has been running some cruises before this but a first for SA in current conditions:

The SA Tourism Commission says it's feeling positive about the future of the cruise industry as passengers prepare to journey through SA today. 

The first expedition vessel of the cruise season has arrived in Adelaide and will take on more than 80 passengers.

Edited November 21, 2021 by Aussieflyer