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Post Corona, will every ship still sail?

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I understand that nobody knows for sure, but what are your thoughts?

Will every ship in the fleet sail when they start cruising again?

 

The cruise lines might have a hard time filling the ships and if that's the case do you think that some ships might still be out of service?

 

If Royal starts sailing with fewer ships, which ships do you think still will be taken out of service?

 

We have four cruises booked and I'm not sure that any of them will sail, even if they start cruising again.

 

Freedom from San Juan in September. A port that Royal, even before the Corona virus, said that they would homeport fewer ships from. I think that Freedom still would sail, but maybe not from San Juan.

 

Vision 11nts in late March 2021 from Ft. Lauderdale. A longer cruise on an older ship.

 

Odyssey from Ft. Lauderdale in April 2021. Will she be completed by then? With Europe on lock down and the ship still being built, I'm not sure.

 

Empress from Miami in April 2021.

The oldest ship in the fleet, a ship that Royal took back into the fleet to be able to sail to Havanna. Since Cuba now days are a no go, the ship are more or less pointless. 

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Might mean the end of some of the older ships.  Could start slowly, only one ship for each port, fewer Alaska cruises, only one ship out of Australia etc until things pick up.

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Offering fewer sailings will limit choice of ships. Better for the cruise line to send out each sailing with max passengers.

Would also think older ships do not produce the profits, due to cost of upkeep.

Another unknown factor is any new requirements in place, to sail? Age, health?

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I think the Caribbean will open up with a few  ships to see how the market reacts. I don't believe there will be Alaska this year. If there is, maybe one of the Quantum Class ships only. As to other areas, I;m not familiar enough to answer.Another problem, given that the U.S. is now the epi center of the virus, is how many places will accept ships from the U.S.

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IMHO, Here is how it plays out And I only covered the main stream lines.

 

NCL - will become insolvent within 6-9 months. FDR will step down, Assets will be sold off within 18 months

 

Disney CL - They will be Ok. however, they will postpone New builds 

Carnival Corp - Should reman intact. Arnold Donald is a real sharp guy. But i believe Princess will have such negative brand recognition that. It will cease to exist with 6-12 mo. Holland America will sell off their smaller ships for cash flow.
 

RCCL-  already postponed several ship refurbishments.  Pause all future new builds indefinitely. Azamara may be sold off to a UK or Australian tour group.

Celebrity should be fine.

 

MSC - may leave the US market to regroup and rethink future strategies.

 

 

  

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It would seem possible fewer sailings/ships, demand will be down and they won't want to sail half full ships.   Logistically I suppose the only way to do that would be keep some sailings and their individual reservations, and continue waves of cancellations for the ships not sailing.  Then hope the vacancies on the remaining ships (not everyone would want to sail them anyway) can be filled with new customers.

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This is purely speculative.  First and foremost, it depends on how long this goes on.  There is a difference between having everything essentially shut down and telling people it's okay to congregate in confined space with a large group (which is quintessentially cruising).

 

That being said, I think it will be necessary to operate the vessels or unload them.  These aren't cars you just park in the garage and take the key.  They have to keep operating or bad bad things happen to them.   As such, if they have any plans of keeping them, they will have to maintain them as operational.

 

I think you will see all ships sail, but with far fewer bookings and significantly reduced rates.  The cruise lines will continue to lose money and all will likely go into bankruptcy reorganization.  But the ships are their single asset. And the only way to maintain the asset is to keep it operating.  It costs a substantial amount just to do that, they'll get whatever revenue they can to try and offset the costs.  It won't work, but they'll try.

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There is already a thread more or less talking about this...

 

 

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7 hours ago, leisuretraveler223 said:

First and foremost, it depends on how long this goes on

Absolutely this.

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The following is just my opinion. Most of you will probably disagree. I sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong. I'm not looking to argue with anyone, but feel free to post a simple "you're an idiot" reply.

 

The cruise industry as we know it is dead. The cruise companies will not survive. Worse, most of the ancillary companies that support the cruise industry will not survive. Travel insurance, food suppliers, etc. are all going to be gone. The industry has generated a ton of bad will, so government and ports will treat the industry differently. Yes, there will be cruises, but the industry will be unrecognizable. And I can't even speculate as to what it will be. Hopefully, with time, it will become something even better than it was. But in the sort term, it's going to be extremely ugly. 

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12 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

The following is just my opinion. Most of you will probably disagree. I sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong. I'm not looking to argue with anyone, but feel free to post a simple "you're an idiot" reply.

 

The cruise industry as we know it is dead. The cruise companies will not survive. Worse, most of the ancillary companies that support the cruise industry will not survive. Travel insurance, food suppliers, etc. are all going to be gone. The industry has generated a ton of bad will, so government and ports will treat the industry differently. Yes, there will be cruises, but the industry will be unrecognizable. And I can't even speculate as to what it will be. Hopefully, with time, it will become something even better than it was. But in the sort term, it's going to be extremely ugly. 

I'm not gonna call you an idiot but I don't understand how the cruise companies "generated bad will"? What the heck were they going to do when they were hit with a pandemic the likes of which none of us has ever seen? They didn't start the virus? They have now completely shut down the industry losing zillions of dollars, I mean they had to but that is the fact? I do not agree with gloom here. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Absolutely this.

 

+1 👍

This is the answer to almost every thread on this forum at this time, and nobody has an answer....

well..... maybe just a little bit based on a bazillion factors we just cannot predict

 

Go back to any of the virus threads on this forum from 1 week ago, 2 weeks, 3 weeks.... read them from the start to today, and you'll definitely see how totally ignorant so many COVID-iots were here on CC. North America has followed to a tee every other country more or less and is ramping up to an apex in the next few weeks.  

 

So the way I've been looking at it, I tabulate where China, S Korea, Italy and Spain are today. Take where they are today knowing they have already gone through what were going to see in the next few weeks. You don't have to be a rocket scientist  to wake up and actually listen to any body and everybody in the medical profession (incl you're beloved Dr. Fauci) saying this is going to last several months bare minimum... this has been the message all along

 

17 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

The following is just my opinion. Most of you will probably disagree. I sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong. 

The cruise industry as we know it is dead. The cruise companies will not survive.... But in the sort term, it's going to be extremely ugly. 

 

Although extremely negative and worst case scenario, I thought this is a thoughtful post.... very unfortunate that this has a lot of merit in my humble opinion as well. Like you said, I really hope you are wrong as well. I'm somewhere in the middle... I feel perhaps there's going to be some ugly within all this (ie, someone will go bankrupt but not everyone... or more likely something else will happen or be announced that we cannot predict at this moment) and then on the other side there will be ships sailing... whenever that other side is.

Edited by Hoopster95

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

I'm not gonna call you an idiot but I don't understand how the cruise companies "generated bad will"? What the heck were they going to do when they were hit with a pandemic the likes of which none of us has ever seen? They didn't start the virus? They have now completely shut down the industry losing zillions of dollars, I mean they had to but that is the fact? I do not agree with gloom here. 

 

For now, I just saying the industry has generated a ton of bad will. Not that it's "fair." Anytime bad things happen, people are going to be pointing fingers. And right now, the cruise industry is an easy scapegoat. 

Edited by zekekelso

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1 minute ago, zekekelso said:

 

For now, I just saying the industry has generated a ton of bad will. Not that it's "fair." Anytime bad things happen, people are going to be pointing fingers. And right now, the cruise industry is an easy scapegoat. 

Ok, I understand where you are coming from. I say not fair like you said. Silver lining, there is a TA on You Tube I follow, the CEO of the TA and he said this last few weeks have been the biggest booking weeks in his entire career. He said he was surprised but yeah biggest booking weeks of his career. Some good news.

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10 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

Ok, I understand where you are coming from. I say not fair like you said. Silver lining, there is a TA on You Tube I follow, the CEO of the TA and he said this last few weeks have been the biggest booking weeks in his entire career. He said he was surprised but yeah biggest booking weeks of his career. Some good news.

I wonder if many of those bookings are people with FCCs who want to make sure they have something booked before the certificates expire. If so, it doesn't help the cruise lines as much as new cash flowing in. It also doesn't mean the people who were contemplating trying a cruise vacation are jumpung in.

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If the cruise lines can hold out until there’s a vaccine or a confirmed treatment regimen, I think they’ll be fine. It might be harder for them to reel in as many new passengers for a while but if they can get prices low enough for returning passengers to go for it, they can keep the lights on until this is really over. I think they will probably start being stricter with their health questionnaires though, and possibly requiring doctors notes for more passengers than before. 

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2 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I wonder if many of those bookings are people with FCCs who want to make sure they have something booked before the certificates expire.

Either way still good news, they aren't taking their money out, they are looking to cruise when they start back up. Our May 10 cruise is gone, already booked for Sept. Kinda like the stock market, how many are keeping their money in Vs taking it out. I think he said it was a mix.

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4 minutes ago, lbjen said:

I think they’ll be fine. 

 

Another great and thoughtful post with a lot of good points, with the very first word of your entire post as the absolute key...

"If"

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5 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

Either way still good news, they aren't taking their money out, they are looking to cruise when they start back up. Our May 10 cruise is gone, already booked for Sept. Kinda like the stock market, how many are keeping their money in Vs taking it out. I think he said it was a mix.

True they are not taking their money out but one of two things might be happening. They could be taking a cabin that would have been bringing in fresh cash. More likely they are taking a cabin that would have sailed empty because new people are not getting in.

 

Hopefully, those FCCs will keep enough people on the ships to keep thing going until visions of the Diamond Princess fade.

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1 minute ago, Ocean Boy said:

True they are not taking their money out but one of two things might be happening. They could be taking a cabin that would have been bringing in fresh cash. More likely they are taking a cabin that would have sailed empty because new people are not getting in.

Sounds like prices are going up in that scenario. Cruise lines like that. 🤣

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7 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Another great and thoughtful post with a lot of good points, with the very first word of your entire post as the absolute key...

"If"

Incredible how important a two letter word can be.

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I have not seen any cruise line cancel cruises beyond something like May or possibly June.  I still have my cruises booked in Oct/Nov.  Ship availability and port availability are going to make many decisions for all the cruise lines.  I do not think that any of the cruise lines will emerge as we know/knew them.  Cash flow is critical and so many of us participating here will have some amount of FCC they want to spend.  Like gift cards, that does not give cash flow.  They need to sell cabins and have cabins to sell.  Will they limit sales of cabins for FCC purchase?  What ports may close to cruise ships?  Way too many moving parts to try to guess the outcome.  I hope we all are able to meet at a M&G on a ship in the coming year or two and have a drink and a laugh about all this.  For now, we all need to stay safe and beat this virus so we can move on.

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There will be cruises after all of this, whenever that may be.  Someone will eventually sail all those ships out there, if the original entity(ies) fail. The industry has been unwilling changed, for years though. I don’t see any doubt about that.  
 

As far as RCCL, I feel they will end up about where they were before Freedom of the Seas - around 2006 passenger levels. Maybe I’m being optimistic?  I also think they’ll be back to marketing towards loyalty again, as opposed to new customers as they’ve done for the last 5-10 years. It could take a year or two before “new” costumers start coming back to cruising.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Either way still good news, they aren't taking their money out, they are looking to cruise when they start back up. Our May 10 cruise is gone, already booked for Sept. Kinda like the stock market, how many are keeping their money in Vs taking it out. I think he said it was a mix.

People aren’t taking their money out because their money was non-refundable and they had no choice. If people had the choice, I think the majority would take their cash and use it for another cruise when they’re ready rather than accept an FCC with an expiration date that isn’t really that far away. 
 

I had the option to take cash (my cruise was refundable and I also have cancel for any reason insurance) and I took the cash. Didn’t even contemplate taking an FCC, and I’ll be using the insurance for my airfare if the airline doesn’t cancel my flight and give me all my money back first.

Edited by ARandomTraveler

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2 hours ago, ARandomTraveler said:

People aren’t taking their money out because their money was non-refundable and they had no choice. If people had the choice, I think the majority would take their cash and use it for another cruise when they’re ready rather than accept an FCC with an expiration date that isn’t really that far away. 
 

I had the option to take cash (my cruise was refundable and I also have cancel for any reason insurance) and I took the cash. Didn’t even contemplate taking an FCC, and I’ll be using the insurance for my airfare if the airline doesn’t cancel my flight and give me all my money back first.

I do not believe that is correct. This overrode the non-refundable/refundable. I believe no matter what you chose you can get your money when your cruise is cancelled.

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