Food for thought

[maxsales]

In the coming weeks and moths RCL, and all other cruise lines are going to need serious cash infusions to remain in business. As proved by CCL’s recent credit terms the cost of credit has reached junk bond status and those rates won’t be sustainable. 
 

So here’s the food for thought. RCL dramatically drops the price on 2021 and 2022 sailings but ties those price drops to much larger non refundable deposits. Isn’t the best source of interest free cash customer deposits?

[firefly333]

Dream on ...

 

Prices are up not down. People are trying to use fcc to book and rcl policy seems to be to raise prices. Lots of threads like yours wishing and hoping prices drop, but so far reality is they arent dropping.

 

Maybe read thru some other threads speculating on future prices up or down? And why people think up or down. There are lots hoping for cheaper prices like you. 

 

I got 3 deposits they can use, one deferred deposit. They are already getting future deposits so people can apply their fccs 

 

Lower prices and larger deposits wouldnt help for very long since I expect my fcc to be applied to deposits and get some refunds on them.

Edited April 5, 2020 by firefly333

[Mapleleafforever]

16 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Dream on ...

 

Prices are up not down. People are trying to use fcc to book and rcl policy seems to be to raise prices. Lots of threads like yours wishing and hoping prices drop, but so far reality is they arent dropping.

 

Maybe read thru some other threads speculating on future prices up or down? And why people think up or down. There are lots hoping for cheaper prices like you. 

 

I got 3 deposits they can use, one deferred deposit. They are already getting future deposits so people can apply their fccs 

 

Lower prices and larger deposits wouldnt help for very long since I expect my fcc to be applied to deposits and get some refunds on them.

Exactly. And don't forget the inevitable raising of the gratuities......and I have a theory that they will be made mandatory and no longer discretionary. 

[firefly333]

Just now, Mapleleafforever said:

Exactly. And don't forget the inevitable raising of the gratuities......and I have a theory that they will be made mandatory and no longer discretionary. 

Ok by me if tips are mandatory, but then I dont have 4 kids. I pay whatever they charge me for tips. Dont even know the per day amount.

 

The only time I'm aware of raising tips is if I'm on cc and see the complaining.

[zekekelso]

13 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

.and I have a theory that they will be made mandatory and no longer discretionary. 

 

That would be good. Better still, fold them into the cruise price. 

[firefly333]

24 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

 

That would be good. Better still, fold them into the cruise price. 

Physiologically that doesnt work. People see a higher price vs other lines and wouldnt pay it. Every cruise line would have to also do it which wouldnt happen.

 

Besides how many get obc and apply it to the tips once onboard.

 

 

[Another_Critic]

3 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Besides how many get obc and apply it to the tips once onboard.

 

✋

[maxsales]

3 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Dream on ...

 

Prices are up not down. People are trying to use fcc to book and rcl policy seems to be to raise prices. Lots of threads like yours wishing and hoping prices drop, but so far reality is they arent dropping.

 

Maybe read thru some other threads speculating on future prices up or down? And why people think up or down. There are lots hoping for cheaper prices like you. 

 

I got 3 deposits they can use, one deferred deposit. They are already getting future deposits so people can apply their fccs 

 

Lower prices and larger deposits wouldnt help for very long since I expect my fcc to be applied to deposits and get some refunds on them.

Well we will see won't we?  since neither of us has a crystal ball we are only expressing an opinion.

My thought was simply a cheap way for the cruise lines to raise cash.

 

Oh and they can do both can't they?  Why not offer very substantial price reductions, of say 25-50%, for a booking with a 500 or 1000 PP non-refundable deposit?  RCL is already offering reduced fares tied to non refundable deposits so there is logic in expanding that approach.

[maxsales]

3 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Dream on ...

 

Prices are up not down. People are trying to use fcc to book and rcl policy seems to be to raise prices. Lots of threads like yours wishing and hoping prices drop, but so far reality is they arent dropping.

 

Maybe read thru some other threads speculating on future prices up or down? And why people think up or down. There are lots hoping for cheaper prices like you. 

 

I got 3 deposits they can use, one deferred deposit. They are already getting future deposits so people can apply their fccs 

 

Lower prices and larger deposits wouldnt help for very long since I expect my fcc to be applied to deposits and get some refunds on them.

I would like you to tell me how you are seeing prices as being up, these prices for one year from now seem steady or lower.  columns are inside, oceanview and balcony and suites. 

05APR2021	5	RCC	Independence Of The Seas	Western Caribbean	FLL	458.50	523.50	635.50	848.00
	05APR2021	5	CEL	Celebrity Infinity	Western Caribbean	MIA	802.00150 OBC	847.00150 OBC	1,077.00	1,749.00
	05APR2021	4	RCC	Mariner Of The Seas	Bahamas	PCN	570.50	650.00	730.00	964.50
	05APR2021	4	RCC	Navigator Of The Seas	Bahamas	MIA	534.00	613.50	704.00	994.00
	05APR2021	10	RCC	Quantum Of The Seas	Far East	NRT	807.50	870.50	996.50	1,528.50
	07APR2021	5	RCC	Adventure Of The Seas	Western Caribbean	GAL	385.50	503.00	639.50	1,091.00
	07APR2021	9	RCC	Jewel Of The Seas	Western Mediterranean	BCN	1,248.50	1,348.50	1,698.50	2,578.50
	07APR2021	12	CEL	Celebrity Silhouette	Transatlantic	GIG	1,609.00	1,759.00	2,409.00	4,999.00
	08APR2021	4	RCC	Brilliance Of The Seas	Western Caribbean	TPA	468.00	515.50	698.50	1,082.50
	08APR2021Closed	5	RCC	Quantum Of The Seas	Far East	SIN	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Edited April 5, 2020 by maxsales
added info

[JAMESCC]

3 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Dream on ...

 

Prices are up not down. People are trying to use fcc to book and rcl policy seems to be to raise prices. Lots of threads like yours wishing and hoping prices drop, but so far reality is they arent dropping.

 

Maybe read thru some other threads speculating on future prices up or down? And why people think up or down. There are lots hoping for cheaper prices like you. 

 

I got 3 deposits they can use, one deferred deposit. They are already getting future deposits so people can apply their fccs 

 

Lower prices and larger deposits wouldnt help for very long since I expect my fcc to be applied to deposits and get some refunds on them.

That is exactly why when my May Oasis cruise was cancelled I booked Sept within minutes of finding out. Email to my TA and it was all done in 30 minutes. I was afraid people using FCC's would jack up prices so I jumped on it re-booking instantly. 

[firefly333]

20 minutes ago, maxsales said:

Well we will see won't we?  since neither of us has a crystal ball we are only expressing an opinion.

My thought was simply a cheap way for the cruise lines to raise cash.

 

Oh and they can do both can't they?  Why not offer very substantial price reductions, of say 25-50%, for a booking with a 500 or 1000 PP non-refundable deposit?  RCL is already offering reduced fares tied to non refundable deposits so there is logic in expanding that approach.

My solo liberty booked at under 750, plus 101, senior rate, I cant rebook for any date for the same price

 

The adventure april 7th booking, as a matter of fact that was the best price all next year, the april prices 2021 that you highlight. Though they upped the refundable deposit by $59, which is up from $38 just last week. I also booked the b2b leg in april. I agree next april for some reason prices arent bad. I was booked april of this year on liberty but had to move booking to another ship to get same or close per day prices.

 

I'm going by the rate I booked at vs what I can book next year. I do see some ok rates next april 2021 as you note, only a little higher per day than what I had this april.  .. however i moved from regular inside to smaller solo inside on adventure to match the previous price.

 

Since Galveston for a short window has 2 ships with solo cabins, hopefully i will come out ok. 

 

Liberty group cruise rate only $100 more. .. but each i either have a cheaper cabin or its higher or both.

 

I took the last solo cabin on 9 day jewel. I sure wish jewel was here for more than 4 or 5 months. Allure supposed to come and for sure costs more. 

 

So i got 4 booked for next year. Did oasis twice, so skipping allure. I like allure but not for $1500 or more solo. 

 

I'm sure your mileage may vary

[Iamcruzin]

39 minutes ago, maxsales said:

I would like you to tell me how you are seeing prices as being up, these prices for one year from now seem steady or lower.  columns are inside, oceanview and balcony and suites. 

05APR2021	5	RCC	Independence Of The Seas	Western Caribbean	FLL	458.50	523.50	635.50	848.00
	05APR2021	5	CEL	Celebrity Infinity	Western Caribbean	MIA	802.00150 OBC	847.00150 OBC	1,077.00	1,749.00
	05APR2021	4	RCC	Mariner Of The Seas	Bahamas	PCN	570.50	650.00	730.00	964.50
	05APR2021	4	RCC	Navigator Of The Seas	Bahamas	MIA	534.00	613.50	704.00	994.00
	05APR2021	10	RCC	Quantum Of The Seas	Far East	NRT	807.50	870.50	996.50	1,528.50
	07APR2021	5	RCC	Adventure Of The Seas	Western Caribbean	GAL	385.50	503.00	639.50	1,091.00
	07APR2021	9	RCC	Jewel Of The Seas	Western Mediterranean	BCN	1,248.50	1,348.50	1,698.50	2,578.50
	07APR2021	12	CEL	Celebrity Silhouette	Transatlantic	GIG	1,609.00	1,759.00	2,409.00	4,999.00
	08APR2021	4	RCC	Brilliance Of The Seas	Western Caribbean	TPA	468.00	515.50	698.50	1,082.50
	08APR2021Closed	5	RCC	Quantum Of The Seas	Far East	SIN	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

 

The only bargain I see is a 10 day Far East itinerary. Good luck with that one.

[HicksRA]

IMO, Royal will have to raise prices to try to recoup their losses and compensate for all the 125% FCCs. The only way prices will fall is if low demand requires it. 

[Iamcruzin]

13 minutes ago, irzero said:

The demand might be seriously down and thus prices will reflect the lower demand. Nobody knows what the demand will be in the 2nd great depression that awaits post covid19 world. 

 

I think the safest thing to do given the economy and the 70 + Dr note is to keep prices the same. They have to fill the ships because the real margin is on board spending. Expect drink packages, dining packages and other services to jump in price.

[ECCruise]

Heavens, people, forget looking at pricing for cruises a year or more out.

If you think they will be able to get anywhere near those prices you are completely missing the most elementary factor:  Supply and demand.  Cruising was already over saturated and not sustainable without factoring in the dozens and dozens of ships in construction, on order or where a memorandum has been signed.

If low demand requires it?  Seriously?

 

[ECCruise]

1 minute ago, irzero said:

Because raising prices always results in increased profits when you run a fleet of plague ships. 

 

Tell me, in 2008/2009 did they jack up the prices to entice people with less money to splurge on cruises? Because the 20% unemployment rate should have no effect on bookings surely?

This.

Prices were absurdly low in 2008 and 2009.  We were booking 2 BR family suites for $175 per night, total for the both of us.  Royal Suites on Celebrity for $200 per night, total for the both of us.

IF they survive (and that is big) they will need heads in beds as quickly as possible.  And guess what?  High prices are not going to accomplish that.  You will likely see prices you haven't seen for 8 to 10 years.  The stupid prices some have been paying in the last couple years will likely never be seen again, not in the lifetime of most of us.

[Iamcruzin]

This is not the crash of 2008. This is a complete shutdown of the economy and cruising. This is something new and the cruise lines are going to have to come up with a new strategy. It’s more than just raising and lowering prices. We have to factor in how many ships will be back in service as they reopen itineraries. There  could actually be less choices available causing greater demand with less supply to spend those FCC’s. 

[firefly333]

I think prices in 2022 might be more telling. 2021 with a lot of 125% fccs competing rates might not drop like people hope.

 

This stock market crash the consumer had a lot more savings to fall back on than the one you are comparing to. 

 

Maybe you will get that suite on close in dates for $145 or maybe not. If I see those kinds of prices I'll cruise more. But so far not seeing them. I can be in Galveston in a day to cruise, but the deals mostly always seem to be florida, though I expect some out of calif. Calif worrisome enough, I'm not booking out of the west coast or flying there any time soon.

 

 

[Big_G]

Maybe we should just wait and see after ships start sailing again. I've been watching prices since Royal and Celebrity started allowing cancellations up to 48 hours before sailing and they weren't moving one way other. It will be interesting to see what the demand will be after all the bad press the lines got. They may have to work some magic to get capacity back where it was.

[John&LaLa]

24 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I think prices in 2022 might be more telling. 2021 with a lot of 125% fccs competing rates might not drop like people hope.

 

This stock market crash the consumer had a lot more savings to fall back on than the one you are comparing to. 

 

Maybe you will get that suite on close in dates for $145 or maybe not. If I see those kinds of prices I'll cruise more. But so far not seeing them. I can be in Galveston in a day to cruise, but the deals mostly always seem to be florida, though I expect some out of calif. Calif worrisome enough, I'm not booking out of the west coast or flying there any time soon.

 

 

 

Interesting observation,  I often seem to notice the gulf ports and SJ being cheaper than  east FL. They definitely show up in the GGG flyers

Edited April 5, 2020 by John&LaLa

[Biker19]

47 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

The stupid prices some have been paying in the last couple years will likely never be seen again, not in the lifetime of most of us.

The folks who were paying those stupid prices are likely to rebound fairly quickly, disposable income wise - though not sure they'll want to cruise.

[Iamcruzin]

27 minutes ago, irzero said:

You must work in public service because your grasp of business is way off the mark. 

 

They will need every ship sailing to pay the debts back. It wasnt long ago when a drinks package was 33 USD which included spirits and chops grill was 15USD per cover charge. 

 

2 weeks on Indi was as low as £780 per person and out of Southampton and a 5 night dining package was £15 per meal. Tips were 15% not 18% and they tried a hell of a lot harder and the food was edible in the MDR. 

 

They made plenty of profit and you felt like you wanted to rebook right away to go again.

 

 

Fast forward to 2020 and its £1700 14 nights and 68 USD for drinks and 55 USD to eat in chops! No deck party, No deck BBQ and you now pay 18% for someone to take the bottle cap off and pass you a beer from the fridge. 

 

Oh and you get quarantined for a month at sea stuck in your prison cell with no access to hospital and no port to call home whilst you get taken off the ship in a potential body bag. 

 

Sounds like a great environment for a price increase. 

If the first business model was profitable they would still be using it and they wouldn't have had to make the cuts and changes indicated in the second half of your post.

 I wouldn't be willing to sail on a ship in quarantine for free so that has no bearing on price.

[ECCruise]

Just now, Biker19 said:

The folks who were paying those stupid prices are likely to rebound fairly quickly, disposable income wise - though not sure they'll want to cruise.

Doubt it.  The people we have seen paying those stupid prices never should have been doing it.  Not disposable income folks at all.

[AuzzieCruiser]

5 hours ago, zekekelso said:

 

That would be good. Better still, fold them into the cruise price. 

They do that here in Australia. The price we see is the price we pay. It's a legal thing. 

Also, with the exception of the Spa, the 18% gratuity is included in the prices for drinks etc when sailing to/from Australia. So no adding 18% on. The price in the menu is the price charged.

[lovescats5]

How do you expect people to come up with $1000 pp to book a cabin?  After half the population is out of work because their work place is not necessary where will they get the money?  How will a 70+ on a set income get the deposit?  Guess you just want a certain type of person on your ship, not us retired people.