Might The CDC Require Cruise Ships to Adopt Grocery Store Traffic Rules?

[clo]

10 minutes ago, Pyrate13 said:

Some people seem to think they are the only ones informed and their opinion is the only one that counts. Oh well, too bad if they are annoyed. Their I'm right attitude is tiresome.

I try to not talk about how I think/feel/believe when it's a subject that requires facts.

[navybankerteacher]

2 minutes ago, clo said:

I try to not talk about how I think/feel/believe when it's a subject that requires facts.

 How about when think, or feel, or happen to believe that facts matter?

[Me by the Sea]

An online post is forever....Please be cognizant of how your posts are coming across.  Sometimes brevity is perceived as abrasiveness.  A terse reply can be perceived as an attack.  Remember the golden rule and be nice!

[Pyrate13]

Except no actual fact has been presented.

[clo]

21 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

 How about when think, or feel, or happen to believe that facts matter?

Totally. And I try not to share alleged facts without fact checking. I'm not always successful but it's something I do several times a day.

[ldubs]

14 hours ago, clo said:

I don't have any sense that that's happening, do you?

 

No, not in my area.  Only on CC.  

[Aquahound]

30 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

I  think one way aisles tend to reduce crowding, whether passing is allowed or not.  I agree there is a lot of overreaction.  There are also some bombastic proclamations made on the subject.  

 

 

For the life of me, I don't understand how one-way aisles are effective in the fight against COVID, but I also confess to not being an expert in the matter.  I totally agree with your comment about overreactions and bombastic proclamations.  Regurgitating info found though Google does not an expert make.  If aisles are one-way, I'll follow.  If not, I don't care.  I have my opinion on this matter but unlike some, I won't shove it down throats as fact and repeat it over and over and over and...….

[ldubs]

5 minutes ago, Aquahound said:

 

 Google does not an expert make. 

 

 

Seems to be the new scientific research method.  Sadly, since any answer is available, it is all too easy for someone to justify whatever they want to believe. 

 

If you point all the arrows to the back of the store you will avoid long checkout lines!  😄

[ontheweb]

4 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

Very little of what we are told is science is actually science.  It is mostly the OPINIONS of scientists, not science.

The Society of Actuaries, an organization I was a member of, has as it's motto a famous quote from John Ruskin:

The work of science is to substitute facts for appearances and demonstrations for impressions.

Very little of that has actuated our response.  "Observational" studies are not science.  At best they form the fodder of hypotheses.  Which then have to be tested by the scientific method.

Yes, and the hypothesis that there will be a surge in the Fall seems to repeated so many times (although it obviously could not have been tested) that many see it as fact.

 

I see it as a CYA. Here's my reasoning. There are 4 possible ways this could play out. They could predict the surge and be right. They could predict the surge and be wrong. And everyone would be happy that there really was no surge and soon forget the prediction. They could predict no surge and be right. Everyone would be happy, but this might not be good for their budget. They could predict no surge and there is a surge. In this case they get hammered for not predicting it. So they are covered if they predict it whether it happens or not, but could find themselves hammered if they don't predict it and it happens.

[navybankerteacher]

52 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Yes, and the hypothesis that there will be a surge in the Fall seems to repeated so many times (although it obviously could not have been tested) that many see it as fact.

 

I see it as a CYA. Here's my reasoning. There are 4 possible ways this could play out. They could predict the surge and be right. They could predict the surge and be wrong. And everyone would be happy that there really was no surge and soon forget the prediction. They could predict no surge and be right. Everyone would be happy, but this might not be good for their budget. They could predict no surge and there is a surge. In this case they get hammered for not predicting it. So they are covered if they predict it whether it happens or not, but could find themselves hammered if they don't predict it and it happens.

Do you think that the significant upticks in infections in states like Texas, Florida and North Carolina happening right now might mean that there will be no surge in the Fall - because it might be starting now , while it is still Spring?

[JAMESCC]

Do you think that the significant upticks in infections in states like Texas, Florida and North Carolina happening right now might mean that there will be no surge in the Fall - because it might be starting now , while it is still Spring?

Yeah I'm a bit worried about these early spikes. I'll be interested to see if anyone goes into shutdown mode again. My guess is not during summer but ya never know.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Me by the Sea]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

Yes, and the hypothesis that there will be a surge in the Fall seems to repeated so many times (although it obviously could not have been tested) that many see it as fact.

 

Hi, as a public health major in college we studied pandemics.  App. every 100 years, (since recorded public health history,) we get a pandemic that knocks off a % of the population.  While caused by different pathogens, they all had a similar pattern, including having 3 waves - each more deadly than the one before.  The increased mortality is attributed to pandemic fatigue and pathogen mutation.  
 

Dr. Fauci was trying to break the cycle with the lock down, but it was lifted too soon.  So fasten your seatbelts - it’s coming back.
 

 

[Toofarfromthesea]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

Yes, and the hypothesis that there will be a surge in the Fall seems to repeated so many times (although it obviously could not have been tested) that many see it as fact.

 

I see it as a CYA. Here's my reasoning. There are 4 possible ways this could play out. They could predict the surge and be right. They could predict the surge and be wrong. And everyone would be happy that there really was no surge and soon forget the prediction. They could predict no surge and be right. Everyone would be happy, but this might not be good for their budget. They could predict no surge and there is a surge. In this case they get hammered for not predicting it. So they are covered if they predict it whether it happens or not, but could find themselves hammered if they don't predict it and it happens.

 

I don't disagree, but the point is that all of this is politics, not science.

Listen to the experts, they tell us.  The scientists.  And then arguably the 2 most prestigious and respected medical journals in the world, The Lancet and The New England Journal of Medicine, completely humiliated themselves by each publishing a major article about hydrochloriquine studies, based solely on "data" from a company that was a complete scam and has now essentially disappeared.  And again, not a scintilla of actual science was at play.  I think "too good to check" was in play, since the bogus articles were immediately exploited for political purposes.  And although now they have admitted the articles were garbage, the original headlines and tweets are still out there just like the misimpressions people got.

I'm glad I went to school at a time where the scientific method was taught, as well as critical thinking.

[clo]

39 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

critical thinking.

^^^^^^^^^^

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, Kate Redden said:

Hi, as a public health major in college we studied pandemics.  App. every 100 years, (since recorded public health history,) we get a pandemic that knocks off a % of the population.  While caused by different pathogens, they all had a similar pattern, including having 3 waves - each more deadly than the one before.  The increased mortality is attributed to pandemic fatigue and pathogen mutation.  
 

Dr. Fauci was trying to break the cycle with the lock down, but it was lifted too soon.  So fasten your seatbelts - it’s coming back.
 

 

Have you ever read or heard the phrase past performance is not a guarantee of future performance?

 

Maybe you can say probably, but you cannot guarantee.

[CruiserBruce]

1 minute ago, ontheweb said:

Have you ever read or heard the phrase past performance is not a guarantee of future performance?

 

Maybe you can say probably, but you cannot guarantee.

And was just looking athe chart for 1918 Spanish flu. The third wave was not the worst. The second wave was far worse.

[navybankerteacher]

3 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Yeah I'm a bit worried about these early spikes. I'll be interested to see if anyone goes into shutdown mode again. My guess is not during summer but ya never know.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

One interesting tangent is the fact that US based cruising is scheduled to start August 1 - from ports in Florida and Texas , the two now most apparently impacted by the resurgence.  Cannot help wondering about the marketing challenge of:

 a) convincing people to get on airplanes to:

b) fly to states showing marked resurgence of COVID so

c) they can board ships which may or may not have workable, effective and bearable protocols to contain infection.

 

It looks like a big gamble by the cruise lines compounded by a gamble by those  states easing restrictions upon large segments of their populations who do not seem to take the threat seriously - kind of a perfect storm -  or what my Brit brother in law would call a dog’s breakfast.

 

 

[JAMESCC]

One interesting tangent is the fact that US based cruising is scheduled to start August 1 - from ports in Florida and Texas , the two now most apparently impacted by the resurgence.  Cannot help wondering about the marketing challenge of:
 a) convincing people to get on airplanes to:
b) fly to states showing marked resurgence of COVID so
c) they can board ships which may or may not have workable, effective and bearable protocols to contain infection.
 
It looks like a big gamble by the cruise lines compounded by a gamble by those  states easing restrictions upon large segments of their populations who do not seem to take the threat seriously - kind of a perfect storm -  or what my Brit brother in law would call a dog’s breakfast.
 
 

I don't think they'll be cruise this year from anywhere in the US. If they are sailing by next summer it'll be a miracle. I hate to say that but that's what it's looking like.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[navybankerteacher]

6 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

I don't think they'll be cruise this year from anywhere in the US. If they are sailing by next summer it'll be a miracle. I hate to say that but that's what it's looking like.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

I am inclined to think that there is a fair chance of a vaccine being developed and made generally available, or the virus mutating to milder strain, or herd immunity developing, or a combination of the above before next summer.  

 

What i I see as unfortunate is the tendency of people to jump the gun - quickly socializing in large numbers as soon as the emergency seems to have eased (see the results in Texas, Florida and North Carolina) and cruise line starting up in August with no demonstrated plans to control infection.

 

These impatient folk are likely to keep the crisis going longer - by trying to pretend that it is not there.

[clo]

15 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

These impatient folk are likely to keep the crisis going longer - by trying to pretend that it is not there.

And it annoys me beyond belief. 

[lenquixote66]

19 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

I am inclined to think that there is a fair chance of a vaccine being developed and made generally available, or the virus mutating to milder strain, or herd immunity developing, or a combination of the above before next summer.  

 

What i I see as unfortunate is the tendency of people to jump the gun - quickly socializing in large numbers as soon as the emergency seems to have eased (see the results in Texas, Florida and North Carolina) and cruise line starting up in August with no demonstrated plans to control infection.

 

These impatient folk are likely to keep the crisis going longer - by trying to pretend that it is not there.

In midtown Manhattan Saturday night people were defying the Governor to such a degree that he has said he may reverse the decision to open the city.

[clo]

36 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

In midtown Manhattan Saturday night people were defying the Governor to such a degree that he has said he may reverse the decision to open the city.

As well he should, IMneverHO. But I bet he won't.

[cruisemom42]

2 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

One interesting tangent is the fact that US based cruising is scheduled to start August 1 - from ports in Florida and Texas , the two now most apparently impacted by the resurgence.  Cannot help wondering about the marketing challenge of:

 a) convincing people to get on airplanes to:

b) fly to states showing marked resurgence of COVID so

c) they can board ships which may or may not have workable, effective and bearable protocols to contain infection.

 

It looks like a big gamble by the cruise lines compounded by a gamble by those  states easing restrictions upon large segments of their populations who do not seem to take the threat seriously - kind of a perfect storm -  or what my Brit brother in law would call a dog’s breakfast.

 

 

 

I've had the same thought. And speaking of a perfect storm, let us not forget that this is also at the height of the hurricane season. 

 

All the makings of a made-for-TV movie. I suggest Mark Harmon to play the aging, sincere public health official and Candace Cameron-Bure for the role of the veteran cruise director.

Edited June 16, 2020 by cruisemom42

[Cruzaholic41]

10 hours ago, Pyrate13 said:

Some people seem to think they are the only ones informed and their opinion is the only one that counts. Oh well, too bad if they are annoyed. Their I'm right attitude is tiresome.

Ever notice those 2 seem to come and go at the exact same time despite being on opposite coasts? 

[clo]

18 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

I suggest Mark Harmon to play the aging, sincere public health official

Hubba-hubba 🙂