Place an imaginary bet here , When will Celebrity start up?

[bouhunter]

19 hours ago, DrKoob said:

 

provide millions of jobs in the USA. Seattle and Alaska as well as Fort Lauderdale, Miami and Port Canaveral rely very heavily on the cruise industry. Just think what it takes to get you on a ship and all those people who are now out of work. 

 

This entire (long time) idea that cruise lines are not contributing to the American economy is bunk. 

Many jobs, yes.  Millions?  No.

[Elevatorman]

21 hours ago, DrKoob said:

 

Read the article. Still going with Fauci's thoughts (expressed in numerous places) that we will have one by the end of the year. 

 

And yes, I fully aware of the polio situation in the 50s. My mother was infected and spent months in an iron lung but science now is NOT science in the 50s. And there is another motivation, which is money. The first vaccine that works will be worth a motherlode of cash to what every company develops it. And the Gates Foundation is working on the the infrastructure to distribute the vaccine around the world when it becomes available. 

 

It is interesting to me that all those who are pessimistic about the vaccine are posting on Cruise Critic. If the cruise lines don't get back into sailing by the first of the year, there may not be any cruise lines to sail on. Most will not be able to survive very far into 2021. 

 

 

The problem with the vaccine is in the many people who refuse to be vaccinated. If parents won’t agree to vaccinate children against measles or smallpox, why should we expect everyone who wants to cruise to vaccinate. And the personal freedom advocates will sue  against being forced to do so.

I think the golden age of cruising is over.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Elevatorman

[pumpkin 11]

15 hours ago, BellKat said:

So 19 lives don’t matter? Four of those were under the age of 10. How would you feel if that were your child? Just cannot believe how you think lives of other people don’t matter.

 

Some people who have gotten sick (even those under the age of 40) have been sick for weeks or months. I was just reading yesterday about people who were declared cured & then got sick all over again. Even our friend who got it (age 41) was not as sick as some but said he didn’t wish it on anyone. 

Yeah yeah yeah… keep going on. People die everyday. If you're really that upset then bame china because they unleashed it on the world. The right public policy should have been to close our borders down Jan 1 but no that's not "ethical" apparently.

 

In fact the idea that we have to “destroy” the virus at all is absurd. The concept that we can only go back to normal when we have zero cases is also absurd.

The only virus we have eradicated on the SURFACE OF THE EARTH is small pox. That’s it. Everything else we have to live with. Swine flu, AIDS( no vaccine), West Nile, Malaria, SARS (no vaccine), the common cold, the list goes on.

Curves rise and flatten naturally on their own, but of course you won’t hear about that. We cannot destroy the virus, it is Mother Nature man made or not. This we must learn to live with it like we live with every virus.

 

So my answer is let people who want to go on a cruise go. You cannot sue a business for contracting Covid any dying on the ship (or we would have seen it) they sue for "neglect" whatever the heck that means. There is inherent risk in all life.

[TeeRick]

2 minutes ago, Elevatorman said:

The problem with the vaccine is in the many people who refuse to be vaccinated. If parents won’t agree to vaccinate children against measles or smallpox, why should we expect everyone who wants to cruise to vaccinate. And the personal freedom advocates will sue  against being forced to do so.

I think the golden age of cruising is over.

Cruising is a private vacation choice.  Not mandatory like attending school.  If it takes being vaccinated to cruise, then the companies called cruise lines can require a vaccination to come aboard their ships.  This is not public transportation.  I really don't think you will be able to sue a cruise line if they require vaccination.  You are buying their product.  You can simply choose not to buy this type of vacation if you choose not to get vaccinated, or cannot get vaccinated for whatever reason.

[pumpkin 11]

My theory of course is that they CDC wants to "hold off on reviewing the paperwork for 3-6 months" because they know if they let people go on a cruise and it isn't Armageddon, then they'll be exposed.  

[pumpkin 11]

The question now is do we even need a vaccine given the low morbidity and mortality of the virus.

[sanger727]

On 6/24/2020 at 11:26 PM, K.T.B. said:

They've already started.  A Phase I/II clinical trial began in April for the vaccine that Oxford developed and Astrazeneca is producing.

 

LINK

 

VERY promising, IMO.

 

This is exactly what concerns me about this vaccine. I"m not an anti vaxxer, have gotten all my recommended vaccines, get annual flu shot, and will get any vaccines recommended for travel. But everything about this strikes me as being too rushed. They have order commitments, mass production lined up, and begun making delivery commitments - all this for a drug that has only been through small scale human testing - no mass scale human testing for safety and absolutely no human testing to determine if it is even effective. As far as I know, we don't even have solid evidence at this point that having antibodies makes you immune. 

 

They can bring it to market, and the billions of doses can go out. That's fine. I'm low risk, I will probably give it 6 months to a year to make sure no crazy side effects emerge.  And I'm not going to feel badly about that. There have been so many historical horror stories about under studied drugs being brought to mass market. And the fact that sooooo much is already invested in this and sooooo many plans have been made around this being a success; I don't personally trust the drug company to divulge any negatives that pop up during the phase II and III trials. I suspect it will get pushed to market at this point no matter what. 

[Mercruiser]

Seems pretty obvious that there will be some cruise line (and hotel, airline, etc.) bankruptcies. But Chapter 11 bankruptcies don't necessarily mean the company ceases operations. A prominent example is American Airlines. They went through bankruptcy post 9/11. Delta, United, US Airways, Air Canada, and a bunch of others all went through bankruptcy and continued operations.

 

But even if the cruise line ceases operations, the cruise ships will survive, even if their owners do not. We got the 8 R-Class ships through the bankruptcy of Renaissance during the Gulf War. Renaissance is gone, but their ships have been sailing on as Azamara, Oceania, Princess, etc.

 

To me, the situation actually seems worse now than what I was anticipating in April. I hadn't anticipated that two months later we would still be waiting for South America, Mexico, India, Africa, etc to reach peak infection rates. Add to that, the resurgence that is happening in the USA. This does not bode well for a return to international travel (and cruising) any time soon. 

 

My guess is that Celebrity's first cruise will be mid December, for a Florida round trip to whatever Caribbean ports are open. But general cruising to lots of countries will not start to ramp up until April 2021. I expect the Celebrity Australia and South America 2020-21 cruise seasons will be cancelled because the governments involved will not have opened international tourist travel in time for cruises to be committed.

 

That's my prediction. And I guarantee that I am wrong, because "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -  Yogi Berra.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Mercruiser

[PTC DAWG]

2 hours ago, bouhunter said:

Many jobs, yes.  Millions?  No.

Found this, figures from 2018..

 

Industry Hosts 12.68 Million U.S. Passengers in the Last Year & Generates 421,711 Jobs Domestically

 

2018 Economic Impact Analysis found the cruise industry in the U.S. had an economic impact of over $52.7 billion in total contributions in 2018 alone, marking an increase of over 10 percent since 2016.

[Pinboy]

13 minutes ago, Mercruiser said:

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -  Yogi Berra.

Yogi was smart-- I guarantee he wouldn't read and read, and read again the hundreds of posts relating to the same " xxx ing " subject. 

Here's what Yogi told me just last night ---

" Pinboy,   If you ask me anything I don’t know, I’m not going to answer.  So, when cruising starts up again , either go according to the regulations ( that means rules ) or stay home."

How about we move on to something to get our BP up --- Gratuities , Buffets , Spa sales pitches , " Strange " Cruise Ship passengers , or contests/prizes I won on cruise ships ( chocolate covered strawberries not included ).

 

 

 

[phoenix_dream]

2 hours ago, PTC DAWG said:

Found this, figures from 2018..

 

Industry Hosts 12.68 Million U.S. Passengers in the Last Year & Generates 421,711 Jobs Domestically

 

2018 Economic Impact Analysis found the cruise industry in the U.S. had an economic impact of over $52.7 billion in total contributions in 2018 alone, marking an increase of over 10 percent since 2016.

Interesting.  I think what it boils down to is that we can identify jobs directly either with the cruise industry, or directly connected with the cruise industry (such as travel agents), as well as less easily identified such as various staff in the port cities such as restaurant and hotel workers.  That's likely how we come up with the 421,711 figure.  But if you look at the total economic impact, which is huge (at least to me $52.7 billion is huge), there are many, many more jobs impacted.  That money being spent is spent somewhere, and that somewhere requires workers to provide whatever that something is that the money is being spent on.  So bottom line, I think one can realistically say that the actual affected employees truly are somewhere in the millions, perhaps the low millions.

[DrKoob]

6 hours ago, bouhunter said:

Many jobs, yes.  Millions?  No.

 

According to CLIA, there are 275,000 people working directly for the cruise lines in the US. Now add in every travel provider that gets you to the cruise, every truck driver who drives supplies to the ships, every farmer who grows things that they sell to the cruise lines and you get to a million pretty quickly. Not to mention the port employees who don't work for the cruise line and even my travel agent who makes about $60K a year booking cruises. My guess is the cruise industry accounts for more than a million related jobs.

 

It's like here in Seattle with Boeing or Microsoft. They only employ X amount of people but when you add in all the companies who feed into and off of them, the number goes up pretty quickly. 

[DrKoob]

3 hours ago, pumpkin 11 said:

The question now is do we even need a vaccine given the low morbidity and mortality of the virus.

 

Your comments have been quite interesting. How do you feel about them today as Texas and Florida start to shut down again? We are in for a long haul on this and the morbidity and mortality rates are fine...until you are one of them.

[DrKoob]

3 hours ago, Elevatorman said:

The problem with the vaccine is in the many people who refuse to be vaccinated. If parents won’t agree to vaccinate children against measles or smallpox, why should we expect everyone who wants to cruise to vaccinate. And the personal freedom advocates will sue  against being forced to do so.

I think the golden age of cruising is over.

 

While I totally agree about personal freedom you would still have that. You are free to get vaccinated or to stay home. It's the same with masks. You are free to not where one but if you don't, you are free to stay home. I have no problem with having to show a vaccination certificate to board a cruise ship.

[pumpkin 11]

42 minutes ago, DrKoob said:

 

Your comments have been quite interesting. How do you feel about them today as Texas and Florida start to shut down again? We are in for a long haul on this and the morbidity and mortality rates are fine...until you are one of them.

"OH MY GOD PEOPLE ARE TESTING POSITIVE, WHAT EVER WILL WE DO?" lol what do you want me to say? 

[C-Dragons]

4 hours ago, PTC DAWG said:

Found this, figures from 2018..

 

Industry Hosts 12.68 Million U.S. Passengers in the Last Year & Generates 421,711 Jobs Domestically

 

2018 Economic Impact Analysis found the cruise industry in the U.S. had an economic impact of over $52.7 billion in total contributions in 2018 alone, marking an increase of over 10 percent since 2016.

Detailed information on this:

 

https://cruising.org/news-and-research/press-room/2019/november/cruise-industry-contributes-nearly-53-billion-to-us-economy-in-2018

 

https://cruising.org/-/media/research-updates/research/contribution-of-the-international-cruise-industry-to-the-us-economy-2018.pdf

Very interesting reading.

Edited June 26, 2020 by C-Dragons

[DrKoob]

31 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

"OH MY GOD PEOPLE ARE TESTING POSITIVE, WHAT EVER WILL WE DO?" lol what do you want me to say? 

 

No people are being hospitalized with ventilators down their throats. You people are getting sick and infecting their mothers, fathers and grandparents. 

 

What do I want you to say. How about if one person dies, it's a bad thing and your wanting to go on a cruise does not outweigh someone else getting sick or dying. That would be a good start. Your attitude since this all started (this thread) is that it's OK for some people to die from this. It's not. Not when it's preventable. 

[pumpkin 11]

9 minutes ago, DrKoob said:

 

No people are being hospitalized with ventilators down their throats. You people are getting sick and infecting their mothers, fathers and grandparents. 

 

What do I want you to say. How about if one person dies, it's a bad thing and your wanting to go on a cruise does not outweigh someone else getting sick or dying. That would be a good start. Your attitude since this all started (this thread) is that it's OK for some people to die from this. It's not. Not when it's preventable. 

Why do you care what I think? I'm not a policy maker (thank god right?) 

[Benjo8]

Consider this article from today's NYT. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/travel/coronavirus-cruises-reopening.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage

[hcat]

59 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Why do you care what I think? I'm not a policy maker (thank god right?) 

Ignore button ..batter up!

[Pinboy]

1 hour ago, pumpkin 11 said:

"OH MY GOD PEOPLE ARE TESTING POSITIVE, WHAT EVER WILL WE DO?" lol what do you want me to say? 

Best to say nothing more. 

Yea, yea, I know , you got your  " rights  " .

 

[phoenix_dream]

1 hour ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Why do you care what I think? I'm not a policy maker (thank god right?) 

finally something we agree on!

[Mercruiser]

Please do not feed the troll!

Edited June 26, 2020 by Mercruiser

[Quo Vadis?]

A bit of news from Australia.. for those thinking of booking:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-26/morrison-signals-australian-borders-may-be-closed-until-mid-2021

[Dr. Pam]

4 hours ago, DrKoob said:

 

No people are being hospitalized with ventilators down their throats. You people are getting sick and infecting their mothers, fathers and grandparents. 

 

What do I want you to say. How about if one person dies, it's a bad thing and your wanting to go on a cruise does not outweigh someone else getting sick or dying. That would be a good start. Your attitude since this all started (this thread) is that it's OK for some people to die from this. It's not. Not when it's preventable. 

Hi again,

 

We met you and your wife on the Mardi Gras cruise just before this Pandemic.  My DH and myself as health professionals have had a very difficult time with other posters disregarding the absolute devastation that is occurring to our loved ones.  I support your posts and hope that because of these threads that more people will be aware of masks, personal protection and curtailing normal activity until we have a vaccination.  Please folks......these are scary times.  Stay apart but stick together. PLEASE!

 

Take care,

 

Pam

Edited June 27, 2020 by Dr. Pam