CDC wants U.S. travelers not to cruise - not surprising

[Arizona Wildcat]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

Surely you are not suggesting that 0 tests means no Covid.

 

There is not exactly a direct correlation between testing and cases. You need to factor in positivity rate which currently is increasing faster than the number of tests (Again).

Of course not.

 

What I am saying is some thousands of students arrived at the local University from all over.  They were screened on arrival.  Under a dozen were reported as Ill with any symptoms.  Within 2 weeks they were tested multiple times and after multiple parties lots of positive tests.  Under a dozen required any medical attention.

My problem is the students showed a 15% positivity rate - but - test positive 3 times shows and it shows as 3 cases.

If appropriate behavior ruled - we have a mask order and social distancing in classroom etc - would most of these have been tested?  Why aren't tests reported on a standard basis?  Things like this make the situation look much worse than reality.  We have adequate hospital beds etc.

We also continue a ban on visits to elderly homes with no new cases in a month.  COVID is a dangerous virus, but the situation has changed from March when it killed many elderly to a virus mostly here in those 18-30.

There is a correlation between tests and cases of about .70.  Not direct, but significant statistically.

 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Arizona Wildcat

[evandbob]

Surely, with 75% of our US States experiencing COVID cases rising and Europe being out of control, most sane cruisers would not want to be on a ship with restrictions on behavior, excursions and ports.

 

COVID makes the rules and until mitigation and prevention gets the virus under control, as much as I want to resume cruising, I realize it's just a pipe dream for now.  Health and love are this family's prize assets, and cruising and travel can be relegated to either a memory or a future thought.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

My problem is the students showed a 15% positivity rate - but - test positive 3 times shows and it shows as 3 cases.

 

One problem I have is if someone says 15,000 tests, that doesn't mean 15,000 people. It is likely significantly less. One can manipulate stats to support any point one wants to make.

 

1 hour ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

If appropriate behavior ruled - we have a mask order and social distancing in classroom etc - would most of these have been tested?  Why aren't tests reported on a standard basis?  Things like this make the situation look much worse than reality.  We have adequate hospital beds etc.

Many places are running out of beds, and beds that would normally be filled with elective procedures, aren't.

 

1 hour ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

We also continue a ban on visits to elderly homes with no new cases in a month.  COVID is a dangerous virus, but the situation has changed from March when it killed many elderly to a virus mostly here in those 18-30.

 

They have to be very careful with nursing homes - we are entering flu season, and even seasonal flu spreads like wildfire through nursing homes - they don't need covid on top of that.

[pe4all]

10 hours ago, evandbob said:

Surely, with 75% of our US States experiencing COVID cases rising and Europe being out of control, most sane cruisers would not want to be on a ship with restrictions on behavior, excursions and ports.

 

COVID makes the rules and until mitigation and prevention gets the virus under control, as much as I want to resume cruising, I realize it's just a pipe dream for now.  Health and love are this family's prize assets, and cruising and travel can be relegated to either a memory or a future thought.

I am more than willing to forfeit my March cruise deposit, obc, payments, etc. to keep myself and my family safe.  We have already had 3 cruises cancelled, trip to Disney cancelled 3x (rescheduled for May 2021) and a bucket trip to Galapagos cancelled. (that one hurt!)  We have also cancelled going down to our FLL condo numerous times since January (dh still works and cannot quarentine 14 days)  and will try again for Thanksgiving, and if not then, Christmas break.  With age and pre-existing med conditions we do not want to risk getting sick, and can't hope we are asymptomatic if we do get covid.  NY now has 44 states on their "mandatory travel quarentine."  Our big trips are to the grocery store and Drs. appts - lol!

[ProgRockCruiser]

11 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

My problem is the students showed a 15% positivity rate - but - test positive 3 times shows and it shows as 3 cases.

Here in FL, and I would assume in other places (maybe not where you are located), COVID case numbers are reported as people testing positive for the first time.  So if you get tested three times, and pop positive all three times, it only counts once.

[sammee]

3 hours ago, pe4all said:

I am more than willing to forfeit my March cruise deposit, obc, payments, etc. to keep myself and my family safe.  We have already had 3 cruises cancelled, trip to Disney cancelled 3x (rescheduled for May 2021) and a bucket trip to Galapagos cancelled. (that one hurt!)  We have also cancelled going down to our FLL condo numerous times since January (dh still works and cannot quarentine 14 days)  and will try again for Thanksgiving, and if not then, Christmas break.  With age and pre-existing med conditions we do not want to risk getting sick, and can't hope we are asymptomatic if we do get covid.  NY now has 44 states on their "mandatory travel quarentine."  Our big trips are to the grocery store and Drs. appts - lol!

Hi neighbor, I'm in NJ, 2 cruises, one weekend B&B and a trip to Florida all cancelled. We were going to try and go around Christmas but numbers are rising and my husbands job won't lift the 14 day quarantine & test any time soon. I can't even leave the state. My husbands employer has a question/answer form every morning before entering. If he says I left the state he will have to quarantine, guilty by association. 

[c-boy]

" There is always hope, but we as a country need to unify and start TODAY to put mitigation in place, it ain't going to be mitigated by WARP speed vaccination, it will be suffocated by unification of purpose of the people."

 

since it appears that " mitigation " is not working and the public in general refuses to be corralled, I'm going with mandatory vaccinations. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by c-boy

[BlerkOne]

Just now, c-boy said:

" There is always hope, but we as a country need to unify and start TODAY to put mitigation in place, it ain't going to be mitigated by WARP speed vaccination, it will be suffocated by unification of purpose of the people."

 

since it appears that " mitigation " is not working and the public in general refuses to be corralled, I'm going with mandatory vaccinations. 

If mandatory masks offend a few what do you think mandatory (and suspect) vaccines would do? Although states could legally require vaccines.

[pe4all]

2 hours ago, sammee said:

Hi neighbor, I'm in NJ, 2 cruises, one weekend B&B and a trip to Florida all cancelled. We were going to try and go around Christmas but numbers are rising and my husbands job won't lift the 14 day quarantine & test any time soon. I can't even leave the state. My husbands employer has a question/answer form every morning before entering. If he says I left the state he will have to quarantine, guilty by association. 

He would have to quarantine because the questionaire  probably asks if he has been in contact with anyone who has traveled within 14 days.   My Drs., and even my hairdresser have a survey like that before we enter.  When cruising during winter flu season CCL has also handed out such surveys before boarding.   I am looking into taking a rapid covid test in FLL if we get down there for Thanksgiving, and another when we get back to NY so maybe dh won't have to quarantine.  I will still quarantine.

 

2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

If mandatory masks offend a few what do you think mandatory (and suspect) vaccines would do? Although states could legally require vaccines.

NY requires certain vaccines before entering school/college.  However, there are ways to get around vaccinating someone - religious beliefs, health issues, etc.  Many people I have spoken with - educated people - think 1.  the media is sensationalizing the covid outbreak, and 2. No way in heck would they take a vaccine - safe or not.  Maybe they should have gone to NYC and seen the refrigerated trucks that were turned into morgues in March to hold all the bodies.  

[WhaleTailFlCruiser]

CDC is under too much pressure right now from all sides on this, this is just gonna replace the no sail order. As they probably just let the expire on Saturday. 

[sammee]

35 minutes ago, pe4all said:

He would have to quarantine because the questionaire  probably asks if he has been in contact with anyone who has traveled within 14 days.   My Drs., and even my hairdresser have a survey like that before we enter.  When cruising during winter flu season CCL has also handed out such surveys before boarding.   I am looking into taking a rapid covid test in FLL if we get down there for Thanksgiving, and another when we get back to NY so maybe dh won't have to quarantine.  I will still quarantine.

 

That's exactly what it is. So he can't just say "I stayed home, my wife went without me", lol. That's an option, but the way his paperwork was written explaining his daily checkin. Both were required. I told him to stop messing with them, it's not worth losing a job over.

 

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, pe4all said:

 

 

NY requires certain vaccines before entering school/college.  However, there are ways to get around vaccinating someone - religious beliefs, health issues, etc.  Many people I have spoken with - educated people - think 1.  the media is sensationalizing the covid outbreak, and 2. No way in heck would they take a vaccine - safe or not.  Maybe they should have gone to NYC and seen the refrigerated trucks that were turned into morgues in March to hold all the bodies.  

The religious exemption for school children was eliminated at least as far as for the measles vaccine after an outbreak of measles caused by people abusing that exemption. The law was of course challenged in court, but the court upheld the law as a necessary use of state power for the health and welfare of the population.

[Arizona Wildcat]

8 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Here in FL, and I would assume in other places (maybe not where you are located), COVID case numbers are reported as people testing positive for the first time.  So if you get tested three times, and pop positive all three times, it only counts once.

Sadly various agencies do not report in the same manner or communicate well.  For example in Maricopa County (Phoenix) death certificates are recorded when received from the funeral home.  Often a 60 day delay.  COVID numbers go through Arizona Dept of Health.  Collection methods and numbers have been changed at least twice.  In Pima (Tucson) reporting goes from the testing site to the county health department except state agencies report directly to ADHealth.  Death recording here has a 7 day or less lag time.  I have no idea why.

How are tests reported.  If athletes are tested many times is every test reported?  The NFL gives thousands of tests.  Where and how are they recorded.

Numbers are a bit crazy.  If one is testing at say JFK, are those tests are results sent to NY or to the state's of residence.

My point is health etc is a state matter for regulation and it seems it is reported differently depending on who is doing the testing or recording.

Last, giving percentages for increases can give a distorted picture.  A 50% increase in one state might be 500 cases. While 5% in another. 

And I am absolutely not suggesting in any way that COVID is not an out of control pandemic.  Yes in some places hospital beds, but most are fine.  I get that El Paso has set up a 50 bed center, but Ft. Hood has beds within a few miles.

[zqvol]

On 10/26/2020 at 1:11 PM, pe4all said:

Just out today.   https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23757-cdc-defer-all-cruise-travel.html

Anyone who would elect to cruise at this time simply refuses to try to understand the science behind the pandemic, and instead is relying on political rhetoric that is passing as news. Be safe people, this mess is not over and is not going to be over for at least another year.

[chipmaster]

On 10/28/2020 at 8:17 AM, c-boy said:

" There is always hope, but we as a country need to unify and start TODAY to put mitigation in place, it ain't going to be mitigated by WARP speed vaccination, it will be suffocated by unification of purpose of the people."

 

since it appears that " mitigation " is not working and the public in general refuses to be corralled, I'm going with mandatory vaccinations. 

 

Vaccines alone will NOT be enough, efficacy, need for multiple dose, and the large # of people who refuse putting something in their body versus on their body.    I am more sympathetic to the people who are skeptical of the WARP speed results and less so those who shun masks for science, and those for freedom, just call them selfish and stupid.

[bitemyfly]

CDC, FDA, REPUB, DEMS, CLIA , CC POSTERS , meetings, mandates or feelings ..

The only thing that gets us back to cruising and traveling pre COVID is  effective therapeutics and a vaccine. 

Most( not all) people interested in travel and leisure will risk sickness if it’s not serious- how many of us would board ship that previously had a noro outbreak, or perhaps went to Distant lands that needed to get special immunizations ? Reasonable risk reward .

Take away children under the age of 17 , and carnival cruise lines age put many of its cruisers in risk age , most of them won’t risk it until there is reasonable way out. 

The young have very little risk , from what I see and analysts projections it’s  that not enough to carry the lines foward and out of this mess.

I do know if we use the same process to come up with meds for other virus’s   travel &leisure is changed forever . We can’t wait for the miraculous speed of aids drugs that took way to long - a decade 

I pray for warp speed or any other projects that uses different process to speed up producing safe and working meds .. No matter who is behind it or is leading it. 

The polio thru aids efforts simply are not good enough. 

[travelhound]

On 10/26/2020 at 12:48 PM, ColeThornton said:

This is misleading.  The CDC resent a notice that was from 17 Mar.  There is nothing new.

Exactly 

[bunnyette]

Canada has put cruises on its no travel list plus we have to quarantine for 14 days after returning from another country (including the USA).  I have a fabulous cruise to Iceland, Scotland & Northern Ireland booked for June - I’m doubtful it’ll sail...but fingers crossed.

[firefly333]

11 minutes ago, bunnyette said:

Canada has put cruises on its no travel list plus we have to quarantine for 14 days after returning from another country (including the USA).  I have a fabulous cruise to Iceland, Scotland & Northern Ireland booked for June - I’m doubtful it’ll sail...but fingers crossed.

I think ny or its nyc has 41 states who cant enter without quarantine... though I'm not much interested in seeing New York right now lol. I dont know how this affects them travelling to those states.

 

It might be nyc. As they were talking nyc tourist dollars. 

 

Tbh if I was travelling I'd want some parks or outside places with animals or sun shine. Places where I could be outside and its warm.

Edited October 29, 2020 by firefly333

[pe4all]

On 10/26/2020 at 1:48 PM, ColeThornton said:

This is misleading.  The CDC resent a notice that was from 17 Mar.  There is nothing new.

Actually, the 227,000 deaths are something "new."   And even if that number was over-estimated by 1/2, counting in people who died of heart attacks, other medical conditions, etc., over 100,000 deaths since March should be concerning, with covid numbers and hospitalizations in many states already rising before winter even sets in.

[pe4all]

9 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I think ny or its nyc has 41 states who cant enter without quarantine... though I'm not much interested in seeing New York right now lol. I dont know how this affects them travelling to those states.

 

It might be nyc. As they were talking nyc tourist dollars. 

 

Tbh if I was travelling I'd want some parks or outside places with animals or sun shine. Places where I could be outside and its warm.

We are actually up to 44 states on the NY must quarantine list.  The only reason New Jersey and Connecticut aren't on the list is because of all the workers that use the highways, trains, etc. between states to get to work here. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by pe4all

[firefly333]

9 minutes ago, pe4all said:

We are actually up to 44 states on the NY must quarantine list.  The only reason New Jersey and Connecticut aren't on the list is because of all the workers that use the highways, trains, etc. between states to get to work here. 

How does this affect those living there? Can you do the annual snowbird thing a lot of NYers do and go to florida this winter and come back, or do you have to quarantine coming home?

[pe4all]

17 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

How does this affect those living there? Can you do the annual snowbird thing a lot of NYers do and go to florida this winter and come back, or do you have to quarantine coming home?

We can leave NY, but upon returning from any of the 44 states now on the list must do a mandatory 14 day quarantine upon return to NY.  People are getting by this by driving back from Florida.  We have a condo in FLL that we have not been able to get to since covid began (8 months now) due to the impossibility of dh quarantining for 2 weeks upon return and missing 2 weeks of work. I am retired and could quarantine, but with age and a pacemaker I am also nervous about going to Florida- even wearing a mask and trying to socially distance.  

Edited October 29, 2020 by pe4all

[seaman11]

3 minutes ago, fyree39 said:

Nope.

why not? as long as they quarantine after they come back, i dont see why not. 

[Arizona Wildcat]

5 hours ago, fyree39 said:

I'm just saying the restrictions are in place. And the fact that you and I both know no one will actually quarantine, this is going to get worse. It's not like the police are using surveillance to ensure compliance.

If this got really bad maybe a permit system like Victoria Australia could be put in place.  In a very oversimplified explanation - to go anyplace except doctor caregiver essential work or grocery you had to obtain a permit.