What are the chances of Fall Cruises being suspended?

[Hlitner]

8 hours ago, gerryuk said:

Don't worry about MSC, they are going no ware. They are probably the safest, out of all the cruise lines to stay afloat. MSC cruises are just a small part of MSC. MSC are the worlds second largest container ship business, you will have no worries sailing with them. 

Guess I have been around the finance/economics world long enough to understand that nobody is too big to fail.  Yes, MSC has deep pockets because of its lucrative Container Ship business.  But it also is the only major cruise line that is family owned which can be both a blessing and a curse when it comes to needed a lot of capital.  All the cruise lines are now bleeding cash at a massive rate and their ability to survive will ultimately be determined by how long the shut down and subsequent slow down continues.  MSC's primary cruise market is in Europe and somewhat centered on Italy....and this is not a good thing during the current crises.  MSC also has a lot of new financial obligations due to its progressive expansion and ship building program.  We hope for the best for MSC.

 

Hank

[sfaaa]

MSC has a secret weapon other cruise lines don't have. It's owner/founder and his immediate family are all billionaires. Their personal guarantees would be like gold to any creditor on money loaned to MSC. 

[clo]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Guess I have been around the finance/economics world long enough to understand that nobody is too big to fail.  Yes, MSC has deep pockets because of its lucrative Container Ship business.  But it also is the only major cruise line that is family owned which can be both a blessing and a curse when it comes to needed a lot of capital.  All the cruise lines are now bleeding cash at a massive rate and their ability to survive will ultimately be determined by how long the shut down and subsequent slow down continues.  MSC's primary cruise market is in Europe and somewhat centered on Italy....and this is not a good thing during the current crises.  MSC also has a lot of new financial obligations due to its progressive expansion and ship building program.  We hope for the best for MSC.

 

Hank

I wonder if they'd say to heck with this. And leave the pleasure cruising business and stick with container only.

[sfaaa]

7 minutes ago, clo said:

I wonder if they'd say to heck with this. And leave the pleasure cruising business and stick with container only.

Extremely wealthy people have an image to protect and egos as big as a mega cruise ship. They don't accept or admit failure easily. 

[clo]

23 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

Extremely wealthy people have an image to protect and egos as big as a mega cruise ship. They don't accept or admit failure easily. 

They also didn't become billionaires by being stupid with their money. With an already profitable business, I'd sure consider it. BTW curious how you know this about the "extremely wealthy." I'm thinking of Warren Buffet and Bill Gates off hand.

[sfaaa]

Google the owner. He alone has a net worth of $8.4B.

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, clo said:

I wonder if they'd say to heck with this. And leave the pleasure cruising business and stick with container only.

It would be more likely they would sell-off the cruise ship division, but after this virus mess it might be difficult to find a buyer.  The cruise industry will need to spend a lot of money and effort to rebuild their image.

 

Hank

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, sfaaa said:

MSC has a secret weapon other cruise lines don't have. It's owner/founder and his immediate family are all billionaires. Their personal guarantees would be like gold to any creditor on money loaned to MSC. 

One of the ways people get to be, and keep on being, billionaires is that they know when to cut their losses and write off bad investments.   

[clo]

3 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

It would be more likely they would sell-off the cruise ship division, but after this virus mess it might be difficult to find a buyer.  The cruise industry will need to spend a lot of money and effort to rebuild their image.

 

Hank

 I was just talking to a friend and we're in agreement that we're not even getting on a long airplane flight any time soon.

[TravelinGert]

On 3/29/2020 at 7:22 PM, aurora_borealis said:

There are also likely to be multiple waves. China is through a single wave right now.

 

This is based on history - even with social distancing measures, the Spanish flu of 1918 had two peaks. Given the nature of this virus, it is highly probable we will see a second and maybe even later wave until sufficient people have had the virus, or there is a vaccine.

 

Port temperature checks are theatre for a virus that can take 2 weeks to incubate.

The Spanish flu didn't have two peaks everywhere. Some states opened up quickly and had a second wave, other areas didn't.

 

Still don't know how long this will take though. I should be just off a cruise right now. Fingers crossed for the cruise we have booked for October, but I figure at best it is a 50/50 chance.

Edited April 4, 2020 by TravelinGert

[Nic6318]

11 hours ago, clo said:

They also didn't become billionaires by being stupid with their money. With an already profitable business, I'd sure consider it. BTW curious how you know this about the "extremely wealthy." I'm thinking of Warren Buffet and Bill Gates off hand.

 

Hi

 

Yes. But if their pockets are deep enough and there is a cruise industry after this is behind us they might be able to pick up properties for pennies on the dollar. That has traditionally been a way for millionaires to become billionaires. In this case billionaires becoming zillionaires. Cruising is still a sideline for them (similar to hobbies for the rest of us), their core business will continue to be required and profitable (even more so with fuel prices much lower).

[sfaaa]

11 hours ago, Nic6318 said:

 

 Cruising is still a sideline for them (similar to hobbies for the rest of us), their core business will continue to be required and profitable (even more so with fuel prices much lower).

Yeah, like a bragging right over cocktails at the billionaire club dinner party. Rich people often buy or own glitzy assets to show off to the world and not necessary because it is a money making investment.

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, sfaaa said:

Yeah, like a bragging right over cocktails at the billionaire club dinner party. Rich people often buy or own glitzy assets to show off to the world and not necessary because it is a money making investment.

But, in the long run, they are not going to hang onto a long-term money loser. At some point they will decide to cut their losses and get out.  Rich people are not stupid - if they were, they would not keep on being rich —- yes bragging is fun, but really successful people got to be succesful (and stay that way) by keeping their eyes on the ball.

[Toofarfromthesea]

12 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

But, in the long run, they are not going to hang onto a long-term money loser. At some point they will decide to cut their losses and get out.  Rich people are not stupid - if they were, they would not keep on being rich —- yes bragging is fun, but really successful people got to be succesful (and stay that way) by keeping their eyes on the ball.

 

In general that is true but it also depends on HOW they got rich.  And how LONG they have been rich.

[ldubs]

On 4/4/2020 at 6:14 PM, sfaaa said:

Yeah, like a bragging right over cocktails at the billionaire club dinner party. Rich people often buy or own glitzy assets to show off to the world and not necessary because it is a money making investment.

 

I can't imagine how anyone, even someone with an ostentatious streak a mile long, would consider cruise line stock as a glitzy asset to show off.  But, I'm not a billionaire, so what do I know.  😄

[sanger727]

I don't think the "cruise industry" is doomed. The current major players may be in their current configurations. However, there are enough cruise ships built that would need to be liquidated in the event of a bankruptcy and enough wealthy players out there to pick up the pieces. Maybe virgin will suddenly expand their vision and take over some old carnival or royal ships. But a cruise industry will re-emerge from this in some shape or form. There's too much product on the market to dissemble all the ships and there was too much demand for anyone to consider this profitable. The coronavirus will not be forever. Please travel will resume someday. 

[SRF]

On 3/30/2020 at 3:34 PM, leaveitallbehind said:

How can anyone know? Did anyone know before it was announced that mid-March through mid April would be suspended?  Did anyone know before it was announced that the suspension would be extended to mid-May?

 

Any consensus on future extensions would only be a WAG at this point.  Everyone surely has an opinion but what value is there in speculation based on that?

 

We will all just have to wait and see - all of our crystal balls are broken.

 

I KNOW. 

 

Some where between 0% and 100%.

 

😄 😄

 

[JMorris271]

I am guessing that when the cruise ships start cruising again, all of the previously purchased souvinier T's will be worn out, shot glasses broken and the local island shops will again make a killing.🤑

Edited April 9, 2020 by JMorris271

[sail7seas]

On 3/29/2020 at 8:06 PM, Hoopster95 said:

 

Only my sole and totally unscientific opinion.... 

China ramped up and peaked about late Jan, stayed peak until only recently (that's two months approximately)

 

North America is peaking in the next 2-4 weeks, so let's say end of April.

Will stay peaked, like China for example, let's assume for another two months. That takes us to end of June.

 

Now we have to see cases dissipate and people get well. Follow China, Italy, et al to see when they start "opening" things up with their people getting better and then you'll get somewhat of an idea of when things may "open up" again in North America. Keep in mind they're ahead of us by a couple of months. 

 

My personal prediction is no cruising until at the very minimum September. 

 

Not everyone is totally accepting of anything China reports these days.......  😕

[SRF]

On 3/30/2020 at 3:34 PM, leaveitallbehind said:

How can anyone know? Did anyone know before it was announced that mid-March through mid April would be suspended?  Did anyone know before it was announced that the suspension would be extended to mid-May?

 

Any consensus on future extensions would only be a WAG at this point.  Everyone surely has an opinion but what value is there in speculation based on that?

 

We will all just have to wait and see - all of our crystal balls are broken.

 

I KNOW. 

 

Some where between 0% and 100%.

 

😄 😄

 

[SRF]

One issue is that in the US we have a lot of smaller sections, that are handling things differently.  In China, they had a very hard policy and implemented it across the country.

 

So here, we have X city or state, that is peaking this week, but Y city or state is 2 weeks behind.

 

Plus, some areas are not taking maximum precautions.  So they may be later, or longer.

 

And, many people in the US are flat not paying attention and doing what they should.

[clo]

1 hour ago, SRF said:

And, many people in the US are flat not paying attention and doing what they should.

ABSOLUTELY. MAYBE 20% of people in Costco today had on masks and, boy, did the others get belligerent when it was pointed out. BTW our governor has ordered it but didn't make it a legal mandate. I've written him and our mayor. 

[AF-1]

Just to put things into light;  I see a glass half full so I see the cruise industry starting up again by Oct.  Maybe not in full swing; but it will start back up.  Anything earlier than Oct is a win/win

[cruisemom42]

12 hours ago, clo said:

ABSOLUTELY. MAYBE 20% of people in Costco today had on masks and, boy, did the others get belligerent when it was pointed out. BTW our governor has ordered it but didn't make it a legal mandate. I've written him and our mayor. 

 

But where are we supposed to get masks when none are available?  CDC did NOT recommend their use in well people until a week ago. Now I cannot find any anywhere...well not anywhere I'd trust. (You know there's always that one seller on Amazon doling out 10 masks and shipping them in baggies.... )

[c-boy]

38 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

But where are we supposed to get masks when none are available?  CDC did NOT recommend their use in well people until a week ago. Now I cannot find any anywhere...well not anywhere I'd trust. (You know there's always that one seller on Amazon doling out 10 masks and shipping them in baggies.... )

Bingo