It's even worse than we thought

[npcl]

42 minutes ago, Tapi said:

I’m truly hopeful that there have been enough advances in medicine during the last 100 years to prevent a repeat of the 1918 pandemic. 🤞🏼

Doesn't look like it.  Still a virus.  Still pretty much not treatable except for palliative care. This one happens to be worse in both death rate and percentage requiring hospitalization than the Spanish flu.  Only path is to keep number of infections as low as possible (of course that was done then as well).

[Iamcruzin]

The only people who are panicking over the speckulation are those who haven't come to terms with what's going on in the world with Covid and the economy.  We could have reacted sooner but everyone thought it was media hype and look where we are today.   The writing's on the wall. The cruise industry will be the last to open up. We haven't even got to the point where non essential service and schools can open. Everything will come back slowly and social distancing will be a part of life for a while.  The cruise industry with their long history of promoting the spread of disease will be the last to come back.

[Captain_Morgan]

Anyone who believes that a modern cruise ship (even those 20+ years old) can just be parked and the occupants turn off the lights and close windows/doors like a holiday cottage are not accepting the gravity of the operation.

 

The likelihood that ships will be laid up with a skeleton crew on 'warm layup' for lack of better terms is the most sensible and realistic outcome as the cost to reopen a ship that has been completely shuttered would no doubt be much greater than the cost to maintain it in a bare bones operating scheme.  Add to the fact, these ships are not like a classic car that can be left in a garage under a cover for extended periods of time and even those currently in a port need to go to sea regularly to discharge treated grey water.

[Mackenzie1]

11 hours ago, npcl said:

Yes but in the 10Q they have far more current debt than current cash.  If you run the number, including an estimate (from CCL) that they are getting 45% of customers taking FCC instead of cash refunds you get around 4 billion left after considering the 2.8 from the revolving line of credit (that is what remained when they tapped it) plus the 6.25 billion from the recent offering.

 

Reconciling these two statements in Carnival's Form 10-Q is a challenge:

 

1.  The volume and pace of cash refunds could have a material adverse effect on our liquidity and capital resources; and

 

2.  Based on our assumptions and estimates, we believe that the liquidity will be sufficient to fund our liquidity requirements over at least the next 12 months, which includes cash refunds of customer deposits.

 

I hope we have some financial geniuses at Carnival who can work all of this out.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Mackenzie1

[Daniel A]

16 hours ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

I know, right??  I have a few domestic trips planned ... but, if they don't happen.  There is always my backyard ... hopefully with my family!  

I have a 20 day Train/bus tour booked for the end of September.  I think we well likely cancel as the trip would involve 4 different air segments, train travel and 7 days on a tour bus.  Even if the "curve gets flattened" that only helps the hospital situation - it doesn't make any claims about eliminating the risk of covid-19 infection after the curve is flattened.  It's a shame as this is a 'bucket list' trip to various National Parks which we started working on two years ago.  Oh well, we still have the plans on paper - now we'll need to see how gentle Delta will be with us cancelling 4 flights in September.   

[dchip]

19 hours ago, Cruise Raider said:

Well, some of you all have been stating that cruises won't be back until next year ... and yikes, this article kind of supports that theory!  It just hit me like a ton of bricks.  If true, that will be 4 canceled cruises for us in one year ... and the one in January, I took a move over offer ... so basically, it could be five!  

Well, it's just safer to stay at home and hope for next year.  I will keep a sliver of hope for the end of the year but won't expect too much.  

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/cruise-lines-could-store-ships-months-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0MJH0DVWblYbRwDRqxf6dHCLh71H14KsCEvYl-glSi0QUSqnJUOyOd6ko

Hi! If they cancel cruises, don’t expect your move over cruise. Remember we moved from 1-22-20 to 3-22-20. We were to receive a 7 day cruise and $1102 in OBC. They refunded $1030 to our credit card. There will be no 7 day cruise. It makes me sad. I know these are difficult times but it just isn't sitting right with me. 
 

Hoping you get to cruise,

Denise 

[AF-1]

I agree with Tapi;  I trust the doctors will find a cure a lot quicker than back in 1918

[BigGuy25]

17 hours ago, opshannon said:

I wish I could be the kind of person who thinks this article is overblown and based on foolish panic. But I cannot reconcile in my mind, using the information that's available to all of us, how this is all going to go away in a month or two and life will return to normal. The data just doesn't suggest that. Until there is a vaccine, there are going to be outbreaks anywhere people gather, be it cruise ships, sports stadiums, or schools. We know that a vaccine is at least 12-18 months away. I admire people who are optimistic, but I don't see where that's coming from in the data.

I’m with you. After 30+ cruises, we look forward to being at-sea again. But, until a vaccine is developed, you won’t find us onboard.  Ships are filled with guests from all over the world and I just don’t trust those who say “I feel fine” when at the pier because they know they’ll be denied boarding if they say anything else.  Cruise lines also know this and they’ll want to be sure the virus is well behind us before they find themselves in the “ships that no port will accept” situation again.

[Roberto256]

18 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

"“During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew, and certain of our ships will be in a prolonged ship layup where the ship will be manned by a limited crew,”"

 

I don't see any mention of "cold lay-up" from the quote from the Carnival filing, but I see where the author took the "limited crew" statement to mean "cold lay-up".

 

Can someone point me to the right section of the 8K filing?   I don't see anything about full crew, limited crew or layup.

 

All I see is that the current pause may be prolonged.

 

Thanks.

[travelhound]

Looking at Expedia, it appears that the cruise industry hopes to resume in June.  That does seem a little optimistic, but next Fall seems realistic.

[Desert Diamond]

Here is an interesting clip from CNBC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDiR4Qm4O-w

[Kennact]

I just tried to price my May cruise to Alaska on Expedia and it shows there are no Alaska cruises till July 1st. Why doesn't Princess just cancel!!!

 

[eclue]

16 hours ago, Tapi said:

I’m truly hopeful that there have been enough advances in medicine during the last 100 years to prevent a repeat of the 1918 pandemic. 🤞🏼

There have been but we still will not have a vaccine for 12 to 18 months regardless of med advances.

 

[c-boy]

18 minutes ago, Kennact said:

I just tried to price my May cruise to Alaska on Expedia and it shows there are no Alaska cruises till July 1st. Why doesn't Princess just cancel!!!

 

Carnival is planning on salvaging that itinerary even if it's just part of it. 

[nooptere]

27 minutes ago, c-boy said:

Carnival is planning on salvaging that itinerary even if it's just part of it. 

Or just take naïve people's money, then being slow at giving it back. Shame on Princess for not matching the reality of the communities where it Ports.

[CruisingAlong4Now]

Daddy, what's a vacation?

[pms4104]

1 hour ago, Kennact said:

I just tried to price my May cruise to Alaska on Expedia and it shows there are no Alaska cruises till July 1st. Why doesn't Princess just cancel!!!

 

Cash flow ... better to have your money than not

Edited April 4, 2020 by pms4104

[c-boy]

32 minutes ago, nooptere said:

Or just take naïve people's money, then being slow at giving it back. Shame on Princess for not matching the reality of the communities where it Ports.

#wellalrightythen

[Roger88]

Please stop with all that hysteria. I understand that the situation is tough, people lose money, cruisers are being cancelled and etc. But look at it from another angle. You are safe, not sick, live at your house, got money in case of whatever. Dont rush going on a cruise at the moment. Wait for better times and jump on it. Hope everyone is doing alright, keep this forum alive guys. It makes me feel better

[voljeep]

at least for now … we've got a beach house rental in North Carolina for a week in July to look forward to 

 

and a little cruise at the end of November, if that happens

 

but, we're safe, still somewhat employed, and have plenty of provisions and adult beverages on hand … so we got

that going for us ...

[DaveSJ711]

16 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

Please stop with all that hysteria. I understand that the situation is tough, people lose money, cruisers are being cancelled and etc. But look at it from another angle. You are safe, not sick, live at your house, got money in case of whatever. Dont rush going on a cruise at the moment. Wait for better times and jump on it. Hope everyone is doing alright, keep this forum alive guys. It makes me feel better

 

There's no hysteria on this page -- only realism.

[voljeep]

1 minute ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

There's no hysteria on this page -- only realism.

will social interaction every really be the same ? schools remaining on virtual classrooms long after this has passed, schools just being used as testing centers ? social interaction and isolation is a problem … j/s

[Cruise Raider]

4 hours ago, dchip said:

Hi! If they cancel cruises, don’t expect your move over cruise. Remember we moved from 1-22-20 to 3-22-20. We were to receive a 7 day cruise and $1102 in OBC. They refunded $1030 to our credit card. There will be no 7 day cruise. It makes me sad. I know these are difficult times but it just isn't sitting right with me. 
 

Hoping you get to cruise,

Denise 

 

Good to know.  I may change it before then if it doesn't look like that sailing will actually take place.  The woman down at Princess (I think her name was Seena) told me I could move it one more time ... but, that was at the time I booked it.  I may change it to a 2022 7 night cruise if they are still offering that switch. 

I'd have never given up that great sailing if I was just going to lose out on my cruise.  

I'd be so very disappointed ... Sorry to hear that happened to you.  I am still waiting to get my money back for my cruise that was supposed to head out today.  It's not even been a month though so, I need to practice more patience.  

Anyway ... thanks for the head's up.  I may have to address it before that happens to my August sailing.... the one I switched it to.  

[Nymich]

2 hours ago, Kennact said:

I just tried to price my May cruise to Alaska on Expedia and it shows there are no Alaska cruises till July 1st. Why doesn't Princess just cancel!!!

 

Because it is better to have cash right now.  Even if it is yours.

[Cruise Raider]

Just now, Nymich said:

Because it is better to have cash right now.  Even if it is yours.

 

Yes indeed!!  I actually asked if I could use my FCC instead of cash to book a future cruise and was refused.  It wasn't posted in my account yet.  They were doing it for a while and then must have stopped short of when I called in.  Well, the cruise I booked will no doubt be canceled as well ... just more time to wait for that refund.  

It sounds like they are trying to make it hard to use the FCC's they promised us.  At this point, I will be happy just to get my cash back.