It looks like it will have to be a vaccine or a cure to restart cruising as herd immunity is not possible

[GrJ Berkshire]

On 7/12/2020 at 1:04 PM, ontheweb said:

A new large scale study down in Spain has shown that herd immunity cannot be reached (or at least before a significant death toll).

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

Problem is vaccine will probably not be widely available to much of the population, before Cruise lines go bankrupt. If there are not cruises even with restricted numbers by Spring 2021 after more than 14 months without passengers and lots of refunds, I cannot see many surviving this. Plus how they will crew ships without flights from the Philippines, etc, Also the days of multinational passengers will not work, US cannot sail from Europe, Brits can't get into USA, so the whole business model is broken?

Equally the maintenance on ships after a year out of service will mean many are not cost effective to put back in service. Large ships with 2000 passengers and inside cabins won't work with 40/50% capacity , in my view only the smaller upmarket ships 750 pax will be viable with 500 passengers. The mega ships 5000+ will not work without 100% vaccination( will US accept that idea) and so probably will be on way to breakers yard

Sorry to be downbeat , but I think REALISTIC !!! 

[nosapphire]

Attached link from web MD about how the breakout on the Diamond Princess seemingly started from a single person makes for sobering reading.

It also indicates that the actions of the cruise line stopped it from being a lot worse.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200729/gene-study-shows-how-coronavirus-swept-through-the-idiamond-princessi#1

[ontheweb]

58 minutes ago, nosapphire said:

Attached link from web MD about how the breakout on the Diamond Princess seemingly started from a single person makes for sobering reading.

It also indicates that the actions of the cruise line stopped it from being a lot worse.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200729/gene-study-shows-how-coronavirus-swept-through-the-idiamond-princessi#1

But, the ambulance chasers will still go after Carnival Corporation for their deeper pockets. 

[SRF]

On 7/12/2020 at 2:22 PM, pc_load_letter said:

 

You can believe the press if you'd like but the death rate is minimal based on population.

 

More people die from TB across the globe every year but when there is a TB outbreak (as there always is in San Diego with our proximity to Mexico) we don't lose our ***** and shutdown an entire economy.

 

People need to make their own decisions. Sure, protect the senior living facilities and retirement homes but in CA, more people between the ages of 18-45 have killed themselves as a result of quarantines than have died from Covid.

 

So California is pretty much shut down now, the infection rate is not going to go down because testing is through the roof. Which is a good thing. But even when you reopen, you will see another surge. Just like we see a surge of flu during the winter. It's the nature of things. And masks are feel good techniques that do nothing. Washing your hands are what works.

 

And finally, California hospitals are no where near capacity. And have never even been close. I just had elective surgery last week. New cases are not overwhelming the facilities.

 

If you are an older person, sure, feel free to stay home. I don't really care what you do

 

Hmm, that''s good statistics, compare 1 full year with 1/2 year and say wow, more people die in 1 year than in 1/2 year.  About 1.5 million TBs deaths per year, versus 650,000 COVID deaths in about 6 months.  

 

Where did you get your statistics on 18-45 deaths from quarantine?  What is a death from quarantine?

 

Hmm, did your elective surgery include time in the ICU?  If it ICU beds that are limited.  And in some areas, they are swamped.  And many countries that have lowered controls have seen spikes and are overwhelming their health care system.

[SRF]

On 7/12/2020 at 8:04 AM, ontheweb said:

A new large scale study down in Spain has shown that herd immunity cannot be reached (or at least before a significant death toll).

 

Vaccines work by getting to herd immunity without the death toll.

 

 

[SRF]

On 7/12/2020 at 11:23 AM, Joebucks said:

One study says this. One says that

 

A study in New York found 68% immunity.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-york-coronavirus-antibodies-neighbourhoods-second-wave-a9612166.html

 

Positive antibody test does not guarantee immunity.

 

That is one of the major questions about this virus.  They have not proven that having antibodies actually means you are immune.  Or even if it does, what level of antibodies is needed to get immunity.

 

If having antibodies does not mean immunity, the world is in for a rough ride.

[SRF]

On 7/12/2020 at 11:23 AM, Joebucks said:

One study says this. One says that

 

A study in New York found 68% immunity.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-york-coronavirus-antibodies-neighbourhoods-second-wave-a9612166.html

 

Positive antibody test does not guarantee immunity.

 

That is one of the major questions about this virus.  They have not proven that having antibodies actually means you are immune.  Or even if it does, what level of antibodies is needed to get immunity.

 

If having antibodies does not mean immunity, the world is in for a rough ride.

[Roz]

10 hours ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

Problem is vaccine will probably not be widely available to much of the population, before Cruise lines go bankrupt. If there are not cruises even with restricted numbers by Spring 2021 after more than 14 months without passengers and lots of refunds, I cannot see many surviving this. Plus how they will crew ships without flights from the Philippines, etc, Also the days of multinational passengers will not work, US cannot sail from Europe, Brits can't get into USA, so the whole business model is broken?

Equally the maintenance on ships after a year out of service will mean many are not cost effective to put back in service. Large ships with 2000 passengers and inside cabins won't work with 40/50% capacity , in my view only the smaller upmarket ships 750 pax will be viable with 500 passengers. The mega ships 5000+ will not work without 100% vaccination( will US accept that idea) and so probably will be on way to breakers yard

Sorry to be downbeat , but I think REALISTIC !!! 

 

What a hopeful, upbeat post. 😏

[clo]

10 hours ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

Sorry to be downbeat , but I think REALISTIC !!! 

I think you're totally realistic. I agree with every component of your comments. We're five months into this and I see little to nothing changing in at least the next year. I have until 6/21 to cancel and honestly figure that will be the outcome.

[lenquixote66]

3 hours ago, Roz said:

 

What a hopeful, upbeat post. 😏

It is a reality .Anything else is a fantasy.

[ontheweb]

8 hours ago, clo said:

I think you're totally realistic. I agree with every component of your comments. We're five months into this and I see little to nothing changing in at least the next year. I have until 6/21 to cancel and honestly figure that will be the outcome.

Why bother to wait if you feel that way?

 

Every time someone posts something hopeful, you are among the leaders with negative comments.

 

Do you realize some countries have beat this? Korea is even now allowing limited fans at their baseball games.

Edited August 2, 2020 by ontheweb
Added ?

[AdoraBelle]

8 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Why bother to wait if you feel that way?

 

Every time someone posts something hopeful, you are among the leaders with negative comments.

 

Do you realize some countries have beat this? Korea is even now allowing limited fans at their baseball games.

South Korea had a young population, the best ground game in the world for testing and contact tracing, and unlike many western countries, had a population that didn’t decide that wearing a mask was too much for their “personal freedoms”. They’ve also just arrested a church leader who caused mass spread. Would never happen in the US. 
 

Even still, they’ve had flare ups when they tried opening nightclubs. It doesn’t just go away.

[clo]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

Every time someone posts something hopeful, you are among the leaders with negative comments.

 

Oh please. I'm realistic. I'm not negative. I've not seen a single thing that leads me to believe that anything positive will happen in the next year. Have you?

 

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

Why bother to wait if you feel that way?

 

Because I don't have a dime to lose.

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, clo said:

I've not seen a single thing that leads me to believe that anything positive will happen in the next year. Have you?

 

Well, we've gone from zero thought of developing a vaccine for COVID-19 last January to starting or almost starting Phase III trials for two vaccine candidates six months later.

 

By September, according to the NIH, testing technologies will start to see huge improvements in terms of volume of tests that can be processed daily and speed with which results can be obtained.

 

And treatment for severely ill patients is now much better than even a few months ago.

 

I would say that's positive.

[ontheweb]

7 hours ago, clo said:

Oh please. I'm realistic. I'm not negative. I've not seen a single thing that leads me to believe that anything positive will happen in the next year. Have you?

There seem to be several vaccines that have passed into the next stage of testing.

 

Some countries have seemed to have this under control at least as of this moment.

 

My state which was far and away the "leader" in number of cases of any state has dropped into fourth. It is possible to lower the rate significantly. 

[ontheweb]

6 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Well, we've gone from zero thought of developing a vaccine for COVID-19 last January to starting or almost starting Phase III trials for two vaccine candidates six months later.

 

By September, according to the NIH, testing technologies will start to see huge improvements in terms of volume of tests that can be processed daily and speed with which results can be obtained.

 

And treatment for severely ill patients is now much better than even a few months ago.

 

I would say that's positive.

Clo will find a way to say all of that is negative. No 100% cure, and she will say negative.

[AF-1]

Russia just announced they have a vaccine that passed the third trial and they are sending it to get approved.  This was on this mornings NBC TV news.  https://www.complex.com/life/2020/07/russia-reportedly-plans-to-approve-coronavirus-vaccine-in-weeks

 

Some people will not believe this and some will.  All I know is hope is alive

[cruisemom42]

9 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Well, we've gone from zero thought of developing a vaccine for COVID-19 last January to starting or almost starting Phase III trials for two vaccine candidates six months later.

 

 

And actually, I realized this morning that I should've said three, not two.

 

(I have my doubts about the Russian ones, however, based on a BBC report I heard last evening....)

[SRF]

On 8/1/2020 at 3:23 AM, GrJ Berkshire said:

Problem is vaccine will probably not be widely available to much of the population, before Cruise lines go bankrupt.

Sorry to be downbeat , but I think REALISTIC !!! 

 

Astra Zenica has already stated in a press release that they will have about 300 million doses available in the US by September.

 

 

[ontheweb]

55 minutes ago, SRF said:

 

Astra Zenica has already stated in a press release that they will have about 300 million doses available in the US by September.

 

 

And those in these forums who always look for the negative will say that was done only to boost the price of the stock.

[d9704011]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

And actually, I realized this morning that I should've said three, not two.

 

(I have my doubts about the Russian ones, however, based on a BBC report I heard last evening....)

VladiVax.... it will likely be approved for use.

[njhorseman]

7 hours ago, AF-1 said:

Russia just announced they have a vaccine that passed the third trial and they are sending it to get approved.  This was on this mornings NBC TV news.  https://www.complex.com/life/2020/07/russia-reportedly-plans-to-approve-coronavirus-vaccine-in-weeks

 

Some people will not believe this and some will.  All I know is hope is alive

That is NOT what the article says. What it says is that they're going to give the vaccine to health care workers while the phase 3 trials are being conducted:

 

"The country will reportedly complete phase 2 of its clinical trials by Aug. 3. The third phase will take place at the same time health care workers begin receiving the vaccination."

[clo]

11 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Clo will find a way to say all of that is negative. No 100% cure, and she will say negative.

Nope. I thanked her. Now hush.

[electro]

On 8/2/2020 at 12:10 PM, ontheweb said:

And those in these forums who always look for the negative will say that was done only to boost the price of the stock.

Your constance posts about everyone being negative on these boards are the most negative posts I have seen! 

 

 

[chipmaster]

The search for anything that gets someone re-elected, gets someone to first base first, and gives hope is where everyone is going.

 

Anyone think corners will be cut, un-supportive or inconclusive data conveniently discarded all for the greater end objective, not me, LOL