COVID-19 Surging Across Europe

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

"First in line" will be the medical professionals, military, first responders, police at all levels, etc.  Last will be folks like us who just want to travel...  Not a high priority.

Yes true but I think as it should be.

[TeeRick]

We continue here on CC to constantly make apples-to-oranges comparisons between countries as if this is some sort of sick competition.  No matter.  We are all in this together.

[excitedofharpenden]

25 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

We continue here on CC to constantly make apples-to-oranges comparisons between countries as if this is some sort of sick competition.  No matter.  We are all in this together.

I totally agree with you. 

 

Phil 

[DaCruiseBug]

44 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

While the current numbers stated above are correct, the real problem IMHO could be that history might repeat itself...

Numbers in Europe are going up. Also in Germany, which is where we live. However, since the past few months have shown that the US are a few weeks behind, I fear that the "second wave" will hit the US just the same. The 60k new cases might be a positive thing of the past then.

 

So if the significant difference between the US and most of Europe will be the same as it was a few months ago, namely the failure of a swift and adequate response in the US, history might repeat itself. 

Look at where most of Europe managed to flatten the first curve and then take a look at the curve in the US - it never flattened. None of us (US or Europe) can work wonders. However, the willingness to take action without having to fear a civil war (damatizing here) is much higher in Europe. If that remains the same with the "second wave" you can figure out what´s going to happen in the US (again).

Since my home and heart lies in both places - US and Europe - you can be darn sure that I hope I am wrong.
 

 

The problem is that you can't just shut down the entire country for an extended period of time because while it may flatten the curve the second you reopen a new wave starts up again.

 

The use of masks and social distancing is fine, keep doing that. But what you're seeing in Europe is basically governments pushing the self destruct button. Look at the impact Covid has had on the economy in Europe and then look and see how well we have done in the United States compared to that. We're also seeing healthcare systems starting to be overwhelmed again in many european countries.

 

Unfortunately nothing can be done to make Covid go away. We're at least another 2-3 months away from the vaccine. All we can do is manage it right now. Shutting everything down like they're doing in Europe again (for the second time btw) is foolish. Their economies weren't in great shape to begin with and now who knows how bad EU countries will be by next year. You're already seeing real unemployment in some of these countries around 20-30% whereas in the US we're at around 7-8%.

[DaCruiseBug]

2 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

 The risk remains high.  A study in Ireland from an actual 7-hour flight with tracing afterwards showed propagation of 59 cases of COVID-19 from a 7-hour flight that was at 17 percent capacity: 13 direct while on board and another 46 from post-flight contagion.  Flying remains a concern, especially for seniors and those with under-lying conditions.

 

A large national outbreak of COVID-19 linked to air travel, Ireland, summer 2020

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.42.2001624

 

This is reality!

 

Of course, the airlines and their association (IATA) don't want you to know that...

 

First off it's a flight from the middle-east to Ireland, not in the United States or within Europe. Second, it states that "most" were wearing masks...not all as required in the United States. It also states that a majority of the people on that plane were traveling in groups so they could have easily contracted the virus before they got onboard the aircraft.

 

About 1 million people per day fly on airplanes in the United States and there have only been a handful of Covid cases traced back to flights. I've personally been on dozens of flights since Covid hit and have seen the measures US airlines are taking to make it as safe as possible for passengers. There's not an ounce of worry in me. If you want to live your life in fear go right on ahead...but any reasonable individual will see that it's perfectly safe to fly.

[nocl]

11 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

The problem is that you can't just shut down the entire country for an extended period of time because while it may flatten the curve the second you reopen a new wave starts up again.

 

The use of masks and social distancing is fine, keep doing that. But what you're seeing in Europe is basically governments pushing the self destruct button. Look at the impact Covid has had on the economy in Europe and then look and see how well we have done in the United States compared to that. We're also seeing healthcare systems starting to be overwhelmed again in many european countries.

 

Unfortunately nothing can be done to make Covid go away. We're at least another 2-3 months away from the vaccine. All we can do is manage it right now. Shutting everything down like they're doing in Europe again (for the second time btw) is foolish. Their economies weren't in great shape to begin with and now who knows how bad EU countries will be by next year. You're already seeing real unemployment in some of these countries around 20-30% whereas in the US we're at around 7-8%.

in their case it worked the first time and stopped the first wave quickly. The problem this time is they waited too long and the virus is well entrenched in several of the countries.

[DaCruiseBug]

5 minutes ago, nocl said:

in their case it worked the first time and stopped the first wave quickly. The problem this time is they waited too long and the virus is well entrenched in several of the countries.

 

I wouldn't say quickly...many countries were locked down for a few months. They got the numbers down and now they find themselves right back where they started.

 

Does shutting down the entire country work when it comes to Covid? Yes. Is it a sustainable option? Absolutely not.

 

Per the International Monetary Fund, the GDP in Europe in 2Q2020 fell by about 40%. Just think about that for a minute and consider what the consequences of that will be.

Edited October 27, 2020 by DaCruiseBug

[LGW59]

29 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

First off it's a flight from the middle-east to Ireland, not in the United States or within Europe. Second, it states that "most" were wearing masks...not all as required in the United States. It also states that a majority of the people on that plane were traveling in groups so they could have easily contracted the virus before they got onboard the aircraft.

 

About 1 million people per day fly on airplanes in the United States and there have only been a handful of Covid cases traced back to flights. I've personally been on dozens of flights since Covid hit and have seen the measures US airlines are taking to make it as safe as possible for passengers. There's not an ounce of worry in me. If you want to live your life in fear go right on ahead...but any reasonable individual will see that it's perfectly safe to fly.

And any reasonable individual will make the decision they are most comfortable with, without worry of ridicule from a person who has a differing view

[Miaminice]

43 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

The problem is that you can't just shut down the entire country for an extended period of time because while it may flatten the curve the second you reopen a new wave starts up again.

....

The use of masks and social distancing is fine, keep doing that. But what you're seeing in Europe is basically governments pushing the self destruct button. Look at the impact Covid has had on the economy in Europe and then look and see how well we have done in the United States compared to that.
....
Shutting everything down like they're doing in Europe again (for the second time btw) is foolish. 

 

I don´t feel the need to go back and forth in a discussion here... so I will only leave it at a few remarks.

So your answer is to simply not flatten the curve at all??? The tragic result of that is obvious.
 

I really can´t see how well the US have done... neither economically nor otherwise. The only thing I can see is delaying what´s inevitably going to happen anyway at the cost of 225k+ lives. A number which in in total and in relation to the population is a disgrace for any civilized country.

 

I also can´t see any "shutting everything down" all over Europe - and I live and work in Europe. Some countries had and will take harsher actions, some will just tighten regulations - both done for a required period of time, both far away from a complete shutdown. If any immediate short term impact on the economies will weigh heavier than a long streched impact on an economy over years PLUS the cost of countless lives, remains to be seen.

Anyway... this is no competition (as others have correctly stated). We are all losing here.
However, self-awareness is usually the first step for improvement. And I am sorry to say that there seems to be little of both. Unless you are saying that a higher rate of incidence and mortality is a small price to pay for a questionable result. 

If you are, then ask yourself how much your life or the life of a loved one or anybodey else is worth to you? It´s easy to speak about numbers if they don´t have a face...

Edited October 27, 2020 by Miaminice

[Crazy planning mom]

In NY, the Governor is shutting down now only in micro-clusters( neighborhoods or portions of neighborhoods)

where the infection rate is too high and then reopening as soon as the numbers come down.  I think that is the right tactic.

[DaCruiseBug]

5 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

I don´t feel the need to go back and forth in a discussion here... so I will only leave it at a few remarks.

 

I really can´t see how well the US have done... neither economically nor otherwise. The only thing I can see is delaying what´s inevitably going to happen anyway at the cost of 225k+ lives. A number which in relation to the population is a disgrace for any civilized country.

 

I also can´t see any "shutting everything down" all over Europe - and I live and work in Europe. Some countries had and will take harsher actions, some will just tighten regulations - both done for a required period of time, both far away from a complete shutdown. If any immediate short term impact on the economies will weigh heavier than a long streched impact on an economy over years plus the cost of lives remains to be seen.

Anyway, this is no competition (as others have correctly stated). We are all losing here.
However, self-awareness is usually the first step for improvement. And I am sorry to say that there seems to be little in both.
Unless you are saying that a higher rate of incidence and mortality is a small price to pay for a questionable result. 
If you are, then ask yourself how much your life or the life of a loved one is worth to you? It´s easy to speak about numbers if they don´t have a face...

 

What i'm saying is that shutting everything down would inevitably have a much longer lasting impact on society. We're talking about countries in Europe having to make drastic cuts to healthcare, pensions, and other government spending...all after many took drastic austerity measures just a few years ago.

 

While the number of "reported" deaths is higher than anyone would want, it's important to remember that even with the United States not shutting down we still have lower deaths per capita than Spain, Belgium, Brazil, Peru and several other countries. And basically in line with deaths in the UK and Italy who are now seeing massive surges in cases and deaths.

 

In Spain we're looking at an unemployment rate nearing 20%, meanwhile in the US it's 7.9%. It's also worth noting that even tho some EU countries are reporting unemployment rates in the single digits that they report the numbers differently. Those furloughed aren't considered "unemployed" in many EU countries, whereas in the US they are.

[Miaminice]

And again you are talking about shutting everything down... we seem to have a different idea about what "shutting everything down" means. And there is a middle way between doing virtually nothing for a long time and only a little when too late and "shutting everything down" - which noone is asking for. Oh well, let´s agree to disagree...
 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Miaminice

[Goodtime Cruizin]

On 10/26/2020 at 6:49 AM, Cruise a holic said:

Actually, covid seems to be getting worse in many US states.  I understand that most of us are getting covid fatigue, but it is important that we stay put for now.  Flying can be dangerous, and airports not great- going into a high risk states not a good idea. We need to keep the faith and until we all are successfully vaccinated stay home.  They were able to find a successful immunization for polio, DPT, etc.  We need to be diligent for the sake of ourselves and others.  Listen to science.

 

Can you explain your comment "Actually, covid seems to be getting worse in many states."  Specifically... how is it getting worse? and where? 

[Goodtime Cruizin]

On 10/26/2020 at 9:23 AM, DaCruiseBug said:

 

No, actually flying is NOT dangerous.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

"a new study finds that when masks are worn there is only a 0.003% chance particles from a passenger can enter the passenger's breathing space who is sitting beside them"

 

Let's stop with the fear mongering.

 

Then why can't foks go to worship?

[WpgCruise]

41 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

And any reasonable individual will make the decision they are most comfortable with, without worry of ridicule from a person who has a differing view

I agree.

Too many seem to be spending too much energy on telling others what to do.

 

[Miaminice]

2 minutes ago, WpgCruise said:

I agree.

Too many seem to be spending too much energy on telling others what to do.

 

 

If it was only about different views... problem is that in the case of Covid individual decisions can have a fatal effect on anybody else. 

 

[hcat]

Numbers are hard to figure out. 

Folks where we are headed in Florids  says things are good....yet Fla numbers are high???

 

NY State Univ  ( SUNY) is requiring all students be tested before Thanksgiving break.  Those who are positive will have to quarantine , I think in their home counties? After the break they will be virtual...

 

Seems like eventially we will all be tested but a neg test is a snapshot in time from what I gather..

[Pushkin]

On 10/21/2020 at 6:47 PM, Ashland said:

We're scheduled for a British Isles cruise on July 30, 2021...and keeping our fingers crossed.

 

We're scheduled for that one too!  I made the reservation way, way back.  This is the one cruise that I really hope will not be cancelled!

Edited October 27, 2020 by Pushkin

[baldilocks]

I'm giving 2020 a one star rating....never to be visited again.

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

 

Then why can't foks go to worship?

HEPA filters.

Not much loud singing on planes.

Edited October 27, 2020 by ECCruise

[ScubesDad]

2 hours ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

The problem is that you can't just shut down the entire country for an extended period of time because while it may flatten the curve the second you reopen a new wave starts up again.  Australia did, and they seem to be doing ok.

 

The use of masks and social distancing is fine, keep doing that.  Not everyone does, that is part of the problem.

 

Unfortunately nothing can be done to make Covid go away.  That's not a certainty, it just hasn't been identified yet.

 

We're at least another 2-3 months away from the vaccine.  Probably longer than that, and early results are indicating that the antibodies are short lived.

 

You're already seeing real unemployment in some of these countries around 20-30% whereas in the US we're at around 7-8%. Australia recently reported an unemployment rate of about 7.5%; however, they have entered their first recession  in 29 years.

 

2 hours ago, DaCruiseBug said:

I've personally been on dozens of flights since Covid hit and have seen the measures US airlines are taking to make it as safe as possible for passengers. Considering all recommendations are to limit travel to urgent needs, what would cause you to travel so much......

 

There's not an ounce of worry in me. If you want to live your life in fear go right on ahead...but any reasonable individual will see that it's perfectly safe to fly. And other reasonable individuals realize the increased risks of placing oneself in situations of high population density, and make an informed decision after weighing all the facts.

 

1 hour ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

I wouldn't say quickly...many countries were locked down for a few months. They got the numbers down and now they find themselves right back where they started. Not factually true.  Many countries have maintained low infection rates, while returning to a position closer to normality.

 

Does shutting down the entire country work when it comes to Covid? Yes. Is it a sustainable option? Absolutely not. Maybe it is  sustainable, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, all seem to be doing OK.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, LGW59 said:

And any reasonable individual will make the decision they are most comfortable with, without worry of ridicule from a person who has a differing view.

 

Well said.  Unfortunately the definition of "reasonable individual" has yet to be created. 

[sandancer]

All of the points the OP made are still very relevant to Europe and the situation is even more difficult as numbers rise daily.  We all just have to do the best we can to stay safe. Fly or don’t fly.  Eat in restaurants or not. The choice is yours. You are only responsible for your own actions and no one other than the authorities should tell you how to behave. I work in a hospital. I’m taking every single precaution I can. No flying, no restaurants. That is my choice. 

[Ashland]

4 hours ago, Pushkin said:

We're scheduled for that one too!  I made the reservation way, way back.  This is the one cruise that I really hope will not be cancelled!

There's a nice rollcall for this cruise...if you're interested.

[Ex-Airbalancer]

10 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Hey, that wasn't my post with the incorrect count, that was someone from Hogtown. 

 

FWIW, they also had the wrong number of US states.

Sorry about that 😳

they were probably already planning the parade for the Leafs in 2021 and got confused 🤣

[The_Big_M]

9 hours ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

I wouldn't say quickly...many countries were locked down for a few months. They got the numbers down and now they find themselves right back where they started.

 

Does shutting down the entire country work when it comes to Covid? Yes. Is it a sustainable option? Absolutely not.

 

 

 

It doesn't need to be sustainable. With other actions coronavirus can be managed well. Look at places like Singapore, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Australia. No ongoing shutdowns. But managing coronavirus well. 

 

The issue you mentioned about countries with lock downs then ramping up to new highs just shows they did not manage the lock down, nor the rest of the situation well.