Odds Makers

[klfrodo]

Give me your uneducated odds of my April 24, 2021 Carnival Panorama cruise actually sailing on time out of Long Beach.

I'm thinking less than 50% but more than 25%. Since it's my money and my hopes, maybe I'm being a bit optimistic.

 

What say you?

 

[tallnthensome]

25% says it sails .... 75 the other way. June is my best estimate with the vaccine roll out. April is too soon. Cancelled my April last week. 

[ninjacat123]

I think 25% says it sails especially since it's sailing out of Long Beach.  Florida ports are scheduled to be first, correct?

[joeyancho]

0% in California.  The governor won't allow it.  

[lazydayz]

8 minutes ago, ninjacat123 said:

I think 25% says it sails especially since it's sailing out of Long Beach.  Florida ports are scheduled to be first, correct?

 

I would take the bet that it does not sail from Long Beach in April.  We will be lucky to have seven night cruises in Florida by then.  This process is painfully slow. 

[Saint Greg]

9 minutes ago, ninjacat123 said:

I think 25% says it sails especially since it's sailing out of Long Beach.  Florida ports are scheduled to be first, correct?

 

Yeah Florida then Galveston is what they have said. 

[Chief1369]

Out of Florida 60%, Galveston I'd say 50%, out of California I think 5% would be optimistic

[Saint Greg]

I feel like the west coast will be one of the last to start back up. I mean...The 49ers have to play the rest of their games in Arizona. While I feel like cruising could be back in April, I don't feel good about my Seattle cruise leaving at the end of April. I kind of wish they'd just cancel it if they know they aren't going to open the port so I can plan something else.

[MeganGC1983]

I would say 10-15%. I’m only at 50% that our Horizon 4/11 will sail. 

[ObstructedView2]

0%

 

 

😷

[Jamman54]

1% chance that the Panorama will sail in April. I'm figuring that my Horizon 4/3 8 day, soon to be reduced to 7 day cruise, has a 40% chance. Same for my 4/18 6 day Breeze cruise. 😎

[klfrodo]

I want to thank everyone for their input. Gives me things to think about and consider.

 

I was taking Amtrak Sleeper from Seattle to LA prior. Since it was sleeper, it appears I can get a full refund if I cancel prior to Dec 21.

If we wait for carnival to cancel, I can get full refund. Can't see any reason to let them float my hard earned money just to push out to 2022. The small OBC they offer is just free cash to them anyway considering their exorbitant margins for onboard purchases.

May have to take the loss for the prepaid hotel reservations at Queen Mary since she is essentially out of business. Will have to look into that.

My return flight on Alaska won't be an issue due to elite status.

 

We had a small group of friends going from all across the US. We all met thru roll calls in previous years and have stayed close ever since.

 

Anyway, thanks for letting me ramble. You've all given me a mission to complete.

Happy Holidays to all.

[CoasterGuy]

I have a cruise booked for April 18th out of Miami.     I'm currently giving it about 30% odds of it sailing, 

 

 

[dallasdan]

I am on the same cruise.  I think 25% also.

[bitemyfly]

Cali? .01% 

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, klfrodo said:

Give me your uneducated odds of my April 24, 2021 Carnival Panorama cruise actually sailing on time out of Long Beach.

I'm thinking less than 50% but more than 25%. Since it's my money and my hopes, maybe I'm being a bit optimistic.

 

What say you?

 

I'm april 25 out of Galveston and I dont think one person is positive, I've lost count of how many said no chance, including a travel agent who says he is never wrong. I'm still holding and evaluating before the end of january, but not booking hotel or parking 

[Trueblueky]

1 hour ago, klfrodo said:

Give me your uneducated odds of my April 24, 2021 Carnival Panorama cruise actually sailing on time out of Long Beach.

I'm thinking less than 50% but more than 25%. Since it's my money and my hopes, maybe I'm being a bit optimistic.

 

What say you?

 

From Long Beach, less than 25%.  First cruises will be from Port Canaveral, Miami and Galveston.  Those may begin in March.

[jimbo5544]

7 hours ago, joeyancho said:

0% in California.  The governor won't allow it.  

Isn’t that a sad statement.

[jimbo5544]

6 hours ago, Jamman54 said:

1% chance that the Panorama will sail in April. I'm figuring that my Horizon 4/3 8 day, soon to be reduced to 7 day cruise, has a 40% chance. Same for my 4/18 6 day Breeze cruise. 😎

Well, at least you picked the right ships.😉

[jimbo5544]

7 hours ago, Saint Greg said:

I feel like the west coast will be one of the last to start back up. I mean...The 49ers have to play the rest of their games in Arizona. While I feel like cruising could be back in April, I don't feel good about my Seattle cruise leaving at the end of April. I kind of wish they'd just cancel it if they know they aren't going to open the port so I can plan something else.

Pretty sad wasting the Panorama on that.  

[BlerkOne]

The states actually trying to do something to control the virus will likely be out of the woods before those who do nothing. Cali may well have cruising before Florida.

[Saint Greg]

[john91498]

less then 0

[my kids mama]

Not much of a chance.  Just like my 10 day Alaska, out of San Fransisco, in May.  I give it a 2% chance of sailing. I am actually thinking of booking a different trip.  Maybe an all inclusive in Mexico, or something. I don't have many time frames during the year that I can go anywhere for a vacation.  I usually have a week in May to take advantage of.  I would rather know now instead of getting the month by month cancellations. I just miss the beach so much!  I need to see the water. 

[skridge]

10 hours ago, klfrodo said:

Give me your uneducated odds of my April 24, 2021 Carnival Panorama cruise actually sailing on time out of Long Beach.

I'm thinking less than 50% but more than 25%. Since it's my money and my hopes, maybe I'm being a bit optimistic.

 

What say you?

 

I think it is 0% out of Florida and Texas.  I think it is less than 0% out of California.  No way they are going to have enough vaccine distribution by then to warrant putting people on ships and with this wave of the virus being the worst one yet, I don't see it happening.