Will they sail less than full?

[bstrong3]

We are currently booked on Equinox Feb. 2021 and have been since Feb. 2019. We are considering doing the Lift and Shift to a 2022 sailing for fears that the cruising experience will be less than desirable. The Lift and Shift as I understand is only available until Aug. so we have until then to make a decision. But if they sail with less than a full ship that might be a good thing for the overall cruise experience, no lines, always a seat a the bar etc.. Anyway the cruise we have is almost fully booked and if they went the less then full route how do you think would they decide on who gets bumped?

 

[ipeeinthepool]

5 hours ago, bstrong3 said:

We are currently booked on Equinox Feb. 2021 and have been since Feb. 2019. We are considering doing the Lift and Shift to a 2022 sailing for fears that the cruising experience will be less than desirable. The Lift and Shift as I understand is only available until Aug. so we have until then to make a decision. But if they sail with less than a full ship that might be a good thing for the overall cruise experience, no lines, always a seat a the bar etc.. Anyway the cruise we have is almost fully booked and if they went the less then full route how do you think would they decide on who gets bumped?

 

 

We're booked on the Equinox for cruises in Feb 2021 and Feb 2022 so we'll likely see you there.  Since we are already booked for Feb. 2022, L&S isn't an option for us.  It will be interesting to see if they will cancel reservations to reduce the passenger count, I'll be pi**ed if they only cancel one leg of my B2B.  If enjoyable cruising doesn't resume in early 2021, there may not be many cruise lines left in 2022.  Yes many cruise lines have borrowed enough money to last another year or so, but someday they are going to need to repay those loans.

[bouhunter]

7 hours ago, bstrong3 said:

 if they went the less then full route how do you think would they decide on who gets bumped?

 

No one knows.  But lots of people are willing so speculate.

[sanger727]

No one knows what will happen in February. But my personal opinion is that if they sail less than full intentionally, it won’t lead to no lines. If they sail at 50% capacity for social distancing, then they would most like put out fewer chairs - at bars, restaurants, and in public areas. So the passenger to chair ratio won’t change, therefore I don’t think lines will be reduced or eliminated. You might end up with a shorter line for dinner but since there are fewer tables available, it won’t take less time.

[ipeeinthepool]

13 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

No one knows what will happen in February. But my personal opinion is that if they sail less than full intentionally, it won’t lead to no lines. If they sail at 50% capacity for social distancing, then they would most like put out fewer chairs - at bars, restaurants, and in public areas. So the passenger to chair ratio won’t change, therefore I don’t think lines will be reduced or eliminated. You might end up with a shorter line for dinner but since there are fewer tables available, it won’t take less time.

 

A lot will depend on the number of staff.  If they keep the same number of bartenders and waiters, service should improve dramatically. 

[Georgia_Peaches]

I think there will be enough people who will cancel or shift on their own that they won't really have to bump anyone off.  They may do what airlines do when they need a seat on a plane and ask for volunteers and offer an incentive like OBC on a future cruise.

 

I agree with others that reduced capacity doesn't mean less lines.  Especially if there is social distancing going on.  We were at a brewery yesterday and the line was stretched down the sidewalk due to social distancing.  Unfortunately, the August Lift & Shift deadline comes before any post-Covid cruise reviews.  We moved ours to 2022 just to be safe.

[jelayne]

A cruise can look to be fully booked but it could be that the cruise line has held back cabins knowing  that they will Initially sail at reduced capacity.  If I were running a cruise line that’s what I would do.  For heavily booked cruises, when a cancellation occurred I would block that cabin from the available inventory. 
Any bumping or requesting passengers to move to another sailing would be costly and create a customer backlash.  

[PTC DAWG]

Booked on EQ this September, ready to go, barring wearing a mask...not doing it. 

[Ray in NH]

1 hour ago, PTC DAWG said:

Booked on EQ this September, ready to go, barring wearing a mask...not doing it. 

 

Which September cruise?  We are booked on the (supposed) 14 Sept. sailing.  If it doesn't go we will obviously need to move it.

 

NRayH

[Fouremco]

11 hours ago, bstrong3 said:

Anyway the cruise we have is almost fully booked and if they went the less then full route how do you think would they decide on who gets bumped?

The threads are filled with speculation on how cruise lines might bump passengers, varying from last to book being first to be bumped to bumping low fare passengers first and keeping those with more expensive bookings. Your guess is as good as anyone's.

[ORV]

3 hours ago, PTC DAWG said:

Booked on EQ this September, ready to go, barring wearing a mask...not doing it. 

Odds are good there'll be no need for you to wear that mask, at least on EQNX.

[davekathy]

My Magic 8 Ball says, "cannot predict now". 🎱

[phoenix_dream]

We of course can only speculate.  So I will.  Celebrity is desperate to get/keep more money in their coffers.   Celebrity in recent years is also all about the suites.  So my best guess (and I think it is an educated one based on those two points alone) is that they will not bump any of their suite passengers and they will do their best to bump lowest prices paid first.  Now, whether they have the appropriate technology to do that is a whole other story!  But if they can I think they will.  I realize it would require some changes to how they handle Luminae dining and entrance into the Retreat Lounge/Michaels Club but I'm sure they can work out something.  I could speculate how but don't want to take this thread sideways.

 

I also believe that there will NOT be enough people cancelling or lifting and shifting to enable them to reach their correct capacity without bumping people.  I may be wrong, who knows.  But right now they are still accepting reservations on many, many cruises for this fall.  Those that sail (if any I dare say) will almost definitely be at some level of reduced capacity.

[Fouremco]

26 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

We of course can only speculate.  So I will. 

Given free rein, I think that Celebrity will follow the path you've described. The only potential fly in the ointment might be the CDC requiring equal cut backs across all passenger accommodation decks to achieve better social distancing. Unlikely, but...

[jelayne]

44 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Given free rein, I think that Celebrity will follow the path you've described. The only potential fly in the ointment might be the CDC requiring equal cut backs across all passenger accommodation decks to achieve better social distancing. Unlikely, but...

I think it is possible that the CDC may require cutbacks across all decks to space passengers.   They may also require changes to crew accommodations to improve the spacing.  If the cutbacks are across all decks suites and AQ are clustered on Deck 12 & 11 on S class so they would have to reduce occupancy at all levels of cabins.

[phoenix_dream]

4 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Given free rein, I think that Celebrity will follow the path you've described. The only potential fly in the ointment might be the CDC requiring equal cut backs across all passenger accommodation decks to achieve better social distancing. Unlikely, but...

You may certainly be right. But to me that plan is pretty flawed. Decreasing staterooms per floor really doesn’t help much as far as social distancing where people might briefly pass one another in the hallway. The real problem is areas where people gather in public spaces.  But who knows. Logic  doesn’t always rule unfortunately.

[sanger727]

23 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

A lot will depend on the number of staff.  If they keep the same number of bartenders and waiters, service should improve dramatically. 

that’s true; I am operating under the assumption that if they make the choice to run at 50% capacity (rather than they are open to full and just can’t fill the ship); that they would hire half the staff. Half capacity means half the revenue and half the people paying gratuities. Then they could save costs by only hiring half the crew (outside what is needed to run the ship) and the customers would receive the same experience and the tipped crew would make what they normally would.

[WrittenOnYourHeart]

1 hour ago, sanger727 said:

that’s true; I am operating under the assumption that if they make the choice to run at 50% capacity (rather than they are open to full and just can’t fill the ship); that they would hire half the staff. Half capacity means half the revenue and half the people paying gratuities. Then they could save costs by only hiring half the crew (outside what is needed to run the ship) and the customers would receive the same experience and the tipped crew would make what they normally would.

 

It would make sense that crew are counted in the % occupancy. I know with discussions of reopening NYC schools staff counts in the % occupancy of school buildings.

[marieps]

13 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

You may certainly be right. But to me that plan is pretty flawed. Decreasing staterooms per floor really doesn’t help much as far as social distancing where people might briefly pass one another in the hallway. The real problem is areas where people gather in public spaces.  But who knows. Logic  doesn’t always rule unfortunately.

Lets just hope the CDC policy wonk who comes up with the rules has actually been a passenger.  No one congregates in the hallway (except for maybe a cabin crawl).  You can imagine a team of bureaucrats thinking they know best based on ill-informed notions and a negative narrative.  JMHO.

[bEwAbG]

My predictions based on the current trajectory:  There will inevitably be restrictions on gatherings everywhere.  Indoor bars will not be allowed to be open at all.  No theaters or show rooms, either.  Food service will be very limited.  Think 3 or 4 fixed dining times per meal with capacity limited to 50% at most, and no meals lasting over 30-45 minutes.  Basically, you will be at sea in a nice room with some opportunities for going outside.

 

If I were a betting man, I think the restrictions will be such that it won't be profitable for cruise lines to start up again.  Lots of entertainment venues are facing the same realities right now.  In DC, you will (maybe) soon be able to have gatherings of 50 people under a phase 2 plan, but that's not enough revenue to actually put on a show for most places.  The phase 3 plan will allow up to 250.  A theater with 1000 seats would only be able to fill a quarter of them, which is not economically feasible for most productions.  Cruises subject to the same constraints would face the same decision, i.e., what is the lowest capacity we could sail with and still at least cover costs.

 

This also supposes that a spike in infections won't require further restrictions later.  For example, if there is a huge outbreak in Florida this summer, that's going to close the ports for a period of time.  All of it is very "wait and see" despite everyone being impatient with reality.

[ipeeinthepool]

6 hours ago, sanger727 said:

that’s true; I am operating under the assumption that if they make the choice to run at 50% capacity (rather than they are open to full and just can’t fill the ship); that they would hire half the staff. 

 

From everything I've seen in other businesses they won't be able to proportional reduce staff.  The staff will have a lot more work to do so my assumption is that staff will be at the same or increased levels.  Elimination of the buffet will require a lot more wait staff and stateroom attendants will have a lot more cleaning.

[m8zenblue]

Ok, I'm on the Constellation, 11/21/20.

At the moment, as far as I can tell, the ship is booked approximately 50-60 % 

Let's say that this ship will sail with less than full, for example, 50%.

What if it is already at 60%, will they bump people off ?

Who will they bump ?

Will they then reassign cabins for social distancing ?

Sorry, these are just a few questions that crossed my mind.

Any comments on this will be much appreciated !

[cangelmd]

19 hours ago, jelayne said:

I think it is possible that the CDC may require cutbacks across all decks to space passengers.   They may also require changes to crew accommodations to improve the spacing.  If the cutbacks are across all decks suites and AQ are clustered on Deck 12 & 11 on S class so they would have to reduce occupancy at all levels of cabins.

I think it is very likely that CDC will require at least temp changes in crew accommodations. It makes little sense for viral spread to leave the crew in such close quarters. It could undermine most precautions taken elsewhere

[ipeeinthepool]

16 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

 Decreasing staterooms per floor really doesn’t help much as far as social distancing where people might briefly pass one another in the hallway. The real problem is areas where people gather in public spaces.  But who knows. Logic  doesn’t always rule unfortunately.

 

I agree that decreasing number of staterooms per floor doesn't really do anything.  I don't rarely see the people in surrounding cabins.

[phoenix_dream]

2 hours ago, bEwAbG said:

My predictions based on the current trajectory:  There will inevitably be restrictions on gatherings everywhere.  Indoor bars will not be allowed to be open at all.  No theaters or show rooms, either.  Food service will be very limited.  Think 3 or 4 fixed dining times per meal with capacity limited to 50% at most, and no meals lasting over 30-45 minutes.  Basically, you will be at sea in a nice room with some opportunities for going outside.

 

If I were a betting man, I think the restrictions will be such that it won't be profitable for cruise lines to start up again.  Lots of entertainment venues are facing the same realities right now.  In DC, you will (maybe) soon be able to have gatherings of 50 people under a phase 2 plan, but that's not enough revenue to actually put on a show for most places.  The phase 3 plan will allow up to 250.  A theater with 1000 seats would only be able to fill a quarter of them, which is not economically feasible for most productions.  Cruises subject to the same constraints would face the same decision, i.e., what is the lowest capacity we could sail with and still at least cover costs.

 

This also supposes that a spike in infections won't require further restrictions later.  For example, if there is a huge outbreak in Florida this summer, that's going to close the ports for a period of time.  All of it is very "wait and see" despite everyone being impatient with reality.

I can't imagine anyone willing to sail with the type of restrictions you are talking about.  Almost no one (I would say no one but there may be an outlier here or there) would be willing to sail without bars or entertainment, and no way would most of us consider shoveling a four course meal down in 30 minutes!    I could see changes in some of these things for sure.  Spaced out seating in bars, production shows (if any) cut down by half,  and more live entertainers in the main theater who are solo or small groups.  Spaced out seating in restaurants, and perhaps if needed the temporary conversion of specialty restaurants to main dining, or free or greatly reduced dinners in specialty restaurants to lessen the load in the restaurants.  But if ships can't sail with bars, entertainment, and reasonably comfortable dining they will not sail at all IMHO