Wall Street: CDC to blame for cruises not resuming sooner

[ipeeinthepool]

18 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Wow, this is so wrong on so many levels.  If the cruise industry was "not under their control", how is it that the CDC has shut down every single cruise starting/ending/calling at a US port?  And, the CDC does not have "control" of US based industries as they are only mandated to prevent spread of disease from outside the US or in interstate travel.  All covid regulations in place in every state, county, and city in the US are following the state, county, and city health organization's requirements, the CDC can only recommend to the states.

 

I'll respectfully disagree on this one.  The CDC has issued a Level 3 Travel Advisory for cruise ship and all non-essential travel.  I'm not going to debate if this is the correct decision, but it's a fact.   The effect of this is that almost every insurance company won't cover you if you begin your trip under the Level 3 conditions.  Almost no one will travel without any medical insurance, so the CDC has effectively closed down cruise ship travel.

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, S.A.M.J.R. said:

 

I get that masks and social distancing work, and I do my part.  I'm just not convinced the disease will just "go away".  You couldn't get much more socially distant than when everything was shut down.  And the virus stuck around.

 

I think the virus will stick around for a long time regardless of mitigation efforts.  The mitigation efforts will make the numbers of victims be smaller, but not go away entirely.  Look at China.  They're starting to get more cases after "beating" the thing. 

Everything was NOT shut down.  Never.   And was opened too quickly.  Florida?  Texas?  Arizona?

The parachute analogy really works here.

Gee, the chute saved me from 10000 feet to 2000 feet fine, so time to ditch it.

[MJSailors]

31 minutes ago, MJSailors said:

Please add Iceland to the list as a country that got control of the virus.

Apparently, it was decided that the health organization doctors and scientists were in charge of mitigating protocols. Wisely,the politicians stepped aside and let them do the health professionals and scientists do their work.

The last sentence should be...

Wisely,the politicians stepped aside and let the health professionals and scientists do their work.

[gadaboutgal]

Just imagine if everyone in the world wore masks for just 30 days, the virus would have no place to go.  Wouldn't it die out then?

[chengkp75]

On 6/19/2020 at 6:47 PM, karena1 said:

Totally agree!  The CDC hates that the cruise industry is not under their control since they are based in other countries, so want to get them under their thumb.  Totally unfair.

 

21 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Wow, this is so wrong on so many levels.  If the cruise industry was "not under their control", how is it that the CDC has shut down every single cruise starting/ending/calling at a US port?  And, the CDC does not have "control" of US based industries as they are only mandated to prevent spread of disease from outside the US or in interstate travel.  All covid regulations in place in every state, county, and city in the US are following the state, county, and city health organization's requirements, the CDC can only recommend to the states.

 

3 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

I'll respectfully disagree on this one.  The CDC has issued a Level 3 Travel Advisory for cruise ship and all non-essential travel.  I'm not going to debate if this is the correct decision, but it's a fact.   The effect of this is that almost every insurance company won't cover you if you begin your trip under the Level 3 conditions.  Almost no one will travel without any medical insurance, so the CDC has effectively closed down cruise ship travel.

I believe that you misinterpreted my post.  The first poster quoted here said "the CDC hates that the cruise industry is not under their control."  Then, I pointed out that if the cruise industry was not under CDC control, "how is it that the CDC has shut down every single cruise", showing that I know that the CDC has closed down the cruise industry from the US.  And, while the travel advisory applies to US citizens as well, it does not apply to any other nationalities, so the cruise industry could start up in places other than the US, with cruisers from other nationalities.

[A&L_Ont]

4 hours ago, ECCruise said:

The parachute analogy really works here.

Gee, the chute saved me from 10000 feet to 2000 feet fine, so time to ditch it.

That description seems spot on. 

[grandgeezer]

4 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Everything was NOT shut down.  Never.   And was opened too quickly.  Florida?  Texas?  Arizona?

The parachute analogy really works here.

Gee, the chute saved me from 10000 feet to 2000 feet fine, so time to ditch it.

You're just as dead from 2,000 feet as you would be from 10,000 feet. RIP

[centurycruiser]

The cruise lines need the cdc to allow cruising in US waters. Until that happens it doesn't matter whether they want to go or not. They've been negotiating with the cdc but the cdc is not negotiating.  Read ncl's announcement. They were frustrated.

They are dealing with a government bureaucracy that is only affected if amything goes wrong. If nothing is happening,  nothing can go wrong.

The cruise lines want to open up. The alternate is bankruptcy.

Each day they don't sail costs ncl almos $18 million in revenue, Royal, $30 million a day and carnival $57 million a day.

There's been no revenue for six and a half months. Only refunds and FCC's which will cut into future revenue. And, expenses. Someone told me Carnival's expenses are $654 million a month. If that's true that's over $4 billion, that's BILLION, for the shutdown.

How long could you survive with no income for six and a half months, with no real end in sight? The cdc keeps moving the goalposts! Don't rationalize for them. They're a government bureaucracy.

[grandgeezer]

On 6/19/2020 at 3:31 PM, twangster said:

The CDC is one agency with a focus on just one thing - health.  It's role among other things is to provide decision makers with a viewpoint from the perspective of health alone.  They are not chartered with the task of incorporating other factors like the economy, jobs or legal viewpoints.  The CDC represents one chair at a table with a number of other chairs occupied by other agencies providing data to decision makers.  

 

A decision maker can listen to what the CDC says, then listen to what an economist says, then listen to what a lawyers says then listen to all the other agencies involved with the discussion.  Based on all that input a decision maker can then choose what they deem to be the right way to proceed which is going to be somewhere between the extremes that all agencies like the CDC are offering.  That's the way the system is designed to work.  Except...

 

The cruise industry finds itself being controlled exclusively by the CDC in this matter.  There is no balance or compromise because the CDC is the decision maker.   The CDC only sees this from the perspective of health, not jobs, not economies, not social factors, not legal factors.   In the extreme that would be "If just one life is saved by banning cruising until 2025 then cruising shall be banned".  The CDC can choose that path because it's their decision to make.

 

The singular focus of the CDC is by design but it makes them myopic and that is preventing the cruise lines from moving forward.  It might kill the cruise industry.  

 

 

The CDC is in control in the U.S. only. Cruising is shutdown worldwide, how do yo explain that?

[Iamcruzin]

1 hour ago, centurycruiser said:

 

There's been no revenue for six and a half months. Only refunds and FCC's which will cut into future revenue. And, expenses.

I wouldn't say no revenue. There are plenty here that keep making final payments on cruises that they know won't sail just to get the 125% FCC when it is canceled and some are paying just because they booked a NRD and want the cash back instead of an FCC. There are a lot of life and shifts happening that don't require a refund. Those who have asked for a straightforward refund have been waiting for months to receive it.  It seems like the cruise lines are managing just fine borrowing from Peter to Pay Paul 60 days after Paul's cruise was canceled.

Edited June 23, 2020 by Iamcruzin

[twangster]

1 hour ago, grandgeezer said:

 

The CDC is in control in the U.S. only. Cruising is shutdown worldwide, how do yo explain that?

 

I don't try to.  This thread's subject and the posts that lead up to my comments are focused on the CDC and the U.S.

 

[A&L_Ont]

 

7 hours ago, centurycruiser said:

They've been negotiating with the cdc but the cdc is not negotiating.  Read ncl's announcement. They were frustrated....

 

If nothing is happening,  nothing can go wrong.

 

Maybe the cruise lines, just gave up for now, as their main guests for a soft opening are from Florida.  The cruise lines have one chance at this and I don’t think they would want them on board as rates tick up, even if the majority of cases seem to be in the younger demographic. 
 

As for nothing happening, nothing can go wrong... IMO that is the best approach for the cruise lines.  If they opened today it very well could be a bigger disaster than sitting in limo.  Opening too early could go badly, especially when dealing with the aged, immune compromised and the need for spacial separation. All factors that commonly found in cruising. 
 

Until cases stabilize in the states, I don’t see the CDC and the cruise lines coming to any arrangement. 
 

[Milwaukee Eight]

8 hours ago, centurycruiser said:

The cruise lines need the cdc to allow cruising in US waters. Until that happens it doesn't matter whether they want to go or not. They've been negotiating with the cdc but the cdc is not negotiating. 

The CDC already laid out what Cruise Lines need to do in the no sail order and it seems to me it was ignored. 

[ECCruise]

8 hours ago, centurycruiser said:

The cruise lines need the cdc to allow cruising in US waters. Until that happens it doesn't matter whether they want to go or not. They've been negotiating with the cdc but the cdc is not negotiating.  Read ncl's announcement. They were frustrated.

They are dealing with a government bureaucracy that is only affected if amything goes wrong. If nothing is happening,  nothing can go wrong.

The cruise lines want to open up. The alternate is bankruptcy.

Each day they don't sail costs ncl almos $18 million in revenue, Royal, $30 million a day and carnival $57 million a day.

There's been no revenue for six and a half months. Only refunds and FCC's which will cut into future revenue. And, expenses. Someone told me Carnival's expenses are $654 million a month. If that's true that's over $4 billion, that's BILLION, for the shutdown.

How long could you survive with no income for six and a half months, with no real end in sight? The cdc keeps moving the goalposts! Don't rationalize for them. They're a government bureaucracy.

There is so much to discuss in this screed but just to concentrate:

1) The CDC is designed primarily to prevent the spread of disease and I am thankful that they are not concerned about economics.

2)  Who says the "cruise lines want to open up?"  Why did they extend the shutdown until mid September?

#)  Lots of talk about money.  Not much about illness and death.

[bouhunter]

8 hours ago, centurycruiser said:

 

There's been no revenue for six and a half months.

Uh, cruising has only been shut down for 3 months...... 

[grandgeezer]

10 hours ago, twangster said:

 

I don't try to.  This thread's subject and the posts that lead up to my comments are focused on the CDC and the U.S.

 

No where, in your post I quoted, did you mention anything about it being just about the U.S. I don't care about the previous, people change their minds all the time.

[mugtech]

12 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

 

The CDC is in control in the U.S. only. Cruising is shutdown worldwide, how do yo explain that?

Conspiracy of international land lovers.

[twangster]

43 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

No where, in your post I quoted, did you mention anything about it being just about the U.S. I don't care about the previous, people change their minds all the time.

 

Yet this thread remains about the CDC.

 

In 2018 54.5% of all cruise ship passengers came from the Americas.  Without U.S. passengers and the CDC's blessing for them to cruise there is no cruise industry as we have known it.  If the CDC takes too long to allow U.S. guests to board ships the effect will be profound.   

 

Looking beyond the Americas for a moment, name one other equivalent health organization to the CDC that can single handedly all but wipe out the cruise industry.    

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

14 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

Yet this thread remains about the CDC.

 

In 2018 54.5% of all cruise ship passengers came from the Americas.  Without U.S. passengers and the CDC's blessing for them to cruise there is no cruise industry as we have known it.  If the CDC takes too long to allow U.S. guests to board ships the effect will be profound.   

 

Looking beyond the Americas for a moment, name one other equivalent health organization to the CDC that can single handedly all but wipe out the cruise industry.    

Not just the cruise industry. Most all business of any kind. They change there minds like I change my clothes. never know what the next thing is they will come up with. I personally an sick and tired of all of this. I am being watched by big brother and hate every moment of it. Those that have medical problem do what they need to do. Please let all of us that are healthy do the same. Leave me alone and let me get on with the life we all had before. I want this country back on its feet as strong as it was.

[Baron Barracuda]

I'm sure the tort lawyers are licking their lips, waiting for that first covid death after sailing resumes.  "CDC warned them, they knew there was risk but  sailed anyway!!!"

[Cruising89143]

6 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

 

Maybe the cruise lines, just gave up for now, as their main guests for a soft opening are from Florida.  The cruise lines have one chance at this and I don’t think they would want them on board as rates tick up, even if the majority of cases seem to be in the younger demographic. 
 

As for nothing happening, nothing can go wrong... IMO that is the best approach for the cruise lines.  If they opened today it very well could be a bigger disaster than sitting in limo.  Opening too early could go badly, especially when dealing with the aged, immune compromised and the need for spacial separation. All factors that commonly found in cruising. 
 

Until cases stabilize in the states, I don’t see the CDC and the cruise lines coming to any arrangement. 
 

IMHO this is the best post on this entire thread. Cruise lines know that they have one chance to get this right. I for one can wait it out. 

[20165]

11 minutes ago, cruisingator2 said:

IMHO this is the best post on this entire thread. Cruise lines know that they have one chance to get this right. I for one can wait it out. 

I agree, but there is one variable that we arent talking about.  How much longer can the cruise lines kick the can down the road?  I keep hearing they have enough cash until the end of the year and we are starting to close in on that with the last announcement...

[Biker19]

2 minutes ago, 20165 said:

How much longer can the cruise lines kick the can down the road? 

RCI had about $2B+ in cash last month with the latest round of debt offerings and are going through about $250M/month in fleet upkeep - payments on the short term debt start in Dec.

[ECCruise]

4 hours ago, 20165 said:

I agree, but there is one variable that we arent talking about.  How much longer can the cruise lines kick the can down the road?  I keep hearing they have enough cash until the end of the year and we are starting to close in on that with the last announcement...

Don't really care.

I (and millions of others I am sure) are more concerned about people's health than the cruise lines' financials. 

Thanks, but ain't dyin' for the Dow.  Or some foreign owned corporation that pays no corporate taxes.

Edited June 23, 2020 by ECCruise

[Missusdubbya]

5 hours ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

Not just the cruise industry. Most all business of any kind. They change there minds like I change my clothes. never know what the next thing is they will come up with. I personally an sick and tired of all of this. I am being watched by big brother and hate every moment of it. Those that have medical problem do what they need to do. Please let all of us that are healthy do the same. Leave me alone and let me get on with the life we all had before. I want this country back on its feet as strong as it was.

I understand citizens of the US are sad and frustrated - in Australia we are saddened by the situation you are in and we sympathise. It is truly awful.
 

I am not trying to cause offence, however it must be said that US citizens who continue to exhibit a selfish attitude, and who refuse to follow CDC health protection guidelines will cause further virus spread. The US will not be able to get ‘back on it’s feet’.
 

Of course guidelines change and adapt as the virus is better understood, that is the nature of science. It would be detrimental to effort if the CDC wasn’t changing and adapting the response with research.

Edited June 23, 2020 by Missusdubbya