I wonder how long they really can last?

[mek]

Pure speculation on everyones part, but I wonder how long the major cruise lines really can last w/o sailing? Back in the spring I was reading they had a business plan through 2020 with no cruises, but I haven't heard anything about 2021 and my guess is still nothing will be happening of any significance until late spring, (May/June.)  I would imagine they have a plan through 1st half 2021, but I'm not sure they can hold out any longer than that.

[firefly333]

Why not post this on the bankruptcy depressing thread. Now 2 threads to ignore about same thing. Why start a new thread about same subject on another thread.

 

I'm ready for some positive vibes not doom and gloomers.. ignore going forward. Dont bother to reply to me.

[bouhunter]

11 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Why not post this on the bankruptcy depressing thread. Now 2 threads to ignore about same thing. Why start a new thread about same subject on another thread.

 

I'm ready for some positive vibes not doom and gloomers.. ignore going forward. Dont bother to reply to me.

I have to agree.  Yet another thread of pointless speculation isn't necessary.

 

Although a lot of threads eventually go down that rabbit hole now....  🙂

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by bouhunter

[time4u2go]

Good question.  I've been wondering that also.  Also wondering if there's any mergers/acquisitions on the horizon.

[not-enough-cruising]

46 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

Good question.  I've been wondering that also.  Also wondering if there's any mergers/acquisitions on the horizon.

I don’t believe any of the main players are in any position to take on a merger, let alone an acquisition. Too much debt out there on everyone’s balance sheets. 

[Ashland]

Didn't RCI get a line of credit and I thought I heard about something possibly going on between them and NCL.

But agree anything we think we know/heard is just rumor's at this point. I'm not concerned about RCI they'll

pull through.

[Biker19]

1 minute ago, Ashland said:

Didn't RCI get a line of credit and I thought I heard about something possibly going on between them and NCL.

RCL got several rounds of credit lines, but none had anything to do with NCL - the main collaboration with NCL is their Healthy Sail panel.

[time4u2go]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Why not post this on the bankruptcy depressing thread. Now 2 threads to ignore about same thing. Why start a new thread about same subject on another thread.

 

I'm ready for some positive vibes not doom and gloomers.. ignore going forward. Dont bother to reply to me.

 

1 hour ago, bouhunter said:

I have to agree.  Yet another thread of pointless speculation isn't necessary.

 

Although a lot of threads eventually go down that rabbit hole now....  🙂

 

Too late! 😁

[Ashland]

16 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

RCL got several rounds of credit lines, but none had anything to do with NCL - the main collaboration with NCL is their Healthy Sail panel.

I didn't mean the credit line had anything to do with NCL.

Sorry I didn't clearly make it two separate thoughts.

Yes I know about their healthy sail panel...but someone speculated maybe more to that.

Ashland who said "rumors".

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Ashland

[TheMastodon]

1 hour ago, mek said:

Pure speculation on everyones part, but I wonder how long the major cruise lines really can last w/o sailing? Back in the spring I was reading they had a business plan through 2020 with no cruises, but I haven't heard anything about 2021 and my guess is still nothing will be happening of any significance until late spring, (May/June.)  I would imagine they have a plan through 1st half 2021, but I'm not sure they can hold out any longer than that.

Cruise companies, retail stores, restaurants, bars, etc are all figuring out how long they can last.  

[Baron Barracuda]

8 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

Cruise companies, retail stores, restaurants, bars, etc are all figuring out how long they can last.  

Don't forget the hotels, airlines, movie theaters, .......

[TheMastodon]

1 minute ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Don't forget the hotels, airlines, movie theaters, .......

Everything unless you are Walmart, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Target, Jack Dorsey, Apple, etc.  Pretty sad.  
 

Speaking of Mark Zuckerberg/Jack Dorsey I highly recommend watching Social Dilemma on Netflix.  Great documentary- might think twice about participating in social media after watching it.

[Sea Dog]

1 minute ago, TheMastodon said:

Speaking of Mark Zuckerberg/Jack Dorsey I highly recommend watching Social Dilemma on Netflix.  Great documentary- might think twice about participating in social media after watching it.

Great documentary and I highly recommend everyone watching it. I have now gotten off Google Chrome and started using more private browsers for less tracking. I've tried to stay off Facebook but I'm still addicted to my beloved Cruise Critic.

[TheMastodon]

Just now, Sea Dog said:

Great documentary and I highly recommend everyone watching it. I have now gotten off Google Chrome and started using more private browsers for less tracking. I've tried to stay off Facebook but I'm still addicted to my beloved Cruise Critic.

Facebook/Twitter/IG are rat poison as far as I’m concerned - social media is a bigger threat to our country than Covid19/politics will ever be.  

[bigrednole]

Carnival and RCL will do what is necessary to remain. If they default on the latest loans, they give up private islands. That is a massive hit and would destroy the companies. They are in line to survive through mid-2021. But much beyond that they will be in dire trouble. If covid lasts until then, we all may be in trouble. It is my opinion we just have to accept it and learn to live with it.

[yogimax]

26 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Don't forget the hotels, airlines, movie theaters, .......

Big difference...

 

Airlines are a necessity and have already received government funding.

Nothing essential about cruise lines or movie theaters

[Hoopster95]

2 hours ago, mek said:

Pure speculation on everyones part, but I wonder how long the major cruise lines really can last w/o sailing? Back in the spring I was reading they had a business plan through 2020 with no cruises, but I haven't heard anything about 2021 and my guess is still nothing will be happening of any significance until late spring, (May/June.)  I would imagine they have a plan through 1st half 2021, but I'm not sure they can hold out any longer than that.

 

In April, RCG borrowed $2.2 billion dollars at 12% to survive for one year (so assume until May 2021?), with an option for a 2nd year. For that $2.2 billion dollars, they gave up as collateral (if they default on the loan) the rights to all assets, including ships, from everything other than RCL at an approx/estimated value of $40 billion (Celebrity, Azamara... ships, assets, everything). 

 

We're now 7 months in.

 

The estimated "burn rate", the money RCL needs to spend every month to to keep staff, ships afloat, fuel, etc has been mentioned/ estimated to be between $200million - $250million. At $200 million per month, The $2.2 billion dollar loan lasts for 11 months. They had some cash on hand (deposits, etc) so several experts estimated RCG could last a little over a year without a sailing.

 

Aug 6

"Shares of Royal Caribbean jumped 10% Monday after executives said there was pent-up demand and “remarkable” bookings for its international cruises in 2021, despite reporting a $1.6 billion loss for the second quarter and a cash burn rate in excess of $250 million a month"

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/royal-caribbean-stock-jumps-as-executives-tout-remarkable-demand-for-2021-cruises.html#:~:text=Shares of Royal Caribbean jumped,of %24250 million a month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Hoopster95

[not-enough-cruising]

1 hour ago, yogimax said:

Big difference...

 

Airlines are a necessity and have already received government funding.

Nothing essential about cruise lines or movie theaters

NOTHING essential about airlines 

[mek]

2 hours ago, time4u2go said:

 

Too late! 😁

I always have to laugh at people who get upset about the contents of threads.  If someone doesn't think they are necessary, simply don't read them.

It really is strange that anyone is getting their panties in a wad right concerning repetitive threads - since April it's pretty much been the same stuff over and over and over.

We are running out of topics to discuss.

[Billy Baltic]

I’m glad to see this thread. The old thread has gone flat and it’s probably the most valid topic - should people place deposits that they may lose. 
With regard to people complaining that it’s a duplicate thread, as far as I can see every thread is a duplicate since cruising stopped. Even recently there were two threads about the itinerary changes for 2021, L&S, COVID testing, etc. 

[Hoopster95]

1 minute ago, Billy Baltic said:

Even recently there were two threads about the itinerary changes for 2021, L&S, COVID testing, etc. 

 

I feel that the lack of discussion regarding the current debt load on RCG and all cruise lines as I mentioned is deplorable.

I guess it shows how the current North American culture feels about debt... borrow until you're dead, then you don't owe anything.... meanwhile the lender is stealing 12% of everything you owe (ie. like credit card debt) until you default so they're at least being made close to whole as you sink, and then they take over all the assets anyways.

 

Perfect economics.

[mek]

49 minutes ago, Billy Baltic said:

I’m glad to see this thread. The old thread has gone flat and it’s probably the most valid topic - should people place deposits that they may lose. 
With regard to people complaining that it’s a duplicate thread, as far as I can see every thread is a duplicate since cruising stopped. Even recently there were two threads about the itinerary changes for 2021, L&S, COVID testing, etc. 

The answer for me is, "no."  Other than my L&S, which I only did because my deposit was non refundable, I have no intention of giving any cruise line more of my money until they can get things back up and running and demonstrate to me  that they still have a product  I want.

I sincerely hope they do, but I'm not interested in keeping them afloat with my money as the future of cruising is so uncertain.

[Nunagoras]

39 minutes ago, mek said:

The answer for me is, "no."  Other than my L&S, which I only did because my deposit was non refundable, I have no intention of giving any cruise line more of my money until they can get things back up and running and demonstrate to me  that they still have a product  I want.

I sincerely hope they do, but I'm not interested in keeping them afloat with my money as the future of cruising is so uncertain.

This is exactly what me and many others think about all of this. Give me facts that they have a solid product that interest me or they are out of my money! As simple as that. MSC is starting to, at least minimally to convince me here in Europe. But it is the unique one really doing so for now. Let the others to really approach and we will see... Solid protocols for safe travels now and in the post Covid era? OK!... Come them. Meanwhile what we have are more or less good intentions... Of those is our world full! Period!...

 

Oh!... And let us not to talk about what this winter seems prepared to offer us. I hope that by the next May or June we can still to be here over discussing these things... But I'm very pessimistic about it. Even if a true and valid vaccine comes, it won't to be magically given to everybody the next day. Come the flu season well in force joined with this Covid thing and in a few days we will talking just about another world unfortunately...

[voyager70]

58 minutes ago, mek said:

The answer for me is, "no."  Other than my L&S, which I only did because my deposit was non refundable, I have no intention of giving any cruise line more of my money until they can get things back up and running and demonstrate to me  that they still have a product  I want.

I sincerely hope they do, but I'm not interested in keeping them afloat with my money as the future of cruising is so uncertain.

 

My thoughts exactly

 

[Baron Barracuda]

3 hours ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

In April, RCG borrowed $2.2 billion dollars at 12% to survive for one year (so assume until May 2021?), with an option for a 2nd year. For that $2.2 billion dollars, they gave up as collateral (if they default on the loan) the rights to all assets, including ships, from everything other than RCL at an approx/estimated value of $40 billion (Celebrity, Azamara... ships, assets, everything). 

 

We're now 7 months in.

 

The estimated "burn rate", the money RCL needs to spend every month to to keep staff, ships afloat, fuel, etc has been mentioned/ estimated to be between $200million - $250million. At $200 million per month, The $2.2 billion dollar loan lasts for 11 months. They had some cash on hand (deposits, etc) so several experts estimated RCG could last a little over a year without a sailing.

 

Aug 6

"Shares of Royal Caribbean jumped 10% Monday after executives said there was pent-up demand and “remarkable” bookings for its international cruises in 2021, despite reporting a $1.6 billion loss for the second quarter and a cash burn rate in excess of $250 million a month"

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/royal-caribbean-stock-jumps-as-executives-tout-remarkable-demand-for-2021-cruises.html#:~:text=Shares of Royal Caribbean jumped,of %24250 million a month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

RCL actually issued $3.3B in May and a further $2.0B in June.  That should keep them afloat (pun intended) for most of 2021.  With stock having having recovered from March low of $19 to $68 today  might be good time to fatten cash position by issuing a boatload (pun again intended) of shares through secondary offering.  Survival of company is more important than diluting current shareholders.