Fain Now Says Vaccines, Not New Protocols Will Allow Cruising To Restart

[ace2542]

16 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

And the reason why the protocols will remain and a vaccine will be required is their is no data yet if one vaccinated can spread the virus or how long the immune response will last. 
 

When will one will need another dose or booster shot to continue to fight off the virus?  Once herd immunity is reached, could be years, then life may get back to somewhat normal. 
 

M8

Facui quoted in  NY Post today as saying U.S might reach so called herd immunity by second quarter of 2021. If that statement holds water then the question becomes does it affect the CDC sailing order regarding 7 nights or less. And also does the Facui statement suggest a timeline as to when U.S travel bans will be lifted? Because cruising will struggle to resume in many respects without those 2 things.

Edited December 15, 2020 by ace2542

[Ocean Boy]

19 minutes ago, mek said:

 I don't even think that will include children.  What will people do who want to take a family cruise but can't because their children haven't been vaccinated?  (Assuming that will be a requirement to sail.)

 

I guess that fixes the issue of kids in the solarium.😉

[jean87510]

28 minutes ago, mek said:

Until recently I think they thought they knew, but now it's becoming apparent to them that cruising isn't going to start up w/o a vaccine.

It's going to take well into the summer for everyone who wants the vaccine to be able to get it - and I don't even think that will include children.  What will people do who want to take a family cruise but can't because their children haven't been vaccinated?  (Assuming that will be a requirement to sail.)

 

If required, simply if not vaccinated, you dont go.  If you allow exceptions, it becomes a nightmare.  You take family on a land vacation.  

 

I don't think it will go well into the summer for those who want vaccine.  But that's my guess.  My sons who work at a local hospital are signed up to receive this week or next.  We arent sure which one.  They are in their 20's but work with cancer patients through all of this so they are pretty excited about getting vaccinated for their jobs.  My nursing agency is aiming for end of January for those who want it. 

Edited December 15, 2020 by jean87510

[mek]

6 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I guess that fixes the issue of kids in the solarium.😉

LOL

[Formula280SS]

9 hours ago, twangster said:

They are too big for their creditors to let them fail.  Well, if the US FED hadn't intervened in their bonds, they wouldn't even here currently.  Their was no appetite for, at the time the junk bond assessments of the cruise lines.  That only changed with the intervention.  Also, their creditors are not simply banks, they are ruthless, cunning and downright nasty hedge funds specifically noted for trouble debt market investments.  With light in the tunnel it isn't bleak at all.  Well, the burn and NOL monthly rates can only make it to June 30th just to survive an attempt in the 3rd quarter.  They will need more money, at a time, likely for use in 2021, they will be out of compliance with so many of the debt covenants they'll be at the mercy of the creditors (aka predators if you take a look at who these funds are that bought the debt and their track record).

 

Cruisers will be fine.  Possibly, and I hope so; but those customer deposit concern me if the creditors get involved. Stockholders in for the long term are fine (in a decade).  If they make it to 2022 and the passenger volumes regain their 2019 levels and assent trajectory.  If you are new to the stock roller coaster ride you might avoid a loss, maybe.  IMO, those new to the stock roller coaster shouldn't be investing in cruise stocks at this time.

 

It will be months but ships will sail again.  The question is who will own the cruise lines at that time?

 

In other words the stock may drop again but that won't be the end.  At this point, the stocks of the cruise lines, adjusted for the 2020 equity issuances and the MIN and MAX forward equity of the convertible notes also issued in 2020, puts NCLH for example, at almost twice the forward diluted shares from 2019.  With a historic PPS high of $60, halved for such, that is $30.  Recently the PPS > $28.  IMO, that is absurd as it represents 90-95% of the adjusted forward high for business that is burning cash and incurring $200-$250 a month in losses.  Which looks to be the case well into late 2021.

 

Just IMO. 

 

 

Just IMO.

 

Breaking now...

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24047-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-to-raise-another-500-million.html

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings To Raise Another $500 Million

December 15, 2020

Edited December 15, 2020 by Formula280SS

[mek]

1 minute ago, jean87510 said:

If required, simply if not vaccinated, you dont go.  If you allow exceptions, it becomes a nightmare.  You take family on a land vacation.  

 

I don't think it will go well into the summer for those who want vaccine.  But that's my guess.  My sons who work at a local hospital are signed up to receive this week or next.  We arent sure which one.  They are in their 20's but work with cancer patients through all of this so they are pretty excited about getting vaccinated for their jobs.  My nursing agency is aiming for end of January for those who want it.  I

I hope by March we can get the vaccine.  I'm 70 and my husband is considerably older but we can be patient and wait our turn.  Maybe it will be sooner, and that would be great. 

[A&L_Ont]

23 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

RCI won't be here this time next year if cruising doesn't resume you know by summer at the very latest. And if they have to shut the down ship for 1 case after it does resume they either enforce vaccination and mask wearing to their best to prevent that for as long as the demand of shut down if one case is discovered remains. Or just close down. And how long can they operate at 50% full or 60% full or operate without attempting to fill any many cabins as they can for each cruise? Not very long by the sounds of it.

 

With that optimism you may as well log out of CC and never return.

Edited December 15, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[A&L_Ont]

duplicate

Edited December 15, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[bouhunter]

22 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

 And if they have to shut the down ship for 1 case after it does resume they either enforce vaccination and mask wearing to their best to prevent that for as long as the demand of shut down if one case is discovered remains. 

Gotta' love that sentence structure 🙂

 

[ace2542]

3 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

With that optimism, you may as well logo out and never come back to CC.

Why it is not like they can sail with less fuel because of less passengers I don't think it works like that. And they are not made of money. Some of these firms are having their credit ratings reduced.

[not-enough-cruising]

14 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

You have told us that. You have also told us that we will be wearing masks forever...and ever... and ever.

And he also told us about the warning sticker on your microwave telling you “not to put your poodle in the microwave”

[Milwaukee Eight]

1 hour ago, mek said:

Well if everyone is  required to be vaccinated in order to sail then it won't make much difference if people can spread the virus or not - at least on a ship.

I realize there might be up to  10% who could still come down with Covid, but at that point it wouldn't be necessary to quarantine the ship - they could simply treat sick passengers.

And again, that’s the crux with the CDC and should be. What are they going to do with the infected cruisers. I think it’s been clear from the beginning with the CDC that they don’t want cruise ships dumping off infected or exposed passengers/crew in US Ports.  The cruise lines still don’t want to address this. 
 

M8

[Milwaukee Eight]

57 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

With that optimism you may as well log out of CC and never return.

This ^1

[not-enough-cruising]

1 hour ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

With that optimism you may as well log out of CC and never return.

Seconded 

[Yorkvillain]

Step away from the computer Ace. Step away from the computer. 

[A&L_Ont]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

Why it is not like they can sail with less fuel because of less passengers I don't think it works like that. And they are not made of money. Some of these firms are having their credit ratings reduced.

 

The RC ships are not randomly sailing the around the Caribbean burning huge amounts of bunker.  They are currently staffed with a skeleton crew.  Their money burn is at its lowest possible amount.  It has been said here on CC, that RC has enough funds to last until approximately December 2021 with no cruises happening.  

 

Vaccines by next summer should be available to many, if not all, and hopefully life will be returning to some normality by then. When they are available, trial sailings will start with a few select ships. They will start slowly and if successful then bring another ship on-line and go from there. It has also been reported that ships need to be at 40% to break even.  With low capacity and success they can slowly return over a period of time. I have always said they only have one shot a this.  They need to do it right the first time because there is no third, fourth, fifth attempt of failure upon failure. 

 

If you truly feel that they are lined up for failure and will never sail again, I make the same statement again to you... With that optimism you may as well log out of CC and never return.

 

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[twangster]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

Some of these firms are having their credit ratings reduced.

 

Entire countries have their credit rating reduced all the time.  They're still here.

 

1 hour ago, Formula280SS said:

their creditors are not simply banks, they are ruthless, cunning and downright nasty hedge funds specifically noted for trouble debt market investments. 

 

 

I think you are confusing creditors and investors.  They are not the same.     

[Formula280SS]

 

Quote

I think you are confusing creditors and investors.  They are not the same.     

 

No, I'm not confused in the least.  Semantics and perspective.

 

I was referring to creditors (those that bought the cruise line debt instruments; you can call them investors if you define their purchase of the debt instruments investments, which is fine) versus equity shareholders (non-creditors).

 

Further, many calmly think of creditors as cooperative, lending banks.

 

The ones involved with the cruise lines (invested in the debt if you want, i.e., bondholders, i.e., creditors) are reputably predatory.

Edited December 15, 2020 by Formula280SS

[island lady]

20 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

You have told us that. You have also told us that we will be wearing masks forever...and ever... and ever.

 

I had my annual eye doctor appointment this morning...had to wear sunglasses afterwards due to dilation.  So here I am in my black mask, and my huge sunglasses, going into the grocery store....looking a bit sinister I guess.  😉 

[pcur]

8 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

And the reason why the protocols will remain and a vaccine will be required is their is no data yet if one vaccinated can spread the virus or how long the immune response will last. 
 

When will one will need another dose or booster shot to continue to fight off the virus?  Once herd immunity is reached, could be years, then life may get back to somewhat normal. 
 

M8

 

What I've read is after the 2 initial shots, immunity is 3-6 months.  Like any other vaccine, you would get them on a regular basis, so I would expect the covid19 will become part of annual flu shots going forward.

[MamaFej]

8 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I believe his reference to “Groundhog Day” was about the 1993 Movie Groundhog Day where the lead actor Bill Murray woke up every morning reliving the same day over and over again until he got it right. 
 

M8

It is important to note that "got it right" means that he stopped making everything about himself and what he wanted and instead focused on doing the right thing for others. Doing the right thing for others helped him to get what he wanted all along. 

When many more of us do the right things, taking mitigation measures seriously so we can stop spreading the virus, we, too, will be able to move on. 

[cruisequeen4ever]

If cruise lines require vaccination to cruise, then not only would children be unable to cruise but also those allergic to the vaccine! IMO, It should be that the vaccine will help inoculate enough of the population that normal life will be able to resume, not that one must get the vaccine in order to be able to cruise. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 hours ago, MamaFej said:

It is important to note that "got it right" means that he stopped making everything about himself and what he wanted and instead focused on doing the right thing for others. Doing the right thing for others helped him to get what he wanted all along. 

When many more of us do the right things, taking mitigation measures seriously so we can stop spreading the virus, we, too, will be able to move on. 

Be responsible for yourself, that’s what we are doing. 
 

M8

[jean87510]

42 minutes ago, cruisequeen4ever said:

If cruise lines require vaccination to cruise, then not only would children be unable to cruise but also those allergic to the vaccine! IMO, It should be that the vaccine will help inoculate enough of the population that normal life will be able to resume, not that one must get the vaccine in order to be able to cruise. 

I understand your point.  I dont know every component of the vaccine to know what I or anyone would be allergic to.  Plus, I am definitely in the camp of having everyone vaccinated including children.  If this virus is serious enough to close down schools, then why would a parent NOT want their child vaccinated?  

There have been outbreaks of measles, mumps, pertussis and other illnesses in the past few years all because parents were afraid or unwilling to vaccinate.  These kids could have easily spread those illnesses to seniors and others.  So while it may not seem fair that some families may not be able to go if they haven't received their covid vaccine, it really isn't fair to expect the rest of us to accept non vaccinated people on a cruise ship especially when they have not been operating for a pandemic.

[Tree_skier]

9 hours ago, twangster said:

 

Entire countries have their credit rating reduced all the time.  They're still here.

Exactly, the last time I checked, Greece was still a country/