Passenger Vaccine Requirement up next?

[LGW59]

1 hour ago, Ken the cruiser said:

I believe the latest 7 day rolling average for vaccinating folks in the US is now at 1.7 million per day and steadily growing more each day with Feb 16th's count at over 2.3 million.

 

Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout: State by State - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Obviously no expert here, just an armchair Dr. Fauci, but I just cannot believe that cruising will resume in 2021.  😥

[K.T.B.]

1 hour ago, LGW59 said:

Obviously no expert here, just an armchair Dr. Fauci, but I just cannot believe that cruising will resume in 2021.  😥

 

I'm still optimistic.  They need the daily vaccinations to reach 3 million a day to reach a goal of having every eligible person vaccinated by July.  IF that does happen, I still think by October the Caribbean cruises start and by December it's full on cruising at every US port that would normally have a cruise departing in that month, albeit with some potential adjustments.  By 2022, it's mostly back to normal.

Edited February 17, 2021 by K.T.B.

[markeb]

7 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

I'm still optimistic.  They need the daily vaccinations to reach 3 million a day to reach a goal of having every eligible person vaccinated by July.  IF that does happen, I still think by October the Caribbean cruises start and by December it's full on cruising at every US port that would normally have a cruise departing in that month, albeit with some potential adjustments.  By 2022, it's mostly back to normal.

 

I'm going to be honest here. Cruising is a total luxury leisure activity. I don't see cruising restarting in the United States for 3-6 months after hotels are operating at full capacity, and restaurants in places like New York and San Francisco are also open at full capacity, etc.. Those are both mixed business and leisure activities that bring large number of people together, usually for shorter periods of time than a cruise. And I recognize that the cruise industry employees a significant number of people and that various places around the country depend to a large degree on the cruise industry. It's probably 90 days or more after you reach critical mass on vaccination to really judge that you're at a low enough steady state. So that's October with a July vaccination target. People will give up on restrictions before then, but that doesn't mean a return to cruising. December might be in reach if everything goes perfectly.

 

That may sound pessimistic, but I think it's realistic.

[TeeRick]

8 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

I'm going to be honest here. Cruising is a total luxury leisure activity. I don't see cruising restarting in the United States for 3-6 months after hotels are operating at full capacity, and restaurants in places like New York and San Francisco are also open at full capacity, etc.. Those are both mixed business and leisure activities that bring large number of people together, usually for shorter periods of time than a cruise. And I recognize that the cruise industry employees a significant number of people and that various places around the country depend to a large degree on the cruise industry. It's probably 90 days or more after you reach critical mass on vaccination to really judge that you're at a low enough steady state. So that's October with a July vaccination target. People will give up on restrictions before then, but that doesn't mean a return to cruising. December might be in reach if everything goes perfectly.

 

That may sound pessimistic, but I think it's realistic.

Yes likely realistic.  And the biggest factor is actually get all of the crew vaccinated.  I just cannot see that happening until late 2021.

[paulh84]

If the US keeps on pace I think it's feasible that by mid-year the population would be in a reasonably safe position to start talking resuming service. 

 

However, crew is the big question mark. I have a feeling there will be several layers of issues that complicate getting crew willing to work, getting them vaccinated and getting them onboard. 

[K.T.B.]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Yes likely realistic.  And the biggest factor is actually get all of the crew vaccinated.  I just cannot see that happening until late 2021.

 

As i said....  

[Ken the cruiser]

3 hours ago, LGW59 said:

Obviously no expert here, just an armchair Dr. Fauci, but I just cannot believe that cruising will resume in 2021.  😥

Sure it will. Think optimistically! 🙃 We have cruises booked in May (Alaska), July (Caribbean), October (Northern Europe and a TA), and in December (Antarctica). The vaccines are starting to flow and we will all be cruising once again before you know it!

 

Worst case, we're having fun booking cruises, booking excursions with any cruise line OBC we get with the booking, and maybe even book airfare through the cruise lines when it becomes available. Then, if a cruise gets cancelled, oh well, focus on the next one. 😉

[Jeremiah1212]

Add Crystal to the list of lines requiring a vaccine:

 

https://www.travelpulse.com/news/cruise/crystal-to-require-proof-of-covid-19-vaccinations-to-cruise.html

[NCHPcruiser]

I received an email from Crystal this afternoon regarding their vaccination requirements.  All passengers must be fully vaccinated a minimum of two weeks prior to sail date.    I am not surprised by this considering the average age of their passengers is older than Celebrity’s.

[lyndarra]

On 2/18/2021 at 9:19 AM, paulh84 said:

If the US keeps on pace I think it's feasible that by mid-year the population would be in a reasonably safe position to start talking resuming service. 

 

 

And the rest of the world? Will there be places to cruise to?

Myself, I see cruising as a pleasant way to visit other places. A cruise to nowhere is not for me. Period. But cruising is not about me. Will these other places be ready to accept cruise ships? Since the pandemic, cruising has received a lot of bad press, warranted or not. It wouldn't take much for a grandstanding politician in a foreign country to re-start the "floating petri dish" mantra to see a continuing ban.

Let's hope not.

[goofysmom99]

Thinking about the thousands and thousands and thousands of doses Royal Caribbean Group will need to vaccinate the crewmembers across all brands (i.e., Symphony OTS has almost as many crewmembers as the Summit has pax), will RCG have to compete with nations for those doses?  

[paulh84]

1 hour ago, lyndarra said:

And the rest of the world? Will there be places to cruise to?

Myself, I see cruising as a pleasant way to visit other places. A cruise to nowhere is not for me. Period. But cruising is not about me. Will these other places be ready to accept cruise ships? Since the pandemic, cruising has received a lot of bad press, warranted or not. It wouldn't take much for a grandstanding politician in a foreign country to re-start the "floating petri dish" mantra to see a continuing ban.

Let's hope not.

I think there will be a very slow start among a few ships and a very few ports willing to take ships at first.

 

36 minutes ago, goofysmom99 said:

Thinking about the thousands and thousands and thousands of doses Royal Caribbean Group will need to vaccinate the crewmembers across all brands (i.e., Symphony OTS has almost as many crewmembers as the Summit has pax), will RCG have to compete with nations for those doses?  

I know Crystal isn’t an apples to apples comparison since their ships are much smaller, but their FAQ document does imply they would entertain a restart without a fully vaccinated crew due to challenges with vaccine availability in the crews home countries. Masks and social distancing measures would remain in place until it was appropriate to relax guidelines. 

[LGW59]

3 minutes ago, paulh84 said:

I think there will be a very slow start among a few ships and a very few ports willing to take ships at first.

 

I know Crystal isn’t an apples to apples comparison since their ships are much smaller, but their FAQ document does imply they would entertain a restart without a fully vaccinated crew due to challenges with vaccine availability in the crews home countries. Masks and social distancing measures would remain in place until it was appropriate to relax guidelines. 

This is VERY highly unlikely, the countries/ports they stop at will have a big say in this.

[scpirate]

On 2/12/2021 at 7:10 PM, phoenix_dream said:

I hope so as well.  I just have serious reservations about the US's ability to administrate something like this.  Lines at the drivers license renewal stations in our area were 2-3 hours long - when they were open.  Efficiency is not our government's strong point.

You should move.covid made these easier for us.they are actually organized for the first time.

[LGW59]

8 minutes ago, scpirate said:

You should move.covid made these easier for us.they are actually organized for the first time.

WTH does this even mean?

[WestLakeGirl]

I hope that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine will make it Waaaaay easier to vaccinate crew....no waiting to schedule and administer a second dose

[TeeRick]

17 minutes ago, WestLakeGirl said:

I hope that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine will make it Waaaaay easier to vaccinate crew....no waiting to schedule and administer a second dose

Good point for the crew and for many of us passengers too.  But it has only been approved in the US and the doses are very limited at least for now.

[WestLakeGirl]

But it was only approved in the last two days. The next month should bring lots

[TeeRick]

7 minutes ago, WestLakeGirl said:

But it was only approved in the last two days. The next month should bring lots

Yes hopefully.  Some hopeful communication about 20 million doses by the end of March.  And 1 dose = 1 person fully vaccinated.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/26/jj-board-member-says-20-million-covid-vaccine-doses-will-be-delivered-by-the-end-of-march.html

[cruisestitch]

I have asked this question in another thread but I will throw it out here too, what of children? Right now they cannot get a vaccine.  Should Cruising start up before they are allowed to, does that in essence mean that it would be adults only Cruising?

[TeeRick]

Just now, cruisestitch said:

I have asked this question in another thread but I will throw it out here too, what of children? Right now they cannot get a vaccine.  Should Cruising start up before they are allowed to, does that in essence mean that it would be adults only Cruising?

Very good question but really no answer about cruising.  Just speculation.  So here is mine.

Trials are being done right now for children in stages and progressively down in age (see link below).  First group is adolescents.  Studies will be careful and slow with a lot of safety data required to go to the next age group down. Not anything for infants/toddlers planned for quite some time.  So it is likely that for a year or two parents might need to cruise without kids in tow - or choose a different vacation.  All on the premise that vaccines will be required for cruising.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6532/874

[WestLakeGirl]

And I am wondering about those who cannot get the vaccine for medical reasons? I guess that means they are eliminated from Cruising too?

[Arizona Wildcat]

On 2/18/2021 at 5:52 PM, paulh84 said:

I think there will be a very slow start among a few ships and a very few ports willing to take ships at first.

 

I know Crystal isn’t an apples to apples comparison since their ships are much smaller, but their FAQ document does imply they would entertain a restart without a fully vaccinated crew due to challenges with vaccine availability in the crews home countries. Masks and social distancing measures would remain in place until it was appropriate to relax guidelines. 

Won't happen.  What port is going to accept passengers or crew that have not been vaccinated?

 

RCI and many thousands of companies will eventually purchase vaccine for their employees.  Probably late fall.  Crew will likely be vaccinated and quaranteen on board.

[Arizona Wildcat]

1 hour ago, WestLakeGirl said:

And I am wondering about those who cannot get the vaccine for medical reasons? I guess that means they are eliminated from Cruising too?

Since there are some dozen vaccines that are or will be available shortly, only a very very few will be unable to take any of the vaccines for medical reasons as ingredients vary.

[deadzone1003]

Right now, the USA have ordered and set to receive enough vaccines for 400,000,000 people by the end of July, not sure about the last 100,000,000 doses from Moderna or Pfizer.  These vaccines are for adults only (though it might not be hard to swap them with children's vaccine when available).  The USA has a population of 330,000,000.  Roughly half the population of the USA if surveys are accurate are hesitant about taking the vaccine. Once half the population is vaccinated, demand for the vaccine will start falling.  I suspect the drop in demand to begin sometime in May or June.  The maximum demand for adult's vaccine is, at most 250,000,000 full vaccinations (not doses), and that may be because of vaccine requirements for travel and employment.  Not included are the children under puberty who will need their own vaccine and the anti-vaxxers, plus a small group of people hesitant taking any vaccine without that much history.  What are we going to do with these extra 150,000,000 full vaccines (not doses)?  This doesn't include deals we made with Astra-Zeneca and Novavax where the USA had ordered 100,000,000 doses each provided they are approved.  I think the USA will be selling these surplus vaccines as well as giving them away as aid to other countries by sometime during the summer, most likely July.  This is assuming production does not hit any snags or the USA postpones its delivery of vaccines.   So, theoretically, the crews could be vaccinated sometime this summer, but the problem will be destinations may take alot longer to re-open.