What level of infection is acceptable

[NJ&Ozzie]

22 minutes ago, JT1962 said:

Our concern is more about how it will be handled onboard rather than the number of cases. If they still quarantine everyone on the ship for 2 weeks or more if there is one positive case onboard, then we will not cruise again until Covid-19 is no longer an issue or they no longer quarantine the entire ship. We aren’t as worried about getting the virus as we are being stranded on the ship away from home, work, etc. because someone else tested positive.

Agree, this is more of a real concern. How will RC handle things if there are some confirmed cases while on the ship?  Will RC have a protocol for if there are some confirmed cases while cruising? 

NJ 

[Biker19]

9 minutes ago, rimmit said:

The 7 day rolling average is more indicative of what is currently happening and not historically.   Sweden is not bottoming out like most countries have started to, even the us. Instead the are just hovering.

The curve may not be exactly the same shape as other places but this sure looks like they are slowly bottoming out:

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Biker19

[Sunshine3601]

IMO this virus is not going away.   It is just something we will all have to learn to live with just like we do with the various strains of the flu and many other viruses out there.     Hopefully, we get a vaccine but the chances of that working for every single person is highly unlikely.     I think the best option is to continue to hope for various medications to treat the symptoms and lower the death rate.     Eventually, cruising will restart and everyone will have to decide for themselves whether or not they want to risk of getting sick (with whatever is out there).     Many cause death - heck watch the tv commericals for various medicines that "may cause death".   Off track sorry.     I think it is very possible that covid will be among us when we all travel in the future.   We just have to take precautions and know best way to treat for various type of people.

[Tree_skier]

17 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

Some praised Sweden for it's approach to herd immunity. I think they made a huge mistake. Every life should matter, regardless of age or underlying health condition.

Sweden's high death rate is more a reflection of their socialized healthcare system that was inadequate for the method they chose to combat the virus.  Their hospitals were overwhelmed.  US and Canadian Hospitals have never come close to being overwhelmed.

[flyguyjake]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

[flyguyjake]

1 minute ago, Tree_skier said:

US and Canadian Hospitals have never come close to being overwhelmed.

Um yes some hospitals in NY were definitely overwhelmed.

[Georgia_Peaches]

I can hardly keep up with my own country, much less how others are handling it.  From the looks of things right now, people here think it's over.  Time will tell pretty quickly, I'm sure.

[lenquixote66]

2 hours ago, partiamo said:

I do not have a cruise until next April, but I started wondering what level of covid infection would be acceptable and I would still go on a cruise?  For example, by my calculation there are some 300 cruises scheduled for August and September 2020 in the Caribbean.  From 3 days on up.  It seems to me, no matter what protocols are in place, there will be some level of infection on these cruises, just as there is, and will be, some level throughout the US.  So, what level would people find acceptable and still go on the cruise?

 

1.  Would it be one case on any cruise?

2.  Would it be only X% of all cruises, even if but one case?

3.  Would it be a number not to exceed X% on any and all ships?

4.  Or something else I have not considered?

 

I would love to hear your comments.

My expectation is to not cruise somewhere between infinity and never.

[Tree_skier]

3 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

Um yes some hospitals in NY were definitely overwhelmed.

Uh no... Javitts center was largely unused and the hospital ship that sailed into the harbor left with it hardly being touched.  The capacity to take everyone who has needed hospitalization and intubation was never challenged.  In Sweden it is a completely different story. Government healthcare has killed people in Sweden.  Their method to attack the virus could have had a different outcome had they had the ability to be as flexible with their healthcare delivery as the US has.

[harkinmr]

2 hours ago, partiamo said:

I do not have a cruise until next April, but I started wondering what level of covid infection would be acceptable and I would still go on a cruise?  For example, by my calculation there are some 300 cruises scheduled for August and September 2020 in the Caribbean.  From 3 days on up.  It seems to me, no matter what protocols are in place, there will be some level of infection on these cruises, just as there is, and will be, some level throughout the US.  So, what level would people find acceptable and still go on the cruise?

 

1.  Would it be one case on any cruise?

2.  Would it be only X% of all cruises, even if but one case?

3.  Would it be a number not to exceed X% on any and all ships?

4.  Or something else I have not considered?

 

I would love to hear your comments.

Acceptable to who?  Us as individual cruisers?  What does "acceptable" mean?  In the long run, only the CDC (and other applicable governmental authorities) will be the determiner(s) of what is acceptable.  We can all speculate as the clear NON-experts we are, but it doesn't matter.  Whether it's 1 case or 100 cases, how the cruise lines deal with it will be determined by governmental authorities, and I'm afraid that one sizable outbreak, if not handled properly, will be the death-knell for the industry.  I'll go even further to say that even it an outbreak is handled perfectly there will be an outcry of public concern that will stop cruising in its tracks again.  And our opinions will matter naught when that happens.

[rimmit]

13 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

The curve may not be exactly the same shape as other places but this sure looks like they are slowly bottoming out:

 

No, this is bottoming out. 

 

 

[Billy Baltic]

56 minutes ago, partiamo said:

Sorry if I did not explain that well.  As I mentioned, I have a cruise in April.  I will be looking at the experience that happens between August and December to determine whether I make final payment.  So, I wondered what should I expect between August and December.  I think it unreasonable to assume out of the thousands of cruises in those 5 months no one will catch the virus on any cruise.  That somehow cruise ships will be totally immune to the virus.  Even giving strict protocols in place (which we do not yet know what they are).

 

So I wanted to get an idea whether folks thought there is some acceptable level of covid cases on cruise ships.  For some people, it would be zero, that is, they would not go on a cruise if a single person on a single ship came down with the virus.  I would not apply that test to my going on a cruise.  However, I have not determined what level I would accept.  For instance if less than 1% of people came down with the virus on less than 10% of cruises would that be OK.

 

So, I wanted to get an idea about how others on this board would look at this situation.  Hope that is a better explanation.

I agree. While it still exists somewhere, it’s only a matter of time until a case appears on a cruise ship. For me the case rate is less important than what the procedures are to deal with it. I did a lift and shift to see how the situation develops. Our next cruise is now June 2021. We will not be cruising if a positive test during the cruise results in:

- being left in a random port at RC’s whim

- running the risk of being quarantined onboard past the end of the cruise

- the possibility of a country denying you access to medical care (as happened a few months ago) or denied exit from the ship. 
 

The industry has to have a clear and transparent process for dealing with positive results which caters to the needs of the infected along with everyone else.

[Jimbo]

45 minutes ago, JT1962 said:

Our concern is more about how it will be handled onboard rather than the number of cases. If they still quarantine everyone on the ship for 2 weeks or more if there is one positive case onboard, then we will not cruise again until Covid-19 is no longer an issue or they no longer quarantine the entire ship. We aren’t as worried about getting the virus as we are being stranded on the ship away from home, work, etc. because someone else tested positive.

That is the million dollar question :  What will be the protocol when  one person is confirmed with the virus?

Will the cruise end and everyone  be quarantined on the ship into their cabins and the ship sail directly to it's destination ending port?

If that is what the protocol will be I have other better things to do with my vacation time and vacation spending money then chance a cruise.

I believe it's going to have to get alot more safer to have cruise ships sailing again.............and right now things aren't even close to sailing again.

I don't care what other cruiselines are saying (Carnival) CDC will not let them sail from USA in the current situation.

Edited June 2, 2020 by Jimbo

[Georgia_Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Billy Baltic said:

The industry has to have a clear and transparent process for dealing with positive results which caters to the needs of the infected along with everyone else.

Yup and until that is hashed out to everyone's satisfaction (CDC) no cruising will begin...But, I do think that once the protocols have been established and successfully followed, further shut downs of the entire cruising industry are unlikely.  Like everything else, this virus will eventually become common place to the masses.

[Biker19]

11 minutes ago, rimmit said:

No, this is bottoming out. 

 

We are talking about deaths, not new cases - new cases is no longer a very useful metric mainly because it has been going up in a lot places simply because of more testing. The comparable Norway curve is this:

 

 

I already conceded that the shape may not be same same (slower drop off) but it is nonetheless droping and at the end of the day the overall death rate is probably more meaningful.

Edited June 2, 2020 by Biker19

[Ourusualbeach]

30 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

The curve may not be exactly the same shape as other places but this sure looks like they are slowly bottoming out:

 

Looking at a graph like that it just screams inaccuracies in reporting and does not give a true daily picture of what actually happened but still shows the overall trend and shape of the curve.  Like you stated its dropping off.

[WAMarathoner]

30 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

Some don't ever know they've had it and some young and healthy die.

The "young" cases were not healthy.  The media likes to report on those few under-30s that have died.  What they forget to say is that, while they had COVID, they died from leukemia, heart failure, and other diseases.

 

If you have a BMI over 40, please stay home.  Excepting a "bear" cruise that we were unfortunately stuck on, I can only think of 3 or 4 cases in all our cruises that morbidly obese people went on.  That's the #1 risk factor and it is far and away more indicative of death than any other condition.

[Biker19]

1 minute ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Looking at a graph like that it just screams inaccuracies in reporting

People are not allowed to die on Sundays.

[crzndeb]

Does anybody know if there has been a breakdown of age groups, and how many healthy individuals died in those age groups? 

[Biker19]

Just now, crzndeb said:

Does anybody know if there has been a breakdown of age groups, and how many healthy individuals died in those age groups? 

Some US states have those stats - not sure about the country stats.

[d9704011]

4 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

People are not allowed to die on Sundays.

A better graph is one that plots a rolling five day average.  That tends to smooth out the extremes due to weekend reporting (or not).

[Biker19]

11 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Looking at a graph like that it just screams inaccuracies

The active case one for Norway:

 

[livingonthebeach]

Scylla, a German river cruise line resumed river sailings today, June 2nd.  Here are their new protocols (apologize for the length).  It is likely other cruise lines will follow some of these new procedures -- not a fun cruise with all these measures IMHO.  Since most river cruise ships don't have elevators, casinos, theaters and pools - these were not addressed.  The required mask is not going to go over too well with all passengers and neither is the isolation of passengers who have the virus and the dropping off of infected passengers at a port of their choosing. 

 

Guest embarkation

• Scylla will request that its tour operators to investigate the whereabouts and physical health of guests before boarding the ship by means of a questionnaire.
• Scylla will require a pre-boarding statement from the tour operator confirming the validated health checks for all passengers participating in the journey, ensuring all passengers being fit to travel.
• Only registered guests and crew are allowed to enter the ship, after performing safety/health checks such as measurement of body temperature and hand disinfecting.
• In case elevated temperature is measured, the passenger will not be allowed on board until the potential risk of a passenger has been defined by the local health authorities.
• Embarkation is arranged with respect for social distance and adapted procedures minimize the interaction between guests and crew.
• Every step of the check-in procedure is being revised to have a contactless experience.
• The main safety rules will be communicated to guests (verbal and in writing) before entering the ship the first time.
• The use of plastic screens and other protective gear is used for embarkation steps that require interaction.
• Before embarkation, the entire ship, including all cabins, will be cleaned, disinfected and ventilated.

Guest Interaction Onboard

• The use of mouth masks is mandatory onboard when walking around.
• Respect for 1.5-meter social distance or compliance with local guidelines with regards to social distancing is guaranteed and clearly communicated onboard.
• General safety measures such as coughing hygiene are requested and clearly communicated onboard.
• When needed, meals and activities are being arranged in time slots to lower the used capacity of communal areas.
• When spaces do not allow social distancing, one-way movements are being installed and clear routing is defined onboard to exclude crossings without a safe interpersonal distance.
• All meals are served and no buffet services are offered.

Onboard Services and facilities

• A doctor accompanies all journeys to preform health checks with crew and guests for onboard consultations and to assess the potential risks on a frequent basis.
• Quick tests for COVID-19 are available onboard. These can be used by the accompanying doctor in case of suspected risk.
• The temperature of every guest will be measured on a daily basis.
• Clear signage is provided onboard to make guests and crew comply with the defined routing plans.
• Services such as massage and hairdresser are not available.
• Services with a medium risk of spreading bacteria such as luggage handling are being minimized and performed with adapted procedures to limit risks.
• Facilities with limited space or elevated infection risks such as elevators and public toilets are out of order.
• Cleaning staff will be taking additional measures in disinfecting surfaces to minimize the spread of bacteria by cleaning handles, staircases, toilets, armrests, guardrails and other areas, with cleaning solutions adapted to COVID-19 on an even more frequent basis than is usually done.
• Room service offerings will be amended to help limit the number of guests in the restaurant onboard each ship.
• Non-essential items that would be touched by multiple guests will not longer be available such as newspapers and umbrellas.
• No orders can be placed at the bar, all services are based on table services at all times.
• All food and beverage items will be served as individual portions with a minimal need for contact between the person serving and the food/drink item.
• Each cabin will be disinfected twice a day, without the presence of the guest. Cabins are cleaned by the same member of the housekeeping staff every time and all members of the housekeeping staff are obliged to wear a face mask and gloves during their activities.
• All cabins will be provided with a bottle of hand sanitizer.
• Payments can be made by credit card only, except for tips which will be deposited in a tip box.

Operations

• Every crew member will be officially tested on COVID-19 before boarding.
• The crew arrives onboard days before guests to guarantee a quarantine period, after being questioned about their past whereabouts and current and past health situation.
• Procedures are being put in place to ensure social distance between crew members in sleeping, recreational and mutual areas for the crew.
• All crew will be trained to ensure compliance with the COVID-19 protocols.
• The onboard crew is required to wear protective gear during working hours and when interacting with guests.
• If it is determined by the onboard doctor that there is a confirmed or suspected case of COVID-19 disease onboard, an outbreak management plan will be activated. The suspected case will be immediately instructed to wear a medical mask, follow cough etiquette, and practice hand hygiene; the suspected case will be isolated in a predefined isolation cabin with the door closed. Infection control measures will be applied in accordance with WHO guidance. The disembarkation and transfer of the suspected case to an onshore healthcare facility for further assessment and laboratory testing will be arranged as soon as possible in cooperation with the health authorities at the port.

 

[WAMarathoner]

4 minutes ago, crzndeb said:

Does anybody know if there has been a breakdown of age groups, and how many healthy individuals died in those age groups? 

 

Italy reported that over 99% of its deaths were from patients with co-morbidities.

 

The problem here in the US is that the stats are "interpreted" according to a news (or blog) source's bias.   What we do know is that the hardest hit group of people in the US is the 9% of the population that is morbidly obese.  When diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, or lung issues are added, the risk goes up significantly.

 

Back in March, Carnegie-Melon put out a great paper that would have avoided the lockdowns and economic fallout for most of the country.  It recognized that the risk was not equal for various groups.  If you're interested, it's not too long: http://math.cmu.edu/~wes/covid.html

Hindsight is, of course, 20-20.

[NJ&Ozzie]

28 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

That is the million dollar question :  What will be the protocol when  one person is confirmed with the virus?

Will the cruise end and everyone  be quarantined on the ship into their cabins and the ship sail directly to it's destination ending port?

If that is what the protocol will be I have other better things to do with my vacation time and vacation spending money then chance a cruise.

I believe it's going to have to get alot more safer to have cruise ships sailing again.............and right now things aren't even close to sailing again.

I don't care what other cruiselines are saying (Carnival) CDC will not let them sail from USA in the current situation.

Yup, I would like to hear what Fain is thinking about this.  If one person has covid - will that shut down the cruise???

NJ