The Debbie Downers have been right all along

[HappyInVan]

While some of you are waiting for a miracle drug, there's good news from Canada. The Grinch is not pleased!

 

Currently 30% of the population has at least one dose. 300K doses a day. 88% of the delivered vax have been administered.

 

https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

 

Means that by early June (assuming that vax supply is maintained), 60% of the population could have at least one dose. That's >70% of the 18+ population.

 

Just in time to resume the injection of the second dose. We should finish by late August.

 

The hardest part of the program will be to vax the 18-39 cohort. Achieving 60% will be excellent. Expect theatrics in late July as the governments coax the millennial to the vax centers.

 

Surprisingly, Saskatchewan (low density prairie province) and Quebec (worst fatalities per capita) are leading the provinces. Bravo, >90% of their vax deliveries have been administered. I was worried about these provinces.

 

In BC, the scheduled vaccinations are proceeding at a leisurely pace. The province is holding back reserves for the emergency program of mass vaccinations in hot-spots.

 

For example, mass vaccination (everyone 18+ eligible) was offered in Prince Rupert. The counterattack program was completed in under a week. 85% of 18+ received their first dose.

 

Before the intervention, Prince Rupert (13k pop) was recording 100+ cases/week. Assuming that there was one additional case for every confirmed case, the town could have natural herd immunity in 8 months.

 

After the intervention, cases have declined to 3 a week. But, that is still too high. For endemic status, cases have to fall further; to one case a fortnight for the size of their population.

[whogo]

More bad news from the fact based media, this time the New York Times:

 

"Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe"

 

"Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy." https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-heard-immunity-vaccine.html

[KirkNC]

1 hour ago, whogo said:

More bad news from the fact based media, this time the New York Times:

 

"Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe"

 

"Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy." https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-heard-immunity-vaccine.html

I just read that as well.  Not entirely new thinking but certainly it seems that the experts have concluded it is the most likely scenario.  I believe this validates @Hlitner theory on vaccinations and herd immunity.  Not sure the implications on travel and cruising in the world in the future.

[Mosaic]

Because you still get Covid AFTER a vaccine.  That is why you wear masks AND to protect others.

 

Gregg

[KirkNC]

21 minutes ago, Mosaic said:

Because you still get Covid AFTER a vaccine.  That is why you wear masks AND to protect others.

 

Gregg

But the odds are so small that you can catch it.  The key is can a vaccinated person spread the disease and from what I have read the early data suggests no (other then when they actually catch it).  We need to be careful that we don’t concentrate so hard to reduce risk to zero that we destroy a live worth living.

[tosteve1]

All the talk of continued restrictions and variants and boosters just feeds the anti vaxx attitude. The variants  have mostly responded to current vaccines. If they do escape, vaccines can be modified relatively easily. Viruses always continue to mutate but often at the expense of their function or other survival advantages. 
  The real numbers to watch are hospitalizations and deaths. They are coming down nicely in many parts of the USA. Give it another month and keep getting people vaccinated.
 

[terrydtx]

3 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

The scary part is that many counties have such a low level of vax. IMO, the CDC is wise to require >95% vaccination. The cruise companies would be even wiser to make it >98%.

I would prefer that major cruise lines like HAL and Celebrity do what NCL is doing, 100% vaccination or stay home. 

[wdw1972]

10 hours ago, KirkNC said:

But the odds are so small that you can catch it.  The key is can a vaccinated person spread the disease and from what I have read the early data suggests no (other then when they actually catch it).  We need to be careful that we don’t concentrate so hard to reduce risk to zero that we destroy a live worth living.

I hope the data will show vaccinated people don't transmit the virus - but we don't know for sure yet since they haven't really studied it.

 

As for the odds being so small, I agreed with that until this past weekend.  At work (residential facility for adults with severe/profound intellectual disabilities) we had a resident in a home of 14 men test positive prior to a planned medical procedure.  He had no symptoms.  He was the only resident in that home who is not fully vaccinated, thanks to his public guardian refusing to give consent.  We PCR tested him again and the other 13 guys - 2 more turned up positive.  So, 3 out of 14 is significant and not at all what I expected.  An unvaccinated staff also tested positive, so I assume she's the gem who brought it in.  Now we have the 3 guys yanked out of their home to spend 10 days in an isolation home, in unfamiliar surroundings - really sucks.

 

Sue/WDW1972

[rkacruiser]

8 minutes ago, wdw1972 said:

I hope the data will show vaccinated people don't transmit the virus - but we don't know for sure yet since they haven't really studied it.

 

If the answer to that question is in the negative and those of us who are vaccinated can still transmit the virus, that implies that, at my age, I am going to have to wear a mask for the rest of whatever time span my life has? 

 

 

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, wdw1972 said:

I hope the data will show vaccinated people don't transmit the virus - but we don't know for sure yet since they haven't really studied it.

 

As for the odds being so small, I agreed with that until this past weekend.  At work (residential facility for adults with severe/profound intellectual disabilities) we had a resident in a home of 14 men test positive prior to a planned medical procedure.  He had no symptoms.  He was the only resident in that home who is not fully vaccinated, thanks to his public guardian refusing to give consent.  We PCR tested him again and the other 13 guys - 2 more turned up positive.  So, 3 out of 14 is significant and not at all what I expected.  An unvaccinated staff also tested positive, so I assume she's the gem who brought it in.  Now we have the 3 guys yanked out of their home to spend 10 days in an isolation home, in unfamiliar surroundings - really sucks.

 

Sue/WDW1972

And this shows the negative effects the unvaccinated who say it is my choice and society be damned have on others around them. Thank you for posting this. The entire third grade at my DW's school had to quarantine because of an unvaccinated staff member. The only reason DW (the art teacher so she had the 3rd graders) did not have to quarantine for 10 days was that she was fully vaccinated.  

[sofietucker]

That's fine. But you and I, my friend, will not meet on the high seas: I am only sailing on ships that require 100% vaccination (like the one next month out of St Maarten, and then Europe and the UK). Have no plans to sail out of FLA or TX anymore. Cheers.

[syesmar]

12 hours ago, wdw1972 said:

I hope the data will show vaccinated people don't transmit the virus - but we don't know for sure yet since they haven't really studied it.

 

As for the odds being so small, I agreed with that until this past weekend.  At work (residential facility for adults with severe/profound intellectual disabilities) we had a resident in a home of 14 men test positive prior to a planned medical procedure.  He had no symptoms.  He was the only resident in that home who is not fully vaccinated, thanks to his public guardian refusing to give consent.  We PCR tested him again and the other 13 guys - 2 more turned up positive.  So, 3 out of 14 is significant and not at all what I expected.  An unvaccinated staff also tested positive, so I assume she's the gem who brought it in.  Now we have the 3 guys yanked out of their home to spend 10 days in an isolation home, in unfamiliar surroundings - really sucks.

 

Sue/WDW1972

Thanks for posting your experience! That first-hand insight is so valuable. There are so many unknowns with this virus that messaging has been complicated.
I know they had to get them available as quickly as possible, but I had wondered during the vaccine trials about the personal behavior of participants: how many continued to mask, distance, avoid crowds and indoor public events, and what effect that might also have. Those things were not tracked, so we don’t know how they may have factored in (or not) to the better-than-expected efficacy. They also didn’t test participants, only when they showed symptoms, so we don’t have a lot of data on transmissibility. Time will give a better idea. 

With the variants, breakthroughs especially are a concern. I think the messaging has been confusing, I think some matters like variants and unknown transmissibility should be freely spoken of in a clear and honest manner. To me, admitting there are unknowns doesn’t mean vaccines don’t work, it just means we aren’t completely sure to what degree when it comes to these factors. For example, while it’s very concerning to me that 2 vaccinated out of 13 got covid, I also know that in pre-vaccine times that number would have been higher. So vaccines do work, but leaders need to acknowledge *why* they’re still recommending certain protocols for the time being. Agree that the sooner more are vaccinated, the sooner we can all breathe a bit easier. Grateful that because of the vaccines, many lives are being saved.

Sue/wdw1972, I’ll be praying for these men in the home. Please keep us posted. 
All the Best!

[Mosaic]

Our local high school was shut down again when one vaccinated teacher ended up with covid. Cruise ship????

[syesmar]

14 hours ago, wdw1972 said:

...We PCR tested him again and the other 13 guys - 2 more turned up positive.  So, 3 out of 14 is significant and not at all what I expected.  An unvaccinated staff also tested positive, so I assume she's the gem who brought it in.  Now we have the 3 guys yanked out of their home to spend 10 days in an isolation home, in unfamiliar surroundings - really sucks.

 

Sue/WDW1972

PS: Sue, did the 2 who were vaccinated get sick? I’m praying for these men, plus you and the staff. I’m sure this is a very unpleasant ordeal for the men and difficult for the staff who cares so much.

Best Wishes!

[wdw1972]

2 hours ago, syesmar said:

PS: Sue, did the 2 who were vaccinated get sick? I’m praying for these men, plus you and the staff. I’m sure this is a very unpleasant ordeal for the men and difficult for the staff who cares so much.

Best Wishes!

None of the 3 residents are sick - absolutely no symptoms.  The Health Dept said that's what they're seeing - vaccinated people catching it from unvaccinated people, but for the most part the vaccinated people have little to no symptoms.  With their level of intellectual disability, it's challenging because they don't understand why they've been moved to unfamiliar surroundings and can't go about their routines.

 

Sue/WDW1972

[syesmar]

2 minutes ago, wdw1972 said:

None of the 3 residents are sick - absolutely no symptoms.  The Health Dept said that's what they're seeing - vaccinated people catching it from unvaccinated people....

 

Sue/WDW1972

Thanks, Sue. I am so glad they aren’t sick! I wonder if any of the pharmaceutical companies are conducting studies to test the vaccinated, to get a pool of how frequent or infrequent this might be? I know they needed to get them out as soon as possible to save more lives, and didn’t regularly test trial participants unless they had symptoms, but it would be helpful to know about transmissibility. Continued prayers for the men in their new temporary surroundings.

[tosteve1]

There are many, many follow up studies ongoing all around the world. Just like the initial clinical trials. The snippets I have read have mostly been positive and so don’t make the nightly news. There are already booster trials and studies in infants. 
The problem with PCR tests is their incredible sensitivity. They detect minute amounts of genetic material and do not determine whether a person is sick, will become sick, or is contagious. Questionable role for testing in a fully vaccinated asymptomatic person. PCR testing will inevitably lead to problems if that’s what cruise lines are planning.

[dfish]

3 hours ago, syesmar said:

Thanks, Sue. I am so glad they aren’t sick! I wonder if any of the pharmaceutical companies are conducting studies to test the vaccinated, to get a pool of how frequent or infrequent this might be? I know they needed to get them out as soon as possible to save more lives, and didn’t regularly test trial participants unless they had symptoms, but it would be helpful to know about transmissibility. Continued prayers for the men in their new temporary surroundings.

A friend of mine participated in some sort of study where they tested her weekly for COVID after being vaccinated.  I'm not sure what the study entailed, but it does seem they were testing for breakthrough cases.

[syesmar]

On 5/4/2021 at 3:29 PM, dfish said:

A friend of mine participated in some sort of study where they tested her weekly for COVID after being vaccinated.  I'm not sure what the study entailed, but it does seem they were testing for breakthrough cases.

Thanks, dfish! I think this info is greatly needed; so far it looks like the vaccines are highly effective against most variants.

This morning I heard Dr. Fauci say they had test groups to see when/if the boosters will be needed.

All the Best!

[HappyInVan]

Guys,

 

Let's be positive. Countries are vax enough to reopen. Ships will sail under restrictions. Nothing is perfect. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

 

The cruise companies will make their choices. Pax will then have to make their choices. Best of luck.

 

That said, we should be realistic. USA will not have herd immunity. 16 states have only vax 40% (or under) of their population; that's just 50% or less of the eligible population.

 

Another 12 states have only vax 41-45% . The results are uneven across the states. Some have good trends in cases and hospitalizations. Others have plateau.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/01/14/covid-vaccine-distribution-by-state-how-many-covid-vaccines-have-been-given-in-us-how-many-people/6599531002/

 

This is now 5 full months since vaccination began. I do not expect any dramatic increase in vax results. Some states may be able to squeeze another 10-20% more. There should be a spurt in demand in August prior to campuses reopening. But, it will not be enough.

 

Protect yourselves. Your mask should always be at your side, even if you are vaccinated. Multiple layers of protection.

 

The next big program will be the children under 16.

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/children-12-and-older-now-cleared-to-receive-pfizer-vaccine-health-canada-1.5414935

 

[nocl]

On 5/3/2021 at 6:15 AM, KirkNC said:

But the odds are so small that you can catch it.  The key is can a vaccinated person spread the disease and from what I have read the early data suggests no (other then when they actually catch it).  We need to be careful that we don’t concentrate so hard to reduce risk to zero that we destroy a live worth living.

Actually data does indicate that with the Pfizer vaccine with the original strain and B.117 spread along with asymptomatic infection is reduced by approximately 94% according to Israeli data, not totally eliminated.

 

Reduction is worse with some other strains.

[KroozNut]

10 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Guys,

 

Let's be positive. Countries are vax enough to reopen. Ships will sail under restrictions. Nothing is perfect. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

 

The cruise companies will make their choices. Pax will then have to make their choices. Best of luck.

 

That said, we should be realistic. USA will not have herd immunity. 16 states have only vax 40% (or under) of their population; that's just 50% or less of the eligible population.

 

Another 12 states have only vax 41-45% . The results are uneven across the states. Some have good trends in cases and hospitalizations. Others have plateau.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/01/14/covid-vaccine-distribution-by-state-how-many-covid-vaccines-have-been-given-in-us-how-many-people/6599531002/

 

This is now 5 full months since vaccination began. I do not expect any dramatic increase in vax results. Some states may be able to squeeze another 10-20% more. There should be a spurt in demand in August prior to campuses reopening. But, it will not be enough.

 

Protect yourselves. Your mask should always be at your side, even if you are vaccinated. Multiple layers of protection.

 

The next big program will be the children under 16.

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/children-12-and-older-now-cleared-to-receive-pfizer-vaccine-health-canada-1.5414935

 

 

The mistake often made when discussing 'herd immunity' is to only consider vaccination percentage of populations, and not to also factor in natural infection from the virus.

 

From the Mayo Clinic:

 

"The U.S. is currently making progress toward herd immunity through a combined approach. The number of fully vaccinated adults continues to rise. In addition, more than 31 million people in the U.S. have had confirmed infections with the COVID-19 virus".

 

Immunity from natural infection: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that about 31.5 million people in the United States have been infected with the coronavirus since February 2020. But those are the official, confirmed numbers. Most experts say that because of inadequate testing and reporting, the true number of infections is many times higher — the CDC put this number at 83 million by December 2020.

 

Eric Topol, MD, the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, CA estimates that the number of actual infections is close to 100 million. “It could be as high as 110 million or it could be 90 million, but the serology tests — the good ones — say that we’ve confirmed less than a third of infections,” he explains.

 

Herd immunity is defined by some experts as ‘the combined value of infections + vaccinations as % population > 60%'.

 

Considering all this, herd immunity in the U.S. is achievable, and may be even closer than many people think.

 

 

[kazu]

14 minutes ago, KroozNut said:

 

The mistake often made when discussing 'herd immunity' is to only consider vaccination percentage of populations, and not to also factor in natural infection from the virus.

 

From the Mayo Clinic:

 

"The U.S. is currently making progress toward herd immunity through a combined approach. The number of fully vaccinated adults continues to rise. In addition, more than 31 million people in the U.S. have had confirmed infections with the COVID-19 virus".

 

Immunity from natural infection: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that about 31.5 million people in the United States have been infected with the coronavirus since February 2020. But those are the official, confirmed numbers. Most experts say that because of inadequate testing and reporting, the true number of infections is many times higher — the CDC put this number at 83 million by December 2020.

 

Eric Topol, MD, the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, CA estimates that the number of actual infections is close to 100 million. “It could be as high as 110 million or it could be 90 million, but the serology tests — the good ones — say that we’ve confirmed less than a third of infections,” he explains.

 

Herd immunity is defined by some experts as ‘the combined value of infections + vaccinations as % population > 60%'.

 

Considering all this, herd immunity in the U.S. is achievable, and may be even closer than many people think.

 

 

 

The only catch to this is that it appears immunity does not last long after you have the virus.  There have been cases of people contracting it a second time in a relatively short period of time. (Ie. 6 months).

[KroozNut]

2 hours ago, kazu said:

 

The only catch to this is that it appears immunity does not last long after you have the virus.  There have been cases of people contracting it a second time in a relatively short period of time. (Ie. 6 months).

 

True, and there have been cases of fully vaccinated people catching it as well, however it is an exceedingly rare scenario..

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

14 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Guys,

 

Let's be positive. Countries are vax enough to reopen. Ships will sail under restrictions. Nothing is perfect. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

 

The cruise companies will make their choices. Pax will then have to make their choices. Best of luck.

 

That said, we should be realistic. USA will not have herd immunity. 16 states have only vax 40% (or under) of their population; that's just 50% or less of the eligible population.

 

Another 12 states have only vax 41-45% . The results are uneven across the states. Some have good trends in cases and hospitalizations. Others have plateau.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/01/14/covid-vaccine-distribution-by-state-how-many-covid-vaccines-have-been-given-in-us-how-many-people/6599531002/

 

This is now 5 full months since vaccination began. I do not expect any dramatic increase in vax results. Some states may be able to squeeze another 10-20% more. There should be a spurt in demand in August prior to campuses reopening. But, it will not be enough.

 

Protect yourselves. Your mask should always be at your side, even if you are vaccinated. Multiple layers of protection.

 

The next big program will be the children under 16.

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/children-12-and-older-now-cleared-to-receive-pfizer-vaccine-health-canada-1.5414935

 

Well said ...