I've Had Enough !!!

[orville99]

The data would seem to support the science, and the prospect of herd immunity sooner rather than later.

Rolling average Case Rate and Death Rate in the U.S. as of yesterday:

 

[S.A.M.J.R.]

5 minutes ago, orville99 said:

The data would seem to support the science, and the prospect of herd immunity sooner rather than later.

Rolling average Case Rate and Death Rate in the U.S. as of yesterday:

 

Herd immunity happens when a high enough % of people are immune to a disease, not allowing it to spread.  How does falling case rates and deaths = proof herd immunity will happen sooner? 

[A&L_Ont]

10 minutes ago, S.A.M.J.R. said:

Herd immunity happens when a high enough % of people are immune to a disease, not allowing it to spread.  How does falling case rates and deaths = proof herd immunity will happen sooner? 

Agreed. In fact falling cases would slow down herd immunity. It only comes from people being infected and vaccinated combined. 
 

Herd immunity is reported to be around 70%.  Just as a rough calculation; at current vaccine rates, doses given, positive cases to date, and with no “added” positive cases it would be around mid-July.
 

April seems rather unlikely to me but a lot can change. IMO I don’t see trial cruises starting until at least herd immunity is reached. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by A&L_Ont

[onlyslightlymad]

12 hours ago, Etta1213 said:

Estimates are that for every US citizen who tested pos, there were 6 others who had little or no problem with symptoms and never sought medical care. Also, i think i had it last Jan before it hit the news. I have talked to quite a few folks who think they did too, Dec 2019 or Jan 2020.

There have been few studies on the percentage of asymptomatic cases but it seems to be around 25%.  What percentage of US citizens have no access to medical care when they do get sick?

[orville99]

47 minutes ago, S.A.M.J.R. said:

Herd immunity happens when a high enough % of people are immune to a disease, not allowing it to spread.  How does falling case rates and deaths = proof herd immunity will happen sooner? 

According to the scientists, the rapid drop in case rates cannot be fully attributed to vaccinations, but is more accurately reflected by a combination of vaccinations and previous contraction of the disease. The point that the epidemiologist from Johns Hopkins was making in the WSJ article is that the analysis of the data and the modeling that has been done would indicate that number of people who have gained natural immunity by having contracted and recovered from Covid without showing any symptoms is 5-6 times the number who have been tested and showed up positive. The hypothesis is that the rapidly falling case rate will become asymptotic (herd immunity does not mean eradication, only that the case rates will reach a low enough level that they will neither rise nor fall) by April because of the combination of manufactured/natural immunization factors in play.

Edited February 21, 2021 by orville99

[cured]

11 hours ago, baldilocks said:

I hope your mother will be OK. We are both 75 and we creak a bit. Pfizer has cut its production time by almost half. So that will almost a double of their vaccine on the market. It also will not be needed to be kept so cold at the injection site which will allow it to travel to rural areas. The J&J vaccine will hit the market in March. That will add millions of more doses into the vaccination stream...and it is a one shot and done deal. So I believe that the shot (or jabs) will be going at a fast clip by the end of March. I also believe that all the 1A group that want the shot will get at least their first shot by the end of March.

 

There is still about 20-30% of the population that will refuse the shot. It will take a while for some of them to come around.

Per Johnson and Johnson, doses are not expected to be available in the US until late June, early July. 

[cruisinfanatic]

10 minutes ago, orville99 said:

According to the scientists, the rapid drop in case rates cannot be fully attributed to vaccinations, but is more accurately reflected by a combination of vaccinations and previous contraction of the disease. The point that the epidemiologist from Johns Hopkins was making in the WSJ article is that the analysis of the data and the modeling that has been done would indicate that number of people who have gained natural immunity by having contracted and recovered from Covid without showing any symptoms is 5-6 times the number who have been tested and showed up positive. The hypothesis is that the rapidly falling case rate will become asymptotic (herd immunity does not mean eradication, only that the case rates will reach a low enough level that they will neither rise nor fall) by April because of the combination of manufactured/natural immunization factors in play.

deleted

Edited February 21, 2021 by cruisinfanatic

[poffles]

14 hours ago, baldilocks said:

We will getting our second Moderna shots on March 5th....we hope. We are willing to wear our masks and keep social distancing when we are out....but not forever. We have been listening to the news and several well respected, well known doctors of virology stated that the USA will reach herd immunity around the end of April....even with the new strains. They also said that all schools should open immediately. Those doctors were verbally attacked by the news media, the teacher's union and the politicians. The 'polys' want to keep us down until Christmas 2021 or longer. I believe the doctors.

 

I cannot for the life of me see why cruising should not begin by August 2021. That should give the cruise lines enough time to get their crews on board, have them vaccinated and do a couple of test cruises and determine open destinations.. If they are held back, it is a political move...not science speaking. As a stockholder in Royal, I would expect Royal to protest to the the highest level....the news media about their situation. 

 

As for us, no masks after April. We want to get back to normal living....not being treated like animals in a zoo.

 

How can there be herd immunity when some Countries have not even begun vaccinations?  Are you referring to a small bubble view of only your Country?  This is a world problem and until this is managed/controlled world wide, herd immunity will not happen by April or even by the summer.  I was just reading that even Dr. Fauci is predicting mask wearing into 2022.

Edited February 21, 2021 by poffles

[twangster]

3 hours ago, cruisinfanatic said:

Who's in lock down?

 

No one. I didn't say anyone was. 

 

However giddy with their new powers they'll gladly go there if left unchecked, which is what I said in my post.

[Baron Barracuda]

Need to distinguish news from opinion.  The WSJ herd immunity piece was not a news article but rather a submission by the writer to the Opinion / Commentary section.

[Vera/Lee]

18 minutes ago, poffles said:

 Dr. Fauci is predicting mask wearing into 2022.

Why does that not surprise me? 

[RonPaula]

We’re putting too much faith in the medical community to give precise information so that we can make solid plans for the near future. A hiccup in the chain can wreak havoc with estimates. Look at how a weather event in Texas disrupted vaccine distribution around the country.  A new, aggressive variant can upend all predictions. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Paula

[Seville2Cabo]

44 minutes ago, cured said:

Per Johnson and Johnson, doses are not expected to be available in the US until late June, early July. 

I thought J&J said a few million now and ramping up over next months.  100 million delivered by end of June.  

[cured]

5 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Sooooo cheap, yet apparently sooooo effective. 

Unfortunately, as more knowledge is gained about Covid, vitamin D has been shown to be far less effective than previously thought.

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/02/vitamin-d-not-effective-moderate-severe-covid-study-finds

Edited February 21, 2021 by cured

[molly361]

47 minutes ago, cured said:

Per Johnson and Johnson, doses are not expected to be available in the US until late June, early July. 

I had not heard that.  I was thinking I could get one of those late March early April

Edited February 21, 2021 by molly361

[Baron Barracuda]

4 hours ago, twangster said:

 

I tend to agree but...

 

Many Caribbean nations lack a deep bench of scientists and doctors in the fields applicable to a pandemic so a portion of their decision making will come from perceived institutes of knowledge such as the CDC.    The CDC has proven it is not a purely scientific body.  Much of what it produces is influenced by politics and directed by politicians past, present and future.  As other nations look to the CDC for guidance they are unknowingly subscribing to the political doctrine of the CDC and not the science they perceive to be it's foundation.

 

The key to moving forward and restarting cruising lies in correcting the behaviour of the CDC as it applies to it's unscientific lockdown of the cruise industry.

 

Post you reacted to merely stated that Caribbean nations might want to first get their citizens vaccinated before allowing shiploads of of potentially infectious tourists to descend upon them.  They don't need to do their own research or consult CDC.

 

Don't understand how you keep saying politics influence CDC.  Their no-sail orders went directly against prior administration's push to ignore the virus and keep economy open.  That prior administration didn't overrule CDC and allow cruising to re-start shows they acknowledged the legitimacy of CDC's concerns.  Might also consider how health authorities other than CDC have shut down cruising in England, Canada and most of the rest of the world.

[Mapleleafforever]

9 minutes ago, cured said:

Unfortunately, as more knowledge is gained about Covid, vitamin D has been shown to be far less effective than previously thought.

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/02/vitamin-d-not-effective-moderate-severe-covid-study-finds

One really must read articles that they post. I don't know anyone who thinks that a single dose of Vitamin D will treat Covid as this study proves. 

 

[voyager70]

1 hour ago, onlyslightlymad said:

There have been few studies on the percentage of asymptomatic cases but it seems to be around 25%.  What percentage of US citizens have no access to medical care when they do get sick?

 

 🙄

[Mapleleafforever]

53 minutes ago, poffles said:

 

How can there be herd immunity when some Countries have not even begun vaccinations?  Are you referring to a small bubble view of only your Country?  This is a world problem and until this is managed/controlled world wide, herd immunity will not happen by April or even by the summer.  I was just reading that even Dr. Fauci is predicting mask wearing into 2022.

Is this the same Dr. Fauci who stated around this time last year that masks are useless?

[Mapleleafforever]

3 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

That doesn't excuse basic daily hygiene that should be practiced every day good times or bad.  Have you ever noticed how many walk past the sinks when directed to wash their hands before entering the buffet?  I never thought twice about it before they had sinks available in the buffet. Now I'm disturbed about it.

How about how many walk out a stall in a public bathroom without washing their hands. I've seen it too many times on cruises.....

[yogimax]

3 hours ago, HBE4 said:

 

It won't be long before someone posts that the flu is more deadly 🙄

I know I read that somewhere last year.  Hmm, I wonder who said it?

[Ocean Boy]

59 minutes ago, poffles said:

  I was just reading that even Dr. Fauci is predicting mask wearing into 2022.

Would that be one, two, or will he want us up to three masks by then?

[Iamcruzin]

Just now, Mapleleafforever said:

How about how many walk out a stall in a public bathroom without washing their hands. I've seen it too many times on cruises.....

I have seen that as well but I don't know where they are headed after. In the buffet you know they will be touching community utensils. I just don't get why you wouldn't want to wash your hands when they make it so convenient.

[Iamcruzin]

8 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Is this the same Dr. Fauci who stated around this time last year that masks are useless?

Yes back before they really didn't know anything about the disease. At one time the warning label on a pack of cigarettes said smoking may cause cancer. Things change as studies become more conclusive.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Iamcruzin

[Ocean Boy]

5 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

Yes back before they really didn't know anything about the disease. At one time the warning label on a pack of cigarettes said smoking may cause cancer. Things change as studies become more conclusive.

How many studies does it take to determine that some barrier might be more beneficial than no barrier?