Will Florida cruises start back up in August?

[P_and_L]

The fact that Disney specifically chose not to cancel sailings for 2 of their ships in August makes me have some hope. 

[John&LaLa]

9 minutes ago, P_and_L said:

The fact that Disney specifically chose not to cancel sailings for 2 of their ships in August makes me have some hope. 

 

Dream and Fantasy, correct. Primarily 3 and 4 day trips to their private island.

Fantasy has 7 day trips during first 3 weeks, though

[DISFANS3]

Hope for Sept??

[APDMOM]

On 6/4/2020 at 3:01 PM, time4u2go said:

Agreed.  Since around May 11, there has been a gradual increase overall:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html

 

Forgive me if this has been posted already, but with 10 pages, it is just too much to read.

 

This just something interesting I learned this week... 🙂  There is the “illusion” of a spike in cases/the curve because testing has increased greatly.  The best way to understand the spike in positive tests is to look at the percentage of positive tests out of all those tested.  Although there is a slight increase in the percentage, it is not considered a spike in cases yet, according to the article I read.  Of course, I also know that they can make the numbers say anything they want to by manipulating how they present them.  Only time will tell when we cruise again and I will be one of the first willing “victims” 😂

 

 See the chart below:

 

[time4u2go]

8 hours ago, APDMOM said:

 

Forgive me if this has been posted already, but with 10 pages, it is just too much to read.

 

This just something interesting I learned this week... 🙂  There is the “illusion” of a spike in cases/the curve because testing has increased greatly.  The best way to understand the spike in positive tests is to look at the percentage of positive tests out of all those tested.  Although there is a slight increase in the percentage, it is not considered a spike in cases yet, according to the article I read.  Of course, I also know that they can make the numbers say anything they want to by manipulating how they present them.  Only time will tell when we cruise again and I will be one of the first willing “victims” 😂

 

 See the chart below:

 

What's interesting is that there are also states that have greatly increased testing but for whom the percentage of positive tests has gone down.  New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Illinois, for example.  I wonder what they are doing differently.

[mac_tlc]

1 hour ago, time4u2go said:

What's interesting is that there are also states that have greatly increased testing but for whom the percentage of positive tests has gone down.  New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Illinois, for example.  I wonder what they are doing differently.

And Connecticut. We have increased testing dramatically and the positivity rate has decreased. Who knows what anyone is doing correctly, but the states that have been hardest hit are the ones that are now seeing the positivity rates decrease while testing increases. I can't help but think that because we were under stay-at-home orders for 8-12 weeks that we gained some control over the spread. If you do more tests and the positivity rate is flat or goes up, that seems to me to mean you haven't controlled the spread, its just that you are finding the cases now. 

 

But, I'm an engineer not an epidemiologist.........

 

And now, back to the discussion of formal nights......

 

mac_tlc

[atricks]

Is Port Canaveral going to be the only port where everything starts up again?  Or Miami/Ft. Lauderdale also?   The private island only (or mostly) cruises seem like the safest bets.  2x coco cay, Labadee or combo of both ala Independence.    Harmony and Mariner seem like the most likely to still go out of all of them, with the ships based in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale right behind them.

 

Disney definitely seems to be focusing on Port Canaveral.

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by atricks

[d9704011]

12 minutes ago, mac_tlc said:

And Connecticut. We have increased testing dramatically and the positivity rate has decreased. Who knows what anyone is doing correctly, but the states that have been hardest hit are the ones that are now seeing the positivity rates decrease while testing increases. I can't help but think that because we were under stay-at-home orders for 8-12 weeks that we gained some control over the spread. If you do more tests and the positivity rate is flat or goes up, that seems to me to mean you haven't controlled the spread, its just that you are finding the cases now. 

 

But, I'm an engineer not an epidemiologist.........

 

And now, back to the discussion of formal nights......

 

mac_tlc

By ‘rate’ I suppose you mean the number of positive tests/tests administered?

 

If that’s the case, one would hope that a declining rate is indicative of declining infection but that may or may not be the case.  In Ontario, testing was done on those exhibiting symptoms or those with an elevated risk  of infection so it is not surprising that the rate was fairly high.  By expanding the testing to pretty much every Tom Dick and Harry who feels a need to be tested, whether there is any significant risk of exposure, is driving the rate down but really, the criteria of the entire sample population has changed and the results are not all that comparable.

[mac_tlc]

9 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

By ‘rate’ I suppose you mean the number of positive tests/tests administered?

 

If that’s the case, one would hope that a declining rate is indicative of declining infection but that may or may not be the case.  In Ontario, testing was done on those exhibiting symptoms or those with an elevated risk  of infection so it is not surprising that the rate was fairly high.  By expanding the testing to pretty much every Tom Dick and Harry who feels a need to be tested, whether there is any significant risk of exposure, is driving the rate down but really, the criteria of the entire sample population has changed and the results are not all that comparable.

That is what I meant by "rate". In Connecticut, Tom, Dick and Harry are SOL unless they are a health care worker, first responder, been around a known-infected person,  or exhibiting symptoms. They really haven't said "come-one-come-all" to the testing centers. 

 

mac_tlc

[d9704011]

1 hour ago, mac_tlc said:

That is what I meant by "rate". In Connecticut, Tom, Dick and Harry are SOL unless they are a health care worker, first responder, been around a known-infected person,  or exhibiting symptoms. They really haven't said "come-one-come-all" to the testing centers. 

 

mac_tlc

Well then, since CT hasn’t gone to the TD&H testing strategy it looks as though there is room for optimism on the improvement front.  

[kidless]

On 6/9/2020 at 3:58 AM, APDMOM said:

 

Forgive me if this has been posted already, but with 10 pages, it is just too much to read.

 

This just something interesting I learned this week... 🙂  There is the “illusion” of a spike in cases/the curve because testing has increased greatly.  The best way to understand the spike in positive tests is to look at the percentage of positive tests out of all those tested.  Although there is a slight increase in the percentage, it is not considered a spike in cases yet, according to the article I read.  Of course, I also know that they can make the numbers say anything they want to by manipulating how they present them.  Only time will tell when we cruise again and I will be one of the first willing “victims” 😂

 

 See the chart below:

 

They are also adding people who test positive for antibodies as a Covid case. I know several who have tested positive I’ll be getting tested next week. That will make numbers higher 

[cruisefan0110]

Please remember that when testing first started, you almost had to be symptomatic to get a test. Now we have drive-thru testing for anyone who asks. That’s going to increase the positivity rates as people just want to be tested.  Our community in Florida offered it and we took the test just to make sure we were okay (yes, at that point). 

[cruiselvr04]

On 6/9/2020 at 12:51 PM, atricks said:

Is Port Canaveral going to be the only port where everything starts up again?  Or Miami/Ft. Lauderdale also?   The private island only (or mostly) cruises seem like the safest bets.  2x coco cay, Labadee or combo of both ala Independence.    Harmony and Mariner seem like the most likely to still go out of all of them, with the ships based in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale right behind them.

 

Disney definitely seems to be focusing on Port Canaveral.

 

 

This is why we double booked cruises.  We are hoping a 5 night out of FLL which goes only to coco key and labadee might actually go mid October.  While I don't see our 11 Celebrity sailing,  I have a glimmer of hope for Independence.  I won’t be paying final on the Celebrity one unless things change dramatically in the next 3 weeks.  Both are refundable. Airfare is booked because we had to or lose it. And if neither go we have a back up planned in Florida.  I hate uncertainty but am learning to live with it. On top of all that just leaving the state may make me have to quarantine due to my job.  At this point I’m so desperate for a vacation that I’m willing to spend a couple of weeks at home after since I have plenty of vacation time.

[sunnydaysmile]

There is also an increase number of deaths and COVID related hospitalizations since re-opening the state.

[meghan74]

On 6/9/2020 at 11:29 AM, time4u2go said:

What's interesting is that there are also states that have greatly increased testing but for whom the percentage of positive tests has gone down.  New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Illinois, for example.  I wonder what they are doing differently.

I live in Illinois and was encouraged to take my entire family to be tested even though we have no symptoms or known exposure. They're doing a lot of work, at least where I live (not in Chicago or suburbs), to make the testing accessible to everyone. When we went, it was a drive through, self-administered test - no wait and we got our results in about 12 hours. We were all negative, as expected, but it was nice to have that confirmed. Anyway, I think it's easier for asymptomatic people to be tested in certain states and that's impacting the % of positive tests.

[graphicguy]

Just as a follow up from a few days ago, my friend who works on GE engines for cruise ships....talked to him on the phone last evening.  He was on one of the Celebrity ships and finally got his WiFi calling to work on his phone.

 

He wasn't allowed to tell me which ship he's on, only that they're checking and testing engines to get them to run at full capacity.  He "assumes" that's sooner than later (his guesstimate was 60 days based on the scuttle butt around the ship), although he doesn't know for sure.

 

As mentioned previously, he's also scheduled to do the same for some Royal ships (again, not allowed to tell me which ones). 

 

He said overall, they're putting in new processes and getting the ships in shape to bring crew back and train them on the new procedures.

 

I asked him about his NCL contact.  He would only say that he was planning to meet with them as part of a group and his PPT would only be about maintenance costs.  He would not go into any more detail, but stated it's like NCL is looking for ways to become more efficient in their operation and processes for their ships.

 

Wish I had more, but that's it.

 

He's busy on ships through August.  He believes there will be another busy period from October through December.  He's not heard of anything past that.

[sandebeach]

30 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

Just as a follow up from a few days ago, my friend who works on GE engines for cruise ships....talked to him on the phone last evening.  He was on one of the Celebrity ships and finally got his WiFi calling to work on his phone.

 

He wasn't allowed to tell me which ship he's on, only that they're checking and testing engines to get them to run at full capacity.  He "assumes" that's sooner than later (his guesstimate was 60 days based on the scuttle butt around the ship), although he doesn't know for sure.

 

As mentioned previously, he's also scheduled to do the same for some Royal ships (again, not allowed to tell me which ones). 

 

He said overall, they're putting in new processes and getting the ships in shape to bring crew back and train them on the new procedures.

 

I asked him about his NCL contact.  He would only say that he was planning to meet with them as part of a group and his PPT would only be about maintenance costs.  He would not go into any more detail, but stated it's like NCL is looking for ways to become more efficient in their operation and processes for their ships.

 

Wish I had more, but that's it.

 

He's busy on ships through August.  He believes there will be another busy period from October through December.  He's not heard of anything past that.

Very interesting. Thanks for the update!

[Oxo]

Europe - Yes.   

NORTH AMERICA - NO

https://thepointsguy.com/news/more-cruise-lines-to-restart-trips-in-europe/

[Arzeena]

4 hours ago, graphicguy said:

Just as a follow up from a few days ago, my friend who works on GE engines for cruise ships....talked to him on the phone last evening.  He was on one of the Celebrity ships and finally got his WiFi calling to work on his phone.

 

He wasn't allowed to tell me which ship he's on, only that they're checking and testing engines to get them to run at full capacity.  He "assumes" that's sooner than later (his guesstimate was 60 days based on the scuttle butt around the ship), although he doesn't know for sure.

 

As mentioned previously, he's also scheduled to do the same for some Royal ships (again, not allowed to tell me which ones). 

 

He said overall, they're putting in new processes and getting the ships in shape to bring crew back and train them on the new procedures.

 

I asked him about his NCL contact.  He would only say that he was planning to meet with them as part of a group and his PPT would only be about maintenance costs.  He would not go into any more detail, but stated it's like NCL is looking for ways to become more efficient in their operation and processes for their ships.

 

Wish I had more, but that's it.

 

He's busy on ships through August.  He believes there will be another busy period from October through December.  He's not heard of anything past that.

Thanks for the follow up. Appreciate it.

[graphicguy]

Forgot.....I had asked my GE friend if he would have any misgivings about sailing on a full ship.  His exact words...."ABSOLUTELY NOT"...the ship is so clean, and they're working around the clock to make them even cleaner".

 

He also talked about the anti-viral routines the crew goes through.

 

Knowing him, that's the only reassurance I need.

 

 

[Biker19]

4 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

I had asked my GE

As far as I know only the M class for X and Radiance class for RCI have GE turbines. And I can see RCCL wanting to make them efficient - they burn expensive fuel. @chengkp75 can confirm some of this maybe.

Edited June 12, 2020 by Biker19

[Bobal]

5 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

Forgot.....I had asked my GE friend if he would have any misgivings about sailing on a full ship.  His exact words...."ABSOLUTELY NOT"...the ship is so clean, and they're working around the clock to make them even cleaner".

 

He also talked about the anti-viral routines the crew goes through.

 

Knowing him, that's the only reassurance I need.

 

 

 

But surely it's irrelevant how clean a ship is or whatever measures are in place, all you need are several infected and incautious/uncaring people boarding that ship to make those measures pointless 

[molly361]

1900 new cases in Florida today, 1700 yesterday.  Going in the wrong direction

[atricks]

A fairly recent change for Florida results is that they are including positive antibody results as "new cases".  Not sure if that matters too much overall, but it does mean that some folks likely had and recovered from the virus (perhaps without really knowing it).

 

[Jimbo]

Wonder once CDC and other health  entities and countries gives the okay to sail again, who takes responsibilty for giving the go on RCCL end?

 

Not sure I would want to be that person if things should go wrong after 2 or 3 cruises.

 

If that happens everyone is going to be looking for a refund..............................

Edited June 12, 2020 by Jimbo