CDC Lifts Cruise Ban

[A&L_Ont]

5 hours ago, wolfganghowell said:

Well, if they need some simulated passengers, they could get people who have antibodies and have gotten over covid.  I'll volunteer! 😉  Better hurry though - I hear I may lose them in 90-120 days.  😞  And believe me, I don't EVER want to go through covid hell again.

Hope you two are feeling better. 

 

4 hours ago, Plum Happy said:

Wow, how many ships sail during this time that will need to get one.  Who will certify?  I am going to assume that they will be on these ships to certify then?

 

All ships sailing will need one and that being said not all ships will sail. 

 

3 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Paraphrasing pp 33-34 - minimum standard for covid affected cruise (doesn't say how many cases trigger this)

- Isolate infected passenger/crew

- quarantine everyone else

- terminate sailing and return to embarkation port

- disembark and evacuate everyone

-  transport passengers and crew using non-commercial transport

- cancel future voyages until given permission

It will be interesting to see how this portion plays out. 

 

1 hour ago, bouhunter said:

Ah yes, back to the potential Prison Ship scenario possibility.  Sounds like fun.

No Prison of the Seas (POS) but we could have a HOS (Hospital of the Seas).😉

 

1 hour ago, Sunshine3601 said:

I am sure RCL has been retrofitting their cruise ships over the last couple of months and don't expect them to be surprised by any of the conditions on this order.     I did notice this footnote on page 28.      I wonder how long it would take for them to get all the certifications they need with USCG to be able to submit their paperwork to the CDC to get their Certificate to Sail.      All of this is going to take time to get processed. 

 

 

They might have done some design work but I doubt they would have done any actual work. This announcement today is when they will actually start to invest money into physical ship changes, once they determine which ships the lines want sailing. 
 

You are 100% right, this is going to take some time. 

 

30 minutes ago, NavArch64 said:

So, .... all materials necessary to apply for a COVID19 Conditional Sailing Certificate are to be submitted 60 days in advance of the planned initial sailing date for each ship in each brand's fleet.

If everything fell into place perfectly and the somehow were able to apply November 1st that would make January 1st the potential first sail date. That doesn’t include the test sailings as well as getting CDC approval after the tests. To top that off, I suspect the CDC will not be moving quickly especially over the holidays to give this approval.  
 

I also wonder how many CDC inspectors will be delegated to overseeing this process, as the less they do the longer it will take. Time will tell.  

 

15 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

To be clear I'm fully expecting a train wreck and lots of complaining for the first few months. I want these reviews for pure entertainment. But people who will be on the first few months of sailings should know what they're in for. I just hope they work out all the bugs by my Feb 2022 cruise. 

With these rules in place until November 2021 I’m thinking my next actual cruise will be January of 2022. March of 2022 and October 2021 seem unlikely but I still won’t be cancelling until final payment.  We still need our border to open too. 😉

[Sunshine3601]

Yes you are right. They definitely didnt want to spend unnecessary money. 

They probably did start renovating their medical facility based on their health panel for the 2 maybe 3 ships that will start out.  

After re-reading everything they have to do their timeline could be mid jan at earliest.  Probably more likely february as you said everything will slow down with government inspectors etc during the holidays.

 

[twangster]

30 minutes ago, Tapi said:

While the opinion of this scientist attempts to refute the findings of the study reported by IATA, it does little to provide information to effectively counter similar studies by the US Department of Defense, Harvard and others. 
 

I work in the airline industry, and I have operated over 250 flights since the pandemic started. Thankfully I’ve remained Covid-free this entire time even though I sit for hours and hours less than 6 feet apart from another crew member. Statistically, the rate of infection among airline crew members is far below the rate for general population. I do believe these studies. 
 

 

 

Crew on board I think fair much better.

 

• In March, 11 infectious passengers on a five-hour Sydney-Perth flight passed the virus to 11 others, according to a paper in the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal.
• Among those infected, two were seated three rows away from a contagious passenger and one was six rows away, suggesting that typical two-row contact-tracing might have missed them.
• One sufferer on a 10-hour London-Hanoi flight the same month infected 16 others including 12 in her business-class cabin, according to a study by Vietnamese and Australian academics.

Everything above directly contradicts the IATA, Boeing and Airbus who claim that floor to ceiling airflow minimizes risk on airplanes.

 

I think it's safe to say that there is ample data to manipulate to whatever goal suits one's purpose.  The proponents you mention have one purpose.

 

I was on a cruise during the pandemic that ended in Barcelona as Spain was the hotspot of the world.  I didn't become infected.  Based on that should I declare cruising is safe? 

 

Million miler on one US airline and an aviation geek so I bear no ill will to you or your profession. 

 

I hope for your continued good health and that your job isn't impacted by the furloughs in the winds.

Edited October 31, 2020 by twangster

[Tapi]

1 minute ago, twangster said:

i hope for your continued good health and that your job isn't impacted by the furloughs in the winds.

Thank you. I do appreciate it. So far I’m safe, and fairly unscathed. 

[Ocean Boy]

23 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

Hope you two are feeling better. 

 

 

All ships sailing will need one and that being said not all ships will sail. 

 

It will be interesting to see how this portion plays out. 

 

No Prison of the Seas (POS) but we could have a HOS (Hospital of the Seas).😉

 

They might have done some design work but I doubt they would have done any actual work. This announcement today is when they will actually start to invest money into physical ship changes, once they determine which ships the lines want sailing. 
 

You are 100% right, this is going to take some time. 

 

If everything fell into place perfectly and the somehow were able to apply November 1st that would make January 1st the potential first sail date. That doesn’t include the test sailings as well as getting CDC approval after the tests. To top that off, I suspect the CDC will not be moving quickly especially over the holidays to give this approval.  
 

I also wonder how many CDC inspectors will be delegated to overseeing this process, as the less they do the longer it will take. Time will tell.  

 

With these rules in place until November 2021 I’m thinking my next actual cruise will be January of 2022. March of 2022 and October 2021 seem unlikely but I still won’t be cancelling until final payment.  We still need our border to open too. 😉

I am also expecting Jan 2022 to be my next cruise. However, seeing my April 2021 reservation makes me feel good. I suspect when the time comes to cancel it will be just as hard as when I cancelled my January 2021 cruise. I refuse to make final payments and take FCCs that could expire before I can use them.

[twangster]

20 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

but we could have a HOS (Hospital of the Seas)

 

Does the double points promo apply in 2021?  🤣

 

"I was only Gold when I caught COVID on a cruise but I was discharged from Hospital of the Seas as a Pinnacle!"

[ONECRUISER]

4 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

I expect that the cruise lines may have already done the upgrades to the medical facilities or at the very least drawn up the plans.  This was one of the first items that was mentioned when this all started.  

 

I do hope that the no B2B's does not last too long.  We have 2 B2B's in Aug/Sept and 2 more in Nov/Dec of 2021.

 

I can understand testing before, during and at the end of a cruise.  You can be exposed before boarding and become positive during a cruise.

 

If there are not chanced made after a few months we will lose our TP under these rules.

Agree, hope doesnt last long. All I Cruise is B3B to B5B's. Havent done a single Cruise of less then 9 niter since 2002

[emeraldcity]

I clicked on this thread expecting to see numerous posts of people volunteering to be on the test cruises. It's just a debate on the merits of the ruling.

 

So disappointing.

[ReneeFLL]

 

2 hours ago, Tapi said:

......I work in the airline industry, and I have operated over 250 flights since the pandemic started. Thankfully I’ve remained Covid-free this entire time even though I sit for hours and hours less than 6 feet apart from another crew member.

The air filtration in the cockpit is different since there's no recirculated air so I'm sure that helps. Just saying. 🛫 

[firefly333]

2 hours ago, twangster said:

 

 

Carnival faces some other 30/60 day issues from the probation and federal court actions of late related to their environmental case.  The judge threatened 60 days but used 30 days for this purpose in her order this week.  It applies to all Carnival brands and requires them to submit plans related to their environmental probation 30 days prior to being allowed to sail from a U.S. port.    This has nothing to do with the pandemic and it's unclear when Carnival will submit their plan to start the 30 day clock for this purpose.  There may be some confusion with these delays imposed on Carnival brands unrelated to the CDC.

I'm aware of those things, the judge in miami etc. They were just trying like everyone else to figure out all the filing dealings of this cdc lifting the ban, but still probably cant cruise until spring at best. Who knows. But I've followed it. They werent confusing the two. 

[Arizona Wildcat]

2 hours ago, twangster said:

 

Crew on board I think fair much better.

 

• In March, 11 infectious passengers on a five-hour Sydney-Perth flight passed the virus to 11 others, according to a paper in the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal.
• Among those infected, two were seated three rows away from a contagious passenger and one was six rows away, suggesting that typical two-row contact-tracing might have missed them.
• One sufferer on a 10-hour London-Hanoi flight the same month infected 16 others including 12 in her business-class cabin, according to a study by Vietnamese and Australian academics.

Everything above directly contradicts the IATA, Boeing and Airbus who claim that floor to ceiling airflow minimizes risk on airplanes.

 

I think it's safe to say that there is ample data to manipulate to whatever goal suits one's purpose.  The proponents you mention have one purpose.

 

I was on a cruise during the pandemic that ended in Barcelona as Spain was the hotspot of the world.  I didn't become infected.  Based on that should I declare cruising is safe? 

 

Million miler on one US airline and an aviation geek so I bear no ill will to you or your profession. 

 

I hope for your continued good health and that your job isn't impacted by the furloughs in the winds.

Getting COVID from an infected passenger last March who did not wear a mask has little relevance with standards of today.

[Arizona Wildcat]

The CDC paper released today is not a set of rules.  It is only guidelines.  Since the comment period is complete they can be modified or made into rules without additional comments.

Pretty smart as the CDC can sit back and see what works and what needs to be tweaked for the final rules.

Am sure what happens during the coming months will be incorporated into the final document.

[ladylyn915]

If to/from US cruises will be capped at 7 days, what do you think will happen to the already scheduled 8, 9 & 10+ itineraries?  

We are booked for an 8 day cruise July 3, 2021.  Can't wait to see how they change it.   RCL has already changed the ship and the itinerary on us. New Ship is good- the itinerary not so much. Now the vacation length shrunk.  I appreciate all the information being discussed here.  I admit, I have used this forum as my cliff notes - 40 pages of CDC report is a bit much for me.  I am also concerned as to whether we will be allowed off the ship once we are in port.  It's definitely Covid related.  But, I think that is a cruise line/port decision - not CDC, right?

 

Lyn

[Arizona Wildcat]

5 hours ago, bigrednole said:

I love how people believe flying is completely different than a cruise ship. With people less than 6" apart, one infected person can infect an entire flight before they land. I don't want to hear about people being together for 7 days, blah blah blah. You can get infected just as easily on a 1 hour flight as you can on a 7-day cruise. All it takes is 1 person breathing. 

 

As for getting it, most people have no effects. My only reaction was an allergy. My doctor did the test and I was positive. Other than typical allergy from last weed bloom, I would have never known and carried it around to grocery stores, restaurants, friends, and who knows who else. The fact is most (high 90-percentile) have no effects. The small percentage that do need to take necessary precautions. I am not part of the 0.00001% that is considered by scientist to be immune. There have only been 4 diagnosed worldwide having it twice. There is no evidence to prove to a fact that those 4 people had a true positive test as well. I will go with odds and statistics until WHO, CDC, and other scientist flip flop on what this virus really is over the next 3 years.

You need to read a bit about the science of transmission of COVID.  To get infected you need X amount of viral load.  Wearing masks that is why walking past an infected person is not likely to infect another person.

On a plane where you do not remove your mask the viral load from an infected person is very low.  The air is also circulated, micro filtered and exchanged.  Thus in one or two hours the chance of infection is close to zero.

That covers most domestic US flights.  The chance of infection is much higher in a restaurant with a couple hours with no masks and often poor air filtration.

The problem on a cruise is people dining or drinking where you are often near the same people.  Also the simple fact that people will not always follow the rules and impossible to monitor on a ship for a week.  On a plane much easier to keep compliance.

[Biker19]

4 minutes ago, ladylyn915 said:

But, I think that is a cruise line/port decision - not CDC, right?

Likely, yes.

[smalltimecruiser100]

8 hours ago, royal2020 said:

i have 2 weeks on harmony in dec 2020 and so many back to backs in jan do u think i will be able to go

Maybe b2b to coco cay/ Labadee and back to US and then back to coco cay/labadee and back to US at least for awhile..just my opinion. we don't know yet

 

[PigsCanFly]

5 hours ago, coaster said:

Unfortunately, any winnings in the onboard casino during the 'simulated' sailings will be just that. No cash value.

I wager that does not apply to losses in the onboard casino☹️

[Iamcruzin]

9 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Oh oh, isnt age a pre existing condition..hopefully not for april

I don't know anyone young or old who doesn't have some type of pre existing condition.  Plenty of young people who are overweight, have high blood pressure or respiratory illness.

[twangster]

2 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Getting COVID from an infected passenger last March who did not wear a mask has little relevance with standards of today.

 

Yet the CDC continues to reference COVID infections on cruise ships from the same time frame.  So by your logic...

[Iamcruzin]

7 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

I can't wait for the new reviews to start coming in. 

Especially from the first time posters complaining.  "Welcome to Cruise Critic" should be an auto reply.

[Arizona Wildcat]

6 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

Yet the CDC continues to reference COVID infections on cruise ships from the same time frame.  So by your logic...

Infection is a function of viral load multiplied by exposure time.  A mask on an airplane reduces the viral load.  Time on an airplane is already a fraction of the time on a cruise. 

On a cruise that is days not hours long unless you eat and drink only in your cabin or can eat wearing a mask you have multiple times every day for viral load to build to the point of infection.

[ldubs]

11 hours ago, sandebeach said:

"For volunteer passengers on the simulated voyages, they need certification from a healthcare provider that they have no pre-existing medical condition that would put that individual at high risk for COVID 19 as determined by CDC guidance". I don't like this phrasing, because anyone can be at risk for getting infected with COVID; the underlying health conditions may impact how the disease affects the person, but everybody can be at risk for getting COVID.  This is on page 24.

 

By saying high risk,  I'm pretty sure they are referring to those who are more prone to have severe medical issues.  That would be in keeping with how "high risk" or "at risk" has been used so far during the pandemic.   

[twangster]

Just now, Arizona Wildcat said:

Infection is a function of viral load multiplied by exposure time.  A mask on an airplane reduces the viral load.  Time on an airplane is already a fraction of the time on a cruise. 

 

You are assuming that everyone on a cruise ship sits within inches of each other for the entire duration of the cruise and they have no opportunity to move away from someone. 

 

Airplanes force that exposure vector on passengers.  Cruise ships do not.  

 

 

 

[ldubs]

34 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

I don't know anyone young or old who doesn't have some type of pre existing condition.  Plenty of young people who are overweight, have high blood pressure or respiratory illness.

 

No one?  Gosh,  I know many people who have no pre existing conditions.  Especially young folks.       

[twangster]

Pop quiz.  Let's play a game. 

 

A serial COVID infector is after you.  They know who you are, they are seeking you out to infect you.  You have no idea who the infector is.  

 

Would you rather...

 

Take a flight and sit beside the infector for the entire flight?

 

or...

 

Take a 7 day cruise and face the possibility that the infector might be on the same ship as you and they might find you at some point on the cruise?

 

In both cases all game players are required to wear masks. 

 

In the plane scenario no testing is performed and once your seatbelt is secured you are not allowed to move for the duration of the flight.  Your seatmate is allowed to cough, sneeze and breath heavily in your direction through their mask for the entire flight.  You cannot move.  You are potentially 18" away from them for the whole flight. 

 

In the cruise ship scenario everyone boarding the ship is tested.  No one who tests positive can board the ship.  No one is allowed to enter your cabin except you.  The rest of the time you are free to move around at your free will.  The infector, if they are able to sneak past the testers (unlikely) might find you but you are always free to move away and avoid them.

 

Would you prefer to take the hour flight or board a cruise ship for 7 days?

 

Edited October 31, 2020 by twangster