Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[Jeremiah1212]

24 minutes ago, verizon said:

Hooray!!! CDC just approved all vaccinated can sail by 4th of July.

 

Source?

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-stock-surges-after-plan-submitted-to-cdc-to-resume-us-cruises-in-july-2021-04-05

 

This is all I see and it's definitely not the green light. NCL has chosen to ignore the CSO and ask to move forward with 100% vaccinated cruises at reduced capacity. 

[TrulyBlonde]

15 minutes ago, verizon said:

CNBC just announced.

It seems the rule is 60% capacity.

I believe this was the request from NCL to begin opening US ports by 4th of July. Frank Del Rio wrote the letter to CDC. 

[Ken the cruiser]

Here's a more detailed article on the NCL request to CDC to restart cruising out of US ports starting July 4th.

 

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Submits Plan to CDC. Asks for July 4 Restart - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

[boscobeans]

4 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

I believe this was the request from NCL to begin opening US ports by 4th of July. Frank Del Rio wrote the letter to CDC. 

And the bean counters at RCCL have stated that at 50% they break even AND at 60% they begin making a profit...

 

[tallnthensome]

Anti -vaxxers won’t be sailing  anywhere as predicted .... 

[Jeremiah1212]

A question for those that are way more informed on these matters than I am. Does the CDC have to, or expected to, formally and publicly respond to this? This is the first instance I can recall of actual communication being sent to the CDC and made public by the sender. 

 

Valid counter arguments like the proof of vaccination being so informal, COVID surveillance and reporting on ships is here to stay, and that the CDC still needs a contingency plan for a worst case scenario occurring on a ship need addressed. I agree that truly 100% vaccinated cruises (crew and passengers, not the Celebrity 'fully vaccinated' minus crew perspective) is the way forward for now, but there are a million logistics to iron out in the mean time.

[markeb]

15 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

A question for those that are way more informed on these matters than I am. Does the CDC have to, or expected to, formally and publicly respond to this? This is the first instance I can recall of actual communication being sent to the CDC and made public by the sender. 

 

 

They'll almost certainly get a formal response. The CDC may or may not make that response public, but in this case the recipient probably will. And, yes, this is the first time I've heard of anyone actually sending a formal communication to the CDC.

[TrulyBlonde]

Look who is CC'd on the letter from Frank Del Rio. Let's play hardball 🙂

CC:
Hon. Xavier Becerra, Secretary of Health and Human Services
Mr. Ronald A. Klain, White House Chief of Staff
Mr. Jeffrey D. Zients, COVID Response Coordinator
Dr. Nathaniel Smith, Deputy Director for Public Health Services and Implementation Services, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Mr. Andrew M. Slavitt, Senior Advisor to the COVID Response Coordinator
Governor Ron DeSantis, State of Florida
Senator Marco Rubio, State of Florida
Senator Rick Scott, State of Florida
Senator Dan Sullivan, State of Alaska
Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, Miami-Dade County
Representative Carlos Gimenez, Florida’s 26th Congressional District
Representative Gus Bilirakis, Florida’s 12th Congressional District
Representative Maria Salazar, Florida’s 27th Congressional District
Representative Ted Deutch, Florida’s 22nd Congressional District
Representative Federica Wilson, Florida’s 24th Congressional District
Representative Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Florida’s 23rd Congressional District
Representative Mario Díaz-Balart, Florida’s 25th Congressional District

[CroozFanatic]

I think Royal will be out with something similar later today or tomorrow.

[markeb]

1 minute ago, TrulyBlonde said:

Look who is CC'd on the letter from Frank Del Rio. Let's play hardball 🙂

CC:
Hon. Xavier Becerra, Secretary of Health and Human Services
Mr. Ronald A. Klain, White House Chief of Staff
Mr. Jeffrey D. Zients, COVID Response Coordinator
Dr. Nathaniel Smith, Deputy Director for Public Health Services and Implementation Services, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Mr. Andrew M. Slavitt, Senior Advisor to the COVID Response Coordinator
Governor Ron DeSantis, State of Florida
Senator Marco Rubio, State of Florida
Senator Rick Scott, State of Florida
Senator Dan Sullivan, State of Alaska
Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, Miami-Dade County
Representative Carlos Gimenez, Florida’s 26th Congressional District
Representative Gus Bilirakis, Florida’s 12th Congressional District
Representative Maria Salazar, Florida’s 27th Congressional District
Representative Ted Deutch, Florida’s 22nd Congressional District
Representative Federica Wilson, Florida’s 24th Congressional District
Representative Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Florida’s 23rd Congressional District
Representative Mario Díaz-Balart, Florida’s 25th Congressional District

 

I'll argue this is the wrong thread to go too far into this, but...

 

This is what CLIA should have done 2-3 weeks ago when they made a public statement with no formal communication and the travel press took it up as the CDC denying their request. This is what a request normally looks like. It's not really hard ball as much as how the game is played by the game's rules. Apparently NCL hired someone competent. As opposed to CLIA...

 

Not a moderator, but I'd think this deserves it's own thread? Tying what NCL's proposing to what should X and RCG do?

[TrulyBlonde]

2 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

I'll argue this is the wrong thread to go too far into this, but...

 

This is what CLIA should have done 2-3 weeks ago when they made a public statement with no formal communication and the travel press took it up as the CDC denying their request. This is what a request normally looks like. It's not really hard ball as much as how the game is played by the game's rules. Apparently NCL hired someone competent. As opposed to CLIA...

 

Not a moderator, but I'd think this deserves it's own thread? Tying what NCL's proposing to what should X and RCG do?

Del Rio even cc'd Alaska on this one. About time. Yes, own thread necessary. thanks

[Crazy planning mom]

5 hours ago, BigAl94 said:

It's a long tunnel. As of 2 April, 83% of the American population are not fully vaccinated.

Here is updated information.

  23.2 percent of the adult population is full vaccinated and 40.2 percent of the adult population has had at least 1 dose.  Unlike the UK where people have to wait months for a second dose, in the US, you get your 2nd dose, 3-4 weeks later.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

[TeeRick]

On 4/3/2021 at 2:51 PM, hcat said:

Scary..esp for those who rely  upon belief that all is well.

hcat here is an update.  The US HHS has put J&J in control of the Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore and they will assume full responsibility for their own vaccine production.  It was also announced that the AZ vaccine would no longer be made there.  I find it unusual for HHS to do this rather than FDA.  But good news anyway.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/04/us-puts-jj-in-charge-of-plant-that-botched-covid-vaccine-removes-astrazeneca.html

[terrydtx]

2 hours ago, verizon said:

CNBC just announced.

It seems the rule is 60% capacity.

Until the CDC officially announces the change, what CNBC reports is meaningless. 

[terrydtx]

2 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Here's a more detailed article on the NCL request to CDC to restart cruising out of US ports starting July 4th.

 

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Submits Plan to CDC. Asks for July 4 Restart - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

After reading the request it looks promising that at least one major cruise line may be able to start up in the US much sooner, July 4th, than expected. NCL is willing to require that all guests must be fully vaccinated and operate at 60% capacity at first.  Covid vaccinations have not been approved for children age 12 and younger and the NCL request does not address this issue, will this mean no children under 12?  Plus at this point only Pfizer has been approved for children 12 to 18 years old.

Edited April 5, 2021 by terrydtx

[cruisemom42]

7 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

After reading the request it looks promising that at least one major cruise line may be able to start up in the US much sooner, July 4th, than expected. NCL is willing to require that all guests must be fully vaccinated and operate at 60% capacity at first.  Covid vaccinations have not been approved for children age 12 and younger and the NCL request does not address this issue, will this mean no children under 12?  Plus at this point only Pfizer has been approved for children 12 to 18 years old.

 

NCL has clarified that NO ONE unvaccinated can cruise, at least on these initial sailings. Their wording says something like "fully vaccinated minors are welcome to cruise".

[terrydtx]

30 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

NCL has clarified that NO ONE unvaccinated can cruise, at least on these initial sailings. Their wording says something like "fully vaccinated minors are welcome to cruise".

How do minors in the US get vaccinated when they have not been approved to do so? My sister has an NCL Hawaii cruise booked for her whole family in July and 2 of her grandkids are under 12 and 2 are in the 15 to 17 age group, so she is wondering what she will be able to do. Plus She  has 2 inside cabins booked for the grandkids which I bet NCL will eliminate if they go to 60% capacity and eliminate inside and OV category cabins.

 

If this request and new NCL protocol is accepted by the CDC, this could become the same model that all other cruise lines will have to adopt for the balance of this year. Could make for less crowded and quieter cruises this year without any minors.

Edited April 5, 2021 by terrydtx

[cruisemom42]

6 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

How do minors in the US get vaccinated when they have not been approved to do so? My sister has an NCL Hawaii cruise booked for her whole family in July and 2 of her grandkids are under 12 and 2 are in the 15 to 17 age group, so she is wondering what she will be able to do. Plus She  has 2 inside cabins booked for the grandkids which I bet NCL will eliminate if they go to 60% capacity and eliminate inside and OV category cabins.

 

If this request and new NCL protocol is accepted by the CDC, this could become the same model that all other cruise lines will have to adopt for the balance of this year. Could make for less crowded and quieter cruises this year without any minors.

 

Pfizer is already approved for 16 and up, I think. 

 

They have also announced efficacy results of near 100% in 12-15 year olds (which is the age group they started following the original trial) and plan to submit for approval of that age range ASAP.

[D C]

49 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

NCL has clarified that NO ONE unvaccinated can cruise, at least on these initial sailings. Their wording says something like "fully vaccinated minors are welcome to cruise".

Unvaccinated kids shouldn't be much of a PR issue for Celebrity.  Can't be more than a couple dozen under 18s on a typical cruise. 

[Crazy planning mom]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

hcat here is an update.  The US HHS has put J&J in control of the Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore and they will assume full responsibility for their own vaccine production.  It was also announced that the AZ vaccine would no longer be made there.  I find it unusual for HHS to do this rather than FDA.  But good news anyway.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/04/us-puts-jj-in-charge-of-plant-that-botched-covid-vaccine-removes-astrazeneca.html

Maybe, because there isnt a permanent FDA commissioner?

[NMTraveller]

4 hours ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

Source?

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-stock-surges-after-plan-submitted-to-cdc-to-resume-us-cruises-in-july-2021-04-05

 

This is all I see and it's definitely not the green light. NCL has chosen to ignore the CSO and ask to move forward with 100% vaccinated cruises at reduced capacity. 

I purchased NCL stock back when it dived on the previous CDC comments.  Now to take some profits.  CDC whiplash.  

 

I was wondering why we were all getting the vaccine if it did not work that well.  I guess it does work well.  Now to brush off the CDCs Impending Doom quote.

Edited April 5, 2021 by NMTraveller

[Charles4515]

1 hour ago, D C said:

Unvaccinated kids shouldn't be much of a PR issue for Celebrity.  Can't be more than a couple dozen under 18s on a typical cruise. 

I guess you have never been on a Celebrity cruise in the summer. I remember 600 kids on Celebrity Century in the Caribbean one July. Also many children on the Zenith and Summit cruises to Bermuda every July and August. 

[nocl]

5 hours ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

Source?

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-stock-surges-after-plan-submitted-to-cdc-to-resume-us-cruises-in-july-2021-04-05

 

This is all I see and it's definitely not the green light. NCL has chosen to ignore the CSO and ask to move forward with 100% vaccinated cruises at reduced capacity. 

The funny thing is this is exactly what the cruise lines should have done months ago instead of waiting for the technical documents.  There is nothings stopping them from doing this at anytime.

 

Now we see if they accept it, counter with some requirements (still probably require some agreements with the ports, and in depth CDC monitoring for example), or reject.  I expect the first or second. Provided the plan also included testing before and after, as well as distancing, masks, etc.  I expect the CDC will want those for at least the first few months.

 

Makes me wonder if we are starting to see a break in the united CLIA front.  NCL was the line that started to bring back crew members a few months ago but then changed their mind and sent them home.

Edited April 5, 2021 by nocl

[TrulyBlonde]

21 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

I guess you have never been on a Celebrity cruise in the summer. I remember 600 kids on Celebrity Century in the Caribbean one July. Also many children on the Zenith and Summit cruises to Bermuda every July and August. 

Exactly. I never cruise in the Summer with an exception because we had a week prior to closing on a new home and had never been to Bermuda. We took the Summit and it was packed with families in August. yuck.

[nocl]

51 minutes ago, NMTraveller said:

I purchased NCL stock back when it dived on the previous CDC comments.  Now to take some profits.  CDC whiplash.  

 

I was wondering why we were all getting the vaccine if it did not work that well.  I guess it does work well.  Now to brush off the CDCs Impending Doom quote.

The vaccine works very well.  The issue is that we are still in a pandemic.  The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines seems to deal with the E484K mutation (B.1.351 and B.1.1.28) pretty well.  Not so much with the AZ vaccine (showed 10% efficacy in a trial in South Africa against B.1.351).  Novavax demonstrated 60% efficacy and J&J 57%.  E484K has also shown up in a number of home grown variants in the US.

 

Now you have a new strain from India that includes not only the E484K mutation but anther major mutation as well.  No data there yet.

 

Some of the new variants are also proving to be more infectious and virulent (cause more serious cases) in those that are unvaccinated, including children.  As a result in several of the miswestern states the outbreaks are showing more people under 50 ending up with serious cases.

 

Now if everyone would get vaccinated so we can get the number of cases down while variants can be fairly well handled by the vaccines we have.  All it takes is one fully resistant variant to take us back to last year.

Edited April 5, 2021 by nocl